Technological unemployment is (almost) here - page 14.

SMB-2525

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Quote from: Nicolas Dorier on August 10, 2014, 10:35:58 AM

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training workers to do certain tasks are not easy

I agree. Like I said, I am trainer and this is really really hard to teach to people that stopped learning anything several years ago. The learning part of their brain is completely off.
However, they stopped learning because they did not have the need. If it becomes mandatory, I guess workers will adapt to it and become self taught, and, I hope that my job as a trainer will become useless.
I think the current kids at in technological school are aware of that and will be better adapted.

I don't think it is a good policy to purposefully protect old jobs that does not require knowledge when the industry clearly need knowledge worker.
Such policy is preventing adaptation from happening.

As mentioned above, there are skills shortages in a number of information technology areas. Part of the problem companies face with company paid training is worker turnover can be high. It is difficult to bring in people in their 40s or 50s and pay then enough to support a family while they are learning their job. From the worker perspective, we expect them to retrain themselves while they are struggling to support a family.

In addition, older workers have difficulty learning new skills. It is very hard for me to get myself to learn an new programming language.

Nicolas Dorier

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Quote

The cost of replacement is high

In a a real free market, you will get capital if it is profitable to pay for the cost.

Quote

training workers to do certain tasks are not easy

I agree. Like I said, I am trainer and this is really really hard to teach to people that stopped learning anything several years ago. The learning part of their brain is completely off.
However, they stopped learning because they did not have the need. If it becomes mandatory, I guess workers will adapt to it and become self taught, and, I hope that my job as a trainer will become useless.
I think the current kids at in technological school are aware of that and will be better adapted.

I don't think it is a good policy to purposefully protect old jobs that does not require knowledge when the industry clearly need knowledge worker.
Such policy is preventing adaptation from happening.

Leina

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Quote from: Nicolas Dorier on August 09, 2014, 07:16:36 PM

Quote

While it may be true that certain jobs get boosted because of technology. Facts remain as technology get more advance, there will be more surplus of labor that has to go somewhere.

Technology is a tree, everytimes technologies are appearing, several specialization and combination of them of it appears.
Computing gives rise to AI, cloud computing, web design, photoshop expert, mobile designer, SEO, community managers, developers, embedded device developers, system developers, designers.
The more we know the more there is to know, the more specialization appear and merge of knowledge between seemingly disparate fields. (Nano technology, bio technology)

Human knowledge is a fractal, the more you zoom, the more branches appears, and the perimeter increase to infinity.
And the farther we go the faster it zooms.

Sure we'll need at one point to be life long learners (as a developer, I am), and it will be hard to adapt for some people... And it is already hard, as a trainer, I can tell you that old developers have a hard time following what is going on.

This is an amazing time, truly amazing, but adaptation is becoming even more important than before.

Specialization has its own downfall. The cost of replacement is high and training workers to do certain tasks are not easy.

Nicolas Dorier

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Quote

While it may be true that certain jobs get boosted because of technology. Facts remain as technology get more advance, there will be more surplus of labor that has to go somewhere.

Technology is a tree, everytimes technologies are appearing, several specialization and combination of them of it appears.
Computing gives rise to AI, cloud computing, web design, photoshop expert, mobile designer, SEO, community managers, developers, embedded device developers, system developers, designers.
The more we know the more there is to know, the more specialization appear and merge of knowledge between seemingly disparate fields. (Nano technology, bio technology)

Human knowledge is a fractal, the more you zoom, the more branches appears, and the perimeter increase to infinity.
And the farther we go the faster it zooms.

Sure we'll need at one point to be life long learners (as a developer, I am), and it will be hard to adapt for some people... And it is already hard, as a trainer, I can tell you that old developers have a hard time following what is going on.

This is an amazing time, truly amazing, but adaptation is becoming even more important than before.

transient858

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Quote from: Nicolas Dorier on August 09, 2014, 05:38:44 PM

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on August 09, 2014, 03:16:05 PM

Quote from: giantdragon on August 08, 2014, 09:52:54 PM

@Nicolas Dorier, you repeat a common fallacy ignoring the total number of jobs automated vs pittance of new intellectual positions created.

... maybe you should ask Oprah and Jerry Springer about why that is ... ?

What I know is that the software industry has a painfull lack of human resources, and it will not stop.
I benefit from the shortage, my business as software development Trainer and consultant is going so well Cheesy

Jobs are not static they just evolve to something different, because needs become different.
I don't believe a world where there is no need left to satisfy because everything is handled by robot. On the contrary, the more technology advances, more we need stuff, and the more we need stuff, the more business opportunity there is.

But I admit there can be a temporary mismatch between skills in the market and their needs.

While it may be true that certain jobs get boosted because of technology. Facts remain as technology get more advance, there will be more surplus of labor that has to go somewhere.

Nicolas Dorier

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Activity: 714

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Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on August 09, 2014, 03:16:05 PM

Quote from: giantdragon on August 08, 2014, 09:52:54 PM

@Nicolas Dorier, you repeat a common fallacy ignoring the total number of jobs automated vs pittance of new intellectual positions created.

... maybe you should ask Oprah and Jerry Springer about why that is ... ?

What I know is that the software industry has a painfull lack of human resources, and it will not stop.
I benefit from the shortage, my business as software development Trainer and consultant is going so well Cheesy

Jobs are not static they just evolve to something different, because needs become different.
I don't believe a world where there is no need left to satisfy because everything is handled by robot. On the contrary, the more technology advances, more we need stuff, and the more we need stuff, the more business opportunity there is.

But I admit there can be a temporary mismatch between skills in the market and their needs.

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: giantdragon on August 08, 2014, 09:52:54 PM

@Nicolas Dorier, you repeat a common fallacy ignoring the total number of jobs automated vs pittance of new intellectual positions created.

... maybe you should ask Oprah and Jerry Springer about why that is ... ?

giantdragon

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@Nicolas Dorier, you repeat a common fallacy ignoring the total number of jobs automated vs pittance of new intellectual positions created.

TaunSew

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By the time robots remove most manual labour most white collar work would be gone too.

Sure It's easy to replace truck drivers as they drive on a static circuit of roads which never really changes.

It's another to replace something like a plumber who has to navigate through obstacles (conduits, underneath buildings, ladders, et cetera) in an unmapped strange environment and then constantly problem solve. You'll sooner see legal software replace most paralegals and lawyers. Likewise software and rudimentary robots which can replace General Physicians and Nurses.

Nicolas Dorier

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Robot will remove surely all purely manual work. But I think there is time to pass before it happens.
A Robot does what we tell him, and there always be a need for people that can tell robot what to do, it is not the robot that make business but individuals.

The jobs will move from manual (I define as any repeating job) to intellectual, everybody will be store managers, business creators, programmers, designers of all kind or scientists.
Our mind can't be emulated by computer. Artificial intelligence can do very impressive tasks, but can't trade and decide by itself without the brain that know how to use it.

There is room for everyone.... but I admit that if the transition happens too quickly, there will be a war between manual and intellectual workers.
Intellectuals will need to work for subsidy to the manuals... The only end I see is intellectuals moving to the black market. But maybe I'm looking too far.

giantdragon

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WIRED wrote about this topic:
http://www.wired.com/2014/08/when-robots-take-all-the-work-whatll-be-left-for-us-to-do/

pawel7777

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Quote from: Nicolas Dorier on August 08, 2014, 12:42:53 PM

This did not pass.

Imagine you have a business then you need labor. But your business is economically profitable only for labor at 1000 CHF.
How do you find your labor when unconditional income is coming ?
And labor worth 1000CHF will just stop working because not economically profitable.

Unconditional money is killing the definition of money.
Money is the device into which you store your effort.
If unconditional, then money will store the effort of someone else. And you'll grant your right to use someone's else effort for your own benefit. You are a looter.
If money store no effort, then it will stop being valuable, since you'll not be able to trade it anymore.

I know they did not pass, just pointed that such idea is being seriously considered.

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Imagine you have a business then you need labor. But your business is economically profitable only for labor at 1000 CHF.

What if minimum wage is 1001 CHF? Or better yet, what if unemployment benefit is 800 or 900? Who would work if he/she could do nothing for only 100 - 200 CHF less? It's more likely you'll find someone who would like to earn additional 1000 on top of his UI.

The UI idea can be just the extension of the benefit system, it could simplify things and, in effect reduce the administration costs.

But to be clear, I'm only in favour of UI idea in the context of technological problem becoming real issue. In the 'normal' conditions (when enough work is available) I'm 100% against it.

Nicolas Dorier

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Quote from: pawel7777 on August 08, 2014, 11:08:54 AM

Quote from: giveBTCpls on August 07, 2014, 06:40:26 PM

3D printers will be key. When 3D printers are affordable and everyone and their mother has one and they just can download open source free printeable materials ranging from simple figures to complex machines and assemble them, the industry will collapse since most of it will be do-it-yourself, there's no monterary system that can survive when technology goes this far. Deal with it.

I see much more 'damage' coming from things like self-operating cars, or advancing in software that could replace (or massively reduce) customer service staff.

Technological unemployment is a real thing, simply there may be nowhere to go for the human labour. And if any new markets emerge, these too will likely be massively automated. The current technology is already advanced enough to replace quite significant % of man labour, it just hasn't been implemented yet.

Some sort of unconditional income is a way better idea than centrally planned economy.

Looks like Switzerland is heading that way:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/04/us-swiss-pay-idUSBRE9930O620131004

This did not pass.

Imagine you have a business then you need labor. But your business is economically profitable only for labor at 1000 CHF.
How do you find your labor when unconditional income is coming ?
And labor worth 1000CHF will just stop working because not economically profitable.

Unconditional money is killing the definition of money.
Money is the device into which you store your effort.
If unconditional, then money will store the effort of someone else. And you'll grant your right to use someone's else effort for your own benefit. You are a looter.
If money store no effort, then it will stop being valuable, since you'll not be able to trade it anymore.

pawel7777

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Quote from: giveBTCpls on August 07, 2014, 06:40:26 PM

3D printers will be key. When 3D printers are affordable and everyone and their mother has one and they just can download open source free printeable materials ranging from simple figures to complex machines and assemble them, the industry will collapse since most of it will be do-it-yourself, there's no monterary system that can survive when technology goes this far. Deal with it.

I see much more 'damage' coming from things like self-operating cars, or advancing in software that could replace (or massively reduce) customer service staff.

Technological unemployment is a real thing, simply there may be nowhere to go for the human labour. And if any new markets emerge, these too will likely be massively automated. The current technology is already advanced enough to replace quite significant % of man labour, it just hasn't been implemented yet.

Some sort of unconditional income is a way better idea than centrally planned economy.

Looks like Switzerland is heading that way:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/04/us-swiss-pay-idUSBRE9930O620131004

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: giveBTCpls on August 07, 2014, 06:40:26 PM

3D printers will be key. When 3D printers are affordable and everyone and their mother has one and they just can download open source free printeable materials ranging from simple figures to complex machines and assemble them, the industry will collapse since most of it will be do-it-yourself, there's no monterary system that can survive when technology goes this far. Deal with it.

Most people can't even assemble Ikea furniture.........

If things are engineered with universal designs and interchangeable parts, then things will be much easier to manufacture and maintain. Open source ecology is a project leading in this field.

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universal civilian pay or it's game over Embarrassed

giantdragon

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Quote from: am on August 08, 2014, 08:13:12 AM

That's probably plausible but any sane person/people should reject this.

When tech unemployment will hit hard desperate masses will simply pitchfork this "sane" person! Grin

am

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Quote

Alternative solution is to reject free market capitalism entirely and switch to the planned economy.

That's probably plausible but any sane person/people should reject this. Capitalistic societies move the world forward.

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Just to give the Luddites a shiver up their spine ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-07/minimum-wage-hikers-worst-enemy-spotted-china

... and if you truly cannot see any new frontiers your imagination is as devoid as your faith in humanity ... try looking up?

giveBTCpls

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3D printers will be key. When 3D printers are affordable and everyone and their mother has one and they just can download open source free printeable materials ranging from simple figures to complex machines and assemble them, the industry will collapse since most of it will be do-it-yourself, there's no monterary system that can survive when technology goes this far. Deal with it.

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