Topic: The economic danger of China and Taiwan war (Read 716 times)
The threat of China and Taiwan's war is certainly very possible, Taiwan is never afraid to continue to be sovereign about independence, they do not care about the pressure from China because they feel they have strong support, of course this is a sign of the beginning that the war can occur at any time, it seems they are waiting for each other to war openly because no one wants to start.
The threat of China and Taiwan's war is certainly very possible, Taiwan is never afraid to continue to be sovereign about independence, they do not care about the pressure from China because they feel they have strong support, of course this is a sign of the beginning that the war can occur at any time, it seems they are waiting for each other to war openly because no one wants to start.
I am too scared what is going to happen if the things happen if there is a war between them Already world is bleeding - due to COVID - Afghan crisis - Russian invasion - inflation and now this thing is blooming on our head.
War is the biggest disaster and can destroy the economy in a short time, countries that are rich and have strong economic strength will experience a very difficult economic recession, this is because the economic sector of production, distribution and consumption will be disrupted, and I believe China will not war vs Taiwan because china's economy is currently very strong and will be destroyed if a war with Taiwan.
It would be a devastating scenario should China's plans of invading Taiwan be set in motion because Xi Jinping's powerhouse manufacturing sector spans across economies round the world including the US and Europe.
Trade with Russia before it's invasion of Ukraine by the US was $36b yearly while that with Ukraine was $4b. This doesn't scratch the surface of what the US traded with China which is $656b and that of Taiwan: $114b which includes some of the world's most advanced semi conductors. A possible attack of China to Taiwan will sure be a global depression.
Taiwan who broke out of China in 1949 during the end of china's civil war and believe to be an independent state but China sees differently. I just hope Xi would have a change of mind tho.
And don’t forget however that Taiwan, little as it may be, has ties and allies across the globe, including a relationship with USA that basically insures them from getting any offensive threats from China, as that would confirm that they are indeed pushing for war, and a stalemate with USA and its allies is not gonna be pretty for everyone because of surprise surprise, Nuclear Holocaust. So this standstill, despite its flimsy nature and the fact that it only ever relies on basic trust and faith, is still one of the only things we got before an extinction-level war ensues. Let’s just hope China releases its chokehold against Taiwan (which is ultimately still a farfetched dream) no matter how improbable, all for the sake of humanity. Trade with Russia before it's invasion of Ukraine by the US was $36b yearly while that with Ukraine was $4b. This doesn't scratch the surface of what the US traded with China which is $656b and that of Taiwan: $114b which includes some of the world's most advanced semi conductors. A possible attack of China to Taiwan will sure be a global depression.
Taiwan who broke out of China in 1949 during the end of china's civil war and believe to be an independent state but China sees differently. I just hope Xi would have a change of mind tho.
China is not yet militarily strong enough to challenge the US. China has a very large army (because of China's huge population).
However, the Chinese army has no real combat experience, since China has not taken part in military conflicts. As a result, there is no certainty that in real combat clashes the Chinese army will show its best and succeed.
China is a nuclear power. At the same time, it does not have parity in the number of nuclear warheads with countries such as the United States and the Russian Federation.
For China, the strategic goal now is not the occupation of Taiwan, but the development of nuclear armed forces to the level of the United States and the Russian Federation.
If this goal is achieved, then China will become the most powerful state on the globe.
It would be a devastating scenario should China's plans of invading Taiwan be set in motion because Xi Jinping's powerhouse manufacturing sector spans across economies round the world including the US and Europe.
Trade with Russia before it's invasion of Ukraine by the US was $36b yearly while that with Ukraine was $4b. This doesn't scratch the surface of what the US traded with China which is $656b and that of Taiwan: $114b which includes some of the world's most advanced semi conductors. A possible attack of China to Taiwan will sure be a global depression.
Taiwan who broke out of China in 1949 during the end of china's civil war and believe to be an independent state but China sees differently. I just hope Xi would have a change of mind tho.
And don’t forget however that Taiwan, little as it may be, has ties and allies across the globe, including a relationship with USA that basically insures them from getting any offensive threats from China, as that would confirm that they are indeed pushing for war, and a stalemate with USA and its allies is not gonna be pretty for everyone because of surprise surprise, Nuclear Holocaust. So this standstill, despite its flimsy nature and the fact that it only ever relies on basic trust and faith, is still one of the only things we got before an extinction-level war ensues. Let’s just hope China releases its chokehold against Taiwan (which is ultimately still a farfetched dream) no matter how improbable, all for the sake of humanity. Trade with Russia before it's invasion of Ukraine by the US was $36b yearly while that with Ukraine was $4b. This doesn't scratch the surface of what the US traded with China which is $656b and that of Taiwan: $114b which includes some of the world's most advanced semi conductors. A possible attack of China to Taiwan will sure be a global depression.
Taiwan who broke out of China in 1949 during the end of china's civil war and believe to be an independent state but China sees differently. I just hope Xi would have a change of mind tho.
So Taiwan is also a chip supplier just like Russia, hmm that's interesting but we also can't disregard the importance of china in the world. I think they have more resources which the world relies on when compared to Taiwan and Russia. Imagine if they will be put on sanction, I think you are right that the effect is going to massive than the recent Ukraine-Russian war but many users are saying that china won't fight because they already know what can happen. Not only because they care on other countries but they do care the most of their business. I remember china always wants to become number one but this war can only slows them down.
Taiwan has characteristics similar to those of Ukraine, and perhaps even more privileged.
Under the Taiwan Independence Agreement, the autonomy agreement will end within a short period, and Taiwan is supposed to return to China as a province free of self-rule. These items are very worrying for the Western alliance, since Taiwan enjoys a Western culture and is a tourist destination under many partnership agreements, in addition to its monopoly on some delicate industries such as semiconductors. Taiwan on the other side is China's most important strategic partner with a huge volume of trade exchange.
The battle is about preserving Taiwan's identity to ensure its loyalty. All this is happening without taking into account the Taiwanese themselves.
The situation has been further complicated by the fact that Washington has continued to support with military aid to Taiwan , making it difficult for China to make any significant moves that can be considered so risky. Finally, tensions between China and Taiwan remain high, with no clear resolution within the near future.
US economic sanctions hit China hard. This is due to the fact that China is now experiencing a period of rapid growth of its economy.
The bans and restrictions against the Chinese company Huawei hit China's pride very hard.
China is in dire need of the most advanced technologies, including those related to the production of the most modern and innovative microcircuits. Such microcircuits are now manufactured in Taiwan.
Does this mean that China will try to annex Taiwanese territory by military force? In my opinion - no!
China is a country with 5000 years of history. The Chinese Communist Party has a multi-year planning horizon. China is ready to get involved in a serious conflict with the United States and its allies, only if there are guarantees of its complete victory. There is currently no such guarantee.
Therefore, in my opinion, we will not see an aggravation of the military-political conflict around Taiwan in the near future.
The bans and restrictions against the Chinese company Huawei hit China's pride very hard.
China is in dire need of the most advanced technologies, including those related to the production of the most modern and innovative microcircuits. Such microcircuits are now manufactured in Taiwan.
Does this mean that China will try to annex Taiwanese territory by military force? In my opinion - no!
China is a country with 5000 years of history. The Chinese Communist Party has a multi-year planning horizon. China is ready to get involved in a serious conflict with the United States and its allies, only if there are guarantees of its complete victory. There is currently no such guarantee.
Therefore, in my opinion, we will not see an aggravation of the military-political conflict around Taiwan in the near future.
Recent researches shows that the economic activity is at risk of disruption from conflict in the Taiwan Strait is more than $1 trillion in the best scenario. The most significant disruption to global economic activity may come from the halt in Taiwan's trade with the world, particularly in semiconductors. The repercussions of such disruption will be seen in key chip consuming sectors such as electronics and computing.
In addition, China considers Taiwan one of its provinces, as it is its most important economic partner in the China Sea region, which China controls almost completely, since it economically controls all the ports of direct countries and spreads war arsenals throughout the region, threatening with constant danger.
It is necessary for China and Taiwan to work for a peaceful solution to their differences. Any dispute would have serious repercussions for the global economy, and it is in the interest of all parties to avoid it. The international community can play a role in encouraging dialogue between the two countries and facilitating a peaceful solution. In short, the world cannot ignore the current crisis between China and Taiwan, and every effort must be made to resolve it peacefully, despite the fact that there are many international parties inciting to fuel the conflict between the two countries.
In addition, China considers Taiwan one of its provinces, as it is its most important economic partner in the China Sea region, which China controls almost completely, since it economically controls all the ports of direct countries and spreads war arsenals throughout the region, threatening with constant danger.
It is necessary for China and Taiwan to work for a peaceful solution to their differences. Any dispute would have serious repercussions for the global economy, and it is in the interest of all parties to avoid it. The international community can play a role in encouraging dialogue between the two countries and facilitating a peaceful solution. In short, the world cannot ignore the current crisis between China and Taiwan, and every effort must be made to resolve it peacefully, despite the fact that there are many international parties inciting to fuel the conflict between the two countries.
It's no secret that the Chinese economy is overheated, has a huge debt load, and a lot of other problems. And the Chinese government simply does not know how to solve all these problems. Plus, for China, a much more difficult problem is approaching - "weaning from Western technologies." No matter how much we respect the Chinese economy, which over the past 30 years has made an indescribable breakthrough, but the basis of this breakthrough is TECHNOLOGIES! And I specify - Western.
Now the United States has taken the vector of a strong reduction in the supply of high technologies to China, and moreover, the withdrawal of high-tech industries to other countries.
For Chinese etokonics, this is, if not a collapse, then a guaranteed way back, 50 years ago.
But Taiwan is actually a magic wand that will solve all the problems of China - after all, it is an almost exclusive chip manufacturer for the WHOLE WORLD!
But there is a nuance...
China, used Russia as a guinea pig, and watched as the Kremlin Fuhrer, bravo promises to take Ukraine in a couple of weeks. And he was sure that the West would again turn its eyes away from this war, as in 2008 when Russia attacked Georgia. And this will open the way for China to take over Taiwan! After all, the calculation was to make sure that the West would again "cowardly sit on the sidelines." But it turned out that the Russian terrorist war of 2022 led ... to the UNION OF THE WEST, the STRENGTHENING of NATO, and the development of a strategy for the destruction of such cancerous tumors of the world. Now China is very indignant that Russia did not fulfill its promises, and moreover, it turned the situation around 180 degrees!
And now a Chinese occupation of Taiwan is becoming very unlikely...
Although I do not rule out that Taiwan will be given to China, but with a lot of conditions, a special status that China will be FORCED to comply with. Because in the event of hostilities, the key value of Taiwan for China will simply be destroyed ...
So Taiwan is also a chip supplier just like Russia, hmm that's interesting but we also can't disregard the importance of china in the world. I think they have more resources which the world relies on when compared to Taiwan and Russia. Imagine if they will be put on sanction, I think you are right that the effect is going to massive than the recent Ukraine-Russian war but many users are saying that china won't fight because they already know what can happen. Not only because they care on other countries but they do care the most of their business. I remember china always wants to become number one but this war can only slows them down.
Taiwan has characteristics similar to those of Ukraine, and perhaps even more privileged.
Under the Taiwan Independence Agreement, the autonomy agreement will end within a short period, and Taiwan is supposed to return to China as a province free of self-rule. These items are very worrying for the Western alliance, since Taiwan enjoys a Western culture and is a tourist destination under many partnership agreements, in addition to its monopoly on some delicate industries such as semiconductors. Taiwan on the other side is China's most important strategic partner with a huge volume of trade exchange.
The battle is about preserving Taiwan's identity to ensure its loyalty. All this is happening without taking into account the Taiwanese themselves.
Recent researches shows that the economic activity is at risk of disruption from conflict in the Taiwan Strait is more than $1 trillion in the best scenario. The most significant disruption to global economic activity may come from the halt in Taiwan's trade with the world, particularly in semiconductors. The repercussions of such disruption will be seen in key chip consuming sectors such as electronics and computing.
In addition, China considers Taiwan one of its provinces, as it is its most important economic partner in the China Sea region, which China controls almost completely, since it economically controls all the ports of direct countries and spreads war arsenals throughout the region, threatening with constant danger.
It is necessary for China and Taiwan to work for a peaceful solution to their differences. Any dispute would have serious repercussions for the global economy, and it is in the interest of all parties to avoid it. The international community can play a role in encouraging dialogue between the two countries and facilitating a peaceful solution. In short, the world cannot ignore the current crisis between China and Taiwan, and every effort must be made to resolve it peacefully, despite the fact that there are many international parties inciting to fuel the conflict between the two countries.
In addition, China considers Taiwan one of its provinces, as it is its most important economic partner in the China Sea region, which China controls almost completely, since it economically controls all the ports of direct countries and spreads war arsenals throughout the region, threatening with constant danger.
It is necessary for China and Taiwan to work for a peaceful solution to their differences. Any dispute would have serious repercussions for the global economy, and it is in the interest of all parties to avoid it. The international community can play a role in encouraging dialogue between the two countries and facilitating a peaceful solution. In short, the world cannot ignore the current crisis between China and Taiwan, and every effort must be made to resolve it peacefully, despite the fact that there are many international parties inciting to fuel the conflict between the two countries.
So Taiwan is also a chip supplier just like Russia, hmm that's interesting but we also can't disregard the importance of china in the world. I think they have more resources which the world relies on when compared to Taiwan and Russia. Imagine if they will be put on sanction, I think you are right that the effect is going to massive than the recent Ukraine-Russian war but many users are saying that china won't fight because they already know what can happen. Not only because they care on other countries but they do care the most of their business. I remember china always wants to become number one but this war can only slows them down.
Taiwan has characteristics similar to those of Ukraine, and perhaps even more privileged.
Under the Taiwan Independence Agreement, the autonomy agreement will end within a short period, and Taiwan is supposed to return to China as a province free of self-rule. These items are very worrying for the Western alliance, since Taiwan enjoys a Western culture and is a tourist destination under many partnership agreements, in addition to its monopoly on some delicate industries such as semiconductors. Taiwan on the other side is China's most important strategic partner with a huge volume of trade exchange.
The battle is about preserving Taiwan's identity to ensure its loyalty. All this is happening without taking into account the Taiwanese themselves.
If there is a war between China and Taiwan, there will be world economic chaos, China is a country that has a major contribution to the world, in the event of a war, of course the world will be divided into 2 camps that will continue to make aftershocks in a conflict country.
China has the second world biggest economy after the united States. If war break out between China and Taiwan then this will have greater effects than the war between Russia and Ukraine. It is very certain that the United States would want to support Taiwan because it is benefiting huge from the country both in resources and economy basis. This war if it eventually break out it will affect the world entirely because many of the countries of the world depends on China for raw materials and man power for them to meet up with industrialization including to United States.
But, the fact that Russia ended up attacking Ukraine and nobody stopped them (even though helped, but not directly) and the worst that happened was sanctions, then we could assume that China could get away with it as well, who knows? That’s why we can never be 100% sure that China won't attack anywhere, there is a chance, high or low, but a chance of them doing it.
I already wrote - China is using Russia as a "guinea pig". And apparently, in 2022, Russia, reporting to its older brother, promised to "create a precedent" that would, in fact, allow China to also, without fear, get Taiwan. The calculation was that the EU /USA/..., as in 2008 with Georgia and in 2014 with Ukraine - the world will silently swallow these terrorist attacks, and accept the idea "great Russia has the right to do so." And then China will also say "we are great, we have the right to do anything with impunity"
But Russia greatly miscalculated, or strongly believed in its fake forces, and as a result, greatly framed China. And now China understands that it will not succeed in seizing Taiwan just like that, and there will be a lot of and very complex problems. That is why China has become less favorable to Russia, and now it does everything only in its own interests, completely ignoring the interests of its raw materials appendage.
But, the fact that Russia ended up attacking Ukraine and nobody stopped them (even though helped, but not directly) and the worst that happened was sanctions, then we could assume that China could get away with it as well, who knows? That’s why we can never be 100% sure that China won't attack anywhere, there is a chance, high or low, but a chance of them doing it.
A bit on China's economic woes: "The US has banned high-tech companies from building new factories in China for 10 years. The Biden administration has said US tech companies receiving federal funding will be banned from building 'advanced technology' facilities in China for the next 10 years." years.
The ban is part of a $50 billion plan to develop its own semiconductor industry.
American corporations are demanding more government support to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturers."
https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-62813956
The ban is part of a $50 billion plan to develop its own semiconductor industry.
American corporations are demanding more government support to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturers."
https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-62813956
of course there will be a pretty massive economic impact if the China Mainland and China Taiwan wars occur.. because global chip production still relies on Taiwan and many global companies put their R&D centers in Taiwan, and many other things where Taiwan is the a very strategic country in Asia and the world .. so if this is disturbed, of course it will make a fairly massive economic impact even beyond the war in Ukraine and Russia
So Taiwan is also a chip supplier just like Russia, hmm that's interesting but we also can't disregard the importance of china in the world. I think they have more resources which the world relies on when compared to Taiwan and Russia. Imagine if they will be put on sanction, I think you are right that the effect is going to massive than the recent Ukraine-Russian war but many users are saying that china won't fight because they already know what can happen. Not only because they care on other countries but they do care the most of their business. I remember china always wants to become number one but this war can only slows them down. 
Many political experts say that the tensions of China vs. Taiwan will soon explode and China will invasion to Taiwan, but if we look at developments in China I am sure this will not be done by China, there will be many losses that can make China a bankrupt country, different from Russia, who invited Ukraine because the Ukraine allies were not as strong as USA support to Taiwan.
You could never know what’s going to happen with a nation. I mean from what I am reading they are saying that military is doing or at least on the verge of a coup because of this decision, so there could be a logical reason for them to not invade anywhere and that would be lovely, we wouldn't want a war.But, the fact that Russia ended up attacking Ukraine and nobody stopped them (even though helped, but not directly) and the worst that happened was sanctions, then we could assume that China could get away with it as well, who knows? That’s why we can never be 100% sure that China won't attack anywhere, there is a chance, high or low, but a chance of them doing it.
I also agree that the ongoing excitement between Taiwan and China is a dire signal for the entire world economy. In particular, a large part of global trading travels over Taiwan's maritime borders. Moreover, one of the world's most technologically advanced countries Japan will face a terrible situation. Overall the whole world will go through a terrible situation if this war starts so I think the two countries should reconcile before the situation worsens.
If there is a war between China and Taiwan, there will be world economic chaos, China is a country that has a major contribution to the world, in the event of a war, of course the world will be divided into 2 camps that will continue to make aftershocks in a conflict country.
I can't imagine the two countries going to war because it would worsen global conditions,Currently, the war between Russia and Ukraine is still ongoing and has many negative impacts,
at this time it can be said that the global economy is in chaos and this is a difficult condition
I don't know why USA is always at the forefront when there is a war related issue
The USA has killed so many national solder and have taken so many innocent lives of the people - now this is another war looming - God have mercy on us.
There a reason behind this, USA will not spend a lot of money if they will gain nothing from this.The USA has killed so many national solder and have taken so many innocent lives of the people - now this is another war looming - God have mercy on us.
They have been the strongest country that many countries rely to in return of something, and with this most probably Taiwan will play bigger role for USA and that’s why they will do everything to protect it. Now, with a clear statement from USA, it looks like China wont go for a war because they can’t also afford to have this, they are also struggling economically and with the possible sanctions, they might suffer more.
They are the number 1 power in the world and want to influence all countries in the world, this confirms their number one position and moreover they are the world's leading arms exporter country since the world since After World War II. It can be said that once there is a war, they are the most profitable country.
It is understandable that the two sides compete for Taiwan, it can be seen that Taiwan is the mainstay of the world's semiconductor industry. Taiwan accounts for more than 50% of the world's semiconductor industry market share and all technological equipment depends on this sector. If anyone holds the field, they are considered the future holder of the world.
In my opinion, whether China will launch an attack on Taiwan will depend a lot on the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
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