Topic: Something, something, something, technical analysis - page 10. (Read 31170 times)

Agreed,

for me the rising wedges shown in the first pic are each stage of the rise. It rises to the peak-ish, levels out then starts another rise. Each stage definitely runs out of steam, then we level off until the next rise.

For me, looking at the current rise as a whole, from where it started at around 450 there is no wedge forming at all, in fact the opposite. Volume is rising each rise on Huobi, and around stagnant on stamp.

Also 3 day moving average is about to cross for the first time since Feb.

Firm bull still here.

As this is being led by Huobi I don't see the current run running out of steam at all just yet.

and if you want to zoom further out and take the last two highs and the last two lows, we again have a rising converging diagonal:



The TA 101-ist, has to decide what kind of ranges are most useful to him and this requires common sense.

alternatively, looking at the run as a whole



the rise is diverging, not converging.

RSI on 4 hour chart is showing signs of negative divergence.

Bitcoin at $530 - RSI ~ 90
Bitcoin at $545 - RSI ~ 94
Bitcoin at $586 - RSI ~ 87
Bitcoin at $593 - RSI ~ 86

Shorter term (30 mins) chart indicators perhaps show things a little clearer that some kind of correction is likely on the cards, of course, price can still rise quite a bit as these indicators continue to trend lower, before the canary finally chokes, so to say:

I agree. The rising wedge(s?) in particular does not seem to support the bull run going much farther. Not to mention the fact that daily MACD is at approximately the same level as the peak of the post-bubble bulltrap (379-998), and daily RSI shows we're overbought atm (at least I think so, still a noob to these indicators so someone correct me if I'm wrong).



Also, an interesting fact is that the (initial, at least) wedge closes at $647, which is just a few dollars above SMA200. Coincidence?

Maybe. Or maybe we just rest for a day or two before exploding north again.

Your charts also demonstrate that Huobi kicks off proceedings, each time, and that Bitstamp follows.

With regards to your thoughts on whether the rally was running out of steam, I would say that we seem to have a bit of a closing diagonal formation occurring that might suggest the bullish sentiment being met with exhaustion. Since I only came back in the trade at $571, I am out again now at $584. Far greater probability of the market reversing over my toes than going much further in my favour at this point.

Negative divergence continues to raise it's head on the 4hr and shorter indicators (RSI, CMF) as volume continues to drop with each successive peak. I say we have had the top, or that the final top will be just a few dollars more.

Well I'm full BTC. But I closed out my extra leveraged longs for the same reason. If we consolidate under $600 I will leverage up again, because a rally never ends without a large flame out. So a consolidation at these levels would signal a run to $630+ in my books. Then I would really be watching for exhaustion. Rinse, repeat.

Yes, I'm sure I know the feeling... but I realized also that, right now, I can't pick up with certainty whether we're done yet with this rally, so the best I can do is set (mentally) a stop sell that makes sense to me, and wait whether it comes to that, i.e. while I prefer to go "predictive momentum" usually, this time, I'll have to go "full momentum"... cue: never go full momentum.jpg :P

As most always, we are in agreement.

Although we are entering the zone where I am watching for weakness like a hawk. Finex is leveraged at close to 19 million (down to 17.5), and the rates have skyrocketed, meaning, in my opinion, that fiat is getting tapped out there.

How much is sitting in Houbi on the sidelines? How much can secretly get into that exchange. How much is sitting in Stamp and Finex, untouched? These would be great inside information.  

Can we expect new fiat this week? I am a little skeptical, but hell we are in a full on bull run, so maybe I shouldn't be.

Thanks for the recap. I can't find the post in particular (admit have not looked very hard) but remember you saying that you would not enter until sure of a reversal (and if I remember correctly that was at least in the 500s if not 600s in your opinion at the time) because you were in profit anyway so it didn't really matter.

Just trying to understand people's changing perspectives. The posts you made since (that you mention above) explain...

Not really. The entire rally (from $450) started, within <15 min of each other, on stamp and huobi simultaneously, with them taking turns in getting new (relative, of course) volume highs after the breakout. I take that as a reasonably organic start.

What happened afterwards is another matter, but I'm not going to let the old adage that we need fresh fiat guide my trading mechanically. I'd suggest taking profits if and when it becomes apparent that the current rally ran out of steam, not earlier, unless you know with some certainty ahead of time the inflection point peak. But as always: different trading styles, different recommended actions.

According to my favorite techniques (fibhorn and ratio analysis), 605 or 615~ seem like reasonable targets for either local tops or major ones for the rally from the triangle breakout, though an experimental resistance line at 620 or daily SMA200 (currently at 640) could also be it.
Long-term support line currently at $470, if it's tested and holds I guess the trend reversal will be confirmed 100% (not making this just a bulltrap or Wave B of C (same thing I suppose)).

Houbi is in control because Stamp and Finex are 95%+ traders who have money on sidelines to invest or trade with. 

We need fresh fiat to the exchanges for Houbi not to lead.

You got in about the same time as me, but you have managed to hold out for around double the increases that I emptied into my Bitstamp account....

....However, are you not of the opinion that things are beginning to look a bit shit?

4hr CMF showing negative divergence, 4hr RSI showing negative divergence, 4hr Stochastic RSI maxed and pointing/crossing down, very low volume after we have had the first mammoth red candle which dwarfed the green candles around it, at least on the shorter time frames ($586-$560 within 5 minutes which entailed some 1500 BTC sell off within that time frame)?

There could be a few pennies more in this rally, but as annoyed as I am by not getting back in at $540, there is absolutely no way would I risk a long position at this point in time. For me to be encouraged to long right now, there would have to be a shit storm of buying pressure to come in and take Bitcoin at these prices. Is it going to happen? (if it does, no doubt I will be asleep)

Zooming out, the chart still looks good, but with so many traders relying on 4Hr parameters, I could certainly see the buying pressure ease off for now. To what extent selling pressure/profit taking sets in, remains to be seen.

Edit: Large walls set up and getting chewed up as I type. Seems like big break out is on...bought back in on impulse at $571.....hope I don't regret it when I look at charts in morning.

Edit 2: Started on Huobi AGAIN. This is all coming from China. Every single time almost. Worrying?

No, not really. Short recap, maybe:

I wrote a long post about the bearish triangle variants on April 25th, see here. That one guided me as far as the time frame was concerned -- convergence scenario #1 was predicted for late May at the latest, and the actual breakout was May 20, so it was pretty accurate. At the time of that post, I was still rather bearish, expecting we'd probably see a breakout to the downside. Maybe that's what you have in mind when you say "earlier than I planned"?

On May 16th I posted about a new observation that, based on MFI (a money flow oscillator), it looked like we had finally found sufficient buying support at the given price level. See the post here. From that point on I was, as I wrote, "cautiously bullish".

By May 20, MFI had continued to develop exactly as I hoped it would, so I didn't hesitate much when the breakout happened. I'm in since about 460, not tempted to sell (yet).

Short term prediction:

it will test and bounce $630 tomorrow
it will break $630 somewhere the 28th or 29th, or in a bearish case, June 1st.

I think the chances of this short term prediction happening are about 80%

Thanks Mat! What about you, Oda Krell?

And here we are.

If you are talking to me:

I had buy-ins lined up at $360-$400. As Bitcoin stagnated in the $430-$450 range, I was waiting for convincing confirmation of breach of either of the long term support or resistance trendlines which were converging. In the end, it was the resistance line which was convincingly breached, and I went long at $460. Suspecting a pull-back, I sold at $520. Realising that I had probably made a mistake, was waiting on breach of final long term resistance line before deciding upon whether to re-enter market. Had I been awake at 4am UK time, I would have re-entered market at $540, but I was asleep. When I awoke, Bitcoin was topping out at $586. I have since 'dabbled' with a long position which I have since closed as I have decided that taking a position at the moment would only be gambling. If Bitcoin can take out the $586 high, again, on convincing volume, then I may take another long, but the higher up this vertical break-out we get, the greater the probability of a brutal correction there will be. I wish hadn't closed my $460 long position, but too many times in the past, have I failed to take profits and then had the market turn on me, sometimes viciously.