Topic: The Bitcoin Armageddon - page 5. (Read 4439 times)
People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/
I don't think it will get to that point. You're assuming it will continue to be profitable to mine Bitcoin all throughout that time. Which it won't. Now, that's not to say that people won't use their computer power to mine other stuff instead. Maybe we are doomed LOL.
If bitcoin keeps going up, it will continue to be profitable to mine
Things that come to my mind:
1) Difficulty varies and can go down if needed.
2) If you want to reduce mining costs just turn off the lights. People lose so much just by leaving lights on outside their houses for the night ( like porch, pool, house number).
3) If btc price continues to rise we can all afford paying more. Electric companies will earn more and upgrade their networks, we earn more from mining, win - win.
1) Difficulty varies and can go down if needed.
2) If you want to reduce mining costs just turn off the lights. People lose so much just by leaving lights on outside their houses for the night ( like porch, pool, house number).
3) If btc price continues to rise we can all afford paying more. Electric companies will earn more and upgrade their networks, we earn more from mining, win - win.
1)Difficulty will not go down. Supply and demand drives the difficulty upwards.
2) My cointerra machine will need a dedicated circuit in my house. Leaving the lights on in my house does not use up 1500W an hour. We are talking massive power here when you're looking at the entire network. Not even comparable to lights, because light usage does not grow at such an exponential rate.
3) You're talking cost. I'm talking depletion of energy resources. If you think the electric companies can handle a 2X increase in power requirements in 1 month when they already become strained from the system, you're nuts.
I don't think it will get to that point. You're assuming it will continue to be profitable to mine Bitcoin all throughout that time. Which it won't. Now, that's not to say that people won't use their computer power to mine other stuff instead. Maybe we are doomed LOL.
Things that come to my mind:
1) Difficulty varies and can go down if needed.
2) If you want to reduce mining costs just turn off the lights. People lose so much just by leaving lights on outside their houses for the night ( like porch, pool, house number).
3) If btc price continues to rise we can all afford paying more. Electric companies will earn more and upgrade their networks, we earn more from mining, win - win.
1) Difficulty varies and can go down if needed.
2) If you want to reduce mining costs just turn off the lights. People lose so much just by leaving lights on outside their houses for the night ( like porch, pool, house number).
3) If btc price continues to rise we can all afford paying more. Electric companies will earn more and upgrade their networks, we earn more from mining, win - win.
New york city used 5GW of electricity in 2001
With bitcoin mining, lets assume 1W/GH of power is required, per hour.
That means 8000KW is required for 8000TH/S network hash rate, per hour.
Now lets assume difficulty doubles every month, as it has been.
8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)
So in 14 months, we would see more power consumption than New york city ANNUALLY in a single hour of bitcoin mining
Obviously the wattage will become more efficient as we build better miners, but there is no way it can keep up. You would have to see a 2x efficiency improvement every month... and we have not seen that. But even if you slow down my numbers to account for that, it would still happen in less than a decade.
Eventually the entire world will double its power consumption because of Bitcoin.. and then triple it...
I am pretty confident we are FUCKED, gentlemen.
With bitcoin mining, lets assume 1W/GH of power is required, per hour.
That means 8000KW is required for 8000TH/S network hash rate, per hour.
Now lets assume difficulty doubles every month, as it has been.
8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)
So in 14 months, we would see more power consumption than New york city ANNUALLY in a single hour of bitcoin mining
Obviously the wattage will become more efficient as we build better miners, but there is no way it can keep up. You would have to see a 2x efficiency improvement every month... and we have not seen that. But even if you slow down my numbers to account for that, it would still happen in less than a decade.
Eventually the entire world will double its power consumption because of Bitcoin.. and then triple it...
I am pretty confident we are FUCKED, gentlemen.
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