Topic: The continuing decline of China's economy - what are the implications ? - page 4. (Read 1321 times)

As we know and observe - in recent years, China's economy has not only experienced “difficult times” but has also gone from growth to decline. The reasons are many - from COVID19, which hit the economy hard, to the changing relationship with the West, resulting in the loss of markets, investment, access to technology and other things that China is heavily dependent on.
Destabilization in China is guaranteed to create a lot of economic difficulties in neighboring countries, as well as on the geopolitical map of the world, where everything is not good.

What happens next ?  I will assume this scenario:

1. Increased withdrawal of Western investment and Western industries from China (related primarily to political conjuncture)
(We are roughly here now)
2. Attempts of the Chinese government to “spare no expense” to keep the economy afloat, which will lead to the burnout of strategic reserves, and will allow to “come to the edge of the abyss”, where without huge Western infusions of money into the Chinese economy the problem will not be solved.
3. strict administrative measures and transfer of the economy under the control of the state, with the curtailment of economic freedoms, which will negatively affect both the efficiency and quality of the economy.

The question is what's next? Realization and acceptance of the problem and correction of mistakes, ceasing to pretend to be the “second pole of the world”, establishment of relations with the West, refusal from dubious “friends”, reintegration into the world economy ? Or ? There may be a path of totalitarianism and isolation, militarization of politics to distract the population from pressing problems and getting the right to total control over people and management of private business ...

Question - what options for the development of events can you assume in connection with this situation?

Technically speaking they are moving away from that and it is a good thing for the world. So, it would be wrong to say that China makes everything, there are still some things that China does, like some car companies have China as their distribution centre for Asia, and apple uses them and many other stuff like sneakers etc etc.

However, I would like to point out that even that's not true anymore and everyone is looking for other places, the reason is that China wants their own products and they do not want to make America's products and give it back to them, they want to build their own products and sell those. That has been the case for a very long time, like look at how cheap their EV cars right now, they are not competing with Tesla, they never wanted to, what they want is to make sure that all the bikes and cars that are electric were their own products that they sell to billions of people in their own country and in India and everywhere around, even going as west as some European nations which are not rich.

Yeah, unfortunately, it's China that's indeed running the show now. And it's not hard to prove this. We only have to realize that everything is made, produced, assembled, manufactured in China from paper clips and erasers to the very materials that made the building in which we live. T

I can dispute this statement as I believe it to be erroneous.  The fact is that although China is the World Factory of Everything, most of the goods produced by China are not CRITICAL goods. 90% of Chinese goods can either be discarded or replaced by financing and supporting local producers.
Can you list - what goods/technologies/services does China produce that are unique to the world economy and cannot be produced by other countries ? I see so far only options with rare earth metals and battery production.

Everything that's made in China could be replaced by local production. That's true. But how probable is this thing to happen? Great efforts have been made by the US to try to bring back companies to the fold. They only achieved limited success, if indeed you can call it as such.

The truth is that no other country can replicate China. It is only the Chinese government that has hundreds of millions of slaves at their absolute disposal. Therefore, it is the only country that can mass produce anything at lightning speed. Perhaps our only chance is for this massive body of human automatons to finally wake up. It is slowly happening. They're beginning to make demands. China will cause its own demise.

Anyway, my iPhone is made in China, so is my laptop. The rest of the appliances at home, from rice cooker to electric iron to the television to the stove and others are also made in China. The materials that made the house itself like cement and steel are also produced by China. Hell, even our vegetables, fish, and even as basic as rice are imported from China. So, that's basically my entire existence. That's how critical our dependence on China is. I hope this isn't your situation.

I can dispute this statement as I believe it to be erroneous.  The fact is that although China is the World Factory of Everything, most of the goods produced by China are not CRITICAL goods. 90% of Chinese goods can either be discarded or replaced by financing and supporting local producers.
Can you list - what goods/technologies/services does China produce that are unique to the world economy and cannot be produced by other countries ? I see so far only options with rare earth metals and battery production.

Yeah, unfortunately, it's China that's indeed running the show now. And it's not hard to prove this. We only have to realize that everything is made, produced, assembled, manufactured in China from paper clips and erasers to the very materials that made the building in which we live. The world is dependent on China today so much so that if China stops making products, the world might go back to its primitive days. I, of course, am exaggerating but everybody knows the point.

The West made a big mistake when they outsourced their production to China. Now the whole world depends on China. If China does well it is a problem because that means China will be the biggest economy. If China does poorly then it means the rest of the world will suffer from their problems.

You know what that means do you?

It means China is running the show now. Not the US.

That you cannot trust a communist is not that new.
Those tricks are not new either. There have even been warnings. Greed is what made Manager close their eyes and open their pockets.
Managers are paid for performance they are hardly ever punished.
What do you believe is just not mentioned, the grey zone, where CEO got told and said nothing, just to save face.  

Cisco didn't have a collapse, Cisco's sites, equipment and technology were simply seized in favor of the state. And I have my doubts that the directors of Cisco had information about such a move by the Chinese government. In fact, the government on the day when the “license to operate in China” was to be renewed, they were simply refused.

I agree on the entitlement of opinion, each it's own.

That you cannot trust a communist is not that new.
Those tricks are not new either. There have even been warnings. Greed is what made Manager close their eyes and open their pockets.
Managers are paid for performance they are hardly ever punished.

What do you believe is just not mentioned, the grey zone, where CEO got told and said nothing, just to save face.  

Do you know anyone who was punished for selling out from the cisco debacle?

As we know and observe - in recent years, China's economy has not only experienced “difficult times” but has also gone from growth to decline. The reasons are many - from COVID19, which hit the economy hard, to the changing relationship with the West, resulting in the loss of markets, investment, access to technology and other things that China is heavily dependent on.
Destabilization in China is guaranteed to create a lot of economic difficulties in neighboring countries, as well as on the geopolitical map of the world, where everything is not good.

What happens next ?  I will assume this scenario:

1. Increased withdrawal of Western investment and Western industries from China (related primarily to political conjuncture)
(We are roughly here now)
2. Attempts of the Chinese government to “spare no expense” to keep the economy afloat, which will lead to the burnout of strategic reserves, and will allow to “come to the edge of the abyss”, where without huge Western infusions of money into the Chinese economy the problem will not be solved.
3. strict administrative measures and transfer of the economy under the control of the state, with the curtailment of economic freedoms, which will negatively affect both the efficiency and quality of the economy.

The question is what's next? Realization and acceptance of the problem and correction of mistakes, ceasing to pretend to be the “second pole of the world”, establishment of relations with the West, refusal from dubious “friends”, reintegration into the world economy ? Or ? There may be a path of totalitarianism and isolation, militarization of politics to distract the population from pressing problems and getting the right to total control over people and management of private business ...

Question - what options for the development of events can you assume in connection with this situation?

1. Increased withdrawal of Western investment and Western industries from China (related primarily to political conjuncture)
(We are roughly here now)
2. Attempts of the Chinese government to “spare no expense” to keep the economy afloat, which will lead to the burnout of strategic reserves, and will allow to “come to the edge of the abyss”, where without huge Western infusions of money into the Chinese economy the problem will not be solved.
3. strict administrative measures and transfer of the economy under the control of the state, with the curtailment of economic freedoms, which will negatively affect both the efficiency and quality of the economy.

Everyone is entitled to their own view of a process.
But I have to correct your opinion a bit: at the initial stage, China guaranteed compliance with laws, rights of Western parent companies and investors' requirements, this fact is easy to check. The first “bells” started ringing after the “nationalization” of several high-tech companies. A “good” example would be the story of Cisco and Huawei. Cisco invested billions of dollars in the development of production in China - these are built factories, technologies, jobs. At a certain point, China, under cover of legislation, essentially took away these production facilities and transferred them to Huawei, which is under state control.

I beg to differ. Managers are not owners of a company, they benefit from the short term economical data.

An owner would not give up his development so readily to a country where you have little property protection, intellectual property that is.
The Western Manager Elite Sold out their economies, or made best use of elderly factory designs.

It's hard to believe that they did not know how China is protecting its own. 

It's not greed, it's pragmatism - everyone is trying to reduce the cost of goods and services.

Greed is a good motivator.
It turned out better for the World economy, trading chinese goods make up a huge part in the world's overall economy.

The West made a big mistake when they outsourced their production to China. Now the whole world depends on China. If China does well it is a problem because that means China will be the biggest economy. If China does poorly then it means the rest of the world will suffer from their problems.

The West made a big mistake when they outsourced their production to China. Now the whole world depends on China. If China does well it is a problem because that means China will be the biggest economy. If China does poorly then it means the rest of the world will suffer from their problems.

You know what that means do you?

It means China is running the show now. Not the US.

The West made a big mistake when they outsourced their production to China. Now the whole world depends on China. If China does well it is a problem because that means China will be the biggest economy. If China does poorly then it means the rest of the world will suffer from their problems.

You know what that means do you?

It means China is running the show now. Not the US.