Topic: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on[Havelock] - page 71. (Read 300616 times)

https://alpha-t.net/

Better diversify and invest in scrypt mining.

Should we negotiate another shipment with Cointerra with our current stock of BTC?  Any other ideas?  We need to keep the hardware coming continuously with our capital.

Agree.
I'm an investor. For me, it is worse to loose an opportunity than loose an investment. I prefer taking the risk of having all my share going down to zero than missing the opportunity of making a huge profit.
I believe 2014 will be the year of Cognitive.

Huzzah!  /me continues cautious optimism

A timely update from CoinTerra!

Yeah, I'm in this boat too (not that anyone asked for my opinion).  "Cautiously optimistic" is me right now.  If you have lost confidence in Garr, or Cointerra, it's pretty hard to come up with a reason not to sell now while you can.  (you might not make a BTC profit, but if you bought at 0.25BTC/share when BTC was $100 and sold at 0.05 with BTC at $900 that's still 55% net-value-profit, less than you would have made holding raw BTC but not a loss!)  On the other hand, if you think there is even a reasonable chance that Garr and cointerra will deliver (and I think there is a reasonable chance) depending on how deep your position is, hold or buy are very reasonable responses right now IMO.

I currently hold 100 shares + 6 mining contracts for a total exposure of 220 shares post-cointerra-delivery, I don't mind admitting, and my average share price is probably 0.13BTC/share including the contracts.  That's just a guess though, I have to go review my histories to get real numbers.

EDIT:  even if the market depth was there, presume I could sell all my holdings for a net of 11BTC, or $9900 at today's exchange rates.  This is probably a very small profit for me given the BTC/share cost and $/BTC cost when I bought in.  Following Jeff Bezos' "regret minimization framework", if cog goes to shit and is worth zero, I lose 9k.  If cog rebounds to 0.25BTC/share, and BTC stays around $1k, I stand to gain $55,000.  For me, I would regret selling if it did well WAY more than not selling and losing my initial investment.  Regret minimization is the way to be a happy investor.

Keep in mind that god is testing you everytime iCEBREAKER posts in a thread. Feed the troll and you lose. Disregard his posts, and you are a winner. I still cannot avoid the temptation.

Why was giving money to cointerra a terrible mistake?  Isn't that not true unless they actually fail delivery?  Regardless of whether or not hashfast delivers in dec/jan, that network size increase is taken into account in my projections (hence low, middle, and high being over 50% apart from each other).  If cointerra delivers what they promised, COG shareholders will make money and COG shares will be worth more than they are now, it's pretty much 100% up to cointerra (and Garrett running COG well and not screwing up).  If any one company released enough hardware at once to impact the network by THAT much it would have other impacts to the price and confidence of bitcoin itself, so we can (hopefully) presume none would do that.

If this statement was AFTER delivery, I'd say thanks Captain Hindsight. However....

Chill out brohemian, you're way too... tense.   

Different tenses brah.

Au contraire, HashFast is set to deliver their first batch before the Dec 31 guaranteed delivery date.

Giving money to Cointerra was a terrible mistake.   

One month delay for cointerra and our shares go down by about 30 pct... There hasn't been a single ASIC-generation miner yet that was delivered on time.

+1

...ok. that's fair.  Lemme *slightly* modify that statement.  "I don't think cognitive investors that bought cognitive when garr was talking about our upcoming cointerra deal have any reason to trust cointerra less now than they did at that time."  The cointerra "equation" hasn't really changed - but the impression of COG itself probably has.  I merely mean to say it is the most likely explanation, rather that worries about cointerra screwing COG.

If you disagree, however, perhaps there is worrying news from cointerra I am not aware of?  It is pretty easy to miss things like that, people don't like to talk about bad news.

I almost wanted to believe the rest of your post. Until I read that last sentence.

I realize numbers don't lie, but numbers based on likelihood and possibilities sure as hell mislead. Don't take this as an attack theterabyte, your calculations and posts are beyond warranted and necessarily.

Concerning mining addresses as well as financial statements 10 days past due, the blockchain does not lie. However we all know how easy it is to manipulate. Somethings awry, and answers aren't being provided for a very specific reason.

And that whole hold Cointerra accountable approach? I can't find the appropriate "WTF" statement(s) to debate with you how naive it sounds.


I rarely bother to ask, but since I haven't seen him around lately ; Goat, as a large shareholder what is your current take on the situation? It seems like you've had the closest relationship throughout Cognitive's history.

Finally, for those interested in the time between now and then, eagerly watching the new transparent deposit addresses, here are the expectations:

assuming ~870GH/s, diff 908mil, 2% pool fees, we get:

 1/(908.0*1000*1000*(2**32)/(870*1000*1000*1000)/60/60/24/7) blocks/week *25btc/block *0.98profit => 3.306 BTC/week expected. Since 50% goes to growth fund, that is 1.65BTC/week, or 0.000159 BTC/share (assuming 10420 shares).

At the previous diff, the calculation was 0.000204, and the actual div paid last week was 0.000242, so presumably we had good luck or my GH estimation is low.  I still don't know of a good way to calculate probability distributions to say how likely it is our diff is 20% higher or 50% lower than expected over 1 week, 1 month, etc. but I am looking into it.

EDIT: Oh, the other explanation for 0.000242 instead of 0.000204 is maybe garr didn't pay divs to unclaimed shares and let the claimed ones absorb the extra, if there were ~8800 shares the expectation would be 0.000241, or maybe it is a combination of ~9500 shares and also some good luck...

I agree with your analysis. I could be possible that some people spread FUD to get very cheap share.

Just to re-analyze the diff numbers...

Previously, I predicted:
Difficulty at the end of January (projected) => 268mil * ( 1.41**8 ) => 4187mil

Now it is 908mil @ Dec 13th.  The last diff interval was 12.6 days, so lets call it 12 for fudge factor.  The last diff increase was 28.4%.

EDIT: I misread the date on my watch, LOL, it's the 10th, but shifting everything back 3 days doesn't impact anything significantly.

Dec 13 => 25 => Jan 6th => 18th => 30th

Using the last diff increase as a lower bound, 35% as a middle, and 50% as an upper bound, we get:

Difficulty at the end of January (low projected) => 908mil * ( 1.284**4 ) => 2468mil
Difficulty at the end of January (middle projected) => 908mil * ( 1.35**4 ) => 3015mil
Difficulty at the end of January (pessimistic projected) => 908mil * ( 1.50**4 ) => 4596mil

Keep in mind 50% per difficulty adjustment means the network increases over 225% per month, which is probably (i hope) not going to happen even with cointerra, knc, and VMC dumping their hardware in January.

I now consider the end-of-January diff being under 4 billion to be a "somewhat safe bet", and under 3 billion to be "possible but unlikely".  Time will tell how accurate my projections are.

keep in mind that if we receive our hardware at 4.2bil, I calculated, cog will be earning ~24.38BTC/week which means first week divs should be 0.001BTC/week per share (at 26420 shares, presuming that COG.F and COG.F2 convert).  This historically, mining shares have been worth a valuation such that their instantaneous annualized return is between 20 and 30%.

EDIT2: To clarify, "instantaneous annualized return" is a metric I birthed straight from my asshole.  But I think it is instructive, since actual annualized return estimates are complete bullshit when the "coins produced" decrease by 30% every 12 days unless the corp is constantly buying hardware.

EDIT: to demonstrate what I mean, AsicMiner is currently 0.31BTC/share and the last div was 0.00199, 0.00199*52/0.31 = 33% instantaneous annualized yield.

0.001*52/0.20 => 0.26BTC/share.
0.001*52/0.30 => 0.173BTC/share

EDIT: Current analysis for COG is 0.05BTC/share, last div is 0.000242, 0.000242*52/0.05 => 25.2% instantaneous annualized yield, but that doesn't take into account the hashing power that arrives in January.

It seems the only reasonable explanation for COG's current very-low share price is uncertainty and lack of trust/transparency.  I don't think people distrust cointerra.