Topic: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious - page 16. (Read 36099 times)

ltc is actually making me emotional recently, its obviously undervalued but not exempt from manipulation.

i have been kicking myself repeatedly since trading 4 figures at 3.90 into BTC & it hasnt stopped rising!!

while BTC has been up & down, but mostly down.

im literally sickened, and been having horrific nightmares.

this level of manipulation is borderline unbearable, at least to me

Uh oh:

https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/631ffe/pools_that_block_litecoin_development/dfr3weo/

Seems some people might not understand capital, game theory, economics, etc.

Thanks to someone who passed this along to me, we can see that perhaps the Litecoin community is starting to take action:

https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/631ffe/pools_that_block_litecoin_development/

Note I also commented there.

However, seems to be some BS excuse from one of the pools. Somebody is getting paid off?

You are a trader. I am a value investor (with a very strong technological slant).

That is why I missed for example a good trade on Ripple, because I don't appreciate Ripple's fundamental value proposition (as I understand it to be, which may be an incomplete understanding).

My greatest value is as a creator and programmer so I shouldn't be doing this activity.

But I had a need to do this, to turn my 10 BTC into potentially 50BTC which can aid the funding of my altcoin project (given I am not doing an ICO). Also this analysis was an offshoot of diversionary analysis I needed to do anyway to make sure I understand the Nash ideal money value proposition of Bitcoin so as to understand how my project fits into the big picture.

If I disappear from speculation discussion, you'll know it is because I am head in sand on my primary vocation, although I notice I am finding it too tempting lately to go off on too many polymath-like tangents. I really need to discipline myself asap. For example, I was tempted to go off and research Ripple right now to get to the essence of it, but I decided not to.

They certainly are fractal and I had simply zoomed into hourly for extra detail - shorter term details tend to propagate up to longer scales if the pattern persists.

There are frequently three distinct, supporting trendlines - a third trendline was broken on 03/16 at about the 1165 level and that was followed by a major decline. So far the first hourly and daily uptrend lines have been broken, but the second has not yet fallen (although it is close now). Regardless of trendlines the next price target is between 1125-1130 and if it cannot get through there, it is probably going to decline into the range you propose starting with 1070.

You seem to forecast further out than I'm comfortable doing. I've grown to like waiting for the charts to be fairly definitive.


Should be fun!

Yeah it probably wont, nothing else seems to have it's crazy.

Edit: apologies I misread your statement. Lol, I thought you were insinuating that Litecoin needed to slow down first. A delirium moment on my part. Trying to do too much too fast. I agree the Ripple bubble may bleed into the LTC rise.

Why does LTC need to slow down before the stampede? I thought it already slowed down for the past years and again when it paused under $7.

When trains leave the station, they don't go in reverse to go pick up the stragglers.

Seems right now is the wall of worry and dissonance. So isn't the slowing down right now? Your comment is example of the complacency and thus being already slowed down.

If the fundamental value didn't exist, I'd be worried. But I am not worried because Litecoin is tremendously undervalued if my hypothesis is correct. So I am just waiting for other people to figure this out and try to stampede to catch up. Everybody now is chasing a train which already left the station, because the fundamentals are what they are (unless my hypothesis is flawed or incomplete).

Once Ripple slows down I believe LTC will be next big alt to make a new ATH, an enormous amount of money is flowing through crypto at the moment, trying go "get off the grid" I think LTC is a wise choice to plant a few BTC seeds in and watch them grow  

There is something very strange going on with Ripple. Its features are entirely incompatible with sound banking. So it can't be for banking. Whereas LN on Litecoin will be compatible with sound private fractional reserves in alignment with Nash's ideal money concept (with the failure mode being long-term when Bitcoin becomes controlled by one whale due to concentrating effect of fungible finance).

I wonder if Ripple is a bet on corrupt fiat system finding a way to force all public funds and banks into a system which self-destructs? Some people seem to think Ripple is more compatible with governments and laws?

I really can't find any logic in it at all except that speculators will buy anything that the other dumb speculators will associate progress even though it isn't.

I'd be very wary of holding Ripple as it appears to me to be an extremely volatile greater fool speculation (raping) tool. Ripple is having its 2nd hump adoption (similar chart pattern to LTC).

And I think that is the utility of Ripple. It is way to separate more fools from their capital. So get on board and join the musical chairs raping party. Just pray you get out in time.

Markets are fractal meaning patterns in time within larger patterns within larger time.

Your chart above is afaics (or let's say IMO) only looking at the deadcat bounce off the $888 level. My comment which you quoted is referring to the wave pattern since the peak last month at $1280.

You have an ascending wedge on your latest chart, and thus afaik more often break downwards, not upwards. I see BTC hugging the bottom channel line of the wedge, and this to me indicates weakness.

I still think BTC is range bound until LTC catches up. I believe it is going to be epic.

Until you realize there is no other choice for Bitcoiners. And once they realize they have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to increase their proportion of Bitcoins by a factor of 5X or 10X. The revaluation of Litecoin might be rather swift, maybe even a stampede.

There is some cognitive dissonance involved. Most Bitcoiners will be too late to come to the realization. But markets are always like that. The majority is always late.

Litecoin's rise may or may not be swift. There is a lot of apprehension and most don't yet understand what is going on. But I do think the reality will kick in and the economic decision will be made rather swiftly by the smart money. FOMO might kick in soon if Litecoin exceeds $10. Yet with Bitcoiners there is this like stubbornness to not invest in anything but Bitcoin, that sort of prevents them from the FOMO effect, yet enough of us peel away from the dumb majority and make fortunes trading back and forth.

Litecoin already pushed back up to $7.50 some 8 hours ago. The base is building and breakouts will be attempted and eventually it will breakout in earnest.

The speculators are so sensitive to this:

http://litecoinblockhalf.com/segwit.php

I thought they might wait for it to exceed 60%, but apparently they realized what I been writing about. (not meaning they got it from me, I mean the market figured it out)

This is a wall of worry, but the smart money understands there is no other option. I explained all the economic logic upthread.

The only other possibility would be that Blockstream dies. And I think that is not a very likely outcome. I already explained the economics of the mining ASICs on Litecoin and why it appears to be inevitable that SegWit will activate on Litecoin because of those economics.

Perhaps some other groups are fighting very hard to buy up A4s and not vote for SegWit, meaning they want to destroy their capital in order to prevent Litecoin from getting SegWit and scaling. Lol. Let's see how successful that will be for them, if that is the case. Unless the antagonists can earn enough to pay off the cost of the mining equipment during the pump! And that might be why the Chinaman has to keep the price capped until the SegWit support reaches a sufficient level (or they might be selling LTC to buy A4s ). There are probably other game theories in play also, such as certain players might be incentivized to signal SegWit only at certain price levels, given implications on their other mining operations, i.e. at a certain threshold then they may calculate that LN is more profitable for them on Litecoin and than on Bitcoin (or preventing any scaling  on Bitcoin or a clone).

Both of you have what you think are good intentions, but you fail to recognize the most salient fact.

When you two are blind to the most salient fact, then all your other conclusions are unfortunately ignorant nonsense. Not be disrespectful, but you really need to pay attention.

If anyone can mutate the main blockchain, then the money is no longer immune to manipulation. And thus it is no longer a stable metric which achieves the absolutely critical goals of Nash's ideal money which is what gives crypto-currency is reason to exist in the first place.

I know this is very difficult for you to wrap your mind around, because you think adoption = success, but you are mathematically incorrect.

Read again very carefully the two posts I linked in the quote below. Click the links within those two post and click the links in the posts that you clicked to. In other words make sure you understand all the detailed reasoning.

In finance, the tail doesn't wag the dog, rather in finance it is always the stable value of the reserves which determines whether person who is providing the finance has an accurate mathematical estimate of the quality of the reserves and thus whether they are maximizing their ROI. And in finance, the most valuable set of reserves dominates any system with less value. Until you understand finance and understand how MPEx made his million "Buttcoins" by simply providing liquidity to the speculation power brokers, then you understand nothing about money.

So if you mutate Bitcoin, you remove all its value. Period. That is why the whales will never allow you to do so, and @dinofelis and I analyzed in great detail how small blocks enables the whales to destroy any miners who attempt to fork Bitcoin. You can't mutate Bitcoin, because the tail doesn't wag the dog. Also small blocks keeps the riff-raff out of Bitcoin, because democracy is a manipulation given that the cost of voting (i.e. politics) is not free. By allowing users to vote on Bitcoin's changes, it is the same as turning Bitcoin into a fiat system that will be manipulated into another hell. We've been there done that all over the world and totally fucked up our world with it. We can instead put that clusterfuck into Litecoin and then the discipline can be maintained with Bitcoin's financial dominance of Litecoin.

There is a way to get scaling and that is to mutate Litecoin. And approximating 9/10th of the value created by scaling Litecoin will end up back in Bitcoin (after Litecoin's price rises back to $100 since it is so highly undervalued given it is the only option for moving forward). So there is absolutely no justifiable reason for your idiocy and squabbling. It is pure ignorance, that's all. Please rectify your ignorance so we can move forward.

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I think we're probably all in agreement that Ripple isn't the disruptor technology that Bitcoin is. We're all here because we saw the potential of BTC to strip power away from banks and government and so yes, personally, I'm a bit of BTC ideologue.

Putting that aside however and thinking realistically, I don't see banks going anywhere in the short - medium term. As a speculator/investor, I'd like to play both sides so that I win either way or hopefully BOTH at the same time.

Ripple is the tech that banks need to remain somewhat relevant going forward in today's globalized economy. Bitcoin is not. Bitcoin is threatening to banks. We have had consistent news for 2 years of dozens of banks signing on to test Ripple. Now we have Japan. It's my belief the Ripple will be the one and there are too many banks, and big investors backing it for me to ignore. If Ripple MCap. grows to what BTC is currently, then we're talking $.50 XRP. We know what size this industry is and if Ripple adoption is widespread then $1 XRP wouldn't be out of the question at all.

@iamnotback, I appreciate the info on Ripple you shared. Perhaps that is the end game and Ripple is fatally flawed. Honestly, though, I'm not emotionally attached to it and in the end we want decentralized crypto to win anyways. In the mean time though it's like @miscreanity said... it can't be ignored.

Not necessarily wrong, likely just incomplete - as all of our models are. There's no way to keep up without computer assistance.

I use Bitfinex numbers for Bitcoin, and on 03/25 (I dislike the American style of M/D/Y but am accustomed to it over D/M/Y) the low of 888.20 was in which was just a few dollars away from the bottom of the accelerated uptrend channel at 885.40 (uncannily, that price was a Gann level as well on the weekly charts and Bitcoin bottomed almost exactly at the cross where those two lines intersected). Since then, we can see the hourly chart has a consistent stair-step appearance with a rise followed by consolidation and little correction, if any - something that I've seen a number of times with markets that are throwing off weak hands prior to acceleration by denying (re)entry points (notably gold & silver in 2011).

For these kinds of markets, keep a core position for hodling and some funds in reserve to buy on the first or second dip after a spike that breaks out of the previous range. Only use the reserve amount to trade with, and wait for a major decline that is typically >10% to even consider selling from core holdings. The spike after such a drop is the best time to sell between a 1/3-2/3 of holdings; you may only get ~80% of the high but you have much more solid confirmation. I would also avoid aggressively trading any beyond daily levels, 1-4 hour is good but be attentive.



As each of the projection lines is crossed, the price generally moves toward the top of the next channel or its midpoint. The blue line is a channel border and the dashed lines are channel midpoints.


Yes, the trend toward 2000+ in which the top of the accelerated channel is approximately 1406 for month end. If that is exceeded, I'd expect another acceleration.

We'll know soon if the ~800-1150 range will hold. I'm looking at 1125-1130 and 1164 as resistance for the next few days.

ETHBTC is very interesting right now. The end of the month saw BTCUSD close at the top numbers while ETHBTC closed barely above monthly support. I'm still holding because any announcement could send it to a multiple, and my positions are diversified, but where is that ETHBTC going? Is it staying in BTC? Maybe it's going to LTC? Ripple?

Ripple has doubled again thanks to beating all others to the punch with payment channels. It seems as though the effort to peg the unit to $0.01 has been abandoned. The long-term downtrend line has been breached and, if it holds for the week, will be decisively broken to the upside with a target of 0.00007-0.0001 or higher. Aside from a few interesting aspects, I don't like Ripple any more than you, but it can't be ignored.

The most important thing to observe now is the crypto-crypto vs fiat-crypto flow. The LTCBTC flow certainly looks to push LTC higher. However, it still does not seem to be at the expense of BTC, which is most likely due to the fiat-crypto flow; as you pointed out, Bitcoin is the gateway to the crypto environment and funds will flow through BTCUSD to others. That process is ramping up quickly - each of these wild rises in exchange rates is similar to a pot of water coming to a boil as the phase transition is approached.

Due to these flows, I think we could easily see BTC and LTC rise together. LTC will simply rise faster, assuming the hypothesis holds.


Yes, LTC is the closest drop-in replacement for BTC should such an infrastructure shift become necessary.

Edit: while posting, Ripple hit 0.00007 and subsequently pulled back below the 0.00005 level. I'd look to sell between 0.00006/7 on a bounce, then wait and observe.

Somehow managed to get in right at the 710ish I expected, now it all comes down to LTC being able to maintain this uptrend. Fundamentals look good and graph looks good to me too.


The fact that LTC limits itself to be a BTC clone is a feature, and the small differences which make it more realistic to get segwit enabled are what makes it a good candidate to actually get used in transactions along with its "original alt" network effect.

As far as how high it will go.. who knows, but better be holding some LTC for the time being.

Pedigree is a good way to put it! I agree, it's extremely important and why something like Vertcoin (anothe SegWit alt) still doesn't have a hope in hell. LTC really is the perfect candidate. It's a God-send for lack of a better word.

I'm completely with you here, hence why I shifted some BTC to LTC. I think the people listening to your analysis and realising this will be laughing very soon. If this pans out you better put up a tipping address!

i think 0.12 for litecoin at this point is a bit far fetched. it doesn't have SegWit yet and there is no other "good news" for it either. if there were we could see something happen but there needs to be some driving force apart from the pumpers pumping.

and so far pumpers pumping are the only force.

All in in LTC. LOL its gonna moon if this guys analysis is accurate. Dash made .12 can LTC do it too?

Wow this rule is really great. I completely agree.
When everyone was too HYPED like "DISASTER" some people think its opportunity.
I love this phase of economy, its not fair all right, its manipulative, yes, but it works for wise.

Almost nailed the top again:


Waiting for a little correction to 710ish to get back in. Now that it's confirmed f2pool will maintain his signaling i'll be taking less risks. The graph is showing a nice uptrend already.

We'll maybe see a nice dip at $10 dollars because all the smart people that bought at 1 dollar will be seeing x10 gains, too succulent to not drop some.

@iamnotback your theory of a monolitic bitcoin with a more flexible litecoin makes sense, also Charlie Lee is pro segwit, pro core, pro blockstream etc himself which is good.

The thing is, what about UASF? what if bitcoin enables segwit through UASF anyway?