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Topic: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious - page 12. (Read 36103 times)

hero member
Activity: 665
Merit: 500
I posit a reason that Bitmain's surrogate pools will stop blocking SegWit on Litecoin soon.

If you read the entire linked thread, you will catch up on a lot of the details as to why I am nearly certain Bitcoin is going to remain small blocks and never get scaling.



as Satoshi (aka Nash) intended its equilibrium game theory to be a clusterfuck of politics insuring the immutability of the protocol which is what gives Bitcoin its trust and value.

What did I miss?

Nash?

I can't continue providing links to every thing I write all over the place. But one more time, go read this thread and also this post.

Thanks, found this:
http://www.coindesk.com/did-john-nash-help-invent-bitcoin/
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
Litecoin will move up again when SegWit signaling moves closer to 75%. Right now at 68.4%, when it creeps up above 70% I might take a small long position.
hero member
Activity: 663
Merit: 501
Ohh and Buy support is over 2300 BTC now. we go sideways for a few hours then the next leg up. IMO
hero member
Activity: 663
Merit: 501
^^ Do you watch buy support? It's been building from a low of 1600 this morning to over 2100 BTC now

Thanks I didn't and I should have. I'm not a professional trader. Otherwise I wouldn't have chickened out and sold. My acumen is on analysis of the technology, economics, and game theory. Also I am reasonably good at identify the major trends.

Any way, I re-entered LTC when it moved back above the bottom of the wedge. I am in a solid HODL stance now. I will stop looking at the chart. I will not trade it any more. To $50 or bust.

I am far from a professional trader, professional procrastinator for sure. I too got back in just under .01 and exited about the same time you did.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
I posit a reason that Bitmain's surrogate pools will stop blocking SegWit on Litecoin soon.

If you read the entire linked thread, you will catch up on a lot of the details as to why I am nearly certain Bitcoin is going to remain small blocks and never get scaling.



as Satoshi (aka Nash) intended its equilibrium game theory to be a clusterfuck of politics insuring the immutability of the protocol which is what gives Bitcoin its trust and value.

What did I miss?

Nash?

I can't continue providing links to every thing I write all over the place. But one more time, go read this thread and also this post.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
^^ Do you watch buy support? It's been building from a low of 1600 this morning to over 2100 BTC now

Thanks I didn't and I should have. I'm not a professional trader. Otherwise I wouldn't have chickened out and sold. My acumen is on analysis of the technology, economics, and game theory. Also I am reasonably good at identify the major trends.

Any way, I re-entered LTC when it moved back above the bottom of the wedge. I am in a solid HODL stance now. I will stop looking at the chart. I will not trade it any more. To $50 or bust.
hero member
Activity: 663
Merit: 501
^^ Do you watch buy support? It's been building from a low of 1600 this morning to over 2100 BTC now
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
It bounced back up to the bottom of the wedge and was repelled on the LTC-BTC chart. Yet on the LTC-USD chart, it already moved back up into the wedge after just barely dipping below.

BTC is running strong as the market thinks @Gmaxwell has outsmarted Bitmain and that SegWit will get activated eventually on Bitcoin or that at least there will be no fork on Bitcoin. But I think this is premature enthusiasm because I pointed out that Bitmain has probably outsmarted Blockstream (go to other thread to see all the details).

I think we have to let the current delusions run their course, because it will become apparent that Litecoin is the only option.

I don't know how far we will dip here. It might be over already, except I see the volume was very anemic on that bounce back up to the bottom of the wedge. So it looks like the odds are we will probably see some more downside. But I speculate it won't be the blood bath I was fearing and I expect 30 hours from now we might possibly see some new action on rising signaling percentage.

I am still trying to decide at what price I will re-enter.
hero member
Activity: 665
Merit: 500

 as Satoshi (aka Nash) intended its equilibrium game theory to be a clusterfuck of politics insuring the immutability of the protocol which is what gives Bitcoin its trust and value.

What did I miss?

Nash?
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
Everything went red candles, happens every time BTC spikes. nothing to see here.

So many litecoin baghodlers lol. Litecoin goes up because of SegWit, not because of Litecoin. Enjoy.
For now...

Uhum XRP uhum..  Roll Eyes
hero member
Activity: 663
Merit: 501
Everything went red candles, happens every time BTC spikes. nothing to see here.
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1001
If it holds above .0094 before I go to bed, I'll just hold on to my bag, and I'll probably wake up and find it's crashed to .0065  Cheesy seems to just be a dip because buttcoin mooned?
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
Please tell me how is LTC not about to have a massive breakout to the upside (or to the downside?) within 6 hours or less?



Odds are better than 50% for a upside breakout but can even be a false downside with a pullback to the upside:

http://thepatternsite.com/st.html

I sold my LTC. It broke down out of the symmetric wedge. Now we have to see if it is a false breakdown with a pullback. Otherwise it is headed back to 0.0075 or below. The market apparently is very doubtful, so maybe we have to pullback and reload.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
Please tell me how is LTC not about to have a massive breakout to the upside (or to the downside?) within 6 hours or less?



Odds are better than 50% for a upside breakout but can even be a false downside with a pullback to the upside:

http://thepatternsite.com/st.html
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
The SegWit signaling has fallen back to 68 - 69%. One could postulate that all spare capacity for mining LTC was already brought onboard with the recent price increase. And that Bitmain will gradually eat away at that by producing more L3s which they keep for themselves to mine on LTC and block SegWit. The competitors may not have much resources as Bitmain, or just the fact that the L3 is twice as efficient as the A4 competition. I am not sure if that is the only scenario though. Maybe BTCC hasn't yet unleashed their GPU farm on LTC because perhaps they want to wait for a higher price. Maybe they want to stimulate one more price pump before making their move. There have been hacking attacks that have moved hashrate to different pools. So I don't know if a similar attack has been employed on LTC pools. I noticed some significant change in the LTC pool distribution compared to yesterday.

https://web.archive.org/web/20170406082911/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

https://web.archive.org/web/20170405041023/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

I had the thought that even if SegWit doesn't get activated, Litecoin has 4X more capacity in its blocks than Bitcoin, so it will have lower transaction fees. Yet I don't know if that would be compelling enough without real scaling.

Edit: Okay I was mistaken in thinking the activation period was only 24 hours. It is 2 weeks:

https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/63nb70/how_long_does_it_need_to_be_over_75_before/

Edit#2: Ah I see it must be a specific retarget period!

To be technical, ASIC miner CHIP manufacturing on the 14/16nm node is in either Taiwan (TSMC fab with input or part-ownership by Samsung) or New York State of the US (Global Founderies, ex-IBM fab) at this point.

Ah yes, I remember this from when I was researching mobile-CPU friendly PoW hash function designs in 2016, that Samsung had an advantage on 14nm chips for mobile.

Bitmain in particular has shown a LOT of issues with getting enough chips to make miners with- when you have LARGE companies like NVidia and AMD having availability shortages on their new cards that they plan to sell millions of, a small company like Bitmain has to settle for what capasity is left over (and keep in mind that AMD has long-term contracts locking in capasity at Global Founderies due to the ex-AMD fabs being part OF Global Founderies dating back to it's foundation and their sale TO GF by AMD - and a lot of the rest of GF capasity is locked into IBM for the SAME reason).

So doesn't this favor my hypothesis that Litecoin's price rise means ASIC supply is constrained thus hashrate will not rise as fast as price does, and thus older 28nm stock should come into mining and it should signal SegWit, because those guys want to remain profitable at higher prices.

I see that there are still a couple of KNC Titan Scrypt miners for sale on ebay. And as the price is rising the A2 Dominators are becoming viable to mine with. I see a shit load of A2s for sale on ebay at really cheap prices ($200, etc). You can practically but them for nothing and when the price rises enough you could flip then for a profit I bet. I haven't actually run the calculation to see at what price the A2s are generating enough profit.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
He has every right to defend his patent. Are you a Communist?

Sorry you are incorrect:

wait...
if his asicboost is rendered invalid, doesn't that make all his ASIC+asicboost hardware useless ( totally useless) ?

As I understand the whitepaper, yes it would because the logic gates for avoiding the optimization have been eliminated which makes it 20% more efficient.

All those who own Bitmain hardware for mining SHA2 coins, must fight SegWit.

If you fork and bankrupt miners who bought hardware, Bitcoin can never again be trusted. It means Bitcoin is run by democracy and not by immutability. Satoshi (Nash) will roll over in his grave.

The whales of Bitcoin will destroy any such fork. I guarantee you that!


Got LTC yet?  Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
Now that Jihan and Bitmain have been outed as exploiting a vulnerability in Bitcoin's PoW and that SegWit would have made it impossible for them to continue exploiting this vulnerability the motivations for blocking SegWit and supporting BU have now become very clear. We're going to see a shift in SegWit support in Bitcoin very soon and LTC is also helping here by activating SegWit first. I can see some more room up for Litecoin until around 0.02 or $25, but this will change as soon as Bitcoin starts to make progress towards activating SegWit as well and people start moving back into BTC. If you think BTC will stay behind and never activate SW or LN you are sorely mistaken. Let's see what happens and see who turns out to be right.

We can't get 95% to activate SegWit on Bitcoin without Bitmain's approval. They have every right to protect their patent's value.

We can't lower the 95% threshold for Bitcoin, because it will cause too much risk and wild price swings.

Also we shouldn't be putting such experimental shit on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is supposed to remain reliable.

Sorry Bitcoin will remain unmodified.

Sorry Bitcoin will get SegWit and Lightning. This exploit is going to get fixed and the backlash for Bitmain will be serious, you will soon wake up and see the momentum this all is going to create for activating SegWit on BTC.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
Now that Jihan and Bitmain have been outed as exploiting a vulnerability in Bitcoin's PoW and that SegWit would have made it impossible for them to continue exploiting this vulnerability the motivations for blocking SegWit and supporting BU have now become very clear. We're going to see a shift in SegWit support in Bitcoin very soon and LTC is also helping here by activating SegWit first. I can see some more room up for Litecoin until around 0.02 or $25, but this will change as soon as Bitcoin starts to make progress towards activating SegWit as well and people start moving back into BTC. If you think BTC will stay behind and never activate SW or LN you are sorely mistaken. Let's see what happens and see who turns out to be right.

We can't get 95% to activate SegWit on Bitcoin without Bitmain's approval. They have every right to protect their patent's value.

We can't lower the 95% threshold for Bitcoin, because it will cause too much risk and wild price swings.

Also we shouldn't be putting such experimental shit on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is supposed to remain reliable.

Sorry Bitcoin will remain unmodified, as Satoshi (aka Nash) intended its equilibrium game theory to be a clusterfuck of politics insuring the immutability of the protocol which is what gives Bitcoin its trust and value.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
And now finally we understand that indeed scaling can only happen on Litecoin:

Re: Well, well, well, now we know what Jihan Wu’s been up to.

Apparently, Jihan Wu has been covertly using some patented exploit called asicboost to gain 20%+ efficiency on his hardware that’s incompatible with SegWit. It all makes sense now. Hope he gets his ass sued off.

Shills care to chime in?

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-April/013996.html

Yup. Now everything is clear and now we know why everyone must buy LTC.

FUD.  Asicboost been known about for a long time and Bitmain holds the patent in China.

https://www.asicboost.com/patent

All ASIC manufacturing will be in China.

Sorry Bitcoin will never get SegWit nor LN, because Bitmain will block it on Bitcoin. And the whales of Bitcoin will always block larger blocks for the reasons I have explained else where.

But Bitmain is unable to block SegWit on Litecoin, even though they tried to.

Now we know why the other ASIC manufacturers are not against SegWit. They don't want to pay patent fees. Perhaps Baron Wu offered some deals to some others to get them to join his efforts.

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
Bitcoin will never get SegWit, Lightning Networks, nor larger blocks. Anyone still talking/writing about that are wasting their breath/fingertips.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but here I think you are mistaken. Now that Jihan and Bitmain have been outed as exploiting a vulnerability in Bitcoin's PoW and that SegWit would have made it impossible for them to continue exploiting this vulnerability the motivations for blocking SegWit and supporting BU have now become very clear. We're going to see a shift in SegWit support in Bitcoin very soon and LTC is also helping here by activating SegWit first. I can see some more room up for Litecoin until around 0.02 or $25, but this will change as soon as Bitcoin starts to make progress towards activating SegWit as well and people start moving back into BTC. If you think BTC will stay behind and never activate SW or LN you are sorely mistaken. Let's see what happens and see who turns out to be right.
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