Topic: The economic effect of people flying from RF mandatory conscription - page 3. (Read 978 times)

Russia is now rapidly falling apart as a single state. For a long time such unity was based on fear, coercion and violence. Now the fear among indigenous peoples is gradually disappearing as the central government weakens, which is caused by significant military defeats of the Russians on the fronts of Ukraine. And since Ukraine continues to quite successfully carry out offensive operations and inflict heavy military losses in manpower and equipment on the Russians, the weakening of the central government will only intensify and, at the same time, the desire of the outskirts of Russia for independence will grow. What Russia has always used in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine with the newly formed "republics" should soon begin in Russia itself. Putin in all such cases stated that he respects the right of nations and nationalities to self-determination and independence. Only the Chechen wars have shown that such a right to self-determination does not extend to the territory of Russia. But now the situation is changing. The Russian cadre army is practically destroyed in Ukraine, and the central government no longer has the strength to drown national movements in blood.
On the other hand, the sanctions are slowly but surely doing their job. Therefore, the outflow of brains and capital will only intensify. Russia faces a bleak future for many generations.

In such unjust cases, yes, I escape from conscription. I will not fight to fulfill the illusions of grandeur of some stupid politicians, nor will I fight to protect those rich people who are overweight from stealing the people’s money. In any case, this reserve conscription needs additional resources and this will cost additional money to the tired state treasury. Basically, the flight of the educated elite of scientists, engineers, doctors and skilled workers will also have a very negative impact on the crumbling Russian economy.

Of course, they won't allow this mass transit but I think it again caught them by surprise, they expected some to flee but note that many, and they can't really close the border with tanks cause that would send the wrong message, so they will try to pose as a free country while letting maybe a million slips and then when enough is enough strat with check-ups far before the border so they will stop them outside the camera range.

There won't be 100k fleeing a day, but no way they can prevent everyone.
If some are starting to shoot their commanders in recruitment centers or burn them down, no 1m fence guarded by a wild yak in the middle of nowhere will stop them from fleeing.


The highly value citizens were the first to flee, first because skilled ones have the brain to understand what's happening in the economy second because they are far harder to being brainwashed, and they know they can have a better life outside. Also they understand that once the 'less skilled" is killed on the front those gaps have to be plugged with something, and sooner or later it's full volkssturm mode where everything with two legs walking on the street minding his business will get trashed in a van and sent to the frontlines with a piece of paper telling him that once Igor Dummkopf is dead to take his rifle and charge at the enemy.

Reddit is full of images of prisoners with their papers, people that have been captured only 5-10 days after being drafted, someone has to fill the place, and at this rate, they are going to run out of unproductive soviet komrades.

The highly valued citizens, ie doctors, engineers, IT/Computer science related specialties, will not face conscription. Their skills are more valued in the home country rather than being shipped off to war. Conscription's usually been relegated for the people that bring man power, not technical knowledge. To the extent of the war, your core competency is that you be able to hold a gun and follow orders. There's plenty of Russians to choose from.

It shouldn't affect the economy anymore than a costly war and sanctions are already affecting the economy.

That is an expected thing, I mean why would they want to stay and go fight, when they could just leave to a cheaper nation and stay there until the war is over? It would not make sense to compare these two together.

I understand that there are some nationalistic people who see it holy to go to war and die, some even say it guarantees you to go to heaven if you die in a war for your nation, but you need to realize this is a war for Putin, he is the only one that wants it and no religion on God's green earth would guarantee heaven just because you died while trying to kill innocent other people in the name of your president, that's just not possible.

You are right, no one can fully control such long borders, and bribery and corruption are at a really high level in that country. However, if Russia closed its borders, there would not be such mass departures in columns that sometimes stretch for tens of kilometers, so I am sure that much fewer people would decide to leave the country illegally. Some speculations say that the borders could be closed by the end of the month, supposedly they are just waiting for the annexation of the occupied territories to be announced.

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This is not only specific to Russia, in all wars the poor are always sent to the front lines because they are expendable - while the children of the rich and politicians are declared unfit for warfare. The current prime minister of my country and the president were both incapable of defending their country when it was needed, and today they have a status greater than any warrior from that era.

One Russian general said something like this: "If the sons and relatives of all deputies and other leaders are sent to the front lines, then the war will end quickly"
In the meantime, many people from poor families are taken to the war, it will continue.

I would run away to avoid conscription. Why would I leave a good job or a good business to kill other people who didn't do anything to myself, my loved ones, or even my country? Why would I leave my family just to sustain a crazy invasion? Why would I leave a peaceful and good life just to support a violence that I do not share and am even embarrassed of. Even if I don't really want to, I'd leave my country with my family and be at peace somewhere else.

However, this is somebody speaking who is probably looking at the current invasion with a different lens. I don't idolize Putin. I wasn't brainwashed. I am not subjected to its harsh rules and its implementation from the authorities. I am not living my day-to-day life listening to or watching propaganda from the radio or the television, respectively. To those who went through all this, however, he/she might be more than willing to kill or be killed.

If this movement will be massive, then it might indeed affect the country's economy in one way or another.

The reality is a little different:
1. 300,000 disposable Russians, this is the first wave, not the most successful mobilization of the second army in the world
2. If the old Kremlin asshole does not return to a more or less adequate state (for example, it dies), there will be only 4 waves, with a total number of 1,200,000 bodies driven to the slaughter.
3. That tacit agreement with which they go to death, meaningless, suggests that in the life of these bipeds there is nothing more or less valuable
It will not hurt the economy - how can you hurt a dying economy.
4. Russians leaving for other countries will receive the status of guest workers, will work at the cheapest job, and send their relatives to Russia 100-150 dollars of income per month

Do you want videos of drunk Russian minorites being mobilized or rusty AK's and why would Wagner even use criminals to bolster their numbers if they aren't lacking the manpower?

Any general would not risk young men to just give them riffles, train them for about 2 weeks and then put them on the frontline. That would be a suicide which is not logical for a Russian general to do that.

The conscription is for people who had been trained in military services before and are put into different departments like for Fire Department or Disaster Rescue Department. They are probably reporting to the military once a month, they are not civilians. If civilians are fleeing, they'd be putting themselves in danger. Not all countries, welcome refugees with hospitality.
 

I see, I guess you are still wearing your blinder.

Yes, Its not overblown that Russian Youtubers are not fleeing your country and all of the videos by shared by multiple Russian people are a hoax. Also the amount of trolls on reddit was significantly reduced when the mobilization was announced.


Are you still relying on your media to discern why Putin is mobilizing citizens?

The border with Kazahstan is twice as long as the one between USA and Mexico, not to mention the one in Mongolia which is roughly the same, a few hundred dollars and every border patrol will let you off with cheers!
People have managed to fled the USSR, this will be a piece of cake.


Because up til now you've believed Putin's number about only one guy who was terminally ill dying in Ukraine when the numbers are in the tens of thousands? What happened to the regular army, the highly trained one that was supposed to attack when Ukraine's military was spent, sleeping on Moskva?


Yeah, working in Russia, getting paid from Russia but, what a surprise spending all their money in the country, let's multiply a simple sum of 1500$ a month by 300k who have left only this wave and you've got 5 billion$, money that was supposed to come back in the economy and fuel growth, instead you have money coming out and helping the former friendly states who are now laughing and spitting on the former wanna be a global power. But everything is going great there, once you capture that borsch that Ukraine didn't want to share with you everything will be even better.


Not when you're required to bring everything from socks to bullet proofs vest and tampons instead of bandages from home. 


Yeah, I bet all those people dying from hunger in Africa are far better off since they don't have any debt while the ones with a 20 years mortgage on a 10 million suite in Manhattan are living a nightmare. Congo has a 17% debt to GDP ratio, I might be wrong but is that a country you would want to settle in? 

Who wouldn't run away to avoid conscription when you're the invading army? It's different when you're defending your home (thinking of Britain for example, high rate of voluntary show) but I think every country's who'd had to forcibly recruit (or conscript if we want) will always face runaways. Well documented in the 1970s at least I know of, probably more so today in a fluid age of globalisation.

Defending your home, it's seldom even an option if you've got family to protect. And Bitcoin wallets to preserve haha.

We're fortunate if we don't have that choice to make.

The news that is now showing hundreds of Russian guys fleeing their country to avoid mobilization is overblown. Although I am aware that many young men have arrived in my country in recent days, this is a negligible proportion. Polls show that these are people who are engaged in IT technologies, and just by staying in another country, they will not change anything for themselves. While working remotely, they still continue to work in Russia. 
Among other things, Russia should have the composition of its army, and, frankly, I don’t understand why civilians are mobilized when the number of military and trained people is huge. 
As for the impact on the economy, I doubt that those who leave will be able to influence it in any way.

I am sure that it will. How? First, the army will consume a lot of resources (and the army is huge).
Second, the conscription will hurt the economy since it will take away a lot of people who are needed.
Third, the conscription will hurt a lot of families who will have to change their economic activities and will have to support the conscripts.
Fourth, it will cause a lot of economic disruptions since a lot of people will be displaced.
And fifth, the conscription will hurt the morale of the people who will see their sons, brothers and friends going to die in a war that they don't support.


As for me, I will obviously flee. No doubt. Only idiots die in wars lol

The Russian economy is in ruins already right now, they managed to keep the illusion going for the first 6 months - before Putin was finally so stupid as to turn off the oil and gas taps to Europe for the last time. Even in the whole of the Soviet union and the Iron Curtain the Russian government saw how valuable an income source it created. In just the last two days the Russian stock exchange has collapsed further than ever before and remember that is happening when foreign nationals are not allowed to sell stocks, so it's all locals cashing their stocks out. Almost all foreign businesses which brought vitality to the Russian markets have pulled out and getting hold of vital components will become ever harder. Frankly the conscription will be the only reliable job left in Russia very soon, that is how stupid their government have let them down for a petty war.

If a global recession sets in, no one will have economic statistics worth being proud of. Perhaps a better question may be what america, the EU and other nations of the world do to prepare for negative economic effects. There isn't much point in celebrating the alleged demise of russia's economy when the economy of our own nation could soon suffer a similar fate. Russia's national debt being around 20% of GDP could place it in a better position to weather economic disruptions in contrast to other nation's of the world.

I saw a source which claimed russia's military invaded ukraine despite lacking radio encryption. This is the type of factoid the media could publicize more. If their goal were to make Putin and the russian military appear incompetent or weak. Overall wartime danger for conscripts is not very high at the moment, I think. The ukraine coalition appears to have success based around deployment of HIMARs which primarily targets russian military leadership and supplies. Its not the average russian soldier who is being targeted the most. Life expectancy for russian conscripts could be much better than it is for high ranking officers.

While the "what would you do, if you were a russian conscript" portion of OP's post might appear hypothetical. It is possible that the united states could launch a full offensive on russia once the 2022 elections are over. Of which conscription or a draft could play a major role.

I honestly don't know what I would do if conscripted/drafted. Being a frontline soldier isn't the only option. Militaries of the world have 2x to 3x or greater support personnel for every available soldier. Statistically there is a chance conscripts could wind up being refrigerator repairmen. Or land in a support role. Having some type of technical or mechanical ability could make conscripts better suited to office work than wielding an AK-47.

The best course of action might be to lookup which support roles are most needed to support front line troops. Take courses to develop a skillbase in that area. That way if you are conscripted you'll have a decent chance of qualifying for a support staff role, rather than front line combat.

Being fully honest I would probably run away if I would get drafted to join the military during a full scale war. First of all, I have 0 military training and never really shoot a rifle. In my country military training is not mandatory anymore and the military doesn't have a high social standing. The second motivation would be that the news out of Ukraine are very bad for Russia, the front line is collapsing and the chances of winning are very small. Why risk your life in a doomed war? The third problem for me is that it seems there is only 2 weeks of military training before being developed to the front line. That's not enough to get effective soldiers who will be able to fight veteran Ukrainian troops.
The effect on the Russian economy will be devastating. I read on the weekend that already 250,000 young Russian man left the country. Together with all the people that are being drafted there will be a lot of people missing from workforce which is going to reduce the economy even further.

I don't know where you get your information from, but China has very good relations with Russia, and we should also mention Iran and India, which in most things behaves as if there is no war. In addition, at least 25% of the countries in the world are in some kind of neutral mode with Russia, so if we add it all up, it is a market of several billion people who would come to work for the right price if necessary.

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Just as sanctions do not have a direct effect on the Russian economy, nor is the departure of people something that will break the economy in a month or two. However, somehow I do not believe that Putler will allow mass emigration, the borders can be closed at any moment, war can be officially declared and everyone who tries to escape will be treated as deserters. Today I read what the President of Belarus said about this while consoling his colleague from Moscow, and that is that it might be good for some people to leave, because what is the use of them if they do not want to be loyal servants of the regime.

Although the situation is not identical, I can somewhat draw a parallel with what has been happening in my country in the past 10 years, which is the loss of over 400 000 people (about 10% of the total population), which is not a problem for the ruling politicians, because not only they have reduced unemployment, but they have already gotten rid of the critical mass that was a possible trigger for changes in the country.