Topic: TA 101 with MatTheCat. Critical Turning Point Ahead? (Read 9732 times)

470s on thursday.. 

Why does the bid/ask sum chart in coinsight.org look so bad atm? After the 400$ it was to the moon and bids we're overrunning the asks but atm I can't see those times in the chart even if I know they we're there? Am I doing something wrong or is something smelling fishy...

back to TA?

Aww, come on Blitz. We had such a nice little cursing thread going on.

Nah, I get it, forum style deteriorating and all... So, sorry for the derail.

http://www.godmode-trader.de/analyse/bitcoins-totgesagte-leben-laenger,3679751

http://www.godmode-trader.de/analyse/schockwelle-erfasst-bitcoin-boersen-2,3673649
http://www.godmode-trader.de/analyse/bitcoins-die-blase-platzt-oder-doch-nicht,3663494
http://www.godmode-trader.de/analyse/bitcoins-zukunftswaehrung-oder-jahrhundertblase,3294895

Although I don't think we will, I would not be surprised if we did.

Nor would I be surprised if we went back down to test the previous ATH ~$266.

Nor would I be surprised if we doubled overnight then broke through the current ATH on massive volume and hit 5 figures by june.

All you have to do is make sure that you are ready for whatever craziness happens.

Or good news, if you believe the Ukraine theory (which I don't entirely).
Putin goes in like Rambo, gets a few bare-chested shots of himself waving a Kalashnikov, woo the Russians love him. Then instead of sealing the deal, he starts talks and appears all reasonable with the West and everything goes back to normal. Happened with S. Ossetia a while back, probably with Crimea too. Much like N. Korea but Russia has one hand on our gas taps and the other on the red button, so instead of any real action we make the symbolic gesture of not going to the Sochi Paralympics.
And bitcoin goes back to normal?

We'll only get there again with bad news. There's plenty of bad things that can happen in bitcoinland though, so its not unlikely.

Excellent news. Thank you.

about that part I bolded.

I had the same feeling when we hit 450 in december. I thought that was the bottom and we'd never see it again. but we did.

I would not be surprised to see it again for a third time (well, technically a fourth time as it's kinda the same range as the pull-back on the run-up in november as well.)

*note, I'm using the 12hr virtex CAD chart on wisdom. draw a line on stamp at 400 and you see pretty much the same thing.

Exactly.

But I can respect that position. To each his own.

How much difference a day makes. I was holding panic bought $618 coins, but woke up today and decided that Bitcoin was going to retrace.....and dumped my coins.

So much for HOLDING.

But aside from that, yep, I am generally bullish. I have staggered buy-ins between $580 - $630. If these orders drop, then depending on how things shape up, I may just consider holding onto those through thick n thin, perhaps only dropping them at clear parabolic blow-offs as and when they come along. It seems that I am good at gauging trends, but tend to cut my own throat when it comes to trading. i.e. a big pile of coin bought at $480 BTC that I sold at $550 (2 minutes before 6K of buying pushed Bitcoin to $570), followed by a mixed bag of good n shit trades (but mostly shit). Had I just held, then I would have a great big cheesey grin on my face just now and have endured none of the headaches and 5 times the profits....of course, all very well saying that with hindsight.

In short, I have no plans or strategies but unlike the whole of Dec, Jan, and Feb, I just no longer feel any great fear towards Bitcoin. At this point in time, I feel from here out Bitcoin is generally a good bet, give or take the odd $100 negative/positive swing or two. I don't buy any of the persisting scare stories of macro down trends still being in place and lower lows being just around the corner for Bitcoin. For me, the bottom has happened (for now) and the reversal is in the process of defining itself.

I appreciate that you use the term HOLDER instead of HODLER, which I assume to mean you are bullish in the short/medium/long term and willing to take some amount of additional risk, but not religiously married to your position.

If this is the case, you must have an exit plan on both the top side and the bottom.

Would you care to share?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlATOHGj9EY

 

Mat, stop defending yourself all the time, you don't need to rise to it. Spend your energy on your analysis, I (and a lot of others) appreciate it Where do you think the retracement from here will lead down to?

I didn't say any of what you defend against. Strawman much? I just brainfarted that the ideal trader would have the (justified) pessimism during times of correction like you did, when you went through your 'short ALL the coins' phase, and the (justified) optimism of sgbett during or near the reversal. I then decided to *share* that brilliant idea with the rest of the world, and I enthusiastically invite you to THANK me for it.

Excuse me.

But I said loud and clear that I believed the bottom was in many times over and the trend had reversed for now. I missed the absolute bottom by less than $9 with a 60BTC buy-in (no staggered tranches....u wouldnt believe the fkn idiotic trading decisions I make...if I just followed what I write on here I would do a whole lot better).

I also stated (in this thread) that a break out above $580 would be a trend reversal point for me, and this point I would be buying in (I done this). Admittedly, I favoured a retest of the lows and common sense seemed to suggest that this was on the cards. For a break out to occur, an X-Factor was required, and an X-Factor came, my short margin was called. (-$800, ouch!)

I am a shitty trader....especially when things happen that I wasn't expecting, like yesterday....any discipline which I lack at the best of times anyhow, and common sense go right out the window. From that insane bull run yesterday, I am limping away with a quarter of the profits that I could have easily have bagged if I weren't such a fraggle.

I do however rate myself with sensing out the general trend. General trend from here is up, but not without a good retracement from the current levels..unless of course Mr X-Factor comes along, again.

You can't say that I never called trend reversal, cos I did many times, including in this thread. U can accuse me of being a shite trader though, cos I am, and I admit it....(right now I have about a 60% success ratio in terms of USD profit. Exit timing on winning trades is fkn shocking and I hang on to losing ones for too long and/or crap myself when I should have held out, always.

Did it ever occur to you that those of us who are kind of good at spotting when a correction isn't over yet (you, TERA, mmitech, maybe me) are also the guys who have a harder time figuring out exactly when the tide has turned and the correction *is* over finally (or at least: for the mid term)?

You know, if there only was a name for that kind of mindset that makes it easier to see the built up risk in a market at a given moment vs. those who have an easier time (too easy, often enough)  only seeing the potential benefits... something like cows vs. ursidae... yeah, that sounds catchy!

Nice call. Critical turning point did happened. 

LOL

 

I think that is the point. You seem to think you can win, I assume I am going to lose and position myself accordingly. Don't trade to win, trade with consequences in mind. This is my "1 step trading plan".

1. Assume all money you buy with you will lose 100% of, for real, and write it off as sunk cost.

It's all about losses. There are two kinds and only one is important. Paper and real. Paper losses don't matter, only real ones. So you got to make sure never to get real losses. That means never sell underwater. "oh but I can buy back cheaper". yeah sure you can, but you might not.

What you got there is a confirmed defacto real loss. Yes you have some fiat to buy with, and you might get it cheaper, but you might get it more expensive, you are effectively back at square one though, you have some money (less than you started with) and you have to make a decision as to what you are are going to 'lose' it all on next

Paper losses can stay paper losses forever, until it goes to zero and the stock is delisted, its not a real loss. If you recall, in step 1 you already lost it all 'for real' so whilst ever you only have paper loss, you are in a better position. You always have X no of whatever you bought, the price is irrelevant, the price distracts you from accumulating. The price makes you do silly things.

If you have a long position deep underwater, no-one is forcing you to sell - you want to. The market wants you to. You can hodl that bad boy forever. You will never have less of what you bought.

This brings me to shorting. Shorting is stupid, its 100% guaranteed negative EV. Your upside is limited your downside is unlimited, and the relative profit/loss from a short position are exponentially opposed. You have a stock at $1 you are short for a dollar a pip. As the price drops, it gets harder and harder to make $10 more. Day 1 it has to drop 10% to 0.90, Day 2 it has to drop 12.5%, Day 3 14.3% etc. Whereas to lose $10 requires the same 10% on day 1, but the next $10 loss only requires 9.1%, the next $10 8.3% etc

If you short, then there is a chance that you will be forced to sell. If you are forced to sell then you can also state with 100% confidence that you will lose the *most* money you could have possibly lost. The margin call is the darling of all brokers, why would you play right into their hands.

Every decision you make is pretty much 50/50. Everything about the market is designed to make you make the worst choice to tip the odds against you. Don't do what the market wants you to do, do the opposite, and do it a bit at a time, that way the odds should tip your way.

I try to remain indifferent to price action at all times. Everything I feel about the market I try to ignore, until such time as it starts to overwhelm me. That's when I know the market *really* wants me to do something, that's when I know it's time to do the opposite. I then do the opposite, all the time remembering step 1, and knowing full well that its probably 50/50 whether I was right.