Topic: The continuing decline of China's economy - what are the implications ? - page 2. (Read 1321 times)

For sure, they know the implications if they will go against to who is in the position right now. Hence, they are slowly lifting some actions that will favour the current US President. It is all about politics sometimes. They need to follow what's the current situation, else, there will be repercussions.

I don't know if it was mentioned here, but Trump has talked about how he will increase Chinese tariff another %10 for not stopping the drug trade they have. They just send all their drugs to Mexico (mainly fentanyl) and then spread to USA from there, and not like they are making much money neither, most do drug trade because they want to get rich, like Colombians did, and how Mexico is still doing, China only aims to ruin USA by spreading more fentanyl into the market and making people addicted, if there are none in the market, then there won't be anyone who is addicted to it, since there is none.

“Fear the U.S. more than it loves money. Putin's ally refused to work with Russian payments”
China has decided to prepare for Trump's arrival, and has started following US instructions.  Several banks in China have stopped accepting yuan payments from Russia over fears of secondary sanctionsfrom the US
Russian companies are facing mass blocking of accounts in Chinese banks such as Bank of China and Chouzhou Commercial. UnionPay in Russia is virtually paralyzed and holders of funds in this system cannot access funds.

It is the right decision - a submissive raw material appendage will not go anywhere, but it is necessary to follow the US lead, otherwise China's economy will not be saved...

The Chinese economy is very opportunistic, they saw the opportunity to grow in a pandemic and they did it Many said that Covid19 came out in China, they got sick first and then released it to the world, and that they took advantage of all the Opportunities that the market left them, This is speculation.

Obviously the government can do it , now that they are in trouble? For them , it is preferable to Start wars rather than be bankrupt, so the conflict with Taiwan could escalate into an unprecedented 3rd World War For me, that is the scenario closest to reality.

As we know and observe - in recent years, China's economy has not only experienced “difficult times” but has also gone from growth to decline. The reasons are many - from COVID19, which hit the economy hard, to the changing relationship with the West, resulting in the loss of markets, investment, access to technology and other things that China is heavily dependent on.
Destabilization in China is guaranteed to create a lot of economic difficulties in neighboring countries, as well as on the geopolitical map of the world, where everything is not good.

What happens next ?  I will assume this scenario:

1. Increased withdrawal of Western investment and Western industries from China (related primarily to political conjuncture)
(We are roughly here now)
2. Attempts of the Chinese government to “spare no expense” to keep the economy afloat, which will lead to the burnout of strategic reserves, and will allow to “come to the edge of the abyss”, where without huge Western infusions of money into the Chinese economy the problem will not be solved.
3. strict administrative measures and transfer of the economy under the control of the state, with the curtailment of economic freedoms, which will negatively affect both the efficiency and quality of the economy.

The question is what's next? Realization and acceptance of the problem and correction of mistakes, ceasing to pretend to be the “second pole of the world”, establishment of relations with the West, refusal from dubious “friends”, reintegration into the world economy ? Or ? There may be a path of totalitarianism and isolation, militarization of politics to distract the population from pressing problems and getting the right to total control over people and management of private business ...

Question - what options for the development of events can you assume in connection with this situation?

The Chinese economy is very opportunistic, they saw the opportunity to grow in a pandemic and they did it Many said that Covid19 came out in China, they got sick first and then released it to the world, and that they took advantage of all the Opportunities that the market left them, This is speculation.

Obviously the government can do it , now that they are in trouble? For them , it is preferable to Start wars rather than be bankrupt, so the conflict with Taiwan could escalate into an unprecedented 3rd World War For me, that is the scenario closest to reality.

No, China Doesn’t Really Have a Debt Crisis
Beijing is gun-shy about fiscal stimulus due to concerns more debt will build up. This thinking is muddled.

It’s also ludicrous to judge whether a debt crisis is looming based purely on simple accounting metrics such as debt-to-GDP ratios, which reflect what happened in the past. Instead, Beijing should think about what to do with the asset side of its balance sheet in the future.
Unlike Western nations that borrowed to fund recurrent government expenditures — think of the Greek pension system in the 2000s — the Chinese government has a different calculus.

China use to have one of the best economy and now things are looking different and if the economy of China is affected then every other things in the global economy will be affected because most of things that are produced from China will be reduced and their will be massive lost when the demand is low and since other people's economy is already affected then they are finding it very hard to increase demand because if their are no people to buy.

And the issue of unemployment is eating up everywhere and with the kind of population that China have they need to put everyone into consideration and that is why even the birth rate was increasing they looked for a solution to actually reduce the way the birth rate is actually increasing because if it continues that were is the job to give to the future ones that are coming.

And the reason why other countries will be affected is that China is one of the biggest countries with the largest economy even when it comes to technology and other things they are leading and they do business with a lot of countries and that is the main reason that it will affect the world economy.

I think the decline in China's economy will significantly affect the global economy and china's social economy and landscape leading to a major risks in business,market and major areas too.
Imagine the decline in the China economy has caused a high Chance of unemployment in the society and people unable to meet up to standards.This continuous decline is what I don't get because it's becoming so alarming and fustrating and neighbouring countries are being affected by this effects as well but with time I believe they can scale through this a whole lot if they can make some certain adjustment in the economy or need help from neighbouring countries too.

The only thing which starts to change a economic outcome is the American way of hand out to the only group which fires up an economy.
The consumer.

Unfortunately the Chinese similar to other leaderships concentrate on the ones who appear in the reports: Investors.   
The issue in China, as seen from the outside, is the group of people who where promised study hard and get a good well payed job. Something the US screwed up due to their student loans. The countries youth does not wish to eat pain

To answer your question, the increase leads to more debt on State level, no issue.
Should the government panic, Taiwan is their exit to that.

What do you think - what can the increase in government debt lead to, against the backdrop of huge corporate debt of Chinese companies, and huge debts of Chinese households ?

Chinese statistics are the new meme, apparently Perfect example : official statement - “gold reserves increased by 6.3 billion dollars”. The average person thinks that China bought 6.3 billion dollars in gold reserves. But the reality is as follows: as there were 72.8 million ounces in the reserves, so it remained.

As we know and observe - in recent years, China's economy has not only experienced “difficult times” but has also gone from growth to decline. The reasons are many - from COVID19, which hit the economy hard, to the changing relationship with the West, resulting in the loss of markets, investment, access to technology and other things that China is heavily dependent on.
Destabilization in China is guaranteed to create a lot of economic difficulties in neighboring countries, as well as on the geopolitical map of the world, where everything is not good.