Topic: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious - page 13. (Read 36049 times)

I traded the high 0.0113 and re-entered at 0.01. I am and have been 100% in LTC since $6.50. I invest based on fundamentals and my conviction. I am not really a trader.

I think it may push higher from here, but even if it dips to 0.009, I am happy holding this position, because all BTC holders who want to pay for goods & services have to come to LTC over the next year or so, else they won't be able to afford to transact. Speculation in BTC can of course continue on exchanges at low transaction fees because these aren't blockchain transactions, but if you hold your balances always on exchanges, eventually you will lose your money due to hacks and thefts.

LTC should rise over the next year or so to at least 0.05. It will likely overshoot to something ridiculous such as 0.2, due to way greater fool mass manias and speculation play out.

So 0.01 or 0.009 is splitting hairs. You run the risk of chasing it and never getting on board.

Bitcoin will never get SegWit, Lightning Networks, nor larger blocks. Anyone still talking/writing about that are wasting their breath/fingertips.

Right now we are in the attitude readjustment phase where Bitcoiners slowly pour cold water on their face and wake up to reality.

My prediction that BTC would remain range bound until LTC catches up, is so far proving to be true.

The simple reason for this is that the market is not stupid. The market knows that Bitcoin can't ever get any scaling improvements to its protocol. Bitcoin will forever be relegated to small blocks, because it was intended that Bitcoin be the most reliable (i.e. no experimental shit) settlement layer for the power brokers of finance. As the fee per transaction rises to $10 on Bitcoin over this year (and let's guess $100 per transaction by 2019), then most of us will not transact on Bitcoin any more. We will transact on Litecoin. And Blockstream will transfer its efforts to Litecoin, which will give Litecoin legitimacy.

So Bitcoin can't move higher until it is assured that Litecoin will provide the scaling solutions that our ecosystem needs so that blockchains can begin to invade the mainstream world of payments systems and fractional reserve banking. Upthread I explained why Ripple is dogshit, so I expect once it becomes clear that Litecoin will have Lightning Networks coming, then Ripple will collapse. So the smart money should be moving from Ripple to Litecoin.

Note the current jump to $12 looks like it might be overheated and too fast, so I'd be cautious about buying too much too fast. Average in your buys in case we get a dip, but do get some now (nibble) if you don't have any because price can run higher yet. Yet I remain adamant that Litecoin is easily going to exceed $30 and probably $100 before the end of this year, unless somehow SegWit activation is defeated. At the moment SegWit signaling is at 70.8% for those blocks in the last 21 hours. We are very close.

Some myopic people haven't realized that Litecoin needs scaling because it will be receiving all the excess volume from Bitcoin that can't fit in Bitcoin's small blocks, and because the volume will increase exponentially with Lightning Networks enabling private fractional reserve banking and the banks will evangelize Litecoin ecoins to the masses. Litecoin either grabs this opportunity, else Ethereum will take this role with its coming Raiden clone of Lightning Networks. But Blockstream is not going to let that happen. Bobby Lee of BTCC is the brother of Charlie Lee the creator of Litecoin. BTCC will push SegWit activation over the 75% threshold with its GPU farm that is mining Ethereum, if need be.

Also myopic people don't realize that block size increases can't scale because due to the equation on orphan rate, orphan rates increases exponentially as block size increases. Exponential worsening is the antithesis of scaling for anyone who understands math and computer science. I also explained why Xthin is no solution to this dilemma.

It would have a positive affect yes, but $100 cmon. Get a grib.
If SegWit wouldnt revive and moon litecoin, nothing will.
Litecoin moons now because of SegWit not because of Litecoin.
Enough said. This wont last.
Enjoy and get out early.

what happened to their price with the Segwit?

also others may have it, but Litecoin would be the "biggest one" and now people know what SegWit is after the hard fork issue, so will be easier to affect the price

Newbies gonna be noob. Some other altcoins have already SegWit. Wake up.

Don´t sell your LTC below 100$!

I suppose the 75% was chosen because Litecoin can tolerate more risk than Bitcoin. But I don't pretend to know all the politics.

Any way, it crossed 70% now!


The above is for the blocks in the past 21 hours, so it is slightly forward looking as compared to the 24 hour requirement.

The huge jump in price will be when the Bitcoiners realize that Bitcoin is never going to get scaling, thus they won't be able to transact any more on Bitcoin (will be too expensive) and thus Litecoin will become the transaction coin that everybody is using. This still hasn't sunk into their hard heads yet.

Jihan Wu is a bitch, i want to see segwit get activated just to see him cry.

Btw, why does LTC's segwit need 75% to activate while BTC needs 95%? I mean who and how were such thresholds decided? Are those decided by the creators of the coins and hard coded the same way 21 million coins are set since the beginning? what would it take to change the actual threshold? would changing that threshold make it into an altcoin?

More discussion.

It is interesting to compare March 11 to today:

https://web.archive.org/web/20170405041023/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

https://web.archive.org/web/20170311190046/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

The largest percentage gainer of significance which not signaling SegWit is Antpool which is run by Bitmain, i.e. Jihan Wu. So that is probably clearly Bitmain using their A3s as a weapon instead of selling them into the free market.

LTC1BTC is the other antagonist with significant gains in hashrate.

So those are two main enemies that have to be defeated.

Note Litecoinpool which has nearly doubled their hashrate and they signal SegWit.

The fight is on!

While the site we were checking before says currently 68.40% for past 24 hours, this other site says 69.20% for past 19 hours (so that means it is still increasing):

https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools#segwit

BTCC will probably make their move as it gets closer to 75%.

I bet Jihan Wu has commandeered all his applicable resources to mining LTC and dumping it on exchanges to try to defeat the SegWit activation:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/litecoin/difficulty

The LTC miners I had linked to say that he pulled all the supply of A3s off the market so he could mine with them.

Smart money hopefully continues to eat up all the LTC he dumps and hopefully the supply of A4s available is sufficient to overtake Jihan's A3 manufacturing rate.

I will stand by my presumption that Bitcoin was created for a certain purpose and no one will be allowed to turn it into a stupid democracy. Follow the link I already provided. The discussion is getting mighty interesting in the past hour.

Well if the GPU miners are king makers, maybe they will anoint the coin which doesn't cut them off? Where else they gonna mine? Zcash?

Is Charles Hoskinsen's IOHK working for Barry Silbert on ETC? Charles has capable talent on his team.

Btw, my estimation (after some study) is Casper (ETH's promised PoS) will not be entirely sound. Whether that matters or not to the near-term outcome, I can't entirely ascertain.

Ethereum does have a lot of development. No one has answered me on what development ETC has?

Hey how did you snap that image of my gf and me for your avatar? You must be NSA.

We are at near 70%, it's so close.  A single small time whale could push it to 75%+, then we would see if Jihan and co strike back.

In general I agree with the importance of LTC in your thesis of a blocked BTC, but how does UASF fit in?

What if UASF gets approved and BTC gets segwit? wouldn't that undermine LTC's segwit+LN value proposition?

Yep, their cap will be 210-230mil. No POS, since they don't have capable developers to deliver ETH's promise. Therefore, the dapp/smart contract capability is just a gimmick for that project.

Hmm creeping towards 70% they might have to just cry into their pillows and accept defeat? 

I believe Jihan Wu is using any diversionary excuse he can to make sure SegWit isn't activated any where, including Litecoin.

In other words, I think he tries to create political division, so that no protocol modifications can happen. He pretends is for things, but this is just diversionary IMO.

He wants to maximize the fees they can gouge from the power brokers of Bitcoin and/or he is a power broker. The link I provided explains the math of the game theory involved that is driving the stalemate.

They seem to have become more aggressive in past day or two on proposals, because they probably want to try to pull support away from Litecoin's attempt to activate SegWit. Erik of ShapeShift may just be a pawn, or he may be aware of and part of the manipulations. I haven't tried to dig on that aspect.

But we'll see how it turns out...

Yes i have seen that you had mentioned it. I am going to look furhter into it tomorrow. I also think that SegWit2mb is quite interesting. Combine BU and SegWit. Jihan Wu and the owner of Shapeshift are supporting it. I am going to do more research on this propossal as well.