Topic: Tennis League All Thread - page 514. (Read 201120 times)

The answer is pretty simple: Odds

The data I checked is only for 2019 and he won 83.08% of his matches that year. 83.08% in terms of odds is ~1.20. His average odds when winning a match in 2019 were only ~1.13. So with flat staking you needed him to win 8 matches, before you could compensate one loss money-wise. But in reality he only won 5 matches on average before losing one.

Ok, I found the link thanks mate. So I guess Roger is really looking forward to compete after he recovered from his injury. And basing on that video, it looks like he has recovered tremendously. But that video doesn't say anything at all though. The test of his injury will be really on a match in a center court.

@tyKiwanuka - thanks for the data as well. I wonder though why Novak is in the negative when he was in the winning stretch 2018-2019. Maybe I'm missing something here.

This is not some official ATP data. It's from a database, where I then analyzed how the Top10 players did betting-wise in 2018/2019. So, if there will be any more matches played in 2020, of course there will be data (and odds) that could be analyzed by interested people.

Tennis and especially the tournaments live very much from ticket sales/spectators/crowd, so while I think football will resume in May in some countries, Tennis is still far away from that. Otoh for WTA tournaments in China it basically makes no difference if it's offically with or without spectators, since no one attends anyway

Out of curiosity I have now checked, how the players that finished 2018 in Top10 have done in 2019 season. The results are pretty bad.

Player	Won	Lost	W/L ratio	Net win*	Yield
________________________	______	______	____________	____________	____________
Novak Djokovic	54	11	83.08%	-413.30	-6.4%
Rafael Nadal	52	7	88.14%	+75.60	+1.3%
Roger Federer	51	10	83.61%	+91.10	+1.5%
Alexander Zverev	41	24	63.08%	-528.60	-8.1%
Juan Martin del Potro	8	4	66.67%	-95.80	-8.0%
Kevin Anderson	11	4	73.33%	-25.30	-1.7%
Marin Cilic	22	19	53.66%	-1008.60	-24.6%
Dominic Thiem	46	17	73.02%	+1651.50	+26.2%
Kei Nishikori	29	14	67.44%	-549.90	-12.8%
John Isner	29	17	63.04%	-95.80	-4.6%

*with flat stake 100,- Euro per bet

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Only Thiem is saving this from being a complete disaster. Overall a total loss of 1012.60 Euro with a -2.2% yield (tbf Anderson and Del Potro had injury-plagued seasons). What springs out, is that all players, that were eliminated from Top10 during last season (Isner, del Potro, Nishikori, Anderson, Cilic) are 30+ years of age.

@pakhitheboss indeed it’s very sad that we won’t get to see Wimbledon this year, and what I don’t understand is why couldn’t they postpone it why make the fans suffer due to corona. Furthermore the only silver lightning is that Federer has confirmed that he is going to play in the 2021 Wimbledon, because I was expecting him to retire as the Wimbledon was canceled.

Source:

https://www.essentiallysports.com/roger-federer-announces-big-news-concerning-retirement-halle-open-atp-tennis-news/

That is true mate, players will adapt to the situation that they are given however I still think that match fitness might effect some players once tennis is back up and running again. We now know that Wimbledon will be cancelled and the French Open but there is still hope for the US Open which is played in September and maybe they could even push it back a month if things haven't got better by then. Like I have said, the main concern I have is the money side as the economy will most likely be in bad shape once we come out of this and maybe there won't be much funding to host sporting events. I hope it doesn't come to this but it could happen.

Sad to hear this news.

Every sporting event has been cancelled or postponed. The fate of earth now lies in the hand of this virus. The world has been brought to a complete halt. Without a single sporting event life in lockdown is simply miserable.

Yes, but this is a bit expected. After such a monster year, it's hard to keep the focus and younger athletes often lack consistency. Federer, Nadal and Djokovic are just a league of their own. Not only in terms of achievements, but in being able to stay at the top for ages and always being ultra-competitive. They have that little extra, what I don't see in any of the young guns tbh. Once the big3 retire, I see a wide open field in ATP, with lots of different winners for the Masters/GS. Comparable to what we can already see in WTA.

Medvedevs stats for 2020:

W/L: 8-4 (66.66%)
Net win with 100,- flat stake: -256.40
Yield: -21.4%

That W/L ratio looks still fine, but he is priced so low all the times (due to 2019 results), that the profits from wins are too smallish to make up for the losses.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/tennis/2020/0401/1127890-wimbledon-cancelled-for-first-time-in-75-years/

Wimbledon is definitively called off this season, will not be postponed, it is first time since WWII

Here you go: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvmIy2T8meU. You can simply search it in Google.

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@vella85 - As I have said, athletes have learn to adapt at the current situation. As you can see in the video, specially in the last seconds, you can clearly see him somewhat wanted to smash a winner, LOL. I think he is very eager to get in the game now, because even in snow he can still pull that trick shot.

@tyKiwanuka - Medvedev had good break out year in 2019, but sadly though, in the first half of the year, or least prior to the suspension because of the Covid-19, he has somewhat playing flat at up that point.

You should have post the link here mate.

So that's it, Federer is really looking for his comeback after that injury. Obviously, he has age, but I think he really wanted to stay sharp that's why he is slowly practicing even in snow. Yes, it is a good sign but for now everything is still on hold. Everyone is making the best of themselves to just stay fit coz God knows when we are going to see the next grand slam.

I did some stats for the current ATP's Top10 and how they have done betting-wise in 2019 on the tour. All data and odds was taken from OnCourt; they have Pinnacle odds, which are pretty accurate on average. The standard w/o rules of 1st set completed for bets to stand apply.

ATP's Top10 betting results in 2019

Player	Won	Lost	W/L ratio	Net win*	Yield
________________________	______	______	____________	____________	____________
Novak Djokovic	54	11	83.08%	-413.30	-6.4%
Rafael Nadal	52	7	88.14%	+75.60	+1.3%
Dominic Thiem	46	17	73.02%	+1651.50	+26.2%
Roger Federer	51	10	83.61%	+91.10	+1.5%
Daniil Medwedew	58	21	73.42%	+1054.10	+13.3%
Stefanos Tsitsipas	53	25	67.95%	+1487.90	+19.1%
Alexander Zverev	41	24	63.08%	-528.60	-8.1%
Matteo Berrettini	42	23	64.62%	+1253.40	+19.3%
Gael Monfils	37	18	67.27%	+170.40	+3.1%
David Goffin	35	26	57.38%	-840.00	-13.8%

*with flat stake 100,- Euro per bet

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With betting on the Top10 every match throughout 2019 and using flat stakes of 100,- Euro per bet, you would have won 4002.10 Euro, equalling a yield of 6.1%, which is pretty good. But it's not that easy. You have four players that basically make you all your money: Thiem, Medwedew, Berrettini and Tsitsipas. And this is no surprise, since these are rising players, that played a very good season, so the markets took some time to adjust the odds. With the old top players like Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, there is not a lot of money to be made, you are more likely to lose here. I am not surprised about Goffin doing so poor, he was never a reliable favourite to bet on imo.

This way of looking at things is of course flawed, since it's only done in retroperspective - the Top10 looked different at the start of 2019. The Medwedews, Thiems, Berretinis, Tsitsipas' played better than one would have expected and thats why they finished Top10 eoy. So you could make money with them. Analyzing the betting results from the Top10 at the start of 2019 throughout the year, will lead to horrible results I guess.

These patterns happen every season. The difficulty lies in finding the players that will shine and those that will fade. But if you are able to spot these players, you can make money, by just blindly betting/opposing them.

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If you are interested in the stats of particular players, just shoot and I will post his results.

Did anyone see the news about Federer practising in the snow hitting the ball against the wall. At least he is back practising which is a good sign but like we have been saying its not the same as match fitness but that goes for all the players right now.

There is not any secure place in the earth right now where Grand Slams should take place.
The positive thing is that many tennis players are donating money in order to tackle this coronavirus outbreak. As tennis is one of the richest sports in the earth it is a very optimistic thing to do.

Now payments are really matter of worry for many sports associations because today I was ready  England Cricket Board is going to face some serious problems in coming days same happening in Australian Cricket Board and many other big Associations are in trouble just because of we have no events going to happen in near future so same problem are going to happen in Tennis Associations and players as many are not rich like big ones so they can face serious troubles in near future.

I agree, the rest of the Grand Slams are going to be held in US/EU the most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, outside of China so I'm not expecting any tournaments this year unless it is really safe for everyone involved in the games. I guess every players should reinvented themselves, just to keep the busy and stay fit. The only problem I see, just like the rest of sporting events that is being cancelled is the rest of the support system. I mean where are those people going to get their paycheck when there are no games?

Yeah you are right because it is impossible for the Grand Slam tournamnet to be held without spectators, because the audience is also an income for the organizing committee.

The conditions that occur are truly beyond the expectations of the tennis players, but that's what they can do now while maintaining their body stay fit compared to many people out there who become stressed out because of difficulty in getting food and also losing their jobs.

The bad thing with this virus is that we will most likely not see any tennis this year. Most virus cases are in the countries where the grand slams are played so I can't see it happening this year. Like we have been discussing here, its going to be tough for the players mentally because playing is a big difference then just training and keeping fit. I'm sure that most will stay fit ready but being lock in your home for long periods of time will have an effect on some players. We are seeing this with every day people right now as people are going crazy being locked up. Lets just hope we see tennis return in 2021.