Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com - page 1604. (Read 3049505 times)

exponential curve has been a pretty darn good fit so far.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-small-lin.png
Of course it wont last forever, but its only the next ~6 months or so that are truly relevant for a purchase decision today. Either way, its a much better tool than what asic vendors give you, who will gladly calculate and publish your monthly profits assuming no difficulty increase whatsoever.


Yeah, so we agree;  by using previous growth to predict future growth, in the coming months it may well even be far worse than what TGB predicts. They are not scaring miners nearly enough. Is that what you meant to say?

Though personally I doubt all these asic vendors will have a supply chain in place thats actually capable of living up to their promises and ship products as fast as consumers buy them. KnC may or may not, and  I hope they wont all falter as badly as BFL and avalon,  but in reality there will be shipping delays and production ramp ups, which would translate to continued exponential curve. No one expects that curve to be a perfect fit, but that its exponential does make sense because of production ramps and one other thing you are not factoring in : price drops. These will be inevitable.

To me its simple: difficulty curve will follow the production ramp of all those vendors combined. Whatever they produce will be sold or deployed, until market price approaches production cost. We are miles away from there. Once we get close to that, exponential growth will end and taper off, but not before. The resulting curve wont be a perfect exponential curve, but the bumps we are about to experience will flatten out and become invisible over time, just like its impossible to spot the bumps in the current charts, that we had  in the past due to BTC fluctuation or  the CPU to GPU and FPGA transitions


Whether the market is ebay or direct doesnt matter. Yes higher prices are achieved on ebay for now, but that makes no difference to the overall picture. There is only a demand on ebay because there is an (incorrect) assumption of profitability. Exploiting that ignorance for as long as it exists is a valid though risky business model for individuals, its not something you can count on when producing those miners. You think Apple cares about ebay premiums?

Difficulty and hashrate and perfectly linear.   If network hash rate doubles, then difficulty doubles (eventually), and the GROSS return on x GH/s is cut perfectly in half.  The net return is reduced by more than 50% because the electrical cost remains fixed.

Based on existing (not future) pre-orders we are looking at 6 PH/s min by end of Dec.  If you want to be more conservative you should consider 8 PH/s.  

1 PH/s ~= 140 mil difficulty
1 billion difficulty ~= 7 PH/s

If you want the exact formulas

hashrate = (2^32 * difficulty) / 600
difficulty = (600 * hashrate) / 2^32

Remember the network/protocol has no way on "knowing" the hashrate (and neither do any sites which chart it).  We can only estimate the hashrate based on the frequency that blocks are found.

Difficulty and network hashrate, how do they differ?  If one were to look at at the return on a fixed hashrate, say 10GH/s, and the network hashrate doubles, would the BTC returned per week on that 10GH/s halve?  Or does it take a doubling of the difficulty to halve the return on that 10GH/s - understanding we're talking probability not absolutes.

Bitcoin difficulty just hit 148,819,200, and the next bitcoin difficulty is likely to be ~200,000,000! 

Do you know where your miner is?

That was 1 of the most amazing/interesting "off-topic" images I've seen on any fora in the last couple of years, crumbs!

Thanx 4 posting that pic!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horten_Ho_229

My prediction is only a few percent off, not bad.

LOL.. maybe I'm the only one who gets the correlation between this aircraft and the KNC prototypes. If that's what you're trying to say.

Far below what i expected.

In the meantime, everyone should get used to the new number: 148.819.199

Right question to ask (related to huge increase in BTC exchange rate),

  What's the cost of keeping
  BTC exchange rates low?

+1. Crumbs, if you posted like this even half the time, that big ignore button would slowly fade away. I'm taking my ignore off, let's see how long you can maintain that! (as if you care about being ignored by me or anyone else).

I think the amount of monarchs will be enormous. Before BFL announced the monarch, they were shipping 2-3 days of singles preorders per day. Now they're shipping like 20 days.

So yeah, the exponential growth will ultimately come to an end, but we have something like 3-4 months of it ahead of us. Unless BFL announes a "monarch 2.0" that hashes 6TH/s and offers all the monarch guys to jump the queue once again...

And I'd say that it really doesn't depend upon the environment, unless you are a large scale operation. Once difficulty gets to 20bn in 2014 or 2015, the average miner who has only 1 Jupiter isn't going to care about getting .1 BTC per month even if they have free electricity.

I guess not, it's just rather disappointing that even people familiar with mining don't seem to see the risks even after BTCFPGA, BFL, Avalon, BFL, & BFL. Nasty mining has multiple orders in for monarchs and Cognitive just ordered 14*2Th from CoinTerra for January delivery. I don't know with absolute certainty if these guys that are plainly knowledgeable about mining are making +EV bets or no, but I do know with reasonable certainty that they cannot know what exchange rates or vendor margins will look like by the time they're receiving gear. Ordering expensive equipment should not be such a gamble and it wouldn't be if people would stop sending vaporware vendors zero interest loans multiple months in advance of expected shipping dates.

The Genesis Block is false as it claims an exponential rise that won't occur. What will occur is one monstrous leap by the first significant production run fulfilled in a two week window. At which point it will plateau until successive incremental steps are made by delivery runs. The first step up of a professional manufacturer capable of delivering all units as promised on time will be the largest, the following will not as to equal such a rise an proportion of hashrate equal to double that that then exists will have to be deployed, which is never going to happen. As it stands now the current network hashrate is minor, as it stands after October the hashrate will never experience such a proportional leap again, therefore it can never be exponential as the Geneisis Block alludes to, therefore it is false. That's not to say hashrate will not grow significantly, but the Genesis Block is false by the means and rate it proposes. An accurate way of calculating would involve permitting users to enter hashrate deployable predications by manufacturer and a means of varying the timeframe in which each deployment cane be completed. Doubling the entire network hashrate, then doubling the network hashrate again, then doubling the network hashrate again month and month infinitely is BS.

Yes the profit margin for the average pre-order miner will be squeezed throughout the duration in which it exists, then a belief in which BTC price will increase, just as it did with GPU mining, which is precisely what I previously stated. Although the power requirements will reach such point by which Bitcoin will become feature in datacentres predominantly, and hashrate will be sold proportionately. It's unlikely it will stay housed in home environments, and it is up to the community support and grow the networkd for the alt-currencies as and when they offer innovative alternatives. Litecoin will obviously be the next currency and those with GPU farms that have foreseen that; were, and are; wise.

How is comparing the resale of available iPhones as and when they are released ridiculous? You honestly don't think these units when available couldn't fetch a pretty penny on eBay?? Of course they could, some in fact will. Sure that can be debated on moral grounds; but Avalon boxes, BFL units where they exist, are selling for premiums every day. ASICminer structured a whole business around selling items in hand for gross premium compared to what they could mine. I don't know who buys them, but someone does, so the market exists.

That 10 second video contains a mysterious detail. (I view it optimistically)

It also shows what has been described here as quadrants but it's hard to see with the different solder mask.

YMMV

Soon!

Falsely? We shall find out who was "false" in a few months, but its already rather clear to me they will be proven to have been spot on, if not even too optimistic.


For whom? Profit margin for the average preordering miner ? you wish.  Their only hope is a huge increase in BTC exchange rate, and if that happens,  its not so much preordering miners as the BTC hoarders who didnt preorder, that will profit.

Comparing it to iphones is just plain ridiculous.

Surprised ?
In earlier times the bearer of bad news usually got killed..

Hm, from my point of view the genesis calculator is at least way more accurate than any of those with static diff fooling ppl.
And I doubt its purpose is to 'dissuade people from mining'.
**I do neither claim that genesis block it is perfect nor applicable for the next time.**

Regarding 'above electricity costs'...that's the reason why it's quite important to know what's the best 'W for GH/s' value possible we can get by downclocking the asic => long term profitability.

Whoa! Easy buddy. Last time I said something so radical in this thread I had to dodge some thrown stones.