Topic: TA 101 with MatTheCat. Critical Turning Point Ahead? - page 2. (Read 9732 times)

Not to get *totally* OT, but you a horn player?  

...I mean

Returns...big returns! 

*sings Calloway's I wanna be rich*

Bitcoin is not a normal market though, yet.

On the other hand, I could have just jumped all in when I bought my first speculative Bitcoin back in Nov 2013 and just held. Had I done that, I would be coming up to breaking even now instead of having made a ton of money. So there are definitely arguments to be said for trading.

As a buddy of mine has said to me... "Do you want action or returns?..."

Turns out you can lose. Some whale can come to market and send the market in the complete opposite direction of what it was heading in the most spectacular fashion. My short got margin called. A $666.67 loss I took on that, with all the other fees that the exchange steals from you not included.

Then on the rise, I thought I would be smart and try and trade the tops...turns out it wasn't so smart and I would end up buying back for more than I sold at, so I never tried to trade the $710 top. Now, that would have been smart. Instead, I sold 75% of what I had at $650, fearing a smack down that would wipe out all my profits....turns out, I burned myself again.......I am very bad at trading when the market is so intense. I cant trust any decision that I need to make in the heat of the moment when emotions come into play.

This market is enough to drive anyone to fkn distraction.

I see your sense of self importance his still intact. Good for you. If reading comprehension fails, then just pretend you know more than everyone else. I've got another great strategy, buy on one site and short on another you can't lose!  

What price did you end up buying in at bitcoinsrus?

P.S. He aint a wizard. He is a nutter. He was screaming at me to buy cheap coins at $820 not more than a month ago.



Same boat. If I wake up to $500 region Bitcoins tomorrow then that along with some of my shitty short trades of late, will swallow up all my profit over the past 10 days which would mean I have been banging my head at these charts for no reason. But I think I could take that better than waking up and seeing it $750 or whatever...which in comparison to today's massive rise, is relatively modest. Common sense tells me it must come down lower than what I re-bought in at (which was higher than I sold at), but if the same customer(s) turn up at the exchange tomorrow, as did today for round two of their buying program, then it will absolutely go through the roof once again.

I don't know. Probably higher than now, but maybe not.

It could all go to zero tomorrow.

As long as you remember that, and are cool with it if it happens, then you'll be fine.

I gave up and bought back in myself. There goes all the profit I made buying in mid $400s selling high $500s. I swear I've got to be the worst trader ever, I'm sure I will wake up to $500 coins now, just because I bought of course. At least I haven't lost any money, I just haven't made any yet. I suck.

   you must be some kind of wizard.  I plan to cold store until 2016 (or sooner).  What do you think the price would be in 1-2 yrs?

And just to totally tempt fate, I did give fair warning

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5469510

you can get it same day depending on who you bank with (urgent SEPA, but it costs 30GPB)

but in answer to the general question of "wheres all this buying coming from" did anyone really think that the gajillion dollars everyone "made" panic selling was going to be withdrawn and spent on hookers and blow?

its probably mostly waiting to buy back in cheaper. along with all the new money floating around that thought it might like a piece but was just waiting for the right time to buy.

like oda said "all the monkeys are just looking at each others bottom" or at least I think it was something like that

holding out for the best price, is just the other side of the coin of catching the falling knife.

if you didn't already do your averaging down during the latest ~70% off sale (70% interesting number it might very well be 68.2% depending on how you are measuring!) when everyone was shitting their pants that bitcoin was doomed (and I'm sure many still are)... well then I think you may have been looking at the wrong indicators. In fact the best TA opinion I read recently was the one that was correlating movement with phases of the moon. Human's are animals, evolution is just extra layers of paint on the same canvas.

now in the interests of fairness if you want to talk about *my* mistakes then just bring up mtgox and/or bitcoinbuilder I'm a big boy though. I knew what I was getting myself in to

full disclosure: currently 320% bitcoin and 0% fiat.

Yes, business days. I'm in the US so this is intl. wire I'm talking about
Those who live on the same continent as Stamp might be able to move money faster.

4/5 days max
If you're already verified

This can only be Ukraine situation.

Ukraine itself and the fear affecting the Russian economy.

The Ukraine withdrawal limit was announced only on Friday 28th, in which case the buying pressure today, was merely the fastest money to get out the country, or capital that was already on Bitstamp with much more in the wire to follow it.

I have just thrown all TA principles and caution out the window and have piled in on Bitstamp at $680...yep, it is down already. It might be down further by tomorrow, but that is the risk that I am taking.

I have become a HOLDER.

Wow, who saw that one coming?

I was afraid of this, I thought the longer term market trend would sustain; I was wrong and I got pinched.

I don't see this one turning back around. I think it's time to start considering that $550 could possibly be the new $130.

The people rushing in are likely looking for Haven Currencies; this might have some real strong legs if tensions continue to rise.

Im not taking anything away from them, I know I would not have been able to hold $10 coins past $100 - no freakin way. I tip my hat to them, but there just ain't any answers to help us. If you truly believe $5k this year then buy the shit out of it. If you don't, flipping a fucking coin at any point is just as good as reading posts.
Fwiw, I don't trust this bust out. I'm not buying anytime soon, if it's $800 tomorrow so be it.

At some point though, those early adopters bit the bullet and pulled the trigger on something that could have went to zero the next week.

Having short sold much of the way down, profiting but making terrible exit decisions, I bought on bounce at $480. I thought I was smart selling at $550 in front of a 5K Ask wall on Stamp.....that was devoured quite literally 2 minutes after I sold.

Had I just held those $480 coins, I would be sitting back laughing right now.

Most of these early adopters really have next to zero market acumen yet they all think they possess wisdom well beyond that of their follow mortal. Take billyjoeallen. One of the biggest idiots on the forum....yet maxed out credit card debt to get in on double digit Bitcoin. Is now fkn loaded.....and thinks he is smart, when he is anything but.

But what they did clearly have was gonads, or simply the luck to get in on Bitcoin when a small throw-away amount of money could have bought dozens or even treble figure amounts of Bitcoin. Bought and spent plenty single digit Bitcoins on Silk Road myself.

Depending on what the reason(s) were for these mass purchases that triggered the bull run. Bitcoin could rocket yet further skywards tomorrow, or fall right back down to the $500s.

For us late adopters who have had every chance to buy much lower and hold, but didn't do so cos we thought we had a decent enough grasp on the markets (until some X-Factor comes right in out of knowhere and blows the trends out the water), this dilemna is like a razer blade dancing around our throats.

I won't lie, I do feel this sentiment a little at times.  It does seem like it's very hard to get anywhere when you're looking up such a large mountain of coins at these big holders.

Doesn't mean I'm not going to try like hell, though!

Matt, there aren't any answers here. This forum basically consists of early adopters holding tons of coins bought cheap laughing their asses off at newcomers like us. No one knows dick about what will happen next, ta is next to worthless, it's just great entertainment for the lucky few.

I am in UK and this started at around 7am.

Huge amount of buying power in the form of buy tranches of up to 3K BTC at a time. Was so much grateful sellers that the price did not budge much, then the next large tranches came and then the next. By the final round of buy-in tranches, obviously Bitcoin went parabolic as every other Bitcoin investor in the land started panic buying. Seems to have calmed for now.

The 64K dollar questions are:

How long are these new price insensitive panic Bitcoin buyers going to hold to their coins for?

Will they be cashing them all out tomorrow when they arrive wherever they want them to go?

Will their be more rounds of mad buy-ins tomorrow?

If this is all due to Ukrainian capital flight/hedging against currency collapse, what are the routes for getting capital onto the exchanges? Just the same as for us, or do they need to take 'special' routes?

Knowing the answer to these questions could make the difference between waking up 20% in profit, or 20% (or even more) in deficit.