The economic danger of China and Taiwan war - page 2.

wiss19

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Quote from: fillippone on September 25, 2022, 03:54:22 AM

The relationship between USA and China is very much more complicated than the one it was between USA and Russia, even in the bad cold-war time.
The fundamental difference is the economic bonds between those two superpowers.
China produces a huge percentage of US goods, and can sell into US territory without tariffs. US sells his debt to the Chinese, being thus able to roll their debut once again.
I would say no one can afford being at war with the other.
OF course, there will be provocations, incidents and skirmishes. But I can't see a real war breaking out.

They are not really "enemies" like USA and Russia has been. I mean they are afraid of each other because they are the polar opposites of each other on politics, one of them is capitalist liberalism, the other is authoritarian communism, so it's literally the exact opposite of each other, but when it comes down to being enemies?

They are not enemies, not in a war type of sense at least, which is good for the world because we shouldn't really be anyone's enemy, the whole world should be in peace, I would rather have a world where military is never needed and long gone and we never need soldiers again, it's a dream world of course but that's an unfortunate thing, wouldn't we all want that?

Moneyprism

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of course there will be a pretty massive economic impact if the China Mainland and China Taiwan wars occur.. because global chip production still relies on Taiwan and many global companies put their R&D centers in Taiwan, and many other things where Taiwan is the a very strategic country in Asia and the world .. so if this is disturbed, of course it will make a fairly massive economic impact even beyond the war in Ukraine and Russia

Wong Gendheng

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If there is a war between China and Taiwan, there will be world economic chaos, China is a country that has a major contribution to the world, in the event of a war, of course the world will be divided into 2 camps that will continue to make aftershocks in a conflict country.

samcrypto

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I don't know why USA is always at the forefront when there is a war related issue
The USA has killed so many national solder and have taken so many innocent lives of the people - now this is another war looming - God have mercy on us.

There a reason behind this, USA will not spend a lot of money if they will gain nothing from this.
They have been the strongest country that many countries rely to in return of something, and with this most probably Taiwan will play bigger role for USA and that’s why they will do everything to protect it. Now, with a clear statement from USA, it looks like China wont go for a war because they can’t also afford to have this, they are also struggling economically and with the possible sanctions, they might suffer more.

kro55

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*STOP NOWHERE*

Quote from: bittraffic on September 20, 2022, 09:55:07 PM

Quote from: Sithara007 on September 20, 2022, 09:48:06 PM

Despite its huge population and stable economy, China can't simply afford to wage a major war. Human life has become more precious, as the Russians have just found out. Many of the families have just one child each nowadays and they don't want to sacrifice their children in needless wars. And in China, the situation is more exacerbated as a result of the one-child policy. An invasion of Taiwan will cost China millions of lives and there is no way the country can afford that. It was possible in the 20th century, but definitely not in the 21st century.

On the near side of Russia, there is a war going on but not on TV news. Azerbaijan vs Armenia. Pelosi also visited Azerbaijan after a massive attack on Armenia where almost 200 people I believe were dead. The war was also about the contested border region which is Nagornokaraba.

China vs Taiwan tension I guess is dying despite US ships passing thru Taiwan straight, China didn't engage.
If war erupts, Asia will really be disturbed. China has more influence and economic disaster will affect all its surroundings.

Hopefully that won't happen, the US and China should not make statements or actions that further stress Taiwan. China not only has great influence in Asia but it can be said, its influence is worldwide. Once war breaks out, the world will be plunged into a terrible crisis and possibly a third world war. I guess the US doesn't want that either because they are also having to strain their brains to deal with Russia, if China breaks out, they will be very distracted, which is not in their favor. And North Korea, they don't like America very much.

DrBeer

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it seems that China just decided to look, or rather watch the real model, using the example of Russian terrorism in relation to Ukraine. China did not say yes or no to Russia, and let the situation develop. Now China understands that the West will not sit idly by, the West has stopped adhering to "avoidance" in dealing with such problems.
China in this situation wins in ANY case
- if Russia wins (this is from the realm of fantasy, and even unscientific), China will get Taiwan, following the steps of Russia (read - the path of a terrorist)

- if Russia loses (and everything goes to this after the defeat of the regular army of the Russian Federation and the recruitment of all sorts of rabble under the auspices of mobilization), China will receive ... RUSSIA. The miserable remnants of Russia will need some sovereign, without this the terrorist country will simply be torn into small pieces.

It seems to me that China's choice is obvious: make a good face, agree and recognize the independence of Taiwan, receive some patronage and support from the United States, and receive Russian territories from the Urals to the eastern outskirts. Maybe Japan will also get its islands occupied by Russia

SaveOurSea

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Quote from: kryptqnick on September 24, 2022, 10:51:09 AM

While there's certainly more tension now between China and Taiwan, I don't think China will go to war over it. China is smart, it's learning from mistakes of others. For years, it's been favoring economic interdependence over military action while being prepared for military action should this option become a more viable one. They can see how terribly wrong Russia's war against Ukraine went: so much isolation and condemnation of Russia, seized international funds, also the fact that despite being a much bigger country with a much bigger military power, Russia failed spectacularly and continues losing in Ukraine, so much that the general mobilization seems like the only way forward. I don't think China wants any of that or is stupid enough to think that the war with Taiwan would go very differently. So, hopefully, the war won't spread like that. If it did, I agree that would mean an even bigger hit on global economy.

Yes - I have heard it and what is China preparing to be ?? do we expect another war and an other crisis?
The world is bleeding and there is a need for the peace. People are tired of all the mess the war lord are creating

Even this war between Russia and Ukraine is still not over and it would be crazy if another war were to come,
Currently, global problems are increasingly complex, especially inflation,
hope there will be good news and that's what everyone hopes for

blue_hurricanger

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Quote from: fillippone on September 25, 2022, 03:54:22 AM

Quote from: Kakmakr on September 20, 2022, 06:20:45 AM

Well, strictly speaking.... USA and China are already at war, with the financial & military support that they are giving to the Ukraine and Russia on both sides. Roll Eyes

They do not have feet on the ground, but they are funding the war and also giving specialist support on the military side.

The Taiwanese involvement will be more direct... so it will be officially seen as a direct influence in that conflict. It will send the global financial markets into a downward spiral and Crypto currencies will also feel the influence of that. Tongue

The relationship between USA and China is very much more complicated than the one it was between USA and Russia, even in the bad cold-war time.
The fundamental difference is the economic bonds between those two superpowers.
China produces a huge percentage of US goods, and can sell into US territory without tariffs. US sells his debt to the Chinese, being thus able to roll their debut once again.
I would say no one can afford being at war with the other.
OF course, there will be provocations, incidents and skirmishes. But I can't see a real war breaking out.

So a nondirect war, fought over the interest of both USA and China, you say? Sound a lot like we switch from the 'proxy wars' since the cold war to another similar to that. But this time, superpowers were holding back not by nukes but by the over-reliant on each other.

If another one hurt, it might hurt you back so don't force a direct war. Kinda true for the Ukraine-Russia war right now which US and NATO didn't intervene with troops but supplied weapons, ammos and intels. A similar war where Taiwan becomes the main battlefield and US & allies stand outside, supplying Taiwan like that against China sound very likely.

fillippone

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Quote from: Kakmakr on September 20, 2022, 06:20:45 AM

Well, strictly speaking.... USA and China are already at war, with the financial & military support that they are giving to the Ukraine and Russia on both sides. Roll Eyes

They do not have feet on the ground, but they are funding the war and also giving specialist support on the military side.

The Taiwanese involvement will be more direct... so it will be officially seen as a direct influence in that conflict. It will send the global financial markets into a downward spiral and Crypto currencies will also feel the influence of that. Tongue

The relationship between USA and China is very much more complicated than the one it was between USA and Russia, even in the bad cold-war time.
The fundamental difference is the economic bonds between those two superpowers.
China produces a huge percentage of US goods, and can sell into US territory without tariffs. US sells his debt to the Chinese, being thus able to roll their debut once again.
I would say no one can afford being at war with the other.
OF course, there will be provocations, incidents and skirmishes. But I can't see a real war breaking out.

Eternad

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Quote from: kryptqnick on September 24, 2022, 10:51:09 AM

While there's certainly more tension now between China and Taiwan, I don't think China will go to war over it. China is smart, it's learning from mistakes of others. For years, it's been favoring economic interdependence over military action while being prepared for military action should this option become a more viable one. They can see how terribly wrong Russia's war against Ukraine went: so much isolation and condemnation of Russia, seized international funds, also the fact that despite being a much bigger country with a much bigger military power, Russia failed spectacularly and continues losing in Ukraine, so much that the general mobilization seems like the only way forward. I don't think China wants any of that or is stupid enough to think that the war with Taiwan would go very differently. So, hopefully, the war won't spread like that. If it did, I agree that would mean an even bigger hit on global economy.

Yes - I have heard it and what is China preparing to be ?? do we expect another war and an other crisis?
The world is bleeding and there is a need for the peace. People are tired of all the mess the war lord are creating

Some of the wars that are already happening in different countries where not broadcasted to avoid too much collision of other nations. The China and Taiwan War been televised since US been saying that they will provide militars. Hopefully war will not happen and everything should be talk peacefully since it will affect not only this 3 country but more allies will interfere if ever China will react in what US said. There is still war in Russia and Ukraine and hopefully there is no more that will add in the list.

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Quote from: kryptqnick on September 24, 2022, 10:51:09 AM

While there's certainly more tension now between China and Taiwan, I don't think China will go to war over it. China is smart, it's learning from mistakes of others. For years, it's been favoring economic interdependence over military action while being prepared for military action should this option become a more viable one. They can see how terribly wrong Russia's war against Ukraine went: so much isolation and condemnation of Russia, seized international funds, also the fact that despite being a much bigger country with a much bigger military power, Russia failed spectacularly and continues losing in Ukraine, so much that the general mobilization seems like the only way forward. I don't think China wants any of that or is stupid enough to think that the war with Taiwan would go very differently. So, hopefully, the war won't spread like that. If it did, I agree that would mean an even bigger hit on global economy.

Yes - I have heard it and what is China preparing to be ?? do we expect another war and an other crisis?
The world is bleeding and there is a need for the peace. People are tired of all the mess the war lord are creating

as China have seen the ongoing effects of Russia-Ukraine war, whether on political, social, or economic side of things. i don't think they will make the same mistake of following the path of Russia. if in case they will put themselves in war, the sympathy will be on Taiwan and for sure a lot will help in their own ways to counter China. there's always the possibility for war to happen. but we are already in the age where govt top officials should consider the welfare of their people and not their personal interest. sometimes all they need is to sit down and work their differences and come up with some type of arrangements. we're already out in the barbaric period a long time ago, we don't need to get back in that period.

kryptqnick

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While there's certainly more tension now between China and Taiwan, I don't think China will go to war over it. China is smart, it's learning from mistakes of others. For years, it's been favoring economic interdependence over military action while being prepared for military action should this option become a more viable one. They can see how terribly wrong Russia's war against Ukraine went: so much isolation and condemnation of Russia, seized international funds, also the fact that despite being a much bigger country with a much bigger military power, Russia failed spectacularly and continues losing in Ukraine, so much that the general mobilization seems like the only way forward. I don't think China wants any of that or is stupid enough to think that the war with Taiwan would go very differently. So, hopefully, the war won't spread like that. If it did, I agree that would mean an even bigger hit on global economy.

fadhilz123

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Today there is hot news, namely the USA and Canada warships crossing the Taiwan Strait and making China very angry, but I am sure China will not go to war with Taiwan because of the support of many countries, especially China, Europe and so on.

How can you be sure that China will not go to war with Taiwan? Are you a foreign minister or an ambassador for the two countries. So you can be very sure just by reading a news without being there. This is a definite thing that cannot be guessed even though there is news, because news writers also make a little summary to contain the news they want and it is not just made up.

So you need to see clearly so that your guess is correct and every news you read you also need to see where the source is, because now there are so many news sites whose contents are incomplete so that everyone does not have to believe it immediately after reading it.

Vinaa77

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Quote from: gantez on September 17, 2022, 06:52:18 AM

From looking into the war in Taiwan, the dangers of third world war is coming. I read the effect is worse with Russia and Ukraine. USA is not very friendly with China and it is possible that China will close the straits for USA Navy movement in that environment this going to cause US to put sanction against China including trading sanction restriction of Binance.

What effect is coming if Binance is sanctioned to operate in NATO countries.

What you say is not part of the NATO treaty. If the USA closed the Binance exchange, of course other Nato member countries would not do the same. Apart from that, Taiwan is not part of the NATO membership. So that Nato will not interfere in the affairs of war openly with China.

DrBeer

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It seems that the topic of Taiwan may become irrelevant

Something is happening in China
Troops are massively transferred to Beijing, a column 80 km long was seen. There are massive rumors on Twitter about a military coup in China and Xi's early resignation from office. There are a lot of these posts and from different publications / media as well.
Moreover, China has canceled more than 6,000 (!) domestic and international flights. All tickets sold by high-speed rail are suspended. Rail traffic is completely suspended until further notice.

Mario Yamasaki

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I'm sure the potential for the Chinese vs Taiwan War is very small, China will not dare to invasion to Taiwan because he knows Taiwan has strong international support, especially the countries around China are USA allies, and of course China will be very loss because money and investment abroad can be frozen.

DrBeer

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To be brief - "China is ready to promote strong and sustainable relations with NATO - Chinese Foreign Minister."
It is foolish to think that China will destroy the ties with the United States with its own hands, which essentially support the entire economy of China. Taiwan, of course, causes a chasotok between the big toes of the Chinese government

But against the backdrop of growing internal economic problems, China will not risk the global destruction of the economy by US sanctions, which will clearly be in the event of aggression against Taiwan. China is not such idiots as the Kremlin crazy Nazis

tbterryboy

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Quote from: stompix on September 20, 2022, 10:36:46 PM

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I can say that the US and NATO will not be weakened if they can supply Ukraine with unlimited weapons. Instead, they are rather timid about supplying Ukraine with weapons, weapons are limited and how Nato's soldiers will fight without weapons in hand. Aid is a problem that is causing headaches for the US and EU because if Ukraine cannot end the war with victory, it will be a huge loss for all that they provide to Ukraine. There have been many warnings from military analysts that if aid continues to Ukraine, both the US and EU will deplete their arsenals.

Yeah, yeah, what has NATO sent to Ukraine? 20 PHZ2000 and 18 Himars? Out of 350 and one thousand? 100 field guns out of thousands?
Zero tanks out of god know how many, zero planes out of 12 000?

You're thinking that a military budget that just in case the US is half the size of the entire GDP if Russia will be unable to cover the losses?
Get your head out of Russian propaganda, it's not a nice place to be in!

What they sent doesn't matter, the power resides when you are winning and right now Ukraine has stopped defending and started attacking which means something must be going alright for them. What is the point of giving thousands of tanks, thousands of planes, thousands of missiles when you would only anger Russia? Give "just enough" and let the Ukraine win the war one way or another that’s the aim.

I understand that west has enough weapons to destroy Russia in a single day, they really would, just thousands of planes dropping thousands of bombs in a single day would already make them suffer and go back. BUT in that case, how can you guarantee that Putin won't go mad and nuke everywhere? That’s the trouble.

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Quote from: Davidvictorson on September 20, 2022, 10:37:20 AM

The economic effects of a conflict between China and Taiwan are shown by the following example. If a conflict ever breaks out, we already know that the US will really lose out to China in the semiconductor business. As no trade will happen. This will have a significant impact on Western domestic markets, causing previously unanticipated increases in inflation and shortages.

That is the result of USA not investing in the right places. They could build 10 chip factories with just one years worth of military budget, they have like 800 billion per year, which means 80 billion is more than enough to not only build the factory, but get the resources and even hire the most famous people who could.

It may not be working perfectly right now, because it takes years to develop great stuff, but they could at least give it a start. What I do not understand is that some stuff are obvious and it is going to happen, but every nation gets into them too late, why not get ready beforehand, get ready when the tech is available, so you would be doing fine when the time comes.

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I can say that the US and NATO will not be weakened if they can supply Ukraine with unlimited weapons. Instead, they are rather timid about supplying Ukraine with weapons, weapons are limited and how Nato's soldiers will fight without weapons in hand. Aid is a problem that is causing headaches for the US and EU because if Ukraine cannot end the war with victory, it will be a huge loss for all that they provide to Ukraine. There have been many warnings from military analysts that if aid continues to Ukraine, both the US and EU will deplete their arsenals.

Yeah, yeah, what has NATO sent to Ukraine? 20 PHZ2000 and 18 Himars? Out of 350 and one thousand? 100 field guns out of thousands?
Zero tanks out of god know how many, zero planes out of 12 000?

You're thinking that a military budget that just in case the US is half the size of the entire GDP if Russia will be unable to cover the losses?
Get your head out of Russian propaganda, it's not a nice place to be in!

Quote from: blue_hurricanger on September 20, 2022, 03:43:06 AM

This might be a lesson for China if they want to invade Taiwan since Taiwan is an island, if China could surround the Taiwan island and blockable all the incoming supplies from the US and its allies, stall enough time, you know.

You know which is the only capital of the world that is situated 50 meters below sea level? It's Moskva! Wink

Quote from: bittraffic on September 20, 2022, 09:55:07 PM

On the near side of Russia, there is a war going on but not on TV news. Azerbaijan vs Armenia. Pelosi also visited Azerbaijan after a massive attack on Armenia where almost 200 people I believe were dead.

Pelosi visited Armenia, not Azerbaijan, at least get the sides of the conflict right!

People should think first about the most important thing, what has China to gain from invading Taiwan?
Almost zero, if you think of chip manufacturers, then a small surprise for you, both TSMC and Samsung depend on ASML for their process, which is a dutch company. No ASML, no lithography no chips. Wink

They will get a few bombed plants, 20 million people that will hate them forever, and lose 70% of their export market, for, what?

Topic: The economic danger of China and Taiwan war - page 2. (Read 721 times)