Topic: The economic effect of people flying from RF mandatory conscription (Read 767 times)

For a year and nine months now, Putin’s Russia has been regularly sending its citizens to Ukraine for slaughter in order to destroy this state. But if at first they were sent to the war in Ukraine mainly from the far outskirts of the Russian Federation, now, thanks to the rapid destruction of “live meat,” they are now reaching the central regions of Russia. Moreover, information is leaking to the media about the colossal human losses in this war and the Russians are very concerned that they themselves could become this “temporary living meat”, and therefore their attitude towards the war began to change. If previously about 70 percent of Russians consistently supported the war, now this figure has dropped significantly. But nevertheless the war continues. Russia has already lost more than 330 thousand of its soldiers and the conveyor of death continues...
Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimated that in November 2023, the Russian army was losing an average of 931 soldiers per day, the highest figure for the entire war. And the current assault on Avdeevka, which has been going on for almost two months, is the main reason for such a grandiose grinding down of the Russian Armed Forces.

First of all, it must be taken into account that Russia attacked Ukraine and is waging an aggressive unjust war on foreign territory. It is the duty of every citizen to defend his country, and not to participate in the attack on other neighboring states. Therefore, I believe that in this case it is quite logical to avoid mobilization for this war for the sake of Putin's imperial ambitions.

According to Ukraine, Russia has already lost only 237,680 of its military personnel killed in this war, who, with weapons in their hands, came to Ukrainian soil to kill their inhabitants. More than 320,000 people have been killed and missing in Ukraine, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, which is provided to Putin. The number of wounded is usually three times the number of those killed. That is, Russia has already lost more than a million of its able-bodied citizens. For what?

The number of military equipment losses by Russia, which, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, invaded Ukraine, is also impressive:
- 4107 tanks,
- 8026 armored vehicles,
- 315 aircraft,
- 310 helicopters,
- 4481 artillery systems,
- 683 MLRS,
- 425 air defense systems.
- 7044 tanks and other vehicles,
- 3820 drones,
- 666 special equipment,
- 18 ships and boats, etc.

Due to the failed war, which has already been going on for about a year and a half, and the imposed sanctions, the Russian economy is falling apart at a relatively fast pace. And many more generations of Russia will have to pay reparations to Ukraine for the destroyed cities and villages, destroyed infrastructure, killed and maimed its citizens. Many sensible residents of Russia see that there are no normal prospects for life in this country and leave it, if not forever, then for a long time ...

Universal conscription should be in all countries. Another thing is where and how it should take place and how long it will last. You cannot fully rely on a contract professional army alone.
In history, idiots like Putin often appear in Russia, who suddenly find themselves calling to conquer a neighboring state. What will happen if the professional army is defeated, and the rest of the men of the state that was attacked never held a weapon in their hands? Then the fall of such a state would be absolutely logical. No, all men of military age should always be ready to defend their country.

In today's war, if we talk about the aggressor country, Russia, it has created a lot of problems. In addition to the degradation and destruction of the economy, the loss of political weight in the world, the disclosure of the fake "powerful economy" and the "second army of the world", Russia also received an economic and social problem. Today, the following problems are actively manifesting themselves or will soon "declare themselves":
- A decrease in population growth, or rather, an increase in a decrease in population. At the beginning of 2023, the Russian Ministry of Statistics officially announced almost 1,000,000 annual population decreases, although until recently there was a "stable population growth".
- Apparently - "140 million people in Russia" is also a fake. Considering the recently discovered statistics (pensions, taxes, etc.), one can come to the conclusion that this is at best 80-90 million. Not 140 million. Another fake that is worth studying in detail.
- According to unofficial data, from 2 to 5 million left Russia, the most productive population. These are people with education, brains and money. They don't want to become disposable consumables for playing war as a crazy pathetic parody of the Fuhrer. Between a "great country" and a normal life, they choose the latter.
- Died and cripples after participating in the war in Ukraine. It is already officially known about more than 135,000 dead Russian terrorists on the territory of Ukraine. this means that there are approximately 300,000 more disabled from injuries. And this war has not ended yet, Russia has at least 2 more waves of mobilization ahead.

In total, we have: an irreversible fall in the possibilities of the economy due to a critical decrease in the able-bodied, productive population. Yes, there are still many millions of low-skilled, marginalized workers who will never be able to form the added value of goods and services. They will also not be able to consume enough goods and services due to low income levels, which freezes the economy. No money movement - no economy. Social degradation of the population - the death and escape of a million men of fertile age - who will be replaced? "Great leader", as suggested by some politicians in Russia, will become a donor for conception? By the way, this is not a joke, this real proposal was put forward by one of the deputies of the Federation Council
There is also a noticeable decline, even in rubles, in the income level of the mass population of Russia. And plus hidden inflation, which will soon break out. If Russia is lucky, it will turn into a huge North Korea. But this is a highly optimistic scenario

The negative economic effect from the decrease in the number of the working-age population of Russia due to the fact that people leave the country in order not to go to war, this is only one and not the biggest problem that awaits Russia because of the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin has clearly miscalculated and cannot defeat the Ukrainians on the battlefield. It seems that they have decided to wage war on the depletion of resources. But more than 50 states are helping the Ukrainians, and their potential far exceeds the Russian one. This will lead the Russian Federation to the inevitable disintegration into separate independent states. And this problem is much more global.

Rosstat published data on the departure of Russians abroad for the first half of 2022. In total, 8.5 million people left the country for various purposes, which is 25% more than from January to June 2021, when about 6.8 million Russians crossed the border to leave.

The war provoked two large waves of emigration from Russia. The exact number of those who left and did not return was not disclosed by the authorities. According to the minimum estimates of The Bell, more than 500 thousand people left their homeland.
In early spring, hundreds of thousands of people hurriedly left the country due to rumors of a possible border closure. The borders of power were left open, and many of those who left in the spring returned to the country, only to be on the run again seven months after the announcement of mobilization. In addition to the general panic and the buying up of air tickets that have risen in price at times, many kilometers of queues at land borders were added in the fall.

It is almost impossible to calculate exactly how many people have left the country since the end of February. This is recognized by both economists and demographers. The FSB monitors the number of departures from Russia, but it is impossible to draw conclusions from its data about how many people emigrated and where they moved. Firstly, one person can go on vacation to Turkey in the summer, return, and then fly to Kazakhstan on business - for the FSB, this will be two trips out of the country. Secondly, people can use countries as staging posts on their way to another point. Let's say someone flies from Moscow to Istanbul, and from there to Tbilisi. For Russian statistics, he will have gone to Turkey, not to Georgia.

  The media, citing sources familiar with Kremlin estimates, claim that approximately 700,000 people have left Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine. According to demographer Igor Efremov, we are talking about 400-500 thousand people who left. In two waves of migration, about 100 thousand IT specialists left Russia and did not return - this is a total of about 10% of the employees of Russian IT companies, said Maksut Shadayev, head of the Ministry of Digital Development.

I think that in connection with the last very broad wave of mobilization and the preparation by Putin of a large offensive against Ukraine in February-March, and especially if such an offensive fails again, then there will be a noticeable increase in those fleeing the war from Russia.

Listen to Russians
You see, they are not against war. They are afraid to be called up, by order of the president and the authorities they have chosen and supported. This is the whole "Russian world". Cowardice, lies, meanness, cowardice.
Instead of raising a popular uprising in 2014 against the murder of citizens of another country and the annexation of their land, they cowardly sat at home, and decided that this would bypass them. Most of them were even proud of it. And now, many have begun to hysteria in general, that they have nothing to do with it, they want to live, they need to save themselves ... No - not by stopping the war, but ... cowardly to run away and do nothing. The problem is that in 5-10-15 years these people will again elect such a bastard to power, at first they will applaud how he deftly "took the land from the Ukrainians / Moldovans / Georgians / .....", and then there will be another mass escape from the country and screaming "but we have nothing to do with it, it's not us!"

Do you know what Russian mothers say, whose sons went to kill civilians in Ukraine and destroy Ukraine, and were deservedly destroyed by the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? They curse ... no, not Putin, nor their Nazi, terrorist government, which essentially sent their sons like chickens to commit suicide ... They curse Ukraine, which their son went to destroy, having no reason to do so!

Partial mobilization concerns not only soldiers, it also concerns doctors.  In the Russian Federation, doctors are also military personnel.... 

The result of hostilities is a large number of wounded soldiers who need to be treated.  That is, doctors, instead of treating civilians from ordinary (but dangerous, and sometimes fatal) diseases, will treat wounded soldiers and officers. 

In my opinion, this will lead to an increase in mortality in the Russian Federation, which will further worsen the state of its economy.

No doubt professionals don't like wars because of the reason that they like steady and stable economy and they can work and find comfort anywhere they are. Doctors are in high demand, nurses and other professionals in health, so what do you think? They will leave to safe their lives and that of their families and most of them are bread winners of their homes. I don't think otherwise. Moreover, the Russian invading of Ukraine was not supported by the population. I remember there was a time they protested and police were arresting and taking them to prison. So if you have a war you don't support and you can find means to elope, I think that is the best thing to do.

I'll clarify a little. With a full-fledged, adequate contract army, people do not lose their jobs, but earn money by ensuring the security of their country. We are not to be confused with terrorist mercenaries who kill citizens of another country for money.

Strongly destroys the economy - a forced conscription, as they did in Russia, after the failure of "a successful 3-week special operation, by the forces of the second army of the world"
Now the most productive part - young people - is being taken away from factories, offices, schools, hospitals. Even more - out of fear, he simply runs away from the country, saving his life, because. those who were mobilized - they are not even provided with the minimum necessary, realizing that they live for 1-2-3 weeks maximum. Friends who are now defending Bakhmut write that the Russians are like sheep, wave after wave, sent to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Their equipment and weapons are like those of the last homeless people. Yes, artillery and MLRS are being poured from the back, Russia still has a lot of them. But manpower is really like on a chicken farm where stupid brainless chickens dutifully go to the slaughter.
And already now in Russia, many enterprises are stopping or reducing work. And given the second (I'm sure there will be a third and fourth wave of mobilization in Russia), the productive population will still be up to about 200-400 thousand net losses (killed), about 1 million wounded / disabled / mutilated (read incapacitated, useless for the country) . And also another 2-3 million fully able-bodied male population will flee from Russia. This is going to be a real crisis. But I am sure that Russia has a chance to become a new region of China, where they will be helped to restore their livestock

That's right, military service indeed makes the economy disturbed, a person who is supposed to work and get a daily wage must lose the wage, I think that military service must be immediately eliminated because I think the impact is also not significant.

I am a humanist, I always take care of our smaller brothers

But you were delighted early and stopped hiding from mobilization Your pathetic Fuhrer starts a new set of consumables from December-January, with which he plays war games.
Well, you know ".. even more people die in Russia from alcoholism and in accidents ... In addition, we are all mortal, and anyway, sooner or later we will die. This is normal" (C) Putin about 80,000 dead Russian terrorists, when meeting with fake mothers of soldiers

1. The population of Russia is not 145 million - this has already been discussed more than once. If we take statistics that were classified for some reason in 2022, then in terms of taxes, pensions and other indicators, we can talk about about 100 million.
2. At the same time, Russia is a leader in terms of children, normal families, deaths from alcoholism, the prevalence of AIDS, tuberculosis and other chronic complex diseases.
3. Degradation of the economy and the rest does not allow to have an acceptable level of meicine, as well as to produce most modern drugs. And imports are reduced to 0. Ask a non-Moscow resident - what happened to the assortment of good medications in pharmacy chains - you will be surprised
4. The enormous costs of the terrorist war, sanctions, embargoes, the drain (let's be honest - a cowardly flight from mobilization) of a huge number of productive population - all this has already launched irreversible processes in the Russian economy.


Ukraine now needs technical and financial assistance to counter the international terrorist, it is foolish to deny it.
Regarding manpower - from a personal example: February 25, 2022, the first day of a terrorist strike by Russia. My son and I went to sign up for the Territorial Defense. I had to stand in line for about 4 hours for my turn to reach me! This is one, not the most densely populated area of ​​Kyiv, this is ONE of hundreds of points for volunteers. These queues were about 2 weeks, then they just stopped recording, because. it was not even possible to process the minimum of all applications.

You lovers of the Russian world can't understand what it means to live as a person and not live in the wild, vile Russian world About honor, conscience, freedom - I won't even tell you, you still won't understand

Ukraine did not ask other countries for help in the war against Russia by military personnel of other states. Ukrainians are still capable of resisting the horde from Russia on their own, but they are counting on the help of the civilized world with military equipment and financial support. The Russian regular army that entered Ukraine was almost completely destroyed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Mobilization in Russia will not significantly solve anything in the age of high technologies and high-precision weapons, which are now successfully mastered in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russian mobilization of poorly trained and equipped people will create more problems for Russia itself, which can already be seen after the massive wave of mobilization since September 21st.

Population of Russia is around 145 million. There maybe another 5+ million within the territories of Ukraine which were annexed by Russia. Ukraine is now having around 35 million citizens (after subtracting the 5+ million who are in annexed regions), and out of that around 10 million are living as refugees outside that country. If Ukraine doesn't receive support in the form of manpower from NATO and other allies, then in the long term it gets difficult for them to put up strong resistance against the Russians.

I'm impressed to read so many war game analytics! But how about thread following? Which is, remind me, Economy / Economics alright? Trading exchanges in Russia are under some kind of spell or something? Their trading sessions are showing some fantasy figures. This should and will affect most economy dependent population in the EU. It might involve US as well. Should we get back to the topic. Of course I foresee replies from "most experienced" wartime experts but, for sake of Bitcointalk! Focus!   

To compare the periods of mobilizations, it is also necessary to take into account a number of other factors. First of all, that Russia attacked Ukraine, and not vice versa, throwing an invading army of almost 300,000 people at it. Usually the attacking side is counting on its regular army, and not on additional mobilization of the civilian population after this army is defeated. And for a country that has been suddenly attacked by large enemy forces, it is quite natural and logical to mobilize as necessary to repel such an attack. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the population of these countries: in Russia there are about 240 million people, and in Ukraine a little more than 40 million.
In addition, covert mobilization in Russia was carried out even before the official announcement of its implementation, and I am absolutely sure that it will continue in the future.

I appreciate your concern for my life, but please don't project your own fears onto me. Moreover, partial mobilization in Russia ended yesterday, while general mobilization in Ukraine continues as before.

 

Fear, fear is eating you from the inside Nothing, considering your previous "brave statements", by the new year you will have a chance to prove not in word, but in deed how you will heroically defeat "NATO and Bandera"

Of course, you don’t know anyone who was mobilized, they don’t call anyone, the bald-headed terrorist didn’t announce any mobilization, and you didn’t hide anywhere from the summons to the draft board! So everything is there, in the heroic reality of a typical Russian

And they bury in all the cities of Russia - probably ... no one, just like that, for fun And they howl and snot - they are not called "mobiles" dressed in rags, and they are not told that they should buy women's pads and tampons for themselves in case their injuries

Lies and denial of reality, more precisely, total lies and total denial of reality - this is precisely the main "defense mechanism" of Russians, who perfectly understands what is happening and what is its "price", but tries to inspire himself, and deceive himself ... well, what still remains weak-willed and powerless residents of Russia?

At the same time, the Russians do not turn on the brain, and do not see that "a short, 2-3 week, victorious operation to denify Ukraine" has been going on for 9 months! Russia has lost the most important battles, lost vast territories previously captured by Russian terrorist troops, the army of Russian terrorists is suffering huge losses in modern history! And now that very "second army in the world" is forced to collect all sorts of rabble for mobilization, and also to try to revive the tanks of the 60s of the last century ... Because it's scary. Cowardice is another trait of international terrorists!

PS Yes, subscriptions give income, and all this goes to the penny to help ZSU, to destroy world terrorists and their one-time "soldafons" Yes, we are raising money to help our army, which protects our independence and freedom from Russian terrorism ... Oh yes, I'm sorry that I write words you don't understand - "freedom" and "independence"
So the crypt goes to the cause of destroying the brown plague of the 21st century!

PS If you go in our direction "defeat us" - write in private, I'll throw off my phone number, maybe you can save your life! 

You're right.  

Theoretically, a war could also break out in the south, which would affect the territory of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.  This war can be started by the Taliban.  On the other hand, China is likely to be able to protect these countries (especially Kazakhstan).  The countries of middle (or otherwise central) Asia are currently under the patronage of China.  

There are other risks for emigrants (conflicts with local residents, interethnic conflicts, etc.).  

At the same time, what is happening in Russia is monstrous.  And I'm not sure that Russia will be a safe place for people in the next 10 years.  Too much evil and aggression.  I try to reason with my compatriots, but many are acting like crazy.  Perhaps those people who left Russia made the right choice and everything will be fine with them over time.  I dont know.  

Perhaps Kazakhstan will become a leader among other countries of the former CIS, and Georgia will become a mecca for IT companies.  This is a possible option.

Partial mobilization will have a very negative impact on the Russian economy.  In addition to the men mobilized to the front, a huge number of educated and sought-after specialists (men of working age) left the country.  In addition, many have left their official jobs (at work they hand out subpoenas from the military commissariat) and are hiding.  Their wives and mothers are in a state of terrible stress and are also unable to work effectively.  Even those people who are relatively safe cannot focus on work, as they begin to realize that their future has been stolen from them.