Them some sweet sweet divs. This first month will be the best, but it'll still be worth keeping it in here for ~8 months. After 8 months it'll prob be at 5% APY which is OK if stable.
You have not done research on the network difficulty.Perhaps not enough, but anything is a guess without knowing how ASIC shipments will play out.
I guestimated based on coinish.com's calculator (rather than $2.66, it was at $62.6 with 0 months as time to delivery) with an increase in difficulty of 1.3% per day that it will be 23x now in 8 months (so around 300 mil). If the APY is around 120% now, it could be 5% in 8 months.
Whatever, if it's 5 months or it's 2%, the point is it'll be good holding onto it up to 5% APY anyway. Before we hit even 15% I don't expect people to be dropping out, YABMC is still going good.
You won't have the option of holding onto it at 5% APY.
What you and lots of others have missed is the detail of the buyback clause.
"The issuer reserves the right to buy back bonds at a price equal to 110% of the highest price the asset was traded for over the prior 7 days or 200 times the value of the most recent dividend."
200 times last dividend means under 29 weeks dividend. If APY falls to 5% of sales price then that means he can buy back for ~3% of sales price. I'd expect forced buy back to be WELL before that point.
Right now the buy-back price is about 20% over trading price. In about 3 difficulty changes' time it'll become profitable for him to buy back (even counting the dividends paid in the interim). I'd expect him to wait longer than that - as there's more profit to be made letting difficulty rise a bit more first.
I've nothing at all against this sort of offering - I'm working on one myself. But the buyback at under 30 weeks payout makes this a losing proposition for anyone other than TAT or people who flip shares fast - until their price falls a lot when some opportunities for profit WILL arise.
I've flipped all mine (for my fund) for a profit now - which is why I'm only explaining this now rather than earlier. As an approximation, to stand a reasonable chance of making a profit on this you need to be buying at around half the current buy-back price (at 200 days' dividend). I'm not going to explain all the math behind that - but try modelling with any reasonable prediction of network difficulty and you'll end up around that ball-park.
The devil is ALWAYS in the detail - in this case the detail of buy-back rights.
