Topic: The Bullish Bitcoin Media Center (The ONLY Bullish Bitcoin News Thread) - page 134. (Read 259656 times)

News URL : https://twitter.com/NTmoney/status/738465189280940033

I will respond to all of you ASAP, now I really feel shy from you all because of not posting as I used to do, but HERE WE GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Thank you all for keeping the thread alive, really speechless my family

A couple of days ago, I came across this article regarding bitcoin's price changes as compared with gold, and it seems to a decent thought provoking read.. even if it is a quick / temporary snapshot of recent price movements.


http://cointelegraph.com/news/gold-plummets-while-bitcoin-skyrockets

My deductible for physical therapy is 2,000... I said I'll live with the back pain for now I'm not on Obama care but the insurance company just informed our company it was dropping coverage in my state. Next year who knows what we will do.

The rest of the coverage is good, except X-rays. They pay 5%...

No problema...

I was just wanting to get caught up on some of the outstanding and unanswered questions.... so I didn't leave that hanging...

Not that it is a job, but I felt that I needed to attempt to clarify a few things.

Hi JJG,

I'll respond to you properly after a while.  Busy at the moment.

http://www.coindesk.com/us-swap-platform-registration-cftc/

I was a bit distracted since the BTC/USD market has been very happening in the past several hours….. so for posterity sake, as I type, BTC prices are currently floating between $472 and $478 (after having had risen about 5% from about $453).



Anyhow, let me attempt to clarify because possibly, I did not describe very well in my earlier summary regarding my current approach to BTC trading.

Even though I call what I do BTC trading, maybe what I do does not really fit any exact typical pattern of trading because I definitely tailored it to myself?

 I know technically I am BTC trading, but also what I am doing is engaging in a kind of  ongoing small level tweaks of my BTC holdings in order to hedge some of the downward volatility with underlying assumptions that in the long term BTC prices are going upwards. 

I am also engaging in a certain level of BTC price prediction attempts (with some margin of error), so for example my view of recent BTC history is something like this:

In August 2015 BTC trade volume began to pick up after the downward testing of $200 and the bounce back thereafter, and through October November BTC prices shot up to $502, but the BTC price battle remained for at least a couple more months through December 2015, and the bears were largely unsuccessful to get BTC prices to return below $350, even though there were some temporary successful short periods of such pushes below $350.  So after getting through those more than 4 months of relatively high volume BTC price battles, BTC prices have been trickling back up up and becoming more and more difficult to drive down absent some major spreading of FUCD or finding of some actual technical flaw or real news item.

So anyhow with my description of recent BTC price history, I have certain assumptions that since about August 2015 we have been in an upward bound bull market, and probably we did not really realize for sure until about December 2015 that the  BTC market had truly shifted from its nearly 2 year long bear market into a bull market (yeah some people recognized such sooner rather than later and surely others did not recognize such transformation until much later, and a few are still denying – but not too many), and yeah there have been some fairly significant attempts at keeping BTC prices down with blocksize limit debate etc,  and maybe even attempts to revert to the bear market but the upwards BTC price trajectory seems a decent medium term assumption, that has kind of become more solidly reaffirmed in the past 12 hours.

Let me show how my projected BTC buys and sells are currently stacked, and then I will attempt to explain further about those projections. 

In the past couple of years, I discontinued disclosing my actual number of BTC, but the below rendition assumes that I have 100 BTC (about 96% in BTC) (and about 4% in fiat, which is about $2,120 ), and even though these are hypothetical numbers, the actual ratios of all of that is proportional to my actual current BTC portfolio and stacking of projections.

I attempt to always have enough cash on hand and to stagger to buy at least a 15% correction, and if there is a 10% correction, I have to rejigger everything in order to be able to continue to buy if there is another 15% correction from there (which would end up being 25% correction total.. etc etc etc.. I mean I never want to run out of either fiat or BTC to be able to keep trading with the funds in my BTC portfolio no matter which direction the price goes and for how long. 

My current BTC buy staggerings are proportionally as follows (read this one from the bottom up):


BuyPrice   BTC_tobuy           $Amt_ToBuy
        
       
$437.00   0.19614253   $85.71
$443.00   0.22573363   $100.00
$447.00   0.22371365   $100.00
$450.00   0.22222222   $100.00
$453.00   0.25228635   $114.29
$456.00   0.25062657   $114.29
$459.00   0.24898848   $114.29
$462.00   0.24737168   $114.29
$465.00   0.24577573   $114.29
$467.00   0.24472316   $114.29
$468.50   0.24393962   $114.29
$470.00   0.24316109   $114.29
$471.50   0.24238752   $114.29
$473.00   0.24161885   $114.29


My current BTC sell staggerings are proportionally as follows.

SellPrice   BTC_toSell           $amt_toSell
      
$480.00   0.17857143   $85.71
$482.00   0.17783047   $85.71
$484.00   0.17709563   $85.71
$486.00   0.20576132   $100.00
$489.00   0.20449898   $100.00
$491.50   0.23252434   $114.29
$494.00   0.23134760   $114.29
$496.50   0.25895555   $128.57
$499.00   0.25765817   $128.57
$501.50   0.28485971   $142.86
$504.00   0.28344671   $142.86
$506.50   0.36666197   $185.71
$511.00   0.44730221   $228.57
$521.00   0.43871675   $228.57
$531.00   0.43045467   $228.57



Each time I buy or sell I readjust the parameters and project ahead, and if the price shoots passed some buy or sell points, I combine them, and profit more from allowing it to shoot, if I have an inclination that the price is not going to reverse directions.

Currently, I am only authorizing myself to trade up to about 50% of my profits.. so like I said if BTC prices go up $10, with 100 BTCs, I can trade up to $1,000, but in actual practice, currently, I am only authorizing myself to  trade about $500 – 50% because I am bullish and because I would rather not sell too many BTCs

So my total fiat holdings are currently only about 4%, and that is not bad – given that as I type, BTC prices seems to be heading upwards.   Just a day ago, I was at only about 2.2% fiat, and the last time we were at $470 (about 2 months ago), my fiat amount had migrated up to 8% of my BTC portfolio (and I felt too much in fiat), and thereafter with like three major corrections back to the $430s, I had gotten my fiat down to 2% which was feeling a bit risky… Maybe ideally if BTC prices surge a bit, then I am going to be able to float between 10% to 20%  fiat, yet I think part of the reason that my fiat levels are currently so low is that I remain quite bullish about BTC’s short term price direction, and the three recent price corrections to $430 were quite a bit more than I had anticipated and caused me to stock up a bit much on BTC – and now I am a little more relieved after our 5% upwards correction today.

Under my current practice, even if there is a BTC price upsurge to $5k, I will likely still hold over 50% of my BTC; however, I may decide to make some kind of special exception selling if I really believe that we are strongly in a BTC price bubble and I am fairly confident that there is going to be at least a 10% downward price correction.

I hope that this helps to clarify a little bit regarding what kinds of proportions of my BTC holdings I am trading and kind of how it may play out with larger kinds of price movements.

Yes, it a very high health and dental insurance plan.  It's considered a "cadillac" plan.  It's the plan my wife had with her previous oil and gas company.  We chose to continue with it instead of getting into O'Bummer Care.  The deductibles are very low.  The highest we would ever pay for a deductible would be $200.  For example, if my wife got pregnant again and she had to stay in the hospital for at least one night.  That would be a $200 deductible.

I've seen many other peoples plans under O'Bummer Care with deductibles ranging from $2,000 to as much as $7,000 while only paying $280 less than us each month.  Yes, that adds up over 12 months.  However, we still get to see the doctor WE want to see.  Most cannot do that under O'Bummer Care.

Blimey O'Rielly. Feel like a slave to your existence, much!? That health bill is crazy to a Brit/European. 

So, it sounds like you may invest about 1/5 of your holdings every $10 the price goes up.  It also sounds like you do this over a relatively long period of time.  You keep up with the amount of BTC purchased and at what price.  Which means you have pre-determined an exit for each fifth of your holdings ($1,000) you have invested as the price heads upward.  This would mean most of the time you are not in a position to have invest all $5K or 5 fifths for example because the price may not have gone up $50 or $60 over the period you are trading before it goes down again.  At least that is what has been the case lately.  It has stayed pretty much between $435 and $465 for quite a while now.

When trading BTC/USD, I'm usually making trades with 50 or 60 BTC on BitFinex; 40 or 50 BTC on Coinbase and 15 to 20 BTC on BTC-e [I have stopped trading on BitStamp].  The price may have changed $5, $10, $15 or $20 before I've made my exit.  In some cases $30, $40 or $50 before exiting.  However, it may have played out over a 2 to 10 day period.  In most cases it has been 2 to 4 days.  About what time frame do your trades occur within on average from entry to exit?

Also, I'm usually getting out of the trade [Have a STOP] if it's gone to a point of losing 2% of my trade.  I risk no more than 2% in a bull market and no more than 1% in a bear market.  Of course, this means on a 50 BTC entry if I get stopped out, I lost 1 BTC in a bull market and 0.5 BTC in a bear market.  However, for every $10 gain without being stopped out with 120 BTC waged across 3 exchanges, I'll have a $1,200 gain in total minus fees.  $2,400 minus fees for $20 gain, $3,600 minus fees for a $30 gain, etc...  BTC-e fees are 0.2% fees for taker and maker.  Coinbase 0.25% for taker and 0% for maker.  However, I believe they have recently establish a discount credited back to your account every 30 days based how much one has traded during that time frame.  Same thing with BitFinex.

The ranges with BitFinex are as follows:

Executed in the last 30 days (USD Equivalent)        Maker fees   Taker fees
$0.00 or more traded                                                0.100%   0.200%
$500,000.00 or more traded                                      0.080%   0.200%
$1,000,000.00 or more traded                                   0.060%   0.200%
$2,500,000.00 or more traded                                   0.040%   0.200%
$5,000,000.00 or more traded                                   0.020%   0.200%
$7,500,000.00 or more traded                                   0.000%   0.200%
$10,000,000.00 or more traded                                 0.000%   0.180%
$15,000,000.00 or more traded                                 0.000%   0.160%
$20,000,000.00 or more traded                                 0.000%   0.140%
$25,000,000.00 or more traded                                 0.000%   0.120%
$30,000,000.00 or more traded                                 0.000%   0.100%

I wouldn't mind getting to a point I could live off trading BTC.  That would be sweeeeeeeeet.  At present, we cannot do it without too much stress.  I told Fakhoury about my wife getting laid off from her accounting job with an oil and gas company in January this year.  We've had to get a little bit out of savings each month to meet our monthly obligations.  Trading has helped but not quite enough.  Our monthly obligations are quite large.  Our health insurance and dental insurance are close to the same as our house note: approximately $1,750.  House note is more than that.  We have more than $4,000 in monthly obligations just with our house note and insurance.  Then we have a few credit card bills, utilities, grocery, gas, car insurance, etc...  It adds up quickly.  Hence, the reason I'm wanting to open up e-cig stores.

I've procrastinated on opening up e-cig stores long enough.  Which means you will not see me as much in the forums for a while beginning next week.  I'll still pop in almost everyday.  However, I will not stay on here very long each day.  It will take some time before I can find someone I can trust enough to run the e-cig stores so I can focus my energy back to trading.

Our approaches are a bit different from one another.


I don't attempt to predict short term price movements in either direction,but I assume in the long run BTC prices are going up... so accumulating is going to pay off.

Therefore, I only sell within profits.. so for example if I hold 100btc, then I can only sell up to $1,000 for every $10 the price goes up, and so I continue to stagger on the way up and on the way down and the price intervals vary... but continue...  I am somewhat agnostic regarding whether prices go up or down, but of course, since I have been accumulating BTC, I prefer that the prices go up.

My wife and I are determined to home school our son [He is 5 years old and begins K-school in the fall].  We would also like for him to experience the outdoors and see many parts of North America.  We are getting to the point of seriously considering becoming full time RV'ers.  We would keep our house though.  It would be a place to return when we want to spend time with my wife's parents or my parents.

You might find you like RV'ing.  You can get a travel trailer to pull with a truck or SUV.  A 5th wheel would need to be pulled by at least a one ton pickup truck.  That's why I'm suggesting a travel trailer instead of a 5th wheel.  Keystone is the best bang for your buck in terms of quality.

Hope you get those business details tying you down untied so you can experience more freedom to roam about when and where ever you like.  Looking back, my wife and I wish we had bought an RV to have more freedom to do what we wanted.  Getting tied down with a large house note on a large house for going on 15 years now has not been exciting.  Especially, after the housing bubble.  An RV or travel trailer of some sort offers one more flexibility to move if necessary to make other business opportunities more possible.  That's my two cents.

I've found what helped me get out of reacting on emotions is to stop looking at any chart lower than the 30m.  I remember I used to look at the 15m, 5m and 3m all the time.  I would get caught up "in the moment" (15m, 5m and 3m charts) instead of having a plan based off information gathered to make a logical decision.  I've had to force myself to exercise patience with trading to allow TIME for things to play out the way I previously determined they may play out based on the information I've gathered.  Sometimes, this may take days and in some cases weeks to play out.

I remember when LTC was heading on a downward spiral.  I told everyone they should wait to get in around .0065 in about 6 to 8 weeks.  I have many witnesses on BTC-e about this.  Paul (a moderator on BTC-e) is a witness to this.  I provided charts for those who were interested.  Sure enough, about 8 weeks later it hit an ATL of .0065 and I bought a slew of it to prepare for the LTC pump and dump due to the LTC block halving I knew was coming about 3.5 months later.

The swings are not broad enough to do any swing trading in my opinion.  It's not worth my time to be near the computer to swing trade at present.  Back in late 2013 and first quarter of 2014 it was nothing for you to have $50 swings almost every day.  Now THAT is worth staying near the computer to get involved with.

Most of my trades lately have occurred over a 2 to 4 day period where I would enter and exit.  I know some who may make only 2 trades a month (one entry and one exit) but they were big trades.  I suppose it depends on the person and the amount of time they have to invest in front of computer screen to trade.

Wow... ... so then yeah, you consider that to be a good investment, and others consider a boat that could sail the world, but probably a boat would cost more, especially if you want it to be sufficiently safe in an ocean bound and international sense... Hm?  I'm not quite into thinking about those kinds of things, even though my mom had suggested some kind of RV type situation to me, I am kind of more inclined towards international travel but without buying big items and attempting to stay more mobile.. but I'm currently still working out some geographically tying me down business details, so cannot start anything like that until i get some of my geographically tying me down business matters in a more settled place or maybe liquidated.. hahahahaha.

yeah but the volatility includes ups and downs and just ongoing volatility, but less as the market cap gets greater. 

I mean it may be down $100 one day and then up $200 the next and then back down to where it started and maybe even kind of trickling upward on a yearly basis it may be up 2% or something... , I think that we should be able to handle such potential volatility that would become more and more predictable as the thing is in existence for a longer period of time ...

Such volatility too, would also be a bit better than some of the artificial and unseen volatility that is caused by quantitative easing and various wasteful practices employed by governments and banks controlling current fiat systems.

The reason I'm saying it's so rare is mainly because everyone could not buy into telephone, internet, automobile, etc... and expect that kind of return on investment.  I could be wrong but I don't think so.

As for the price on the Realm RV:  http://www.rvtrader.com/dealers/Motor-Home-Specialist-Inc.-726707/listing/2016-Foretravel-Realm-FS6-Luxury-Villa-3-%28LV3%29-Bath-%26-1--115076294

Wow, I very much underestimated the price of the realm.. and you are suggesting that it runs over half a million for that vehicle.. whoaza...