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Topic: The end is near - page 8. (Read 17362 times)

legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1010
June 26, 2013, 11:36:14 PM
#95
But who's going to scoop up the salt and put it back in the Pacific?  Or do we want to desalinate the oceans too?

This has now become an interesting conversation!

What about making a huge direct solar desalination plant at the output of the drainage - Then we don't mess with the humidity of the region or effect weather at all... and could pipe clean water somewhere...



Like Los Vegas? Nah, they don't really need drinking water that bad.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1010
June 26, 2013, 11:35:04 PM
#94
But who's going to scoop up the salt and put it back in the Pacific?  Or do we want to desalinate the oceans too?

Who cares?  How do you think the salt flats got that way to begin with?  It was once much like the Dead Sea.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
June 26, 2013, 11:30:31 PM
#93
But who's going to scoop up the salt and put it back in the Pacific?  Or do we want to desalinate the oceans too?

This has now become an interesting conversation!

What about making a huge direct solar desalination plant at the output of the drainage - Then we don't mess with the humidity of the region or effect weather at all... and could pipe clean water somewhere...

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
June 26, 2013, 08:54:53 PM
#92
For that matter, one solution is to build caissons on the ocean floor and use power during the day to pump water out and air in to these giant caissons. When you later need that power back out, you start letting water in which pumps air out at very high pressure, driving a generator. Voila, constant power as needed.

Another solution would be to build huge culverts to funnel the Pacific Ocean from San Diego to the Salt Flats, which happens to be about 200' below sea level and was an inland sea itself that finally dried up a few thousand years ago.  A few water turbines near the Salt Flats, and with the evaporation rate of the area, easily 100 Megawatts or more for as long as we like.  More, if we decide that an inland sea would be a good thing to have there.  It would alter the immediate environment, increasing humidity, cloud cover, and rainfall for several hundred miles around.

Not that the NIMBY crowd would let something like that happen either.
Yeah, that's the main issue there. You can also do that with large bays that have a narrow inlet.

You're talking about tidal power generation, I'm not here.  Still, tidal generation is an excellent example of what I'm talking about.  The few naturally occurring ideal places to put a tidal generator are all owned by people who don't want you to touch their ocean view.  They don't want you blocking their yachts from entering or exiting the bay either.  And the environmentalists don't want you to alter the shape of other coastlines, even if the benefits could possiblely outweight the massive costs of construction work on any foreseeable timescale.

What I was taliking about was literally a controlled drain of the PAcific Ocean into the saltflats.  No dependency on weather patterns or the orbit of the moon.  24/7 power generation so long as the output water was at or lower than the average evaporation rate of Death VAlley, which is considerable.  Power forever, literally, so long as the pipes and gensets are maintained; in the same sense that most hydroelectric plants are power forever, so long as they are not damaged and the run of the river remains the same.  Difference only in which direction is the source and sink.  Again, it will never happen.  NIMBY all but garrantees that large scale geoengineering projects are imposssible, no matter the cost/benefit analysis of it all.

But who's going to scoop up the salt and put it back in the Pacific?  Or do we want to desalinate the oceans too?
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1010
June 26, 2013, 08:48:50 PM
#91
For that matter, one solution is to build caissons on the ocean floor and use power during the day to pump water out and air in to these giant caissons. When you later need that power back out, you start letting water in which pumps air out at very high pressure, driving a generator. Voila, constant power as needed.

Another solution would be to build huge culverts to funnel the Pacific Ocean from San Diego to the Salt Flats, which happens to be about 200' below sea level and was an inland sea itself that finally dried up a few thousand years ago.  A few water turbines near the Salt Flats, and with the evaporation rate of the area, easily 100 Megawatts or more for as long as we like.  More, if we decide that an inland sea would be a good thing to have there.  It would alter the immediate environment, increasing humidity, cloud cover, and rainfall for several hundred miles around.

Not that the NIMBY crowd would let something like that happen either.
Yeah, that's the main issue there. You can also do that with large bays that have a narrow inlet.

You're talking about tidal power generation, I'm not here.  Still, tidal generation is an excellent example of what I'm talking about.  The few naturally occurring ideal places to put a tidal generator are all owned by people who don't want you to touch their ocean view.  They don't want you blocking their yachts from entering or exiting the bay either.  And the environmentalists don't want you to alter the shape of other coastlines, even if the benefits could possiblely outweight the massive costs of construction work on any foreseeable timescale.

What I was taliking about was literally a controlled drain of the PAcific Ocean into the saltflats.  No dependency on weather patterns or the orbit of the moon.  24/7 power generation so long as the output water was at or lower than the average evaporation rate of Death VAlley, which is considerable.  Power forever, literally, so long as the pipes and gensets are maintained; in the same sense that most hydroelectric plants are power forever, so long as they are not damaged and the run of the river remains the same.  Difference only in which direction is the source and sink.  Again, it will never happen.  NIMBY all but garrantees that large scale geoengineering projects are imposssible, no matter the cost/benefit analysis of it all.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
June 26, 2013, 08:14:54 PM
#90
You have a strange conception of the state's role in production.

To be more exact, you're conflating property and rights protection (law and police) and dispute resolution (courts) with the state.

But you don't need the state to provide any of those things. Law can be crowd-source or agreement based, ie: polycentric-law. No societal entity needs to have a monopoly on law production, that's just the way things have been largely until now. There's no reason for it to stay that way, and an alternative may (and probably will) be far better.

Similarly, courts and police can be privately provided on the market and due to changed incentives of the market will probably be far better.

Stateless communities often also had no rights protection, law, or courts. But it's possible to create not a state nor a stateless community, but rather the ideal is a self-governed community, and by that I mean one where each individual rules himself and himself alone. Not a community which uses a collective body to govern the whole--no, I mean a community where each individual has sovereign control of himself and no one else. A truly individualist society. This has never existed because we never had the ideas explicit to try it until modern time.


You are a dreamer. This is science fiction, written by austrian aristocrats. I know these theories very well, and in my former life I was an Austrian as well, until I realised that it is ahistoric science fiction. Real stateless communities in the rain forests 'produce' about the same amount as they did 10'000 years ago.[/quote]
They don't have advanced specialization or any concept of capital investment. Of course they produce little to nothing. What relevance does that have, at all, to what I'm talking about here. Correlation is not causation. I'm not talking about a stateless society, I'm talking about a society where every-person is their own state, their own sovereign. It's a subtle difference but try to catch the rub. Stateless clans in rainforests typically operate in a form of savage socialism--not extreme political individualism such as I suggest. They are virtually opposite situations.

Governed, collectivist societies produce about hundred fold the amount which was generated only 100 years ago.
No, we've had governed, collectivist societies for literally thousands of years and they never produced what we have now. It was economic individualism that produced the modern world, not government action on society as you seem to suggest. Name a place more governed than ancient Egypt or China--these places didn't produce highly.

That's the difference, which the dreamers suppress.
Deny is a better term. I don't think you know your economic history.

As I explained in another thread already: Any society is by definition collectivist.
That's far too general a statement. A society is collectivist when it holds that the group must be put before the individual. A society is individualist when it holds that the individual's rights can stand against group desires.

A society is either or, it is not innately either. Rights protections are innately individualist, for instance.

The opposite of society and collectivism is the self-sufficient community.
False. You've stated one of the common misconceptions about anarchy. Anarchy is not against cooperation, it is against compulsory cooperation. Thus anarchy is not against division of labor and cooperation in terms of companies, it's against being forced to work with X and the like.

The rest of your quote is useless to respond to since it's predicated on this misunderstanding, so I'll ignore it.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
June 26, 2013, 07:57:29 PM
#89
For that matter, one solution is to build caissons on the ocean floor and use power during the day to pump water out and air in to these giant caissons. When you later need that power back out, you start letting water in which pumps air out at very high pressure, driving a generator. Voila, constant power as needed.

Another solution would be to build huge culverts to funnel the Pacific Ocean from San Diego to the Salt Flats, which happens to be about 200' below sea level and was an inland sea itself that finally dried up a few thousand years ago.  A few water turbines near the Salt Flats, and with the evaporation rate of the area, easily 100 Megawatts or more for as long as we like.  More, if we decide that an inland sea would be a good thing to have there.  It would alter the immediate environment, increasing humidity, cloud cover, and rainfall for several hundred miles around.

Not that the NIMBY crowd would let something like that happen either.
Yeah, that's the main issue there. You can also do that with large bays that have a narrow inlet.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
June 26, 2013, 07:52:58 PM
#88
My mom cursed me out for saying this, but my opinion is capitalism sucks a big one.
Nah, you're wrong on that score. Your mistake is to think that what you're seeing in the US is capitalism / a free market. It's not. You're seeing crony capitalism, ie: business allied with lawmakers for their own advantage. And yeah, it sucks, but don't blame capitalism, if anything blame government collusion with business. If you removed government there could be no cronyism, thus it's government, not capitalism, at fault here.

I don't think socialism is the way to go, but maybe it is best in a world where we are all lazy asses who like robots to do things for us.
Any such prosperity will be produced by a free market, not socialism.

legendary
Activity: 3066
Merit: 1147
The revolution will be monetized!
June 26, 2013, 03:49:47 PM
#87
We seem to have a problem deciding on how it will happen. But at least we can all agree that we have hopelessly screwed up the world.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
June 26, 2013, 03:42:46 PM
#86
It's certainly more than enough for a global economic breakdown, since the idea is to give the enginneers time to put the reactor and hot fuel rods into a longer term stable state.  For some designs (undamaged) this simply involves lowering a neutron shield that waits inside the reactor, and the heat level will slowly reduce to the point that additional water supply is no longer pressing.  For some designs this actually requires that some (all?) of the hot fuel be removed by very well trained operators and placed into open storage pools, with or without neutron shielding between the rods.  Most of the open storage pools are not designed to collect rainwater for level maintaince, but do you really think that should it become obvious, the engineers can't arrange such things for most or all of the power plants?
In the longer term we've got to stop encasing the fuel and fission products inside a flammable metal (zirconium) and surrounding them with a ready source of hydrogen (water). Commercial reactors and the waste they produce really are a disaster waiting to happen.

Switch to a liquid fuel design using stable fluoride salts as a medium and you get fuel and waste that requires higher temperatures than decay heat can produce to stay in liquid form. In the event of an accident the entire mass cools and freezes into an inert solid instead of catching on fire.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1010
June 26, 2013, 02:47:24 PM
#85
It will end as all civilised societies ended: with a collapse. I call it Tainter's Law. It ends by the diminishing return on additional investment in additional complexity. The difference to earlier collapses is the fact, that today 500 nuclear reactors will blow its nuclear inventory around the northern part of the planet as soon as nobody will cool them anymore.

This is a rediculous idea.  Again, nuclear power industry accidents across all of the history of the world do not exceed the amount of radioactive material that is launched into the atmostphere by the worlds coal plants in a single year, and we have been burning coal for almost 200 years, and seriously powering industry with it for over 100 years.  Modern nuke plants don't really 'blow', and even if 100 of them had leakage accidents similar to what happened in Japan (very, very unlikely) we still wouldn't exceed what humanity has already dosed our environment with over the past 100+ years.  That plant had a quadruple redundant emergency cooling system, which we now know isn't quite good enough for a 1:10K year tsumami wave.  It's certainly more than enough for a global economic breakdown, since the idea is to give the enginneers time to put the reactor and hot fuel rods into a longer term stable state.  For some designs (undamaged) this simply involves lowering a neutron shield that waits inside the reactor, and the heat level will slowly reduce to the point that additional water supply is no longer pressing.  For some designs this actually requires that some (all?) of the hot fuel be removed by very well trained operators and placed into open storage pools, with or without neutron shielding between the rods.  Most of the open storage pools are not designed to collect rainwater for level maintaince, but do you really think that should it become obvious, the engineers can't arrange such things for most or all of the power plants?

Furthermore, not all radiation, or radioactive materials, are equal risks.  There is a persistant background radiation in our lives that is completely natural, and it's certainly higher than a layman would assume.  All concrete is mildly radioactive for the same reason that all coal is mildly radioactive, because all rocks contain some trace amount of thorium.  It's just that common.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1010
June 26, 2013, 02:25:58 PM
#84
Recent post by Dmitry Orlov, highly relevent to this thread.

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2013/06/life-outside-mental-comfort-zone.html#more

EDIT:  A quote highly relevent to those who engage in this thread, perhaps myself included...

"the brain of the body politic seems to have had its corpus callosum severed (that's the crossbar switch between the two hemispheres of the brain that allows them to act as a unit). Each side thinks that it represents the whole even as the two sides have all but lost the ability to communicate with each other"
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
June 26, 2013, 12:42:50 PM
#83

Not voting is not saying you are happy with the status quo.  Quite the opposite, it's a refusal to give your consent.

IMO a spoiled vote does that more effectively.

The system has to die to be reborn.  It's doing that now.  Vote, don't vote, no matter.
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1004
June 26, 2013, 11:42:20 AM
#82
...
You are a dreamer. This is science fiction, written by austrian aristocrats. I know these theories very well, and in my former life I was an Austrian as well, until I realised that it is ahistoric science fiction. Real stateless communities in the rain forests 'produce' about the same amount as they did 10'000 years ago. Governed, collectivist societies produce about hundred fold the amount which was generated only 100 years ago. That's the difference, which the dreamers suppress.

The trouble is they also waste 99 times the amount. Mostly its to support a system that's become the victim of it's own success and had to invent new ways of wasting time and energy just to create employment. We're only in the equivalent of the steam age of robotics and automation, that productivity's going to go up another hundred fold and it will probably take less than 100 years. By that time the current system will be broken beyond repair, bureaucracy's already reached the point where its having to oppose and contradict its self to keep growing. God only knows what can replace it though, it's nice to think we can all be happy and free and hug trees all day but some greedy bastard will just end up with a monopoly on trees.

It will end as all civilised societies ended: with a collapse. I call it Tainter's Law. It ends by the diminishing return on additional investment in additional complexity. The difference to earlier collapses is the fact, that today 500 nuclear reactors will blow its nuclear inventory around the northern part of the planet as soon as nobody will cool them anymore.
full member
Activity: 199
Merit: 100
June 26, 2013, 09:23:13 AM
#81
I agree that these guys don't have a shot in hell.  That's why I've abstained from the last few elections.


You always have a responsibility to vote! Even here in Canada prominent community leaders take your attitude and it is sad.

Not voting is called voter apathy and says I'm happy with the status quo. You have a responsibility to spoil your vote.

In apartheid South Africa where the election districts were rigged whites were told by the passive liberal educators to spoil there vote as a form of protest. It wasn't untilled the apartheid government had overwhelming spoil voters did they hold a referendum, to compromise on principles and negotiate with terrorists.  

Not voting is not saying you are happy with the status quo.  Quite the opposite, it's a refusal to give your consent.
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1004
June 26, 2013, 04:42:08 AM
#80
Capitalism has been the driving mechanism for human society, progress and prosperity in modern history. It is this driving engine that is now about to fail completely.

Capitalism, as in free trade and voluntary interaction, is not going to fail. Much of the establishment of corporatist inefficiency will be in turmoil and the collateral damage for everyone may be severe, but eventually the natural order will recover better and stronger than before.


Yes, without the state, inefficiency will be eliminated. That means, that nearly nothing will be produced, as it was the case within stateless communities in the whole history of mankind. But that wasn't Capitalism. The austrian anarchocapitalists believe, that we will produce even more without the state. That's the greatest economic joke I ever heard.
You have a strange conception of the state's role in production.

To be more exact, you're conflating property and rights protection (law and police) and dispute resolution (courts) with the state.

But you don't need the state to provide any of those things. Law can be crowd-source or agreement based, ie: polycentric-law. No societal entity needs to have a monopoly on law production, that's just the way things have been largely until now. There's no reason for it to stay that way, and an alternative may (and probably will) be far better.

Similarly, courts and police can be privately provided on the market and due to changed incentives of the market will probably be far better.

Stateless communities often also had no rights protection, law, or courts. But it's possible to create not a state nor a stateless community, but rather the ideal is a self-governed community, and by that I mean one where each individual rules himself and himself alone. Not a community which uses a collective body to govern the whole--no, I mean a community where each individual has sovereign control of himself and no one else. A truly individualist society. This has never existed because we never had the ideas explicit to try it until modern time.


You are a dreamer. This is science fiction, written by austrian aristocrats. I know these theories very well, and in my former life I was an Austrian as well, until I realised that it is ahistoric science fiction. Real stateless communities in the rain forests 'produce' about the same amount as they did 10'000 years ago. Governed, collectivist societies produce about hundred fold the amount which was generated only 100 years ago. That's the difference, which the dreamers suppress. As I explained in another thread already: Any society is by definition collectivist. The opposite of society and collectivism is the self-sufficient community. A self-sufficient community is called self-sufficient, because they do not economically interact with strangers, aliens and foreigners.
But the hominidae can not live 'alone'. An 'individualist' life is possible within a collectivist, materialist society only. To live a non-collectivist life, the homines sapientes need the organisation of the non-patriarchal, anarchal, consanguineal community, which was organised non-monogamous, matrilineal (female choice), wherever it existed in the whole history of mankind, and which have been destroyed, slowly starting about 10'000 years ago, by organised violence of a complicity of priests and militarists, which is terrorising the planet until today.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1010
June 26, 2013, 01:30:12 AM
#79

The markets are not about to collapse.  Leaders are making poor decisions, and we pay for that through the erosion we see.  The erosion will continue.

Even places where things are truly bad (and there are many, Syria for example) have not collapsed.




I suppose that it really matter what one means by "collapse".  I'm of the opinion that markets can't collapse by their nature, they either grow or decline, but never cease.  Even the classic 'buggy whip' market never completely died after the invention of the "horseless carriage", as there are still niche markets such as hobby mini-horse carriage racing and the Amish/Anabaptists that require them for practical transportation.  The survivability of markets notwithstanding, your own personal economy could very well 'collapse' if one is not careful.  And there is some risk that it could collapse even if one is careful.  When the bovine fecal matter finally makes contact with the rotary cooling device, I doubt anyone west of The Hamptons is going to completely avoid it.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
June 25, 2013, 06:54:36 PM
#78
I want to warn you about all these gloom and doom predictions.

If you would have followed these doomsday preachers you would have missed out on the huge rise in the markets and you would have bought gold at its peak. There are still people saying "buy gold and run from the stock market". These people are screwing you over. Gold is going down to $1000.

I love Max Keiser's show, but don't follow his advice.

Yes, we are in dire straights. Yes the numbers are ALL bad. We are in for a volatile year. But this paper game goes on because no one can pull the plug. You panic - you are personally doomed.


"The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - This quote is probably the only useful think Keynes ever contributed. The fact is, I believe these people like Max Keiser are right about their predictions. It's just things take a long time to play out. The fact is, logically what is happening in the global economy is temporary in nature and cannot continue for ever. Logically, there is going to be a big crisis. Markets can remain irrational for a short period, but eventually mathematics rules.

I don't think it's going to be a 30 year wait before a big readjustment. I am betting strongly it's no more than 2 years.

I am not a doomsday preacher, but I do believe there is a big crisis on the horizon. I am positive we'll get over it, but I do believe it's going to be worse than anything experienced in modern history.

That's not the only contribution Keynes made, but politicized neo-Keynesians like to forget he said that you should tighten your belt and reduce debt during boom times.
sr. member
Activity: 260
Merit: 250
June 25, 2013, 06:44:39 PM
#77
I want to warn you about all these gloom and doom predictions.

If you would have followed these doomsday preachers you would have missed out on the huge rise in the markets and you would have bought gold at its peak. There are still people saying "buy gold and run from the stock market". These people are screwing you over. Gold is going down to $1000.

I love Max Keiser's show, but don't follow his advice.

Yes, we are in dire straights. Yes the numbers are ALL bad. We are in for a volatile year. But this paper game goes on because no one can pull the plug. You panic - you are personally doomed.


"The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - This quote is probably the only useful think Keynes ever contributed. The fact is, I believe these people like Max Keiser are right about their predictions. It's just things take a long time to play out. The fact is, logically what is happening in the global economy is temporary in nature and cannot continue for ever. Logically, there is going to be a big crisis. Markets can remain irrational for a short period, but eventually mathematics rules.

I don't think it's going to be a 30 year wait before a big readjustment. I am betting strongly it's no more than 2 years.

I am not a doomsday preacher, but I do believe there is a big crisis on the horizon. I am positive we'll get over it, but I do believe it's going to be worse than anything experienced in modern history.
newbie
Activity: 5
Merit: 0
June 25, 2013, 06:41:59 PM
#76
It looks like I'm in the minority here.

Things are messed-up and they always have been.  Human beings are running the show, ad that's messed-up by definition. 

The markets are not about to collapse.  Leaders are making poor decisions, and we pay for that through the erosion we see.  The erosion will continue.

Even places where things are truly bad (and there are many, Syria for example) have not collapsed.

If you live in a relatively safe part of the world you need to worry more about your individual collapse than the world around you.  The fear of the outside is always greater than the reality.  And the fear on the inside (self) is never high enough.

Here in the USA you see doomsday preppers stocking-up on food, guns, bug out shelters.  They see the solution as having a year of food and guns.  Yet many are over-weight and in poor physical condition.  What they should really consider is that if society breaks down enough to require a year's worth of food, how will they physically and mentally survive the ordeal.  Their prep solution is to spend money on outside things instead of strengthening from the inside/

Any way, I am an optimist and see the future as far brighter than the past.  The good old days are always right now.


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