Topic: The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!? - page 7. (Read 29273 times)

Coiling - each and every time we go horizontal for awhile, at some point we go up.

I am of the belief that you do nothing until it is obvious that you have a buy or sell signal. Obvious meaning seriously over sold or over bought.

You're right. I have removed my posts that contributed to the derail.




Low volume and sideways trading means the market is unsure.

All we can do now is wait until the price breaks out of this trading range. When the price breaks in one direction or another, I it could go all the way to the next major support. That said, we could see more false starts that fall quickly back into consolidation along the way. For now, you cant really do much until a pattern makes itself evident.  

Watch the charts (or set price alerts) and be prepared to make a move at any point.

on a more constructive (kind of) note:

We have invalidated pretty much all trends / triangles we can draw and are smurfing along beyond the apex of the grand correction triangle.

What does this mean? Which TA constructs can be used now?

I feel lost.

this thread has degraded substantially.

Guys stop fighting. It really looks pathetic.

"No you suck, no you suck, no you suck..."

You both suck okay? 

Now back to this bear analysis...lol 

People are getting bored of waiting for bitcoin's price to go up. Soon, they'll give up and just dump them, meaning cheap coins for us all

hey guys, quit bickering and sell some bitcoins... the price is rising

If by "soapbox" you mean me wanting to come here to call you out on your sloppy methodology, then yes, that's exactly what I want.

Nice. That means you read a bit more than 50% of my post.

On a related note: What happened? You used to write always entertaining, usually insightful, occasionally bearish posts. Now they're always bearish, and about the rest... I don't know. Get back to the old shape, I suggest.

Yeah, I expected nothing less than that as a response from you. True intelligence always shines through :)

I stopped reading there. Interpretation and opinion should never be called a fact.

Really enjoyed your analysis - I came to more or less your same conclusions observing the market, including the falsifying conditions.

Nevertheless I have to say that evolve raised some valid points too. It's true he has his very own sense of bearish drama that some bulls may dislike, but I have to admit that I personally enjoy it

Alright, I'll bite.

I've been posting along those lines for a few times in the Wall Observer thread, so here's the barebone argument only:

Based on my order book calculations (bid and ask totals, recent changes, and order book price composition), as well as money flow and momentum indicators of the past 2 weeks, and the fact that since the beginning of May no data points for any of the hypothesized downtrends exist anymore (while the mid-January uptrend is still possible, even if unlikely), I conclude the following:

a) We are still in a consolidation phase. Movement in the coming week will be slow (barring world-changing news of course).

b) Whether the correction is finished or not is too difficult to determine, and I would suggest not to waste time on trying to do so. Predicting the price movement of the coming week(s) is difficult enough, and sufficient knowledge for most speculators to act upon.

c) I see a short-to-medium uptrend as the slightly more likely scenario than a further downward movement, for the reasons outlined above (money entering the order book), and the fact that according to the growth trend that brought us into the 100+ range, we're still *slightly* over target (the mid-January trend has us at around 100 now, so we're 17 above target right now), which means sideways trading for now works in favor of this trend.

As for my own falsifying conditions:

A sharp price decline below 100 within the coming week or two will invalidate my points made above. Falling to a new low will obviously be extremely strong evidence that the correction continues with full strength. I am not entirely ruling out that over the course of the coming week money will leave the market and prices might decline, and a sub-100 scenario could unfold, but I fully expect signs for this drop to manifest in the order book and money flow indicators first.

Hey evolve.

Noticed how I mentioned SlipperySlope as being an exception to the imprecise, thoughtless, irrational permabear evangelist crowd?

Yeah, you understood that one correctly. The implication was that you are one of them.

On to your attempts at refutation:

re: sharp decline

Let's look at the numbers:

2011 bubble. Peak: June 8th, 32 USD. Lowest point after 10 days: June 12th, 10 USD.

Correction: minus 69%

2013 bubble. Peak 263. Lowest point after 10 days: April 16th, 50 USD.

Correction: minus 81%.

I'm sure you will tell me that's hardly different, right?

Like I said, the intellectually lazy approach you chose will always find similarities and ignore differences in order to prove your point.

re: vagueness & falsifiability

Your 16 pages "reasons why the price is unsustainable" are worth exactly as much as the amount you got paid to produce them. Others here (the permabull crowd, obviously) have produced similar "reasons" for why we will reach 300k USD by the end of the day. I ignore both of those pseudo arguments.

The only thing that counts are a) your model and its predictions, b) your estimations of how certain you are those predictions will come true and c) the circumstances under which you consider your model refuted or confirmed.

Doesn't have to be all numbers, this is not a peer-reviewed publication after all. Go take a look at the post history of SlipperSlope, you might learn something: he has been writing both about points that confirm his predictions as well as those that contradict it. In your post history, I see almost nothing like that (a few days ago the mealy mouthed admission that maybe we have a short-term uptrend, but not *really* as you were quick to add).

This is not about the question whether the correction is over. I don't know that (and neither do you). This is about you not providing a single new estimate of a new correction downtrend now that the old one has been thoroughly broken. This is about you equating the 2011 bubble and the 2013 bubble because they somehow "look alike". Your commentary is worthless until you start acknowledging those predictions that you made that were wrong, and adjusting your theory accordingly. And you haven't done anything like that yet as far as I have seen.

(by the way, no need to tell me to do the same... I'm far from being in a particularly bullish mood. I just prefer to describe the market as objective as possible, rather than looking at it through bull or bear-shaped glasses)

Using the evening news to try to time the market is a fool's game, but there is such a thing as slow adjustment. Information is not always incorporated into a market price immediately. Moreover bitcoin is a small market with numerous obstacles to trade (exchanges closing, DDOS, moving money in and out of gox takes ages for many people, etc).

What are you talking about?

This thread has been sixteen pages of reasons why the price is unsustainable,  why we got here, where we are going from here, the conditions it would take to get us there, and what could turn us around.

The bear argument has been anything but vague.

You may not agree with the analysis, you might not like the analysis, but don't pretend the analysis has no basis or validity.   


Such as?




"Reluctant"? No sharp decline after the peak? Are we looking at the same charts?!?!  The slow slide down happened after a hard crash from the peak and a correction leading to an apparent consolidation period (sound familiar?). 


(2011)

Yes, I have been following that line of thought as well. In my opinion, there is (so far) more evidence in favor of comparing the current correction to the 2012 bubble than to the 2011 bubble. The single most important factor: the SHARP decline immediately after the peak, in both the 2013 and 2012 bubble vs. the slower, more "reluctant" decline of the 2011 bubble.

Yet, the permabears keep on mentioning the 2011 bubble only, because it conveniently allows them to remain vague on the question of how exactly they think the current correction will play out.

"It will take at least 3 months for us to go back to normal!", they say, "And we will go down veeerrry verrry much!", they add. So much for short-term precision, and falsifiability.

(Disclaimer: I exclude SlipperySlope from the sarcastic description above. He is more and more including *falsifying* conditions to his posts, which I greatly appreciate)

The bulls are running out of time to set the trend.  If they don't do it in the next few days you can expect a bear raid.

Either up or down!? That's a pretty impressive analysis.