Topic: The economic effect of people flying from RF mandatory conscription (Read 989 times)

Russia still really enjoys the advantage in people and is now simply throwing “live meat” at the Ukrainian front, since large losses force the Russian front to be replenished with mobilization resources of 30,000 people every month and they simply do not have time to more or less properly prepare them for military action. This is one of the reasons for the greatly increased losses of the Russian army in battles against Ukraine.

According to British intelligence estimates, in May and June alone, the Russian army lost about 70 thousand of its soldiers killed and wounded in Ukraine.
https://www.ukr.net/news/details/russianaggression/105631208.html
This roughly corresponds to the data of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which on May 1 indicated the number of irretrievable losses of Russia in the amount of 469,840 people, and on July 1 - 543,810 people, that is, the difference was about 74 thousand. The increased losses are also explained by the expansion of the front in the Kharkov region and the shortage of tanks and armored vehicles in Russia, as a result of which infantry often storm Ukrainian positions without armored vehicle cover. In addition, if previously for one gun shot of the Ukrainian Armed Forces there were seven shots fired by the Russian occupiers, now this figure is leveling out and has become one in three. Therefore, the Kremlin began to urgently need soldiers, and as a result, one-time payments when concluding a contract in Russia increased from 200 thousand rubles to 1.6 million rubles, depending on the region.

The question is how long will Russians agree to die in Ukraine for big money. Former female prisoners have already been spotted in Russian assault squads, since Russian prisons have almost run out of men. The Armed Forces of Ukraine admit that Russian women do not surrender, they save the last grenade for themselves.

The Croatian people never made peace with those butchers who never apologized for their mass crimes, but mostly treacherous politicians never had a problem with that. It's the same thing in Ukraine, the Russians attack hospitals, kindergartens and schools and claim that this is not happening - in Croatia, Serbs killed 402 children and no one ever expressed regret for that.


Apparently, they have recovered enough to be able to attack other countries, without taking into account how many people they lose in the process. If you look at Western Europe, the situation is not any better, the labor force is mainly obtained from the eastern member states and through migrant routes in the permeable Schengen area. As you know, my country is on the outer border of that area, and last year alone, over 60 000 illegal migrants entered Slovenia from my country. Controlled release of people with stories about how the police guard the borders has become a daily occurrence.

Well, you made peace with Serbia, right? There is hope, not now of course but sometimes peace can settle in some really weird places!
If you look back at ww1 Central Europe ods would have been 1.01 of czechs,slovaks,hugarians,austrians killing each other till there was nothing left!


They have never truly recovered to prewar WW2 level on par with other countries and what you see now in inner Russia (so Moscow and St Petersburg) is because of massive inflow from former -stan and other countries, which will not happen if there is no money!
After the jewish population, the russians have the lowest fertility rate of all 30+ groups in Russia!
Once Putin is done with the minorities they will be worse than South Korea!

Russia will not of course go entirely destroyed but it will be the first world power of the last century to fade into irrelevance!

The war will continue until the leading politicians in one or both countries change, but I honestly do not see a peaceful solution to the conflict at this moment. Ukraine simply must not give in at any cost, because it will remain without occupied territories forever, and Russia and its emperor will never retreat peacefully after all the losses they have suffered since the beginning of the war.

However, what Russia has as the most consumable goods are people, and not those from the biggest cities where life goes on almost normally, but from the rural areas from which most of the cannon fodder is recruited. In addition, I read that people who came to work in Russia are often found among the war fighters, and this only shows the level of recklessness or perhaps despair in their ranks.

However, if we look at history, Russia has always recovered from every war, and even if 10 million people die, I have no doubt that it will be too big a problem.

And a lot of Russians and Russia's supporters look at the GDP and claim everything is fine!
The thing is GDP doesn't matter in a war economy, Nazi Germany's main country GDP (excluding occupied lands) grew during 5 out of the 7 years of the war and surprisingly in nominal terms in 45 was just 15% lower than back in 1939!

They don't understand the circumstances of actual labor productivity and stagnation in other areas.
You build a 10 million tank and that gets blown in 6 weeks, wow you increase the GDP by 10 million, you have 3 people employed, and you also spend on ammo and fuel, and everything looks fine, but another country buying 100 trucks to improve transportation for goods between suburbs and the main cities will get a way better economical gain from that!
The USSR increased its GDP like that, with the millions of vehicles produced, they all rot either destroyed in Ukraine or abandoned in Siberia, and they have bought nothing economically.

Gazprom lost money for the first time in their history, and now Russia wants to keep the agreement for the gas transition, pretty telling how much desperate they are to sell gas for euros and USD! They seriously don't understand they're falling into the same trap the USSR did after Afghanistan and this time it will be 10 times worse.

Unfortunately, this will keep dragging on, and no matter how worse this will end for the Russians the suffering of Ukraine is the real tragedy.



 

The head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, said during a speech at the Financial Congress in early July that Russia is faced with three main problems for the Russian economy.
"I would now highlight three types of restrictions, they are interconnected. This is the labor force. The situation shows us that we can no longer grow extensively and growth can only be due to labor productivity, and labor productivity is technology. And for us there are restrictions “is access to technology, our own technological development,” Nabiullina noted.

She noted that according to the Central Bank of Russia, three-quarters of Russian enterprises faced a labor shortage. Nabiullina added that for the Russian economy to grow, it is also necessary to find long-term sources of investment financing.
Source: https://censor.net/ru/n3497975

All three problems of the Russian economy - the labor shortage, the difficulty of obtaining technology and attracting long-term investments - are directly related to Russia's military invasion of Ukraine and the international sanctions imposed on Russia. The labor shortage is caused by the eight-year decline in the birth rate and high mortality in Russia, the partial and hidden mobilization of men for the war in Ukraine and large losses in the war, as well as their travel abroad to avoid mobilization.

According to a study by the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the personnel shortage in Russia at the end of 2023 amounted to 4.8 million people.
https://www.forbes.ru/biznes/503229-ekonomisty-ran-ocenili-deficit-kadrov-v-rossii-pocti-v-5-mln-celovek

Despite the fact that in Russia, with a large population, there is also a significant mobilization resource, however, it seems that it also tends to end. After more than two years of war in Ukraine and colossal losses in manpower and equipment, the Russians no longer agree to be “living meat” for any money. Therefore, payments to contract workers are growing not several times, but tens of times. The average amount of payments in Russia has increased 80 times over two years. The main growth is in 2024. A one-time additional payment to mercenaries in poor regions exceeds the average income tens of times (in Adygea - 55 times). But even with these numbers there are problems.

Some people are ready to fight for more or less money. But the majority are not ready to fight for any money. At the same time, in Moscow, as in the Russian regions, stress from the war is drowned out with vodka.

Under such conditions, there is only one way out for the Kremlin - mass forced mobilization, which they do not want to do yet. But if mobilization is announced, Russians will flee the country en masse.

For a year and nine months now, Putin’s Russia has been regularly sending its citizens to Ukraine for slaughter in order to destroy this state. But if at first they were sent to the war in Ukraine mainly from the far outskirts of the Russian Federation, now, thanks to the rapid destruction of “live meat,” they are now reaching the central regions of Russia. Moreover, information is leaking to the media about the colossal human losses in this war and the Russians are very concerned that they themselves could become this “temporary living meat”, and therefore their attitude towards the war began to change. If previously about 70 percent of Russians consistently supported the war, now this figure has dropped significantly. But nevertheless the war continues. Russia has already lost more than 330 thousand of its soldiers and the conveyor of death continues...
Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimated that in November 2023, the Russian army was losing an average of 931 soldiers per day, the highest figure for the entire war. And the current assault on Avdeevka, which has been going on for almost two months, is the main reason for such a grandiose grinding down of the Russian Armed Forces.

First of all, it must be taken into account that Russia attacked Ukraine and is waging an aggressive unjust war on foreign territory. It is the duty of every citizen to defend his country, and not to participate in the attack on other neighboring states. Therefore, I believe that in this case it is quite logical to avoid mobilization for this war for the sake of Putin's imperial ambitions.

According to Ukraine, Russia has already lost only 237,680 of its military personnel killed in this war, who, with weapons in their hands, came to Ukrainian soil to kill their inhabitants. More than 320,000 people have been killed and missing in Ukraine, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, which is provided to Putin. The number of wounded is usually three times the number of those killed. That is, Russia has already lost more than a million of its able-bodied citizens. For what?

The number of military equipment losses by Russia, which, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, invaded Ukraine, is also impressive:
- 4107 tanks,
- 8026 armored vehicles,
- 315 aircraft,
- 310 helicopters,
- 4481 artillery systems,
- 683 MLRS,
- 425 air defense systems.
- 7044 tanks and other vehicles,
- 3820 drones,
- 666 special equipment,
- 18 ships and boats, etc.

Due to the failed war, which has already been going on for about a year and a half, and the imposed sanctions, the Russian economy is falling apart at a relatively fast pace. And many more generations of Russia will have to pay reparations to Ukraine for the destroyed cities and villages, destroyed infrastructure, killed and maimed its citizens. Many sensible residents of Russia see that there are no normal prospects for life in this country and leave it, if not forever, then for a long time ...

Universal conscription should be in all countries. Another thing is where and how it should take place and how long it will last. You cannot fully rely on a contract professional army alone.
In history, idiots like Putin often appear in Russia, who suddenly find themselves calling to conquer a neighboring state. What will happen if the professional army is defeated, and the rest of the men of the state that was attacked never held a weapon in their hands? Then the fall of such a state would be absolutely logical. No, all men of military age should always be ready to defend their country.

In today's war, if we talk about the aggressor country, Russia, it has created a lot of problems. In addition to the degradation and destruction of the economy, the loss of political weight in the world, the disclosure of the fake "powerful economy" and the "second army of the world", Russia also received an economic and social problem. Today, the following problems are actively manifesting themselves or will soon "declare themselves":
- A decrease in population growth, or rather, an increase in a decrease in population. At the beginning of 2023, the Russian Ministry of Statistics officially announced almost 1,000,000 annual population decreases, although until recently there was a "stable population growth".
- Apparently - "140 million people in Russia" is also a fake. Considering the recently discovered statistics (pensions, taxes, etc.), one can come to the conclusion that this is at best 80-90 million. Not 140 million. Another fake that is worth studying in detail.
- According to unofficial data, from 2 to 5 million left Russia, the most productive population. These are people with education, brains and money. They don't want to become disposable consumables for playing war as a crazy pathetic parody of the Fuhrer. Between a "great country" and a normal life, they choose the latter.
- Died and cripples after participating in the war in Ukraine. It is already officially known about more than 135,000 dead Russian terrorists on the territory of Ukraine. this means that there are approximately 300,000 more disabled from injuries. And this war has not ended yet, Russia has at least 2 more waves of mobilization ahead.

In total, we have: an irreversible fall in the possibilities of the economy due to a critical decrease in the able-bodied, productive population. Yes, there are still many millions of low-skilled, marginalized workers who will never be able to form the added value of goods and services. They will also not be able to consume enough goods and services due to low income levels, which freezes the economy. No money movement - no economy. Social degradation of the population - the death and escape of a million men of fertile age - who will be replaced? "Great leader", as suggested by some politicians in Russia, will become a donor for conception? By the way, this is not a joke, this real proposal was put forward by one of the deputies of the Federation Council
There is also a noticeable decline, even in rubles, in the income level of the mass population of Russia. And plus hidden inflation, which will soon break out. If Russia is lucky, it will turn into a huge North Korea. But this is a highly optimistic scenario

The negative economic effect from the decrease in the number of the working-age population of Russia due to the fact that people leave the country in order not to go to war, this is only one and not the biggest problem that awaits Russia because of the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin has clearly miscalculated and cannot defeat the Ukrainians on the battlefield. It seems that they have decided to wage war on the depletion of resources. But more than 50 states are helping the Ukrainians, and their potential far exceeds the Russian one. This will lead the Russian Federation to the inevitable disintegration into separate independent states. And this problem is much more global.

Rosstat published data on the departure of Russians abroad for the first half of 2022. In total, 8.5 million people left the country for various purposes, which is 25% more than from January to June 2021, when about 6.8 million Russians crossed the border to leave.

The war provoked two large waves of emigration from Russia. The exact number of those who left and did not return was not disclosed by the authorities. According to the minimum estimates of The Bell, more than 500 thousand people left their homeland.
In early spring, hundreds of thousands of people hurriedly left the country due to rumors of a possible border closure. The borders of power were left open, and many of those who left in the spring returned to the country, only to be on the run again seven months after the announcement of mobilization. In addition to the general panic and the buying up of air tickets that have risen in price at times, many kilometers of queues at land borders were added in the fall.

It is almost impossible to calculate exactly how many people have left the country since the end of February. This is recognized by both economists and demographers. The FSB monitors the number of departures from Russia, but it is impossible to draw conclusions from its data about how many people emigrated and where they moved. Firstly, one person can go on vacation to Turkey in the summer, return, and then fly to Kazakhstan on business - for the FSB, this will be two trips out of the country. Secondly, people can use countries as staging posts on their way to another point. Let's say someone flies from Moscow to Istanbul, and from there to Tbilisi. For Russian statistics, he will have gone to Turkey, not to Georgia.

  The media, citing sources familiar with Kremlin estimates, claim that approximately 700,000 people have left Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine. According to demographer Igor Efremov, we are talking about 400-500 thousand people who left. In two waves of migration, about 100 thousand IT specialists left Russia and did not return - this is a total of about 10% of the employees of Russian IT companies, said Maksut Shadayev, head of the Ministry of Digital Development.

I think that in connection with the last very broad wave of mobilization and the preparation by Putin of a large offensive against Ukraine in February-March, and especially if such an offensive fails again, then there will be a noticeable increase in those fleeing the war from Russia.

Listen to Russians
You see, they are not against war. They are afraid to be called up, by order of the president and the authorities they have chosen and supported. This is the whole "Russian world". Cowardice, lies, meanness, cowardice.
Instead of raising a popular uprising in 2014 against the murder of citizens of another country and the annexation of their land, they cowardly sat at home, and decided that this would bypass them. Most of them were even proud of it. And now, many have begun to hysteria in general, that they have nothing to do with it, they want to live, they need to save themselves ... No - not by stopping the war, but ... cowardly to run away and do nothing. The problem is that in 5-10-15 years these people will again elect such a bastard to power, at first they will applaud how he deftly "took the land from the Ukrainians / Moldovans / Georgians / .....", and then there will be another mass escape from the country and screaming "but we have nothing to do with it, it's not us!"

Do you know what Russian mothers say, whose sons went to kill civilians in Ukraine and destroy Ukraine, and were deservedly destroyed by the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? They curse ... no, not Putin, nor their Nazi, terrorist government, which essentially sent their sons like chickens to commit suicide ... They curse Ukraine, which their son went to destroy, having no reason to do so!

Partial mobilization concerns not only soldiers, it also concerns doctors.  In the Russian Federation, doctors are also military personnel.... 

The result of hostilities is a large number of wounded soldiers who need to be treated.  That is, doctors, instead of treating civilians from ordinary (but dangerous, and sometimes fatal) diseases, will treat wounded soldiers and officers. 

In my opinion, this will lead to an increase in mortality in the Russian Federation, which will further worsen the state of its economy.

No doubt professionals don't like wars because of the reason that they like steady and stable economy and they can work and find comfort anywhere they are. Doctors are in high demand, nurses and other professionals in health, so what do you think? They will leave to safe their lives and that of their families and most of them are bread winners of their homes. I don't think otherwise. Moreover, the Russian invading of Ukraine was not supported by the population. I remember there was a time they protested and police were arresting and taking them to prison. So if you have a war you don't support and you can find means to elope, I think that is the best thing to do.

I'll clarify a little. With a full-fledged, adequate contract army, people do not lose their jobs, but earn money by ensuring the security of their country. We are not to be confused with terrorist mercenaries who kill citizens of another country for money.

Strongly destroys the economy - a forced conscription, as they did in Russia, after the failure of "a successful 3-week special operation, by the forces of the second army of the world"
Now the most productive part - young people - is being taken away from factories, offices, schools, hospitals. Even more - out of fear, he simply runs away from the country, saving his life, because. those who were mobilized - they are not even provided with the minimum necessary, realizing that they live for 1-2-3 weeks maximum. Friends who are now defending Bakhmut write that the Russians are like sheep, wave after wave, sent to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Their equipment and weapons are like those of the last homeless people. Yes, artillery and MLRS are being poured from the back, Russia still has a lot of them. But manpower is really like on a chicken farm where stupid brainless chickens dutifully go to the slaughter.
And already now in Russia, many enterprises are stopping or reducing work. And given the second (I'm sure there will be a third and fourth wave of mobilization in Russia), the productive population will still be up to about 200-400 thousand net losses (killed), about 1 million wounded / disabled / mutilated (read incapacitated, useless for the country) . And also another 2-3 million fully able-bodied male population will flee from Russia. This is going to be a real crisis. But I am sure that Russia has a chance to become a new region of China, where they will be helped to restore their livestock

That's right, military service indeed makes the economy disturbed, a person who is supposed to work and get a daily wage must lose the wage, I think that military service must be immediately eliminated because I think the impact is also not significant.

I am a humanist, I always take care of our smaller brothers

But you were delighted early and stopped hiding from mobilization Your pathetic Fuhrer starts a new set of consumables from December-January, with which he plays war games.
Well, you know ".. even more people die in Russia from alcoholism and in accidents ... In addition, we are all mortal, and anyway, sooner or later we will die. This is normal" (C) Putin about 80,000 dead Russian terrorists, when meeting with fake mothers of soldiers

1. The population of Russia is not 145 million - this has already been discussed more than once. If we take statistics that were classified for some reason in 2022, then in terms of taxes, pensions and other indicators, we can talk about about 100 million.
2. At the same time, Russia is a leader in terms of children, normal families, deaths from alcoholism, the prevalence of AIDS, tuberculosis and other chronic complex diseases.
3. Degradation of the economy and the rest does not allow to have an acceptable level of meicine, as well as to produce most modern drugs. And imports are reduced to 0. Ask a non-Moscow resident - what happened to the assortment of good medications in pharmacy chains - you will be surprised
4. The enormous costs of the terrorist war, sanctions, embargoes, the drain (let's be honest - a cowardly flight from mobilization) of a huge number of productive population - all this has already launched irreversible processes in the Russian economy.


Ukraine now needs technical and financial assistance to counter the international terrorist, it is foolish to deny it.
Regarding manpower - from a personal example: February 25, 2022, the first day of a terrorist strike by Russia. My son and I went to sign up for the Territorial Defense. I had to stand in line for about 4 hours for my turn to reach me! This is one, not the most densely populated area of ​​Kyiv, this is ONE of hundreds of points for volunteers. These queues were about 2 weeks, then they just stopped recording, because. it was not even possible to process the minimum of all applications.

You lovers of the Russian world can't understand what it means to live as a person and not live in the wild, vile Russian world About honor, conscience, freedom - I won't even tell you, you still won't understand