Topic: The continuing decline of China's economy - what are the implications ? (Read 663 times)

Market news are as refreshing as always:
China’s $6.5 Trillion Stock Rout Worsens Economic Peril for Xi

    Chinese equities trail global ones for a fourth year running
    CSI 300 Index is near the lowest level since early 2019

The article is from Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/china-s-6-5-trillion-stock-rout-worsens-economic-peril-for-xi
You wish to read it without paywall, click here:  https://archive.ph/jfoJQ

Chinese statistics are the new meme, apparently Perfect example : official statement - “gold reserves increased by 6.3 billion dollars”. The average person thinks that China bought 6.3 billion dollars in gold reserves. But the reality is as follows: as there were 72.8 million ounces in the reserves, so it remained. The only thing is that the value of the existing reserves has increased from $176.67 billion to $182.98 billion, which exactly corresponds to the increase in the price of gold on the world market in recent months. At the same time, when the price of gold goes down, do you think that the Chinese Ministry of Finance will say that our “gold reserves have fallen”? No, we will never hear that

I think the decline in China's economy will significantly affect the global economy and china's social economy and landscape leading to a major risks in business,market and major areas too.
Imagine the decline in the China economy has caused a high Chance of unemployment in the society and people unable to meet up to standards.This continuous decline is what I don't get because it's becoming so alarming and fustrating and neighbouring countries are being affected by this effects as well but with time I believe they can scale through this a whole lot if they can make some certain adjustment in the economy or need help from neighbouring countries too.

Most are not all. The biggest issue is that we cannot generalize people's behavior.
In regards to The continuing decline of China's economy - what are the implications ?  
It is getting worse. Most leftist and fascism regimes like to hide data. In that tradition China is not falling behind. 
Especially when time looks kinda bad it seems, Those regimes do not see data as a way to create trust, trust is the most important money creator.
 
https://archive.ph/dI8Zz
The original article is here https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/09/05/the-chinese-authorities-are-concealing-the-state-of-the-economy

 

1. China is a huge manufacturing industry, tou can't argue with that.  But ... you can, for example, read this analysis: https://www.iwkoeln.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/juergen-matthes-simon-gerards-iglesias-china-kann-nicht-ohne-den-westen-1.html

2.  I agree that most people do not know how to manage money ... But whose problem is that ? Banks or stupid people ?

You have to take note that while China is the number 1 exporter in the world, they're also the number 2 importer. While their exports are in trillions, their imports are also in trillions. China actually imports electronics, petroleum, iron ore, and so on. But, overall, the world is more dependent on China than them on the world.


This is the age of neocolonialism. Language and culture don't anymore matter that much. It is not even about conquest anymore. China doesn't have to send its military to control other countries. It is just enough for them to trap other countries with debts. It is enough for China to make other countries subservient to them by simply being their dominant trade partner. China gains control over other countries by simply granting them huge loans to finance their basic services projects and basic infrastructure.

These seemingly friendly and charitable acts of goodwill are enough for China to have other countries by their throat.

I think that a war will just do away with the technological parts of Taiwan. That already would turn tables with the west whose trying to throttle China technologically. 

Another matter is investment, already there come less info out of China as the Economist says:

https://archive.ph/afheC
Originally here it is published: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/09/05/bad-information-is-a-grave-threat-to-chinas-economy

Less information, trouble at home is a perfects storm. 

Not everyone depends on imports from China directly though. Yes China depends on exports, but other nations could import from somewhere that is not China, maybe it would be lower quality, maybe it would be higher price, maybe it will take longer on shipping, we really don't know what will happen but we know one thing, which is the fact that it is going to be not China if they just don't want to deal with China. In which case China would have a very hard time selling anything, not their own products, not manufacture for other companies, everything will be hard.

Just imagine Europe and USA puts a huge tariff on anything there, suddenly we will see it is not worth it to get from China and that will cause all companies and people to not pay for that much for Chinese products. It's all political, China has to get along well with west if they want to keep being rich, the moment they do something wrong, like maybe a Taiwan issue, then suddenly all of west will turn on China very easily.

On what western high technology does China depend? Also isn't this a myth anymore that Chinese aren't creatives? Nowadays they invent and create many good things as I have heard.

The majority of the population is not smart, they are lazy also and love easy money, so that's why I agree with the statement that an easy loan is not a good thing.

Other countries that depend on imports (exports from China), what do they produce? I can't understand why I always hear that China depends on export. Almost everything I own is made in China, so what do other countries create that makes China more dependent on them than them on China?

I think that China won't be able to gain control of every country in the world because their culture and language is very different. It was easy and possible for Britain to gain control because their language is still near to our languages. I'm far from Britain but when it comes to grammar, the way we make sentences and etc, there are similarities. I would even say that English is one of the easiest language while Chinese is one of the hardest language. Even if China conquers the whole world, it would require a new generation to make people speak Chinese.

It definitely is a problem but I don't think it is as big a problem as it was made to be in the mainstream media. We have to see though.

It depends on who's trying.
For example US or EU will not be able to do that in a million years. Decades of bad economic decisions and capitalism has mostly killed their production capabilities. This is why a lot of Western companies from Apple to VW can not even exist without China.
If they go against China, they will suffer more themselves.

However, there are other serious competitors capable of doing what China does. For example India. They have the population, the cheap work force, and they have been moving in that direction. Their GDP growth has been big and it is getting closer to be 9% annually. Additionally India is in a way absorbing the capital that is fleeing Europe as Europe continues getting deindustrialized.

Well, there's a good reason why many countries import from China. It's because Chinese companies know how to mass produce things at a bare minimum cost. Chinese governments are friendly to the businesses and their policies are flexible which allows them to produce cheaper. Things are changing but at a very slow pace.

The Chinese economy is at risk due to their real estate sector. Their exports are still strong and in many cases have no competition. If the Chinese economy goes down, they will be able to produce the goods even cheaper because the manpower will become cheaper.

It's not easy to dethrone China from the current position.

That is an excellent point that people always forget when they get lost in the mainstream media nonsense. This becomes more palpable when apart from the size of their imports from China you also check out the trade deficits different countries have with China (that is when what they import from China is more than what they export to China). For example US itself has been facing $300-$400 billion deficit which means US is that much more dependent on China than China is on US.

China is indeed interesting, but not necessarily in the positive sense. Anyway, if China, the third largest country in the world and the most populous in many decades, is so dependent on export, then perhaps other countries are dependent on imports.

But China producing almost everything doesn't mean China produces everything.

China wants to gain control of Taiwan. China wants to gain control of every country in the world. And they use all means necessary to do that. It's a combination of bullying, debt traps, friendly gestures, grants, trade offers, and whatnot.

But the rule has always been that China can't be trusted. I'm not saying the US can be trusted though.

1. Plans to invade Taiwan have several reasons. One of them is really technological, as China itself has problems with technology and its dependence on Western high technology. But the military way is to lose the manufacturing base, equipment and much more. The second reason is political, or more precisely, the classic solution of internal problems and tensions through a “small victorious war”. But... China's hopes for its “tame dog” Russia, which promised to set an example of how one can spit on international rules, obligations and lack of impunity, failed in 2022. China's expectations of russia and its terrorist adventure to “take Kiev in 3 days” have failed. Moreover, this “experiment” gave the opposite result - strengthening of NATO, military-industrial complex of NATO countries, and development of new principles of deterrence and “forcing to kindness” the countries of terrorists and international criminals.
2. Loans are a tool. Like for example a knife, a lighter and so on. And if a person is a fool, he will also suffer from its use
In simplified terms: credit in the hands of a smart person is, for example, building or developing a business. In the hands of a fool it means poverty and debts. As they say - if you don't know how to use it, don't touch it

China is a very interesting country and the way we manufacture in China and made China dependent on export, is even more interesting. Btw I don't understand why it's always China that's dependent on export and production while Western countries depend on what? If China produces almost everything, then how are western countries going to get very important techs like smartphones, computer parts and etc? China also wants to gain control on Taiwan where many other part of technics is manufactured. If Taiwan becomes part of China, then it means that China produces almost all of our smartphones, TVs, computers and etc...

You are right. A few years ago, it was very easy to get a loan in my country. Many people here work unofficially, don't pay taxes and when you would go to Bank, you had to describe your job, tell them your income and the bank would give you money according to that (btw your numbers had to be close to reality).
To be fair, the majority of the population of my country isn't smart and statistics prove that. Many people got their lives destroyed because of easy loans, so I agree with you, being able to get under debt easily is not a good thing.

The problem with China are all the misinformation that are spread, because the Chinese government are not very transparent, when it comes to the distribution of information. 

A lot of independent economists are making their own predictions and analysis, based on the little amount of information that are available. We know China are hiding a much bigger problem, but we do not know how bad it is, so we will probably only know when the sh1t hits the fan... and then it will be too late, because this will have a huge ripple affect all over the world. with China being one of the biggest economies on this planet. 

China’s economic future could go a few different ways. One option is that China adapts by focusing more on domestic innovation and technology, and building stronger trade relationships with other countries. This could help China find new areas of growth and keep developing, though possibly more slowly.

Another possibility is that China makes policy changes to fix current problems, like improving the business environment and attracting more foreign investment. There’s also the chance that China could increase government control over the economy, which might offer short-term stability but could affect long-term efficiency. Lastly, China might seek new trade partners and alliances outside the West to reduce reliance on Western markets and find new economic opportunities.

Being able to got under debt so easily is not as good a sign as you may think. It just shows that your economy is heading in a very dangerous path of becoming a debt-based economy which only has one eventual result: collapse as the debt piles on.

Not to mention that debt-based economy is a lot worse for Germany than it is for US because the US regime could successfully run a Ponzi scheme and export its inflation postponing the collapse, Germany cannot do any of that.

The idea of making stuff seems like the next stage because they realized the ydo not have to rely to anyone that way. If they continue with their old system and just made stuff for others then it wouldn't be good for them since it would mean the moment they take their manufacturing to another nation then China would collapse, and we are seeing the pains of that right now, because that already happened with some companies and that's why China did this.

These are a ll growing pains and I believe that we are going to see China be strong again. Remember, this is a nation that doesn't care about their citizens as much as they care about their national power, they would sacrifice people in sweatshops which they already did, they had to literally put suicide nets to their own factories, but that made them richer. When you say China is rich, do not think it's the normal people, many of the normal people are dirt poor and hungry, it's the party that is rich.

I think you are onto something here when you mentioned the democrats & Obamala because this is the exact traitorous soft policy on China what Trump is trying to abandon.