This is our biggest market ever on stake, the risk for us is in the millions so it definitely sparked a debate internally. Our odds provider is not settling it until next year and we couldn't hold user funds till feb or prematurely say that trump had lost just because the media has called the race. We did however create a set of criteria for what a trump win would constitute in case Trump plots a coup
. We tried to hit the right balance here and it has been amazing to see that bettors on both sides of the market have been telling us they are satisfied with our decision.
The criteria listed is as follows:
Given that we are taking bets on the result of the election a winning Trump bet will only be possible if certain criteria are satisfied. All of the following would need to occur:
1. Voter fraud is proven
2. Votes are recast
3. Trump receives 270+ electoral college votes
4. Biden concedes
Problems with this criteria were brought up previously in this thread but not addressed.
1. Voter fraud is "likely to be found" according to some authorities, but the Trump campaign, the US DOJ, and Republican legislatures seem to be focusing on election fraud. That is systematic fraud conducted by the State rather than individual voters.
2. This is ambiguous. I do not believe this is referring to the selection of electors by the state or the voted conducted by the electoral college, as neither event has happened yet. This is probably talking about votes cast by the people. If so, to my knowledge, this has never happened in a US Presidential election. Votes are invalidated every year for many reasons. It seems likely that if the Trump campaign and GOP efforts are successful, then certain votes will be invalidated with no chance to be recast.
4. There is no requirement for a losing presidential candidate to secede in a US Presidential election.
The only decisive point in determining this contest is #3. I understand that sportsbooks need the ability to exercise discretion in cases where the results of a contest are contentious, but that discretion should be applied fairly and uniformly. Stake is paying out Biden bets on the basis that the electoral college will elect him. That should be the only criteria necessary to pay out Trump bets.
Note that I have no wager on this contest with this sportsbook. I'm just a little surprised to see this from Stake.
I agree.
You're opening yourself up to an even bigger headache with these stipulations.
#3 is all you need
in 2016, the allegations were pressed by dems after the official result was promulgated, they questioned the election integrity later.
In 2016 the media declared Trump the projected winner and Clinton conceded almost immediately. That's completely different than the House exercising the constitutional right to impeach.
The only accusations against the integrity of the actual election were
made by Trump when he claimed without any evidence whatsoever that over 3 million votes were cast illegally and therefor he actually won the popular vote, despites losing it by 3 million votes in the real world. Sound familiar? It gets better. He then went on to form a committee to investigate this voter fraud. They found basically nothing.
This year, bad things are happening and they don't cooperate to see if there isintegrity or not,
No partisans need to cooperate to see if there's integrity or not, in fact it would only make it worse if they did. There are election officials and procedures already in place and there's a judicial branch to determine if the law was broken and how to remedy the situation if so.
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