Topic: The economic effect of people flying from RF mandatory conscription - page 2. (Read 989 times)

Ukraine did not ask other countries for help in the war against Russia by military personnel of other states. Ukrainians are still capable of resisting the horde from Russia on their own, but they are counting on the help of the civilized world with military equipment and financial support. The Russian regular army that entered Ukraine was almost completely destroyed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Mobilization in Russia will not significantly solve anything in the age of high technologies and high-precision weapons, which are now successfully mastered in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russian mobilization of poorly trained and equipped people will create more problems for Russia itself, which can already be seen after the massive wave of mobilization since September 21st.

Population of Russia is around 145 million. There maybe another 5+ million within the territories of Ukraine which were annexed by Russia. Ukraine is now having around 35 million citizens (after subtracting the 5+ million who are in annexed regions), and out of that around 10 million are living as refugees outside that country. If Ukraine doesn't receive support in the form of manpower from NATO and other allies, then in the long term it gets difficult for them to put up strong resistance against the Russians.

I'm impressed to read so many war game analytics! But how about thread following? Which is, remind me, Economy / Economics alright? Trading exchanges in Russia are under some kind of spell or something? Their trading sessions are showing some fantasy figures. This should and will affect most economy dependent population in the EU. It might involve US as well. Should we get back to the topic. Of course I foresee replies from "most experienced" wartime experts but, for sake of Bitcointalk! Focus!   

To compare the periods of mobilizations, it is also necessary to take into account a number of other factors. First of all, that Russia attacked Ukraine, and not vice versa, throwing an invading army of almost 300,000 people at it. Usually the attacking side is counting on its regular army, and not on additional mobilization of the civilian population after this army is defeated. And for a country that has been suddenly attacked by large enemy forces, it is quite natural and logical to mobilize as necessary to repel such an attack. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the population of these countries: in Russia there are about 240 million people, and in Ukraine a little more than 40 million.
In addition, covert mobilization in Russia was carried out even before the official announcement of its implementation, and I am absolutely sure that it will continue in the future.

I appreciate your concern for my life, but please don't project your own fears onto me. Moreover, partial mobilization in Russia ended yesterday, while general mobilization in Ukraine continues as before.

 

Fear, fear is eating you from the inside Nothing, considering your previous "brave statements", by the new year you will have a chance to prove not in word, but in deed how you will heroically defeat "NATO and Bandera"

Of course, you don’t know anyone who was mobilized, they don’t call anyone, the bald-headed terrorist didn’t announce any mobilization, and you didn’t hide anywhere from the summons to the draft board! So everything is there, in the heroic reality of a typical Russian

And they bury in all the cities of Russia - probably ... no one, just like that, for fun And they howl and snot - they are not called "mobiles" dressed in rags, and they are not told that they should buy women's pads and tampons for themselves in case their injuries

Lies and denial of reality, more precisely, total lies and total denial of reality - this is precisely the main "defense mechanism" of Russians, who perfectly understands what is happening and what is its "price", but tries to inspire himself, and deceive himself ... well, what still remains weak-willed and powerless residents of Russia?

At the same time, the Russians do not turn on the brain, and do not see that "a short, 2-3 week, victorious operation to denify Ukraine" has been going on for 9 months! Russia has lost the most important battles, lost vast territories previously captured by Russian terrorist troops, the army of Russian terrorists is suffering huge losses in modern history! And now that very "second army in the world" is forced to collect all sorts of rabble for mobilization, and also to try to revive the tanks of the 60s of the last century ... Because it's scary. Cowardice is another trait of international terrorists!

PS Yes, subscriptions give income, and all this goes to the penny to help ZSU, to destroy world terrorists and their one-time "soldafons" Yes, we are raising money to help our army, which protects our independence and freedom from Russian terrorism ... Oh yes, I'm sorry that I write words you don't understand - "freedom" and "independence"
So the crypt goes to the cause of destroying the brown plague of the 21st century!

PS If you go in our direction "defeat us" - write in private, I'll throw off my phone number, maybe you can save your life! 

You're right.  

Theoretically, a war could also break out in the south, which would affect the territory of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.  This war can be started by the Taliban.  On the other hand, China is likely to be able to protect these countries (especially Kazakhstan).  The countries of middle (or otherwise central) Asia are currently under the patronage of China.  

There are other risks for emigrants (conflicts with local residents, interethnic conflicts, etc.).  

At the same time, what is happening in Russia is monstrous.  And I'm not sure that Russia will be a safe place for people in the next 10 years.  Too much evil and aggression.  I try to reason with my compatriots, but many are acting like crazy.  Perhaps those people who left Russia made the right choice and everything will be fine with them over time.  I dont know.  

Perhaps Kazakhstan will become a leader among other countries of the former CIS, and Georgia will become a mecca for IT companies.  This is a possible option.

Partial mobilization will have a very negative impact on the Russian economy.  In addition to the men mobilized to the front, a huge number of educated and sought-after specialists (men of working age) left the country.  In addition, many have left their official jobs (at work they hand out subpoenas from the military commissariat) and are hiding.  Their wives and mothers are in a state of terrible stress and are also unable to work effectively.  Even those people who are relatively safe cannot focus on work, as they begin to realize that their future has been stolen from them.

I did not hide anywhere, just unlike you, I have no obligations regarding the number and frequency of writing messages on this forum.

You are trying in vain to exaggerate the scale of partial mobilization in Russia. Personally, I do not know anyone who was mobilized after September 21 this year. In total, about 150 people (and some of them volunteers) were mobilized from my city with a population of about 50 thousand inhabitants.

1. By the new year, you will receive an agenda, you will realize your dreams
2. We ourselves allocate land to you ... A little, somewhere 1mx2m, in the fields. The fertilizer from your soldiers is excellent! Thank you for this!



GDP of course sank a lot. It's stupid to argue. There is a total terrorist attack on Ukraine by Russia. It's stupid to deny. But you do not see the meaning of the word "bankrupt". It's like in Russia it was in 1998 - it's bankrupt, and default on foreign debts. example. And Ukraine fulfills its obligations, plus, the countries are real friends, and not "fraternal people" terrorists, given the situation, have simplified the requirements and, moreover, financially help. So what about Ukraine - Bankorot, these are your fantasies, regular ones

The black spot is just "Zimbabwe with snow" - I hope you understand who it is about And the fact that terrorists from Russia terrorize the civilian population, bombing peaceful cities, civilian infrastructure, totally losing the war - nothing, we will restore everything, slightly reduce consumption. The main thing is that the country of the terrorist should be destroyed, which, in general, is the point


PS So where did you hide from the agenda for a week?

I did not receive a summons for mobilization, because I did not serve in the army. During the military age period, I first studied at the university, and then worked at the enterprise of the military industrial complex, which provided armor from the army for its employees. However, I am quite healthy, in good physical shape, I have a hunting license and practical shooting skills - so I can go to the front as a volunteer (and maybe I will do it in the spring so as not to freeze my ass in the trenches in winter). For now, this is not necessary. As an experienced bounty hunter, I am waiting for Putin to sign a decree on the allocation of a hectare of land near Odessa to the participants in the special operation.

Ukraine's GDP has already fallen by 30%, the Central Bank of Ukraine recently kept the key rate at 25%, from an economic point of view, Ukraine is bankrupt and completely dependent on funding from the US and the EU. After a week of attacks on TPP transformers, Ukraine stopped exporting electricity to the EU and switched to an energy-saving mode with rolling blackouts throughout the country. In nighttime satellite images, Ukraine is already a black spot on the continent. Keep pretending everything is fine.

I already began to worry about you, I thought where I had disappeared - in the outback you are hiding from the agenda "to defend your homeland and rubber ass", or you have already been sent to slaughter after handing the summons! And you're back Hiding from the agenda? Nothing - December - January will fix that

About the bankrupt country - this is very exciting, tell me a new topic from the old training manual?
I’ll also throw in a well-worn Temko - “Ukraine will freeze in winter without Russian gas” - I listen to this topic in a warm apartment, every November / December! Already 10 years
Well, I’m not distracted - let’s talk about bankrupt Ukraine, and the powerful economy of terrorists ... oh, Russia

You have strange ideas about a better life. Ukraine is a bankrupt country, unable to exist without continuous external financing, in your opinion is this the better life?

The problem for Russian citizens is that Putin's crime family has been ruling there for decades and the Russians are incapable of overthrowing it. They lack cohesion and readiness for self-sacrifice in order for the rest to have a better life. What is missing is exactly what was demonstrated in Ukraine during the expulsion of the criminal regime of Yanukovych in 2013. Moreover, the majority of Russian citizens even support the current attack on Ukraine and rocket attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities. For this they will have to pay for many of their subsequent generations. Leaving the country is not an option. Need to change Russia through democratic reforms. This will still remain an internal problem of the Russians and only they will have to solve it.

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia and other countries that have allowed migrant workers from Russia to visit them can turn this to their advantage and correct the current situation!
The most intelligent and hardworking Russian guest workers (this is of course a small percentage, but there are some) - can do the rough work, janitors, loaders, taxi drivers, etc. low-paid but necessary vacancies will be closed.
And the rest - they can be sold back to Russia for example for 100-200 dollars! More than a million escaped "heroes of Russia" will bring to your economy many millions of stable currency, help solve the problem in the rental market, and other problems that guest workers from Russia brought to your countries!

If you are an employee, then this is a problem. If you have your own business, then you can re-register for a loved one, for example, mom or dad.
A lot of people are leaving for other countries, but they do not take into account your moment about what the situation will be in these countries in the next 2 years. Americans know how to make orange revolutions, and life in any small country can get even worse, and there will be nowhere to run, because the money will run out.

In theory, you are right, subpoenas from the military registration and enlistment office can only be served at the place of registration of citizens. In practice, summons for mobilization are usually handed over to the personnel department of the enterprise at the place of work of the person liable for military service in the reserve.

I don't understand why kill in other countries where you will be a disenfranchised person. Already in Kazakhstan, apartment rent has increased several times, which is much higher than wages. In Turkey, Georgia, Uzbekistan, the same thing, the prices for renting real estate are growing. In Russia, it is enough not to live at the official place of registration or to buy a destroyed house in the village and register there, but to live elsewhere.

Of course I will do everything that is within my power to flee from a country in which a government is trying to make me fight in a war, and just as you mention at Russia the people that are against the war do not have a lot of options to show their discontent with the government, so the best way to do this is by showing that you are not willing to go to war and be killed, and the only realistic way to do this is by fleeing from Russia, obviously this is not an easy decision to take because those which were born there will have to leave their loved ones behind, but when your life is at risk you do not really have too much of a choice.

No one argues that there will be big problems in the economy in Russia, because a lot of specialists are leaving. But there will be even more problems in Europe, because Europeans do not want to live like in Russia, and access to cheap resources is closed.
I am sure that this military conflict will not end quickly, so it will be bad both in Russia and in Europe. But in the USA everything will be fine.

Op says we should take 300,000 with a pinch of salt, but I'd actually say we should take the conscription very seriously and assume that the data suggested by some that the goal is to mobilize around a million people might be very real. Many Russians are fleeing the country to avoid conscription, and some will avoid it by other means like not having an official job and living not at an official place of residence, bribes etc. But the majority will calmly agree to get mobilized, so whatever the goal is in terms of the number of people to throw into the war, it's likely to be reached.
There are also barely any protests (excluding Dagestan, which shouldn't be equated to Russia because it's a separate nation which basically lost a war and was forced to be a part of Russia), considering the population of the country.
Russian economy, unfortunately, is stronger than many assumed. Partly it's thanks to good management (surprisingly, but true, given how they stabilized ruble despite the odds), partly thanks to "neutral" China and India, as well as some European countries paying still tons of money (billions monthly) for Russian energy sources. So, while many people will be hit, businesses will struggle and things will get worse, I don't think Russia is on a verge of economic collapse, and the exodus of males won't crumble it.
I do believe that long-term the issues can become very serious for Russia. But not in the upcoming months, not economically. Also, the world would truly have to commit to stop giving Russia billions of dollars for meaningful change to happen.