Topic: TA 101 with MatTheCat. Critical Turning Point Ahead? - page 4. (Read 9732 times)

what about eye doctor?

And why not?

I am not saying that it is definitely Ukraine, but that right there is a critical situation where a huge market may spring up for people who may think it as wise to hide their wealth in a form that they can still hold, deploy, or use within their own borders.

If you were a wealthy Ukrainian, wouldnt you be a tad worried that Putin might choose to march his forces right into Kiev and then turn around and take all your wealth from you?

No.

Even with my n00b TA 101 skills, I can tell that segeln's TA is bullshit.

(Es tut mir sehr Leid, dass ich Dir das sagen müss, aber es ist doch wahr!)

Make no mistake.

Bitcoin could go of scales here. And it is likely because of Ukraine,

At first I thought the surge in buying power was manipulation. But looking at it again, and it looks like inexperienced panic buyers. Massive orders being jacked right to spot price time and time again.

Why are they panicking to buy Bitcoin? Panicked hiding of wealth? Getting capital into a portable form that be stored and spent anywhere? Scared that if they leave funds in Ukraine banking system then they turn to dust?

*holds telescope to bad eye*

"I see no uptrend"

it`s a flag ,right
i see 2 uptrends. since october 2013 and even next to the flag

#2 is not a bull flag, and definitely not a pennant. To be a bull flag, there needs to be an uptrend to continue. Since it's not a flag off the 1163 top, there is no uptrend preceding it

1.box =lateral movement since beginning 2014
2.box =bullish flag/pennant
3.box =since 2013 accelerated upwards trend(secondary trend)
4.box=High April 2013 as resistance, now strong support
5.box=upwards trend since 2011(primary trend)

Edit:2.box=flag

MWAHAHAHA 

535BTC x 0.02248 = ~12 LTC





I went all in with that buy order
Too bad I was so slow and was not able to profit much from the other following dumps 

In downtrend you lose your net worth if you sell too late and buy too early, in uptrend you can just lose potential gains if you sell too early, specially if you are interested only in USD gains.

Isn't it harder to trade in bulltrend than beartrend? I would guess in downtrend there is no easy way to lose money if you sold little bit low, you just wait a bit longer but in uptrend you get left off the train more easily? I'm not picking up for an argue, I just want to learn!

I may have to eat my words on that.

But make no mistake. This move required 'Super Whale' to come to the rescue and push Bitcoin up beyond its critical resistance points. Otherwise it was going down hard and it still might.

Hopefully it can now hold up above them, and I can start making easy money trading in bull trend.

Got it. The  bolded part is what I  didn't get til now: you're essentially hedging in the same direction as your main trades go, and you're willing to accept the risk of a minor reduction in profits (your buys get filled, but you have to close your shorts higher than you opened them), but it protects your fiat value while allowing you to go long in case you caught a falling knife that carried too much momentum.

Much appreciated.

Say I have 20K on Bistamp and 10K on Bitfinex.

Say I am confident that Bitcoin is going to back down to lower 500 and middle 400 ranges. Say I shorted 10K USD, leveraged up to 20K USD worth of Bitcoins on Bitfinex.

Say my buy-ins are all triggered on average at 470. But shock horror, I called it horribly wrong and Bitcoin hits $240, bounces up to $380 then started trending down leaving me with what was 20K USD worth of Bitcoins. On my long trade, I lose. I am around $150 down on each Bitcoin. However, on my leveraged short trade I win. I shorted at $575 (tried to get in at $579 but the bots weren't having it). In such a scenario, I take profits on my short but I lose on my long and possibly more profits on my short than on my long (depending on how bad it is or isn't).

If on the otherhand, my trades come good, I get in at an average of 470, Bitcoin goes down to 430, but bounces right back out to $500 levels where it commences a clear recovery uptrend. Because I am totally negligent and have forgotten all about my short trade, worst comes to the worst and I get my short triggered at some $15 USD above my short sell price..... On my short trade, I take a minor loss, but I don't care about that cos I am seriously up on my long trade.

In the worst case scenario, Bitcoin goes to $10. My whole 20K of capital on Bitstamp is practically wiped out. Fkn disaster! Except that I can buy back 20 BTC at just $10 and keep the rest........oh shit....wait a minute......that leaves me with just 10K, and not 20K like I had before! Damn, I knew it sounded too good to be true!

But still, it keeps my arse well covered and allows me to take a long gamble on a flash crash that will likely occur when I am in my bed without the devastating consequences of mis-reading the magnitude of the drop entirely. Last time I had heavy buys was back in Dec 17th. I got in at average of $540, but Bitcoin went to $380. Unfortunately for me, I decided to start babysitting my negative investment (no TA 101 back in those days, traded purely on instinct/emotion) and watched with delight as it rose to over $550, then with horror as it sank down to below $500 and got stuck their. I lost my nerve and folded my hand at $490. What a huge disgusting error that was. I was butt-hurt for quite some time after that.....if only I knew about shorting Bitcoin back then, I would have been so much calmer about the whole thing.

Of course, what might happen is that Bitcoin retraces to just above my buy in tranches and my stop gets triggered on bounce, and I take a loss.

Or perhaps I am totally fkn wrong and Bitcoin is due for a sudden surge of buying power which will cause a break out confirming the head and shoulders at 530 - 400 - 535, in which case my stop loss will be triggered, and I take a small loss.

However, all I can do is trade to the best of what my common sense and more importantly, my intuition tells me. It tells me we are going right back down there, but at this point, I can't detect that I have any Bitcoin fear. Infact, I am starting to feel quietly positive about for first time in a long time, although I can sense the fear in the air.

Been trading in a very narrow range on ultra low volume for quite some time now. When the action comes, it should prove to be swift and all signs are pointing to down action at the time being.

Yeah, "can't loose" strategies do not exist - and the more you are hedging your position, the more you have to pay for this by limiting potential gains. Unless you are hedging only against "possible" scenarios, dismissing many others as "impossibles"?

I understand how he address this, for example I think the price is going to fall to 350, my goal is to buy 100 BTC what I would do is the next, open orders at:

5BTC    520
5BTC    500
5BTC    470
20BTC  430
20BTC  410
20BTC  380
25BTC  355



you lower the risk of missing the bottom
 

For someone who keeps insisting he's just now at Trading 101, you sure seem to have a clear idea of how to insure yourself against market reactions you consider less likely than the ones you're betting on dominantly.

I can't say I understand how what you describe would work. It seems to me that if your "hedge" (the leveraged short) is sufficiently big to cover a loss in your main investment, then it should also be big enough to substantially reduce your profit in case the main scenario takes place and your hedge is at a loss. Care to run it down for me? Doesn't have to be the actual numbers obviously.

"I can afford to have my buy-in tranches where they are as I can't lose. Even if if Bitcoin goes considerably lower and only rebounds up to the point of my lowest bid, I will have a leveraged short position that will cover me from any losses I take from aiming too high."

You know as well as I that the possibility of a near total price collapse exists. However unlikely the scenario, it could dip into double digits in a matter of minutes, rebounding to $100. Saying you can't lose sound like famous last words.

Is this trench talk?

"Tally Ho Chaps!" "First one to kick the football into the Hun's machine gun nest wins a bottle of General Fontleroy-Smythe's finest whiskey!"

"Hip Hip Hooray, Hip Hip Hooray, Hip Hip......."

"For King and country lads!" "Chaaaaaaaaaaarge!"







This piece of TA 101 speculating on inverse head and shoulders break out was only relevant yesterday. That chance has gone. The price trends further and further away from the $580 resistance, on ultra low volume. On Bitstamp it seems to be mostly bots trading, desperately trying to rig the numbers that go into everyone's favourite indicators in order to hopefully influence indicator based market behaviour....but the market isn't having it. We are trending lower, the volume has been abysmal and it is not so much a case that sellers are refusing to sell, but that buyers are simply not interested at these prices, in these market conditions. This can mean only one thing.

It is no longer a matter of if we will go down, but when, and how far. There are strong technical and fundamental indicators that provide a pretty good argument for both $400 being the bottom, and for $400 being a mere Gox inspired outlier on a long term bear trend that is set to continue.

I am putting my bets on a higher low somewhere in $400 - $500. After this I am speculating that Bitcoin will go onto make a temporary recovery, taking out upper bear trend line that has been with us for the past month. But plenty much more experienced Bitcoiners than me are adamant that we will be seeing lower lows in the near future and will be betting big on it.

I can afford to have my buy-in tranches where they are as I can't lose. Even if if Bitcoin goes considerably lower and only rebounds up to the point of my lowest bid, I will have a leveraged short position that will cover me from any losses I take from aiming too high.

What precautions are you taking to protect your USD?

like i said. you are taking the same shit in every thread.  "100 bitcoin happening soon."

if you think that, post an escrow bet offer. otherwise put your tail between your legs and slink away.