Topic: The continuing decline of China's economy - what are the implications ? - page 4. (Read 854 times)

If the Chinese economy falls apart, the next thing that would fall apart is the Western economy specially the US economy that heavily depends on both importing hundreds of billions of dollars of goods from China and also heavily depends on Chinese work force since lots of their production takes place in China.

On top of that we all know that China is one of the biggest bag-holders of the US debt. In case of any kind of economic hardship in China, they'll start liquidating those bonds to get money to help their economy. That dump would burn the US economy to the ground.

But is the Chinese economy in decline? I don't think so. Their growth might have slowed down due to COVID and the follow up conflicts in the world but Chinese economy unlike a lot of other economies is the healthiest because it depends on production (as opposed to US economy which is a debt based economy with production mostly dead). That is why it is still growing rapidly.

Most of China's neighbors don't rely on China as much as you'd think. India for example is in competition with China, "destabilization" would help them. Others like Afghanistan are too ruined to be affected by anything. Others like Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, etc. don't really depend on China as much to be affected significantly.
That leaves Russia, which could potentially benefit significantly since it would tip the balance (of who depends on whom) in favor of Russia.

A lot of countries including US have been doing this over the past couple of years. Need I remind you how many of these companies US regime took to court? The biggest one was BlackRock. Wasn't that "curtailment of economic freedoms negatively affecting both the efficiency and quality of the economy" or is it just negative when China does it? LOL
I ask this because each time I've said the same exact things about Western economies you disagree and justify them and yet you use the same argument you rejected about China!

I read news of China's housing problems and other economic problems but when I look at the economic indicators, it doesn't look that bad. When I look at the indicators I see that it's exaggerated just as the economic problems of the US are exaggerated too. Don't get me wrong, I know there is a problem when you look at the monetary system you know it's a matter of time before something bad happens, but it's always reported as if the countries are crumbling.

Speaking of China, when you look at their GDP over the years you'll see that there is an increase. 2020 saw the lowest growth rate of 2% due to Covid obviously, but 2021 saw an 8% increase and it has been increasing ever since. In 2023 their GDP had a 5% increase. Now, all these considered, these are not bad numbers.
The same can be said about the inflation rate in China. The inflation rate is currently at 2% which is not that bad.
Per Capital income too has been growing (slowly) over the years and if the inflation rate is not too high and per capita income is growing that means people have more purchasing power.
The unemployment rate is at 5.2% as of July. It increased by 0.2% from the beginning of the year.
The Chinese Yuan is also relatively stable. After gaining on the dollar in 2023 to 6.78CHY it dropped to 7.20CHY this year and has maintained that range for a while now.

So yeah, I agree that all may not be well with the economy, but so is the rest of the world, but all things considered, I think they're doing okay.

As we know and observe - in recent years, China's economy has not only experienced “difficult times” but has also gone from growth to decline. The reasons are many - from COVID19, which hit the economy hard, to the changing relationship with the West, resulting in the loss of markets, investment, access to technology and other things that China is heavily dependent on.
Destabilization in China is guaranteed to create a lot of economic difficulties in neighboring countries, as well as on the geopolitical map of the world, where everything is not good.

What happens next ?  I will assume this scenario:

1. Increased withdrawal of Western investment and Western industries from China (related primarily to political conjuncture)
(We are roughly here now)
2. Attempts of the Chinese government to “spare no expense” to keep the economy afloat, which will lead to the burnout of strategic reserves, and will allow to “come to the edge of the abyss”, where without huge Western infusions of money into the Chinese economy the problem will not be solved.
3. strict administrative measures and transfer of the economy under the control of the state, with the curtailment of economic freedoms, which will negatively affect both the efficiency and quality of the economy.

The question is what's next? Realization and acceptance of the problem and correction of mistakes, ceasing to pretend to be the “second pole of the world”, establishment of relations with the West, refusal from dubious “friends”, reintegration into the world economy ? Or ? There may be a path of totalitarianism and isolation, militarization of politics to distract the population from pressing problems and getting the right to total control over people and management of private business ...

Question - what options for the development of events can you assume in connection with this situation?