Maybe bitcoin will force the upgrade our US electrical grid apparently needs.
Topic: The Bitcoin Armageddon - page 4. (Read 4439 times)
Assuming the ridiculous assumption that it were possible for difficulty to keep climbing like it is, eventually the power companies would have to charge more for power. They'd be able to justify the increase with expenses for added capacity.
Maybe bitcoin will force the upgrade our US electrical grid apparently needs.
Maybe bitcoin will force the upgrade our US electrical grid apparently needs.
Die-shrink of chips also brings better power efficiency. So it won't be doubled constantly.
So if we increase the power efficiency by 8x, then that delays this scenerio by 4 months..
like i said, our efficiency has not been keeping up with the growth
8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)
So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras
8000KW (present) need to add another 4000
16000KW (in 2 months) 8000
32000KW (in 3 months) 16000
64000KW (in 4 months) 32000
128000KW (in 5 months) 64000
256000KW (in 6 months) 128000
512000KW (in 7 months) 256000
1GW (in 8 months) 512000
2GW (in 9 months) 1024000
4GW (in 10 months) 2M
8GW (in 11 months) 4M
16GW (in 12 months) 8M
32GW (in 13 months) 16M
64GW (in 14 months) 32M
So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent.
I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.
yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material. Either way it's not good..
I'm a bit tired but let's give it a try:
8000 kw should be 19 000 usd. nice cost /block reward
8MW/20000 USD , that would lead to 64GW 160 millions cost/ day. Well , just to cover the cost 1 bitcoin should be worth 50 000. And this if forgetting about the cost of equipment.
And the halving in the next years.
I don't see a problem with electricity cost at all.
Again , maybe I made a mistake with the cost but still...
64GW/hour.. not day..
and even if there is no problem, what about when its 128GW, then 256GW, then 512GW??
don't stop there..
Die-shrink of chips also brings better power efficiency. So it won't be doubled constantly.
8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)
So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras
8000KW (present) need to add another 4000
16000KW (in 2 months) 8000
32000KW (in 3 months) 16000
64000KW (in 4 months) 32000
128000KW (in 5 months) 64000
256000KW (in 6 months) 128000
512000KW (in 7 months) 256000
1GW (in 8 months) 512000
2GW (in 9 months) 1024000
4GW (in 10 months) 2M
8GW (in 11 months) 4M
16GW (in 12 months) 8M
32GW (in 13 months) 16M
64GW (in 14 months) 32M
So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent.
I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.
yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material. Either way it's not good..
I'm a bit tired but let's give it a try:
8000 kw should be 19 000 usd. nice cost /block reward
8MW/20000 USD , that would lead to 64GW 160 millions cost/ day. Well , just to cover the cost 1 bitcoin should be worth 50 000. And this if forgetting about the cost of equipment.
And the halving in the next years.
I don't see a problem with electricity cost at all.
Again , maybe I made a mistake with the cost but still...
8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)
So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras
8000KW (present) need to add another 4000
16000KW (in 2 months) 8000
32000KW (in 3 months) 16000
64000KW (in 4 months) 32000
128000KW (in 5 months) 64000
256000KW (in 6 months) 128000
512000KW (in 7 months) 256000
1GW (in 8 months) 512000
2GW (in 9 months) 1024000
4GW (in 10 months) 2M
8GW (in 11 months) 4M
16GW (in 12 months) 8M
32GW (in 13 months) 16M
64GW (in 14 months) 32M
So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent.
I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.
yes obviously it's not possible to double forever.. eventually we will either run out of energy or material. Either way it's not good..
many will just unplug their miners if it is unprofittable or too costly. this will bring power consumption down. the infrastructure will still function but will be exclusive to those with free electric/solar.
i thought all the ASIC miners were low wattage devices
1w/gh is low wattage compared to old GPU/CPU mining..
and so what if it wasn't? If it was 0.25w/gh, that will only delay this scenerio for 4 months..
8000KW (present)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)
16000KW (in 2 months)
32000KW (in 3 months)
64000KW (in 4 months)
128000KW (in 5 months)
256000KW (in 6 months)
512000KW (in 7 months)
1GW (in 8 months)
2GW (in 9 months)
4GW (in 10 months)
8GW (in 11 months)
16GW (in 12 months)
32GW (in 13 months)
64GW (in 14 months)
So , let;s assume we have 8000TH , that's 4000 Cointerras
8000KW (present) need to add another 4000
16000KW (in 2 months) 8000
32000KW (in 3 months) 16000
64000KW (in 4 months) 32000
128000KW (in 5 months) 64000
256000KW (in 6 months) 128000
512000KW (in 7 months) 256000
1GW (in 8 months) 512000
2GW (in 9 months) 1024000
4GW (in 10 months) 2M
8GW (in 11 months) 4M
16GW (in 12 months) 8M
32GW (in 13 months) 16M
64GW (in 14 months) 32M
So , in one month we'll have to produce 32 millions cointerra miners or equivalent.
I see a problem here. Cause that's the amount of Iphones Apple sells in 4 months.
i thought all the ASIC miners were low wattage devices
1W for 1GH as per OP is the lowest IMO
i thought all the ASIC miners were low wattage devices
It's a simple demand/supply quiz. If electricity usage goes up, so does the price.
Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power.
That will boost the development in the southern countries.
Everyone wins!
Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power.
That will boost the development in the southern countries.
Everyone wins!
Solar power isn't cheap.
You need the space and the materials to build it.
Okay, so we determine we only need the entire Nevada desert to supply the mining requirements with solar power..
but what about the month after? We will need twice the room
And the month after that, we'll need 4 times the room..
See what I'm saying? It's the doubling that fucks us
eventually the entire sun will not be able to keep up with the mining growthWe've got Africa, Central America and Asia, so for the near future we're covered.
When BTC price hits 1mln then space stations will be built to better utilize the lights of other galaxies.
People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/
but then bitcoin goes up, and it becomes profitable again
Bitcoin can't go up forever.
Also there will be lot's of improvements in energy consumptions for asic devices but that's just secondary.
The free market will solve this
.It's a simple demand/supply quiz. If electricity usage goes up, so does the price.
Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power.
That will boost the development in the southern countries.
Everyone wins!
Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power.
That will boost the development in the southern countries.
Everyone wins!
Solar power isn't cheap.
You need the space and the materials to build it.
Okay, so we determine we only need the entire Nevada desert to supply the mining requirements with solar power..
but what about the month after? We will need twice the room
And the month after that, we'll need 4 times the room..
See what I'm saying? It's the doubling that fucks us
eventually the entire sun will not be able to keep up with the mining growth
It's a simple demand/supply quiz. If electricity usage goes up, so does the price.
Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power.
That will boost the development in the southern countries.
Everyone wins!
Then miners will have the incentives to find cheaper sources, like solar power.
That will boost the development in the southern countries.
Everyone wins!
Shit, i think i should build a power plant.
In not so far future, bitcoin heater will be installed globally in every house in northern countries 
People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/
but then bitcoin goes up, and it becomes profitable again
So the only problem is power company being able to support the demand? With the electric cars becoming more popular and people using tripple crossfire setups for gaming they will have to come up with something even if btc goes to the bottom. Demand for electricity is rising anyway - do you know how much facebook data center is using?
I read about a big solar plant opening few weeks ago. No worries!
I don't think you guys understand what 2X/month means. Imagine facebooks data center power requirements doubling every month.. eventually they would need to harness their energy from other galaxies
People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/
but then bitcoin goes up, and it becomes profitable again
So the only problem is power company being able to support the demand? With the electric cars becoming more popular and people using tripple crossfire setups for gaming they will have to come up with something even if btc goes to the bottom. Demand for electricity is rising anyway - do you know how much facebook data center is using?
I read about a big solar plant opening few weeks ago. No worries!
People just won't be minning, cuz electricity will be cost more than btc mined ;/
but then bitcoin goes up, and it becomes profitable again
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