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Well, I've been expecting it within the next couple years for a decade already, and recent events make me wonder if we have more than a couple months. But again, we never know in advance what the 'last straw' will be. For the Brazilians, it was a 10 cent bus fare hike; for the founders of the United States, it was a 3 pence per pound tax on tea. When a society is being attacked with a thousand cuts, it's hard to tell when you hit that last one.
Well, I've been expecting it within the next couple years for a decade already, and recent events make me wonder if we have more than a couple months. But again, we never know in advance what the 'last straw' will be. For the Brazilians, it was a 10 cent bus fare hike; for the founders of the United States, it was a 3 pence per pound tax on tea. When a society is being attacked with a thousand cuts, it's hard to tell when you hit that last one.
The pebbles have been rolling for a long time, I think the shift in US markets at the end of the week was a boulder tumbling though and it could be the one that sets off the whole avalanche. Kind of ironic if it does, it happened after Bernanke hinted the fed might slow down on the money printing.
No, no; this wasn't it. If there is nothing else I'm sure of, it's that the FedReserve will not do anything that will end the game early. They know the con at least as well as outsiders, and they are dependent upon it's continuance. They will do and say anything they can to fix it, even if that means completely backtracking on prior statements and actions. If the trigger is monetary in nature, it can only be because Congress did something to deliberately disrupt the Fed's power, and I think too many of them know the score to consider such an action either. Whatever the trigger is, it won't be directly due to monetary policy of the US. Much more likely is that the trigger be related to the monetary policy of Japan or China, either of them could break the US Treasury now, it's just not been in their interests. The Failure-to-deliver chart for US treasury bonds has tripled in the past three weeks. The last time that has happened, Leaman Brothers was hung out to dry. And that distraction barely worked the first time.
