Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 251. (Read 58668 times)

I didn't think about it particularly in regards to NFL, since I am not betting it very seriously, but more for the fun of it. What I learned by betting the german Bundesliga is, that there is basically no home advantage no more - there seems to actually be an away advantage Last 9 rounds after Corona break went 26-19-37, so 32% home wins, 23% draws and a whopping 45% away wins. It got a bit better for the home teams in the end, at some point there were only 11% home wins.

These numbers are not only caused by lack of fan support, but also because the refs are not that biased with no home crowd around, that could cheer them into some decision (even with VAR available). Now I don't think the fans can influence the refs into some decisions in the NFL like they can do in soccer, but the absence of fan support should result in the home teams having less home advantage. But as far as I know, it's still not yet decided, if there will be no spectators at all or maybe at 50% stadium capacity or whatever.

With reduced preparation/pratice time, this will definitely be advantageous for teams like the Chiefs, who were able keep everyone. If you have a lot of young and new players and maybe a new QB on top of that, you are doomed imo, since it takes a lot of time to get everyone in sync (and NFL ready for the young players).

There was a team in german Bundesliga that had to go into 2-week quarantine shortly before the season resumed. When they were allowed to play again, they were completely lost, because practice is so very different to in-competition (and the teams they played already had 2-3 matches under their belt). You need more than some days of practice after a long-ish break to get match-fit again. So if certain teams get more practice time than others, that should give them an advantage as well. Especially in such a physical and sophisticated sport that American Football is.

For the sake of sparking some discussion, I'm wondering: how do you use the coronavirus mess (introduction of unknowns and special circumstances) to get an edge when placing a bet? I'm curious to know if you've thought about it. Perhaps some players will be more warmed up and better practiced than others? Or is there a rule that says all teams must get an equal amount of practice time?

I don't really care if they have to cancel the preseason as those games are always a toss-up and rather meaningless. But I can't help but think there's an introduction of extra risk by going straight into the regular season without any kind of "warmup" games. Perhaps even a higher chance of injury to starters.

I was just commenting in the other thread about fake noise/crowds for the NFL: let's hope the virus is better contained by September. I really don't want to have to endure the artificial aspects, seems like a buzzkill.

Hehe, although I called the Pats fans, I am happy with every opinion in fact This thread needs some more action again, we are not that far away from September anymore and it will be a special season with a lot of unknowns and special circumstances.


Source: https://twitter.com/AndrewBrandt/status/1276138959098257409

Now the above won't happen, but next season could see some very weird dynamics due to all the Corona-related issues. Teams that are in rebuild mode will have a disadvantage in comparison to teams that were able to keep their core players and/or don't have a new QB.


It certainly won't be as easy as it used to be, but they are priced more or less the same as the Bills for winning AFC East. Jets/Dolphins won't stand any chance imo and the Bills, well, they are the Bills and not the best run organisation. And don't forget, that there will be an additional wild card per conference starting this season

I think the Pats are gonna end the season with their worst record in quite some time, may not even make it to the playoffs. But I'm obviously not a Pats fan tho so my opinion probably isn't the one you wanted. Looking at the current SB odds, Pats are +2500... the 9th team down the line, this is already the lowest they've been for several years for this time of year.

At least Cam Newton has creative charactering in his social media.

So the Patriots signed Cam Newton to a one year deal, which was a bit expected. It gets me excited tbh, because I am super curious what BB can (still) do with him and what will happen to the Patriots offensive scheme, if Newton will win the starting job.

I know a lot of people are not very high on Newton (anymore) and he had his fair share of health issues in the last years, but BB can do magic. What do all the Patriots fans in here think about the signing ?

I love the Babylon Bee.  I've been tricked by it before; someone shares a link, and I don't pay close attention to the site, just the article.  Usually by the second or third paragraph it becomes obvious.

There may be some far left liberals that actually do hate America, but they're not quite so overt about it as this:

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I've been watching the EPL games on the telly while doing some work at home, just kind of to add atmosphere.  It's kind of strange to have soccer on this time of year, but it's even more strange with the canned crowd noise.  It reminds me of the laugh-track on those really cheesy sit-coms. 

I also noticed it's not compatible with my soccer-watching habits:  I usually put a sports game on the TV while I'm washing dishes or doing something repetitive that takes a little but not much attention.  Usually this allows me to get some stuff done, and watch the game without paying close attention to the TV, because when something really exciting happens in the game the crowd noise will draw my attention.  This isn't the case with the canned noise.  I wish the EPL would cut that shit out, just having the natural noise of the game the way it is would be better, in my opinion. 

Yep, we have it in german Bundesliga. They do take the audio tracks from pre-Corona matches and put it in. It gives some atmosphere to otherwise backyard soccer feeling, where you just hear some people talk/scream, but often times the sound is not in sync with what happens on the pitch, which makes it kind of annoying then again It's not like there is suddenly a "goal scream" from 50k people - these are cut out - but when there is a last minute counter-attack from home team, you normally have some roar in the stands and everyone going crazy, but you just hear some general singing for now. It's not perfect, but better than nothing.

I think/hope the NFL will have some more sophisticated solution, since they are generally better with these things and have more time to prepare for it. But maybe there will already be spectators allowed come September; 50% capacity with every second seat empty or things like that. Sport needs spectators and real atmosphere.

LOL bro that's a satire site, kind of like The Onion but a bit more edgy.


I'm thinking they'll definitely reopen in time for preseason, even if the stands have to be empty. I heard about how they were putting in fake crowd noise and even fake crowds (digitally rendered crowds) into soccer games. While that aspect makes the whole thing sound cheesy, it certainly is better than the stupid "virtual sports" games that have been popping up on the sportsbooks.

I tried my hardest to get into esports but its just not happening. I can watch a whole CS:GO match but would rather not have to learn enough about it to competently bet on it.

I think you didn't get the sarcasm But there are other companies that took or will take some measures, like Uncle Ben's

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Eagles OG Brandon Brooks tore his achilles some days ago, which is a big blow for Philly, since Brooks is probably the best guard in the NFL. Word is, they are maybe looking for Thuney from the Patriots or bringing Jason Peters back to compensate that loss, but he would have to switch from left to right side, which is not easy also considering his age.

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I hope the Corona situation gets better soon in the US - in general of course, but also for my very selfish reasons. Players from Cowboys and Texans tested positive in recent days and a player from the 49ers tested positive as well now, with more test results from other players to come. Clemson University has 23 positive football players The resumed european soccer seasons seem to go well Corona-wise, but if you have players from NFL teams being tested positive left and right, I don't know how they will be able to start the season (and preparing properly for it).

The democrat supporting liberal left people in mainstream media has again put their noses where it should not be. The Patriots have been called the Patriots for 60 years. Why would they change their brand because a few communists demand it?

Also, why did the Washington Post editor approve this article? I shake my head.


The Washington Post published an editorial today calling on the New England Patriots to change their team name due to its association with the United States of America.

The article called for the Patriots to change their team name immediately to something that doesn't imply they are proud of their country.

"The negative associations with the horrible country of America should be left in the past," the editorial board wrote. "This name is very offensive to austere religious scholars in other countries, liberals, and Canadians. We must call on the NFL to do better, to be better."

"They must change the name to something that signals that they are not proud to live in this country."

Source https://babylonbee.com/news/washington-post-calls-on-patriots-to-change-offensive-name

If I was in the position of having to defend myself in court I would like my lawyer to use the Chewbacca defense since it seems quite effective.




You were not alone, OJ was not just a NFL player he was a star, he even made it to the NFL 100th Anniversary All-Time Team, and he had accumulated a lot of good will during his career and he was even an actor at some point, so it was natural that those that were aware of his achievements at first would not believe he was capable of something like that but the evidence is very telling.

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Keeping up with the Joneses and lifestyle inflation are some of the main reasons people do not seem to get ahead no matter how much money they earn since each time they get an increase on their income instead of saving a portion of it they spend it all dooming themselves to live paycheck to paycheck and if anything out of the ordinary happens, like this pandemic, they suddenly find themselves in economic troubles.


And things could be even worse than the statistics report, after all if you take out of the equation the highest paid players which are making more than 10 million per year then the percentage of broke players should be even higher.

As far as I know professional leagues like the NFL and the NBA do have programs to help rookie players to learn how to manage their finances but obviously the programs have failed to reach their objective.


I tell you the Chewbacca defense is quite effective, when O.J. lawyers used it he got free and when they did not he lost, I see a pattern here.  


It was just a small recommendation you can watch what you may like, personally I am currently spending most of my free time reading all the books I had on my to-do list.

Yes, it's very sad, but also understandable to some extent. They earn good money at a young age already often coming from a financially poor background. All of sudden, they have a lot of money and are overwhelmed dealing with it, because they never learned it. And then there is some competition going on in the locker room, where people brag about houses, cars, jewelry and whatever. So they probably feel urged to belong to that "club" and spend money they should better save for the future. Once their career is over, not much of that money is left, but they still have lots of cost with maintaining houses, cars and their general lifestyle, but no income no more.  


I did watch a loooong documentary about this case some years ago and enjoyed it. Iirc, it was just this glove that didn't fit his hand properly that made him being acquitted - always helpful to invest in good lawyers But he still served some time prison anyway for other misdemeanors.

I really enjoy these documentaries and not only NFL or sports related ones. I spent hours and hours on Youtube watching videos about the Madeleine McCann case from Portugal in 2007, which is so mysterious until today. Poor girl whatever happened.

I will check out the other documentaries you mentioned.

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Great post overall DireWolfM14


I can't help but think, that he hated himself for being gay. He was always told being gay is bad, he better not behave or become gay and all those things. How can you be confident with your sexuality, if you were always told it's wrong. You don't choose your sexuality, so how can it be a bad thing, whatever it turns out to be. His parents/father is to blame here imo.

Saw this article today, thought the results were a bit surprising, with the exception of their choice for #1:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29180831/ranking-2020-nfl-offseasons-worst-first-barnwell-all-32-teams

Here's the full list to save you some time, but the whole article is an interesting read:

How each organization did during the player-acquisition period, from best to worst:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. Cleveland Browns
3. Denver Broncos
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Dallas Cowboys
6. Buffalo Bills
7. Miami Dolphins
8. Arizona Cardinals
9. New Orleans Saints
10. Los Angeles Chargers
11. Washington Redskins
12. Cincinnati Bengals
13. New York Jets
14. New York Giants
15. Las Vegas Raiders
16. San Francisco 49ers
17. Philadelphia Eagles
18. Baltimore Ravens
19. Minnesota Vikings
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
21. Kansas City Chiefs
22. Atlanta Falcons
23. Jacksonville Jaguars
24. Carolina Panthers
25. Tennessee Titans
26. Seattle Seahawks
27. Green Bay Packers
28. Los Angeles Rams
29. Detroit Lions
30. New England Patriots
31. Chicago Bears
32. Houston Texans

I don't know what's going to happen in that Deandre Baker and Quinton Dunbar case, looks like Deandre Baker's attorney is claiming he was playing Madden when the incident went down.  It'll be interesting to see the Madden defense holds.  

It is sad to hear about these cases, a promising young talent makes a stupid decision, starts hanging out with the wrong crowds, or reverting back to a lifestyle consistent with a improper upbringing.  And one just never knows what's really happened until all the facts are out.  Many of these kids come from very poor and crime infested environments, there are a lot of corrupt influences on their lives, including family members that believe they're entitled to share in the athlete's success, often not understanding that a contract doesn't mean dollars in the bank.  Jealousy and greed have a way of making other people do stupid things to undermine the athlete.  I'm always careful not to pass judgement until more is known.

It's also interesting to see how situations like this are perceived by the general public.  Football fans are usually disinclined to believe the athletes are guilty, while the general public is ready for a conviction.  I remember when I first heard about the OJ case, that was close to home since he spent time as a Niner and a Raider, and lived in the same state.  The news was a big deal at the time, but I was sure he was being framed, or his gold-digging wife faked it (yes, I thought that briefly, and I am ashamed that the thought even crossed my mind.)  Not until all the circumstantial evidence started piling up high did I start to believe that he was indeed guilty.  Would I have been so generous in my dismissal of the accusations if it wasn't OJ Simpson?  Probably not.

I just watched the Aaron Hernandez documentary myself, and found it quite disturbing on so many levels.  If indeed the guy was guilty of all those murders, HOLY FUCK, we had a serial killer playing tight end in the NFL!  A really promising tight end...  It's so hard to imagine that some one could be such a sociopath, but the documentary certainly makes it appear that way.  I can only come away from that thinking he was definitely guilty of all those murders.

I didn't pay much attention to the case at the time so I found all the twists, including the questions about his sexuality quite surprising.  The timing of his suicide after that radio show does raise the question about his own homophobia, but we can only speculate if that had anything to with it.  Such a sad and twisted existence his life must have been, I can't help but be sympathetic.  To think that in this day and age we still live in a culture where people feel they can't be true to themselves and accept their own sexuality.  Obviously a breeding ground for mental illness.

One of the first things that an addict will have to do when trying to recover from his addiction is to admit that he has no control over it otherwise he will not look for help and he will think he can manage it, another thing is that even if we know it takes an enormous amount of effort and talent to get to the NFL that dedication does not necessarily translates to other aspects of their lives including money management, which is why we see so many players being broke after their careers end, this is addressed in the 30 for 30 episode Broke(sorry but I could not find a link on YouTube but it should be somewhere else).



As you may guess I am aware of that story and I watched that three part documentary some time ago and I think the same, he was guilty of all of those homicides(and that is only what we know) however during the first trial he hired local lawyers and lost but once he got a super lawyer he was able to get away with those crimes, by the way that lawyer is the one that defended Casey Anthony in one of the most infamous trials in the US in recent history, it was so controversial that many dubbed it as OJ Simpson 2.0.

And speaking of O.J. if you are interested it could be a good idea to watch the five part documentary O.J. Made in America, the first two parts deal with the life of O.J. Simpson before the infamous crimes, the third part deals with the crime itself, the famous white bronco chase, his arrest and the beginning of the trial, the fourth part deals with the rest of the trial, and the fifth part deals with the verdict and the aftermath, it was really well made(it won an Oscar at the 89th Academy Awards for best documentary) and it had interviews with some of the major participants on the whole thing, like some of the dream team of lawyers that defended O.J., the prosecutors, people on the inside circle of O.J., some jurors, witnesses and some of the family members of the victims, if you have not watched it now it could be a good opportunity to do so.

Finally there are more documentaries related to Football that may be of your interest like The Best That Never Was, Pony Excess, You Don't Know Bo and Elway to Marino(there does not seem to be a complete version of those 30 for 30 episodes on YouTube but again I am sure you could find them somewhere else).

I finished watching the Aaron Hernandez Story yesterday and it was damn interesting and a very well produced documentary. There is very few NFL related context, but it gives a very nice insight into this whole story, where we will most likely never get to know what really happened during all those years.

A very sad tale full of violence, pressure caused by hidden sexualty, longterm health effects of playing football and busted dreams in the end for everyone involved. I do believe Hernandez is guilty. Not only of the murder of Odin Lloyd, but also of the murder of these two other guys that got shot in their car. A fellow inmate told the media, that Hernandez even confessed a fourth homicide to him.

I think Jose Baez would have been able to bail him out of jail for the Lloyd case - so there was definitely hope - but just as he was acquitted from the Abreu/Furtado case, he took his life, because these reporters went public with Hernandez probably being gay. Speculations are, that these rumours made him commit suicide - for me there is no doubt about it. I wonder, if these reporters feel any guilt.

Hernandez had the most severe CTE ever seen in an individual of his age.

Part 1&2
Part 3

Some offseason fun: Arrest Warrant Issued For Giants’ Deandre Baker And Seahawks’ Quinton Dunbar

Source: https://nflupdate.co/details-arrest-warrant-issued-for-giants-deandre-baker-and-seahawks-quinton-dunbar/

I will never understand, why people are so dumb, to throw their life into the bin for money - Baker earns $2.6mln/year with the Giants. Even if he has a gambling problem, which lots of NFL players have imo, this is so stupid. Just look for help and let family/friends take care of your finances until you have yourself and your addiction under control again.

If these reports are true, he will spend good parts of his future behind bars - without money and without gambling. Lose-Lose.

And the Giants lost a promising CB

I nearly already placed a bet on the Bills to win AFC East some days ago. They are small favourites to win it:


Source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/nfl-futures

I have to say, I would be really surprised, if the Patriots manage to win this division again - but then again, I thought twice, and well, the Bills are.....just the Bills. This division is really poor, and has been for ages, but it would still be a great accomplishment for the Patriots to win it again. It's never easy to install a new QB, especially not after having played with the goat, and it's not like the Patriots already have some high caliber prospect at their hands, who they just need to develop a bit.
The Bills' schedule looks a bit easier of course. The only road game, which is a sure loss, is the one at the 49ers imo. Dolphins, Raiders, Titans, Jets, Cardinals, Broncos, Pats are all beatable away and at home they can beat anybody on any day. Home schedule looks way harder though, with the Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers visiting.

All in all I came to the conclusion that the odds are more or less fair, so I refrained from placing a bet for now.

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The AFC South betting odds caught my attention though. Houston has won this division 4/5 in the last years. The Colts have Rivers now. The Titans had a good run last year, but not sure, if this is sustainable. Tannehill has had his payday and he can go back to being the old Tannehill now Texans/Colts had no first round pick in this years draft and Titans only a late round pick at #29, where they went OT. Houston has lost Hopkins otoh, which could be a big blow. But still I think the odds for the Texans to win the division are a bit high. I think they have more than 25%, what these odds of 4.00 suggest:


Source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/nfl-futures

Honestly I am surprised, I really thought the NFL will put those games at the end of the season, TB will face Atlanta on week 15 and week 17, if instead of Atlanta TB faced NO then those games could be the equivalent of playoff games, however it is possible the NFL considered that if TB was not doing well then those games could lose all the hype they have built and decided to take advantage of it as soon as they could to avoid what happened with Cleveland during the last season.

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I am taking a look at the schedule of NE and it is no joke, NE will face 6 different playoff teams(Buffalo twice) and four of those games are on the first half with three of them being as a visitor at KC, Seattle and Buffalo and the only game at home will be against SF, and if that was not enough the second half of the season begins with Baltimore and Houston, if NE is able to at least get a 5-5 then we could get in the playoffs but if not then most likely we will see a new division champion on the AFC East something that has not happened since 2008.

The 2020 schedule has been released and what can say - I am very happy about it The NFL listened to me, lol, and we have Buccaneers@Saints in week 1.

The Giants, for what feels like the first time in a decade, won't have to travel to Arlington for week 1, but will play the Steelers at MetLife. Maybe, just maybe, they can snatch a win and could set the tone for a season that lets them fight for a PO spot. 49ers will play the Cardinals at home and Dolphins will try to beat the Brady-less Patriots with Tua.

There are lots of other great matchups - Seahawks@Falcons, Packers@Vikings, Cowboys@Rams - and I just can't wait