Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com - page 1889. (Read 3049501 times)

Hi guys,

I'm auctioning a DAY 1 KnCMiner Jupiter upgrade + 6 months hosting plan in this thread,

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2867500

Feel free to take a look and ask any questions you may have,

All the best,

Scan of an ID card won't be a problem, but a utility bill might be as I don't live there.
Might as well just do the bank transfer when I decide to as it looks like PayPal will be too much hassle.


It probably does. I have a verified account in the UK, been using it for years.

Thank you for your valuable input
I'll post my own speculations a little later when I run some numbers


Good find
The financial landscape might have changed since I last checked, but I still believe most UK high street banks such as HSBC, Barclays, Nationwide, etc are still charging for SEPA payments. Some time ago they were even clueless as to what SEPA is. That is probably because euro is not the official currency in use and the same applies to the country where the finances for the ASIC purchase are.
But as I mentioned earlier it is pointless to transfer the money to the UK - that will incur more charges. The best and cheapest way is direct SWIFT transfer in USD.

What about:
http://www.citibank.co.uk/personal/banking/international/sepa.htm (read: no fee) [a quick Google search, not like I'm endorsing Citi]

Hopefully spreadsheets with expected delivery dates (and then add at least "Two Weeks" ^TM) will help people plan as to what is the maximum reasonable price.

1PH/s won't be a problem, it will result in a massive price drop in ASIC prices for manufacturers to remain in the game, currently the margins are huge after the first wafer run is paid off. Hopefully it will teach people not to pre-order and pay a premium for negative ROI products, though I doubt it as most crypto miners seem rather clueless about ROI.

I guess I can plug my simple exponential best fit curve which has been tracking pretty darned closely.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/google-doc-with-exponential-fit-lead-time-and-linear-rate-target-236050

Unfortunately I believe its days are numbered... the new projects coming on line are going to accelerate the hashpower being brought onto the network.  That being said it is forecasting 1PH global network speed in early November.

If a pool is paying out based on the number of shares/block reward for each block then you can pool hop when a pool is taking a long time to find a block.  There's no risk, however most pools no longer operate that way so it's not effective.

regarding difficulty  - I think my guess from June will be quite close at the end of September - 1,000,000 G hash per second:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2452732

if you want to check / try - just run "python"
feel free to amend / comment

With regard to pool hopping, I'll leave that to others who better understand the dynamics (or reference threads on the topic, which undoubtedly exist).  But yes, there are advantages to pool hopping, for the same underlying reason there can be more or less than 3600 coins mined per 24 hours:  one factor in ex-post revenue is fixed while you, yourself, may have a dynamic decision you can make against that factor.

I was referring to the following, in which, again, I'm not anybody's idea of an expert.  You can find, in the wiki's or elsewhere on line, the mathematics of the instantaneous probabilities of success in mining on any one hash.  That's a function of difficulty, and the actual network hash rate at that time. 

A business reckons gross revenue per time interval.  Quite uniquely in bitcoin, gross revenue across a time interval is a tractable stochastic function of the above probability; the linkage between that probability and revenue over a time interval is the outcome (actually, I believe, a stochastic integral of outcomes) of the binomial distribution of the number of successes, conditional on the input factors.

Even that, however, is a one-stage calculation.  If someone (think ASICminer) has the ability to increase their - and thus, the network's - hash rate in a meaningful way, they can affect an increase in their current revenue flow.  But they also -for the next stage- affect the subsequent difficulty, which, all equal, might reduce their future revenue flow. 

Thus, entities who have significant hash power, and the ability to throttle that up and back, can view this as a multi-stage optimization problem.  But it's not only stochastic; it's also game-theoretic if they are not the only actor in that play. 

That's what I meant when I used the term "gaming."   Again, I'm not an expert on stochastic optimization, but the above is my somewhat naive understanding of the issue.   

No, he simply means there are more then 3600 coins mined every day so long as the hashrate is growing. It doesn't matter what pool you use.
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Ytterbium, I believe there are those that hop pools to maximize their returns....or mine more BTC. I imagine it is a risk to jump from mining pool to mining pool. no risk no reward!

Loredo, please expand if this is the case.

Hard to say, here's one projection:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AllXvn7jnBMRdGRqMFZORVkxbFE0d1ZRNV92aGdfMlE&usp=sharing

But note it shows the diff climbing from 1 billion next april to two billion in may--that's essentially impossible unless the price of bitcoin were to shoot up to, let's say, $500+ in January.

No, he simply means there are more then 3600 coins mined every day so long as the hashrate is growing. It doesn't matter what pool you use.

+1

Loredo, can you expand a little more on the second half of the quote here, where I believe you are referring to pool hopping. This might be of interest to those purchasing KnC equipment trying to maximize their ROI. Thanks.

So what do you think the network hash rate will be, before and after knc ship their first batch of boxes?

ie: for oct, nov, dec ?

The bitcoin community doesn't have exponential money to put into miners. So those calculators are off with their projections by early next year, around June I'd say is where we hit the wall and there won't be anywhere else to go. That will be the new normal, probably around 500 - 750 million difficulty as an offhand guess.
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I don't think it's possible, no.

The problem with the exponential increases in the calculators' models is that while the diff has been rising exponentially it's doing so with mere linear inputs of money into mining equipment. And that exponential performance gains have come from bringing to bear modern computing technology on the problem, ie: ASICs.

Eventually we hit a wall where we've wrung the most efficiency out of existing tech and at that point, everyone's who already hit positive ROI on their equipment will be cemented in place with their existing market-share, because it won't make financial sense for others to jump into the game unless they can produce a far more efficient miner technically--and they won't be able to. We're looking at 1 or two more generations of mining products (barring some major tech advancement in the chip industry like carbon nanotube chips or something), and if the price of bitcoin doesn't rise dramatically again in the next years then that's the state of things, people mining late this year will probably still be mining late next year.

The bitcoin community doesn't have exponential money to put into miners. So those calculators are off with their projections by early next year, around June I'd say is where we hit the wall and there won't be anywhere else to go. That will be the new normal, probably around 500 - 750 million difficulty as an offhand guess.

I had to verify my account for Paypal to let me use a CC to pay for a Jupiter. Wasn't a huge deal. Dunno if that applies in other countries besides US tho.

They are linearly, functionally, related.  That is, ignoring the transient network rate effects (which are what induce changes in difficulty in the first place) it is:

7158278 * D = Hash

EDIT:  This, BTW, is why difficulty in a trending network growth phase is, like any moving average, always the correct level for what was, not what is.  Hence, the normalized "3600 coins per day" is actually often substantially higher, and a source of "gaming" in players' network participation.

You will need to be present at a fixed address in that country to answer an automated phone call with a pin.

They will also deposit two minor payments in your account in the currency of the country the account is being set up in and will require you put those to amounts in as another pin code.

They can also ask occasionally for a scan of passport/drivers licence etc. the biggest ballache is waiting for the two small amounts to show on your bank statement. Faster if it's internet banking...

Edit: actually this applies to UK, so you probably know this, unsure if same verification steps apply elsewhere. I know Spain has very strict privacy laws typically a scan of National ID and utility bill from a fixed address that has to be verified by a member of personnel.

I've been looking into potential ROI in relation to future Bitcoin difficulty and it looks like it would still make sense to run a Jupiter machine with 1 billion difficulty.

Which made me think - is there a way to calculate difficulty based on network hash rate?
If we can sum up a very rough estimate of the new ASIC machines being delivered and added to the network and the removal of most GPU miners (who pay electricity) then we can calculate again a very rough estimate of the future difficulty.
And again by rough I mean down to hundreds of TH/s.

Or in other words do you it is possible for difficulty to surpass 1 billion this year?