I think it's almost certain that we'll be seeing a difficulty of at least 500 million in a month or two.
BFL is currently somewhere around half way through clearing their preorder backlog, which means they'll add up somewhere around 100M to the current difficulty plus another 100M from updated devices which are not formally considered preorders. Should KnC ship an equal amount of units, and it may as well end up being more, we're already at 500.
Add to that all other companies, and we'll be closer to a billion. Also, don't forget about BFL monarch and the fact that a majority of preorders likely transferred their orders to a new device. Early next year, we're probably close to 2 billion.
I'm guessing that will be the point where the rush will end and panic will ensue. The difficulty will most likely be a sigmoid function, and right now we're less than half way through. Depending on the preorders, the end result might be a marginally positive or even a negative income when you add up electricity costs. You can pretty much forget about making a positive ROI unless you get your units in the next couple of days.
Just to make clear, I'm a BFL customer (unfortunately), and it is obvious fact that I have a vested interest in discouraging other people from mining. However, since a large portion of the preorders are non-refundable, even if I somehow manage to sway those who can get their money back, we're still all screwed.
It's pointless dude, someone else will always buy it. The Genesis Block has been trying to falsely dissuade people from mining for ages, but it is inevitable that whilst a profit margin exists, there is enough money to pour in as long as it beats banking interest rates. At some point that will balance out, then like GPU mining it's an investment into the believe gov acceptance and regulation tied with innovation in accessibility, products, services, and mainstream adoption will continue the BTC price rise as it becomes a more concrete, secure and useful currency and means of instantaneous wealth transfer. If you want to make big money then be prepared to work hard, sweat and innovate. The belief that people really thought they had locked up this mining game and it's reward all for themselves and no one else would notice is moronic. Flog the unit on eBay if you don't believe in Bitcoin, enough people will pay a premium, they always do. The new iPhone with finger print recognition shared from Apple with love to the NSA has been reaching $10k! And that's just for people that cannot wait two weeks for it to be in stock in your standard retain phone outlet. What possible return to you get from that?! It does nothing special, it makes calls and shares your personal info with security agencies, aside from that you're paying 1000% for a few keen glances two weeks before everyone has one??
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