Topic: TA 101 with MatTheCat. Critical Turning Point Ahead? - page 7. (Read 9732 times)

Blockchain records?

That sounds like TA 202.

I aint there yet.

would help cross it with blockchain records

The chart above is self explanatory. Since the crash, we have been knocking against the upper limits of the long term downtrend. Prior to the $400 crash, was the 10K Whale (or 10K noob according to spastics like billyjoeallen) who tricked automated trading bots into soaking up 3.5 million USD of $580 coin ($579.64 to be precise) before crashing the remaining 4.5K into the Bid Wall. This is a shit ton of liquidity, much of which would have be assumed was leverage. On the 85% post crash bounce from $400 we reached $610, but have generally been trending back down since then. In the shorter term, since we have dipped below the $580 mark, Bitcoin has proven very reluctant to get back above this point. Some whale operating on Bitstamp/Bitfinex just recently tried to manipulate a break out above this point (perhaps merely farming shorter stop losses) with a 1K BTC playing chip placed on the Bid wall just below spot. This resulted in a flurry of panic buying which stopped short of this critical level.

In the medium term, I absolutely do not buy into any of the fear of lower lows. Once the post bounce support level is established, I would consider that it will be grind up until at least the strong $765 resistance level.

In the near term however, I am open to the possibility of Bitcoin going two ways. If the price van break out above $580 and then successfully test this level on strong volume, then it will be time to go long Bitcoin. If however, all the momentum indicators are maxed out and are pointing back down whilst we are still sub $580, then short Bitcoin, looking to come out at any of a range of supports starting at $530-$540 down to $460 as an absolute lower limit. No chance are we going any lower than that. As a dedicated disciple of the Mighty Karhu, even I have to concede that $400 was the bottom.......for the time being at least and the time being is all that a trader cares about.

At the moment, a general declining in volume momentum above all else, suggests that the market is much more likely to go down from here rather than up. For the break out to occur, it would require a rather large influx of buying pressure to take Bitcoin up beyond this critical resistance level, and then hold it there.