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Topic: Sportsbooks that aren’t paying out on Biden winning the US Presidential Election - page 4. (Read 2645 times)

legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1285
Flying Hellfish is a Commie
Every single news outlet is reporting that Biden is the winner and I’ve seen his speech.  



News are not deciding who wins elections, and this is not the first time something like this happens.
Better turn off TV and mainstream media, because they did wrong predictions many times, and even announced Gore as president one time, and they also miserably predicted all polls before elections.
FTX is still allowing users to decide and keep their bet on presidential elections.

The difference is that the Gore-Bush election was decided by a single state and the margin was extremely close. Trump is not going to overturn the results with more states involved and with bigger margins.

The media isn't just making things up out of thin air. They're going by the results being reported by state governments. That's how elections work. Of course the next step is to certify the results and wait for the electoral college to make it official but I don't see why casinos have to wait that long because at that point it's a foregone conclusion what will occur. We already have all the evidence we need to determine that Biden will be the next president.

For what it's worth:  that's a fake headline that the Trump campaign was spreading to discredit the media.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-headline/fact-check-the-washington-times-president-gore-headline-is-fake-idUSKBN27P216

They did call Florida for Bush too early, and then Gore conceded only to later retract.  This all went down during election night though - not a comparable situation really.

Besides, the only thing you need to trust to know who won the election is a calculator.



Saw this. We all know the reasoning behind this wasn't to get a better shot at winning in the courts, as the courts aren't going to care about anything relating to fake news. They're going to care about substance of the allegations, which there has not been any.

The reason for this is so Trump can enrage the base and make some of them feel like there is still a chance - which is the reason for 60-70% of Republicans thinking that voter fraud was common and the reason for Biden winning this election.

Trump will maintain his grip over the party through doing this. Raising money and continuing to build his contacts that he'll be able to use when the midterms come around.
sr. member
Activity: 1680
Merit: 379
Top Crypto Casino
Trump's chances of staying in office are effectively 0%. There is no legal route that can overturn the results. I don't think he'll attempt a coup. Anybody who bets on him is only throwing money away. Even if you're a die hard Trump supporter why not put your money on Biden to recover your losses or invest in Bitcoin instead?
hero member
Activity: 2548
Merit: 950
fly or die
I'm talking about today. Today the election is over, yet some are still betting, at 1.05-1.07 for Biden, and the reverse for Trump. If you have a spare million to put on Biden, you're going to win 50000 easily. Those putting money on Trump today just want to spend money to keep their dream alive or something.
hero member
Activity: 3178
Merit: 977
www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
Betting has an emotional component and a rational component. I'd say at the moment people putting money on Biden favor the rational, and people putting money on Trump the emotional.
Trump and emotional? I disagree. They bet on the underdog which offers better odds plain and simple. High risk, high reward is what they are after basically.

Also, to earn money by betting on Biden, you must bet a big amount, while you can bet a smaller amount on Trump.
Not necessarily. I observed many sites offering 1.6-1.7 odds for a Biden win which are pretty awesome odds if you ask me. Many expected Trump to lose after his bad presidential performance which made these odds really tempting.
hero member
Activity: 2548
Merit: 950
fly or die
i can't find any crypto books (with decent betting liquidity anyway) still offering odds. but like i mentioned earlier, FTX's trump tokens are still trading and buying/holding TRUMPGO is essentially the same thing as laying against trump. https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD
I had to read back on your posts to see what this was about. I love it, I'll check them out and see if it's an option for me.

i'm not sure where you're located but if ftx.com isn't an option, there is also poloniex.

I haven't looked too much into it, but I don't think there's very significant risk of FTX running away with the money. There's probably not much knowledge of the FTX offerings and I guess the audience of a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange doesn't overlap too significantly with the Betfair audience. It's similar to PredictIt, which currently trades Biden at $0.89. Since PredictIt is USA only and Betfair bans USA, it's hard to arbitrage so there's pretty significant spread.

FTX is legit. it's all about the difficulty to arbitrage. the crypto markets are a bitch to access---jurisdiction issues or the need to buy BTC first and send to a secondary altcoin exchange. trump tokens are a pretty small market to want to jump through all those hoops.

i also wonder if the crypto market just favors trump a bit more than the rest of the betting market. not enough to make it worth arbitraging, but enough to skew the odds.

Betting has an emotional component and a rational component. I'd say at the moment people putting money on Biden favor the rational, and people putting money on Trump the emotional.

Also, to earn money by betting on Biden, you must bet a big amount, while you can bet a smaller amount on Trump.
hero member
Activity: 2408
Merit: 584
PA just declared that they will not be providing any court hearing for Trump team as well, they have verified and certified the results, on December 14th the electoral college will get together and there is probably not that many faithless voters neither, hell there are people saying trump ones could even switch to Biden at the last minute there as well but I doubt that is the case.

So, by 14th December is the last option sportsbooks have, if EC ends up voting for Biden and ends the discussion, there is NOTHING trump can do even legally as well, it's done, it is kaput, it is finished job. Until that day all he can do is go to supreme court once more, to make the local courts hear him instead of reject him, and without any evidence (which they have put forward zero so far) that would still end up with a rejection lol.
That has been always the case, there has never been any "proof" of fraud ever and never provided with any problems at all. Think about it this way, trump campaign just spent 3 million (of regular folks money who donated) just to do a recount and Biden won 100+ votes instead of Trump proving there was a scam.

They are really not thinking smart because one day Biden is an old senile fool while the other moment he organized the greatest fraud in history of USA, they make no sense at certain points. So long story short it was always Trump claiming fraud because he is not someone who can accept defeat and that was the only reason for all of this, whereas the reality was just him losing straight up while being narsistic person, I hope trump fans will see that one day but I doubt it.
hero member
Activity: 3178
Merit: 977
www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
Can't believe we've still got markets on this, to be honest;) I mean, right now, all the news I can find is about Trump himself giving up, and courts left and right throwing out his appeals for recount. I'm sure deep down the guy has already given up but is just making a good show of going down fighting in case he decides to run again in 4 years (can he do that?).
He could try, but it would be pointless. Think about it. Trump was such a bad president that many people were in favor of impeaching him during his first term itself which is why him losing against Biden isn't surprising at all.

He would still lose if tries running for President in the future in my opinion which is why the republicans would probably choose someone better as their nominee in the future to compete against the democrats.

Also, he probably won't be able to run for President later since he has to face a plethora of lawsuits once he officially steps down.
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 1226
Livecasino, 20% cashback, no fuss payouts.
Can't believe we've still got markets on this, to be honest;) I mean, right now, all the news I can find is about Trump himself giving up, and courts left and right throwing out his appeals for recount. I'm sure deep down the guy has already given up but is just making a good show of going down fighting in case he decides to run again in 4 years (can he do that?).
hero member
Activity: 1666
Merit: 753
i can't find any crypto books (with decent betting liquidity anyway) still offering odds. but like i mentioned earlier, FTX's trump tokens are still trading and buying/holding TRUMPGO is essentially the same thing as laying against trump. https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD

it last traded at $0.882, implying odds of 1.118 to bet against trump. that's fucking amazing at this point---never underestimate the delusion of trump supporters. take their money because it's laying on the table. Tongue

How is this still trading at $0.9 (implicit odds of >1.1)? Is payout of 1 USD guaranteed by FTX or is there some implicit risk that artificially depresses the prices of these tokens?

Wouldn't this be a very simple arbitrage opportunity if you play both sides of the book?

I haven't looked too much into it, but I don't think there's very significant risk of FTX running away with the money. There's probably not much knowledge of the FTX offerings and I guess the audience of a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange doesn't overlap too significantly with the Betfair audience. It's similar to PredictIt, which currently trades Biden at $0.89. Since PredictIt is USA only and Betfair bans USA, it's hard to arbitrage so there's pretty significant spread.

Yeah, but I guess FTX's offerings are far more appealing than PredictIt given that it's got a pretty sizable orderbook, while PredictIt limits to US citizens and I think $800 USD per bet.

The only concern with this token is precisely that they may also refuse to pay out on Feb 1st. Although they did settle the TRUMPWIN/TRUMPLOSE tokens this month it's no guarantee that they will do the same in February. They have ultimate control over the interpretation of settlement conditions:

Quote
The settlement of TRUMPFEBWIN tokens are at FTX's total discretion, and promise not to complain about the manner in which it is settled

It's certainly a very interesting deal either way given that the winner has been long called, and I might put some mBTC on it just for fun  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1483
i can't find any crypto books (with decent betting liquidity anyway) still offering odds. but like i mentioned earlier, FTX's trump tokens are still trading and buying/holding TRUMPGO is essentially the same thing as laying against trump. https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD
I had to read back on your posts to see what this was about. I love it, I'll check them out and see if it's an option for me.

i'm not sure where you're located but if ftx.com isn't an option, there is also poloniex.

I haven't looked too much into it, but I don't think there's very significant risk of FTX running away with the money. There's probably not much knowledge of the FTX offerings and I guess the audience of a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange doesn't overlap too significantly with the Betfair audience. It's similar to PredictIt, which currently trades Biden at $0.89. Since PredictIt is USA only and Betfair bans USA, it's hard to arbitrage so there's pretty significant spread.

FTX is legit. it's all about the difficulty to arbitrage. the crypto markets are a bitch to access---jurisdiction issues or the need to buy BTC first and send to a secondary altcoin exchange. trump tokens are a pretty small market to want to jump through all those hoops.

i also wonder if the crypto market just favors trump a bit more than the rest of the betting market. not enough to make it worth arbitraging, but enough to skew the odds.
hero member
Activity: 3178
Merit: 977
www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
If you're from a restricted region, I think they'd definitely have an issue with using a VPN to circumvent that ban. Anyway, Fairlay has it at 1.065 right now, so you can use Bitcoin and not worry about KYC: https://fairlay.com/market/2020-us-presidential-election/
Based on my research, I think it's possible to place a bet successfully through Betfair using a VPN as long as their support team validates it beforehand. Already placed a bet on Fairlay earlier. The odds are down to 1.059 something against Trump.

Regarding the subject set out by the OP, I think that it is fair enough that a lot of books are still waiting for official certification. But as each day passes and no progress is being made in any court, it just makes it increasingly seem like an attempt to stall progress and hold onto user funds for zero reason.
The problem here is that punters are used to bets getting settled and paid out quickly which is why they expected the same with this bet. Majority of them including me weren't aware that the books and exchanges would take an eternity to pay out in this manner.
full member
Activity: 1134
Merit: 105

Besides, the only thing you need to trust to know who won the election is a calculator.


Accept it or not, but Biden is the winner of the USA elections on statistics and everyone has to accept it. Few sportsbook may take more time but eventually they will have to pay to those who have bet for Biden. There is nothing to worry about, just a few more days before every sportbook will settle this bet.  
legendary
Activity: 2716
Merit: 2093
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Every single news outlet is reporting that Biden is the winner and I’ve seen his speech.  



News are not deciding who wins elections, and this is not the first time something like this happens.
Better turn off TV and mainstream media, because they did wrong predictions many times, and even announced Gore as president one time, and they also miserably predicted all polls before elections.
FTX is still allowing users to decide and keep their bet on presidential elections.

The difference is that the Gore-Bush election was decided by a single state and the margin was extremely close. Trump is not going to overturn the results with more states involved and with bigger margins.

The media isn't just making things up out of thin air. They're going by the results being reported by state governments. That's how elections work. Of course the next step is to certify the results and wait for the electoral college to make it official but I don't see why casinos have to wait that long because at that point it's a foregone conclusion what will occur. We already have all the evidence we need to determine that Biden will be the next president.

For what it's worth:  that's a fake headline that the Trump campaign was spreading to discredit the media.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-headline/fact-check-the-washington-times-president-gore-headline-is-fake-idUSKBN27P216

They did call Florida for Bush too early, and then Gore conceded only to later retract.  This all went down during election night though - not a comparable situation really.

Besides, the only thing you need to trust to know who won the election is a calculator.

legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 3284
i can't find any crypto books (with decent betting liquidity anyway) still offering odds. but like i mentioned earlier, FTX's trump tokens are still trading and buying/holding TRUMPGO is essentially the same thing as laying against trump. https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD

it last traded at $0.882, implying odds of 1.118 to bet against trump. that's fucking amazing at this point---never underestimate the delusion of trump supporters. take their money because it's laying on the table. Tongue

How is this still trading at $0.9 (implicit odds of >1.1)? Is payout of 1 USD guaranteed by FTX or is there some implicit risk that artificially depresses the prices of these tokens?

Wouldn't this be a very simple arbitrage opportunity if you play both sides of the book?

I haven't looked too much into it, but I don't think there's very significant risk of FTX running away with the money. There's probably not much knowledge of the FTX offerings and I guess the audience of a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange doesn't overlap too significantly with the Betfair audience. It's similar to PredictIt, which currently trades Biden at $0.89. Since PredictIt is USA only and Betfair bans USA, it's hard to arbitrage so there's pretty significant spread.
hero member
Activity: 1666
Merit: 753
i can't find any crypto books (with decent betting liquidity anyway) still offering odds. but like i mentioned earlier, FTX's trump tokens are still trading and buying/holding TRUMPGO is essentially the same thing as laying against trump. https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD

it last traded at $0.882, implying odds of 1.118 to bet against trump. that's fucking amazing at this point---never underestimate the delusion of trump supporters. take their money because it's laying on the table. Tongue

How is this still trading at $0.9 (implicit odds of >1.1)? Is payout of 1 USD guaranteed by FTX or is there some implicit risk that artificially depresses the prices of these tokens?

Wouldn't this be a very simple arbitrage opportunity if you play both sides of the book?



Regarding the subject set out by the OP, I think that it is fair enough that a lot of books are still waiting for official certification. But as each day passes and no progress is being made in any court, it just makes it increasingly seem like an attempt to stall progress and hold onto user funds for zero reason.
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 3284
betfair's odds are down to 1.04. reality setting in?

I'm not too sure about that. They seem to move pretty randomly (from my perspective anyway; I don't really follow political news that much). I believe Biden odds dropped to 1.03 about two weeks ago, but it went back to 1.07, and it keeps fluctuating between 1.04-1.07. I have bets placed at 1.12 average odds so watching Betfair odds is my way of seeing how my bet is going  Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 2037
A note for places that paid out quickly; taking on the risk of an overturned election. I placed bets for Biden and Democrats to win on Betnomi, and it was paid out, I want to say 2 weeks ago or something like that anyways. Hard to remember as I put it right into a Poker tourney lol.

Side note I need to research this stuff better.
If you're from a restricted region, I think they'd definitely have an issue with using a VPN to circumvent that ban. Anyway, Fairlay has it at 1.065 right now, so you can use Bitcoin and not worry about KYC: https://fairlay.com/market/2020-us-presidential-election/
I'm there now was thinking it might be nice to pick up some free sats, but the layout is confusing. It looks like you select "on" or "Against" at the bottom of the odds, selecting against everything seems to match up to 1.078 as odds given.

I've got an account now so I'll probably explore all of these options and do some site research before funding and betting anything. If I miss it I can't feel to bad, already made something off the election.


i can't find any crypto books (with decent betting liquidity anyway) still offering odds. but like i mentioned earlier, FTX's trump tokens are still trading and buying/holding TRUMPGO is essentially the same thing as laying against trump. https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD

it last traded at $0.882, implying odds of 1.118 to bet against trump. that's fucking amazing at this point---never underestimate the delusion of trump supporters. take their money because it's laying on the table. Tongue

betfair's odds are down to 1.04. reality setting in?
I had to read back on your posts to see what this was about. I love it, I'll check them out and see if it's an option for me.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1483
Would that mean you can still bet on that odds now? I guess they are giving free money here... I never gamble in the site yet so I'm unfamiliar with it, but on a regular sportsbook, crypto sportsbook to specific, odds are not anymore available.

i can't find any crypto books (with decent betting liquidity anyway) still offering odds. but like i mentioned earlier, FTX's trump tokens are still trading and buying/holding TRUMPGO is essentially the same thing as laying against trump. https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD

it last traded at $0.882, implying odds of 1.118 to bet against trump. that's fucking amazing at this point---never underestimate the delusion of trump supporters. take their money because it's laying on the table. Tongue

betfair's odds are down to 1.04. reality setting in?

i agree it's extremely unlikely, but if it's literally impossible, you should place a bet on biden at 1.07 right now. why are you complaining here instead of grabbing all that free money?
I guess you are one of the very few minority who actually believes that Trump still has a chance.

okay, i guess that's a vague way of saying "it's extremely unlikely", sure.

This isn't Gore vs Bush. He doesn't have any chance plain and simple.

i'm not gonna explain to you the difference between zero and non-zero (but low) chances again. Roll Eyes
sr. member
Activity: 2296
Merit: 348
PA just declared that they will not be providing any court hearing for Trump team as well, they have verified and certified the results, on December 14th the electoral college will get together and there is probably not that many faithless voters neither, hell there are people saying trump ones could even switch to Biden at the last minute there as well but I doubt that is the case.

So, by 14th December is the last option sportsbooks have, if EC ends up voting for Biden and ends the discussion, there is NOTHING trump can do even legally as well, it's done, it is kaput, it is finished job. Until that day all he can do is go to supreme court once more, to make the local courts hear him instead of reject him, and without any evidence (which they have put forward zero so far) that would still end up with a rejection lol.
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 3284
You could contact Betfair support and ask them if it's possible to place the bet without any issues. I don't really think they have issues with VPNs as long as you aren't doing something illegal.

If you're from a restricted region, I think they'd definitely have an issue with using a VPN to circumvent that ban. Anyway, Fairlay has it at 1.065 right now, so you can use Bitcoin and not worry about KYC: https://fairlay.com/market/2020-us-presidential-election/
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