The Bitcoin Armageddon - page 3. | Bitcointalksearch.org

porc

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Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 10:15:38 PM

Quote from: porc on December 13, 2013, 10:11:36 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 10:05:48 PM

Quote from: porc on December 13, 2013, 10:00:53 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:57:53 PM

what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? Cheesy

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

You do not know how supply and demand works.

Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon

Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin.

nope. it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out". That's not how long-term system failure works.

So market participants dont understand exponential energy cost explosions??? Like sheep they would continue to bid the price up and run over the edge of a cliff. So you are saying you would be the only one wise enough to see, that the system is not sustainable.

Lol. Pure arrogance.

VolanicEruptor

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Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: porc on December 13, 2013, 10:11:36 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 10:05:48 PM

Quote from: porc on December 13, 2013, 10:00:53 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:57:53 PM

what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? Cheesy

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

You do not know how supply and demand works.

Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon

Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin.

nope. it's not just a matter of "noticing and then getting out". That's not how long-term system failure works.

porc

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Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 10:05:48 PM

Quote from: porc on December 13, 2013, 10:00:53 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:57:53 PM

what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? Cheesy

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

You do not know how supply and demand works.

Your assumption: 1) Bitcoin is not scale-able, due to energy costs exploding. 2) Nobody will notice and price will continue going up 3) Armageddon

Assumption 2) is off base. Market participants would notice, and price would collapse. Cryptofans would move to a sustainable coin.

VolanicEruptor

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: porc on December 13, 2013, 10:00:53 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:57:53 PM

what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? Cheesy

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

You do not know how supply and demand works.

empoweoqwj

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 06:51:29 PM

New york city used 5GW of electricity in 2001

With bitcoin mining, lets assume 1W/GH of power is required, per hour.

That means 8000KW is required for 8000TH/S network hash rate, per hour.

Now lets assume difficulty doubles every month, as it has been.

8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)

So in 14 months, we would see more power consumption than New york city ANNUALLY in a single hour of bitcoin mining

Obviously the wattage will become more efficient as we build better miners, but there is no way it can keep up. You would have to see a 2x efficiency improvement every month... and we have not seen that. But even if you slow down my numbers to account for that, it would still happen in less than a decade.

Eventually the entire world will double its power consumption because of Bitcoin.. and then triple it...

I am pretty confident we are FUCKED, gentlemen. Grin

If electricity becomes too expensive to mine, people will stop mining, and the network hash rate will stabilize or drop. People won't mine to lose money ..... oops, my bad, most do that already Wink

porc

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Activity: 98

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Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:57:53 PM

what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? Cheesy

If you are correct, and Bitcoin is not scale-able due to exploding energy costs, cryptocurrency fans will move to a new coin. Bitcoin would collapse to 0, if you are correct.

pontiacg5

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Activity: 364

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Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:57:53 PM

what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? Cheesy

Where did $10,000 come from, or $100,000 for that matter? You do realize there is no guarantee bitcoin is to continue increasing in value, right? Likewise there is no reason bitcoin can't be successful without being $100,000?

VolanicEruptor

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Activity: 392

Merit: 250

what do you call a collapse though? from $100,000 down to $10,000? Cheesy

porc

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Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:41:38 PM

Quote from: porc on December 13, 2013, 09:38:09 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:28:44 PM

Quote from: porc on December 13, 2013, 09:24:04 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:19:59 PM

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
Grin

So let me get this right:

If you more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption.

If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining.

Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont.

people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.

if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine

So your scenario assumes, a $ 100.000 price tag. LOL.

If energy costs are unsustainable, so is Bitcoin. Thus we would never see this price.

I believe we would run out of resources before finding out that it is "unsustainable"

LOL. If your energy cost assumptions are correct, bitcoins price will collapse, as market participants will realize that the system is unsustainable.

Its absurd to imply, that you are the only one who would figure this out.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:43:03 PM

Give it a few years. You'll see..

You know , since the amount of bitcoins per block , mined as a reward will be halving , time is not quite your ally.

VolanicEruptor

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Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Give it a few years. You'll see..

EvilPanda

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Small Red and Bad

Quote from: stompix on December 13, 2013, 09:25:31 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:19:59 PM

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
Grin

.. in the section , worst predictions ever?
http://shareranks.com/499,The-Worst-Predictions-Ever
Pick your place

Few years later:
Top voted worst prediction ever by VolanicEruptor, a bitcointalk forum user, December 2013. Grin

VolanicEruptor

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Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: porc on December 13, 2013, 09:38:09 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:28:44 PM

Quote from: porc on December 13, 2013, 09:24:04 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:19:59 PM

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
Grin

So let me get this right:

If you more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption.

If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining.

Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont.

people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.

if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine

So your scenario assumes, a $ 100.000 price tag. LOL.

If energy costs are unsustainable, so is Bitcoin. Thus we would never see this price.

I believe we would run out of resources before finding out that it is "unsustainable"

porc

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:28:44 PM

Quote from: porc on December 13, 2013, 09:24:04 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:19:59 PM

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
Grin

So let me get this right:

If you more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption.

If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining.

Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont.

people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.

if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine

So your scenario assumes, a $ 100.000 price tag. LOL.

If energy costs are unsustainable, so is Bitcoin. Thus we would never see this price.

arkintunde

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Quote from: stompix on December 13, 2013, 08:44:12 PM

So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent.
I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.

Lol, good point. This will not be happening.

VolanicEruptor

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: porc on December 13, 2013, 09:24:04 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:19:59 PM

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
Grin

So let me get this right:

If you more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption.

If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining.

Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont.

people won't stop mining though if the bitcoin price keeps going up.

if we see a $100,000 bitcoin, we're in big trouble with everybody raping energy resources to mine

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:19:59 PM

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
Grin

.. in the section , worst predictions ever?
http://shareranks.com/499,The-Worst-Predictions-Ever
Pick your place

porc

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:19:59 PM

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
Grin

So let me get this right:

If more people mine bitcoins difficulty increases and thus energy consumption.

If energy consumption increases due to more people mining without a price increase, people will stop mining.

Thus, you are assuming that the price continues to go up to justify this energy consumption, which it wont.

VolanicEruptor

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

bitcoin mining will become illegal in most countries because of ridiculous waste of resources and power
and this post will be part of the history books
thank you
Grin

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 09:03:11 PM

Quote from: stompix on December 13, 2013, 08:57:26 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 08:47:31 PM

Quote from: stompix on December 13, 2013, 08:44:12 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on December 13, 2013, 06:51:29 PM

8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)

So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras

8000KW (present) need to add another 4000
16000KW (in 2 months) 8000
32000KW (in 3 months) 16000
64000KW (in 4 months) 32000
128000KW (in 5 months) 64000
256000KW (in 6 months) 128000
512000KW (in 7 months) 256000
1GW (in 8 months) 512000
2GW (in 9 months) 1024000
4GW (in 10 months) 2M
8GW (in 11 months) 4M
16GW (in 12 months) 8M
32GW (in 13 months) 16M
64GW (in 14 months) 32M

So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent.
I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.

yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material. Either way it's not good..

I'm a bit tired but let's give it a try:
8000 kw should be 19 000 usd. nice cost /block reward
8MW/20000 USD , that would lead to 64GW 160 millions cost/ day. Well , just to cover the cost 1 bitcoin should be worth 50 000. And this if forgetting about the cost of equipment.
And the halving in the next years.

I don't see a problem with electricity cost at all.

Again , maybe I made a mistake with the cost but still...

64GW/hour.. not day..
and even if there is no problem, what about when its 128GW, then 256GW, then 512GW??
don't stop there..

Yeah , 64GW/hour will end up costing you 160millions daily.
If we have a consumption of 512GW it's gonna be 1280 millions , 1.2 billion.

Let's watch the picture in a few years , block reward halved twice. The reward is only 1000 day. one bitcoin should be worth 1 million dollars to sustain only the electricity cost and almost 2.5 millions to cover the expenses with the equipment.

You see now the problem with this ?

Topic: The Bitcoin Armageddon - page 3. (Read 4439 times)