Topic: The coming flash crash in AMC - page 3. (Read 29407 times)

Would anyone be interested in writing some puts? I'd buy some. Will come back with calculated fair price if there's interest.

As I said, you look really silly right now.

.00396 on bitfunder today.

going back to my original point that all depends on whether what is claimed on paper can actually be delivered in a timely manner... only fools count their eggs before they hatch.

Ofcourse I agree that the people who fab their own chips and mine will have a competitive advantage if the chips they produce are comparable in performance to those already on the market. ASICMiner has already proven this.

but right now AMC has little more than a long wish list.
currently the stock is trading on positive sentiment alone.

and sure, sentiment is enough to trade on the swings and make a little money.. but sentiment alone is not enough to generate any sustained longterm growth for shareholders.

I have been investing in chip stocks for more than 10 years and let me tell you from experience.... even companies with 100s of millions of dollars in financial backing fail on their delivery targets...
if you want a good example of what I am talking about then go and read up on a company called Transmeta.

They were a stealth company working on a superior more efficient low power x86 chip.. which could beat intel to a pulp in small form factor environments.
the Crusoe (and later Astro) was a beautiful little chip.. a true work of art.. so so nice.. you need only look at the OQO to see how many years ahead of intel Transmeta were and with 100% x86 compatability....

so why did Transmeta fail so miserably?

firstly they over promised and under delivered.
secondly they underestimated how much operating capital they would need so they ended up having to cut R&D and beg for scraps to keep the company going.
thirdly they over estimated the market demand AND revenues they would get.
and thirdly they took on an already established monopoly who, as soon as they saw the threat, adapted with their own products to squeeze TMTA out of the market.

sound like a familiar story? well it should because this story has played out time and time again with various small time chip companies.

the point I'm trying to make in case you missed it again.. is that when well funded companies staffed with the brightest engineers cannot even carve out a tiny niche in a highly competitive and well regulated industry as the PC industry.. what makes you think that a completely random stranger with a pipe dream operating in a completely virtual and unregulated environment is going to be able design and build better chips and systems than already established players who have far more resources and skills at their disposal...

there has been  a huge amount of talk over the last few days about how shareholders are going to restructure the company and carve up the profits.. but virtually no talk about the actual product..

if I read things correctly so far people have effectively paid something like 25 million dollars for 6 Avalon machines and the hope that somehow in the next 5 weeks they are going to be producing their own machines...

my advice to cautious investors would be.... wait and see the actual product then do your sums and see if its worthwhile to make the investment.
buying off the spec sheet from some random guy on the internet is as dangerous as buying a house off the plans from a nigerian..

just my 2c as usual... i cut and ran as soon as I couldn't verify the references and photos on the website..

and sure I could have made some money trading on the swings and positive sentiment.. but I find it just a little bit too unethical for me to profit from the misery of others.

but good luck anyways.. sounds like you are onto a winner if your mining gear turns up on October regardless of what happens with this virtual company.

Exactly. In the end, what matters is performance/cost.

When new players arrive with better performance for the same cost, it's bye bye after a while. Like Asicminer showed to any large GPU farm holder.

When someone can do with $100 what you need $200 for, it's only a matter of time.

This thread is pretty funny in that the point was dispatched within the first two posts and yet there's endless pages of just-made accounts discussing matters they don't grasp with an aplomb they couldn't justify.

Perhaps the best-of-"community" thread of the week. (And no, it wouldn't be fair to pin the stupidity on the forum, reddit for instance is shockingly worse, and the pretentious press (UK Guardian et al) shockingly below that even.)

Waiting on BFL minirigs? No, I remember - you're in the KnC thread. Good deal! Go big or go home.

oh believe me you will be able to much sooner than you think...
even though the big players have huge order backlogs and wait times of  6+mths...  the market will very soon be flooded with build your own ASIC kits.. not to mention a plethora of cheaper Chinese knockoff rigs....

ive been waiting more than 8 months for my bitfoce SC... im still waiting... so I know only too well how production delays can cripple ones plans.

I would if I could 

this I believe is the fundamental lack of understanding that AMC shareholders face.

They seem to believe that if a certain Hash capacity is claimed on paper that it will be delivered and delivered quickly.

Firstly... Butterfly labs has already demonstrated the difficulties that companies face when trying to produce ASICs for bitcoins.
there is nothing to suggest that AMC/VMC won't experience the same difficulties and delays faced by the other major players and everything to suggest they will.

Secondly due to the finite rate of production of bitcoins a second behemoth player in the game doesn't merely have to ramp up to the Hashing power of ASICMiner they would essentially have to more than double it in order to produce the number of bitcoins that ASICMiner is currently producing.

Thirdly ASICMiner is not the only game in town.. there are 3 Major players in this field and the other 2 (Avalon and Butterfly Labs) haven't YET ramped up to full production capacity... when they do (and they will long before AMC/VMC does) expect the difficulty to skyrocket and mining profits to diminish significantly.


Now I'm not saying that AMC cannot succeed but the Risks here have been vastly understated and the rewards have been vastly over stated.
IMO if you want a better ROI then buy your own ASIC gear... that way you will be helping to secure your future along with the future of the bitcoin network itself.

just my 2c

Ahh, good to know. OK - as long as it's being addressed, then that makes more sense. Thanks!

Yep, probably going into something around ~25M total shares.

Heh, which is obviously far from the case. Companies are valued at what their future profits will be. If AMC they can take up even 5% of the total hashrate + sales of hardware then they will be worth $25M. The problem is that this is an enormous IF. For that risk, we should be rewarded with a higher reward - not a break even prospect. For those that bought in at .0005, this seems like a reasonable risk/reward ratio. At .0025? That's just too little reward for the risk.

Unless the total number of shares to be issued is reduced drastically, I feel the price is just way too high.

Of course, 6 Avalons + 20000 chips worth $25M

I'm still concerned about the valuation. What so far gives us a reason to believe that the combined value of VMC + AMC is worth 100M shares x .0025 or $25M? That seems like a lofty valuation given what we know so far. Am I missing something? Is Ken going to restrict the total number of shares issued?

You forget that there were almost a million "suckers" who bought at that price before the dip.  Once people start seeing it rebound, it will get eaten away pretty quickly.  Especially once people figure out all the fears in this thread were nonsense.  Discuss amongst yourselves though and I will be back on the day it passes .0025 so I can hear you say I was right.

wall is more like 3 mill, between both sites...whats 7,500 BTC between friends though, amirite?

heres the bitfunder chart, with the time the thread started:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2615254

and I made one for BTCTCO (thread started at the green circle)

Except for that tiny 1.5m share wall at 0.0025....my guess is it will be tough to find that many suckers.

Entropy, am I still not allowed to LOL at these fools?