Topic: The Halving - Good or Bad for Bitcoin? - page 4. (Read 83082 times)
The halving that occur last year is slowly making bitcoin price gets higher and higher this must be effect of halving to bitcoin. Not an instant price going up but in a slowly and surely making its way to the new ath.
in another universe you could have bought 1 million bitcoins for a pizza while unicorns are flying through the sky...
you see that alternate reality?
i'm really asking myself too why we are discussing this LoL
you see that alternate reality?
i'm really asking myself too why we are discussing this LoL
We? No one forced you to join this discussion in the first place
To tell the truth, I knew it beforehand that you would stick like glue to that phrase about alternative reality. I also noted that you can't cope well with the subjunctive mood (used to explore imaginary or hypothetical situations, just in case), which I used quite a lot in this discussion, so it is no surprise that you can't analyze different possibilities and their long-term consequences. That seems to be the reason why you started to claim that the price today would have been the same as in November, 2012, if all bitcoins had been mined back then
What consequences when your speculation has no meaning and is based on unicorns?
It is based on assumptions and explores a hypothetical situation (what if) in respect to what price Bitcoin would have had now if all bitcoins had been mined by previous halvings, i.e. in November, 2012, and July, 2016. If you consider this analysis as pure speculation and the methodology used as based on unicorns, you should first explain why you yourself used the same technique. But don't tell me that it was only to show the erroneousness of this approach since the approach is perfectly robust for the assumptions accepted (i.e. all bitcoins had been mined)...
Basically, you you trying to make the best of a bad bargain as well as make it look as if you were right after all
You still dont realize if we take your method to extrapolate on the 12. november 2012 we would get a price of 6$ which is the exact same thing you did to get your 720$ which is wrong because we know how the price developed.
And that is exactly what i wanted to show and wrote.
And that is exactly what i wanted to show and wrote.
Yeah, if we just decided to estimate the price in November, 2012, with all bitcoins having been mined by then, we would get the price of 6$, but you in fact claimed that we would have had the same price of 6$ if we extrapolated it to today. This what you wrote exactly, and no back pedaling this will change that:
So take nov. 2012 price. Extrapolate to today 12$x10/21 <= 6$
If we correctly extrapolate this price to today taking into account all the demand that has built up since then (which is represented by today's price), we will get my values (i.e. over $700 when the price was ~$950 per coin). This is precisely what you are desperately trying to distract the attention from
duh, well of course because you did the same with your 720$ aka 3/4 of the current price. you disregarded the demand for the future 5 million coins too.
additionaly where the fuck are you right? we have more coins from day to day and the price is now at 1150$... 200$ more then 5 days ago.
my counter example is that you only need to use your method on a random date in the past to get a totaly wrong result (i.e. nov 2012 6$) - and you wont be able to talk yourself out of that.
like i said i missunderstood you on a minor part which was the reason for the "several orders of magnitude" because you were talking too much around the bush but that doesnt change on how the results are fundamentally wrong.
I think it's good, halving makes prices rise, in addition to limiting the stock. But unfortunately only happened 4 years halving once, if this happens each year to achieve a price of $10.000 could be faster. So make us rich.
offff couurse its good. if it is not, bitcoin would be worthless. who will give money for endless source?
Okay I get your point. Halving makes differrence of bitcoin and paper money. Although minner profit is decrease but the reall is the value is increase. So no disadvantage of halving. It something like that but we now experience the effect if halving and still we are in that late halving like last time few months latter
in another universe you could have bought 1 million bitcoins for a pizza while unicorns are flying through the sky...
you see that alternate reality?
i'm really asking myself too why we are discussing this LoL
you see that alternate reality?
i'm really asking myself too why we are discussing this LoL
We? No one forced you to join this discussion in the first place
To tell the truth, I knew it beforehand that you would stick like glue to that phrase about alternative reality. I also noted that you can't cope well with the subjunctive mood (used to explore imaginary or hypothetical situations, just in case), which I used quite a lot in this discussion, so it is no surprise that you can't analyze different possibilities and their long-term consequences. That seems to be the reason why you started to claim that the price today would have been the same as in November, 2012, if all bitcoins had been mined back then
What consequences when your speculation has no meaning and is based on unicorns?
It is based on assumptions and explores a hypothetical situation (what if) in respect to what price Bitcoin would have had now if all bitcoins had been mined by previous halvings, i.e. in November, 2012, and July, 2016. If you consider this analysis as pure speculation and the methodology used as based on unicorns, you should first explain why you yourself used the same technique. But don't tell me that it was only to show the erroneousness of this approach since the approach is perfectly robust for the assumptions accepted (i.e. all bitcoins had been mined)...
Basically, you you trying to make the best of a bad bargain as well as make it look as if you were right after all
You still dont realize if we take your method to extrapolate on the 12. november 2012 we would get a price of 6$ which is the exact same thing you did to get your 720$ which is wrong because we know how the price developed.
And that is exactly what i wanted to show and wrote.
And that is exactly what i wanted to show and wrote.
Yeah, if we just decided to estimate the price in November, 2012, with all bitcoins having been mined by then, we would get the price of 6$, but you in fact claimed that we would have had the same price of 6$ if we extrapolated it to today. This what you wrote exactly, and no back pedaling this will change that:
So take nov. 2012 price. Extrapolate to today 12$x10/21 <= 6$
If we correctly extrapolate this price to today taking into account all the demand that has built up since then (which is represented by today's price), we will get my values (i.e. over $700 when the price was ~$950 per coin). This is precisely what you are desperately trying to distract the attention from
It's an inherent part of the protocol. It doesn't matter what anyone thinks about it.
When Satoshi Nakamoto was in the design of the bitcoin system, in order to control the overall issue of bitcoin, set the production of half of bitcoin, which is a mandatory requirement, we should not think about.It's an inherent part of the protocol. It doesn't matter what anyone thinks about it.
When Satoshi Nakamoto was in the design of the bitcoin system, in order to control the overall issue of bitcoin, set the production of half of bitcoin, which is a mandatory requirement, we should not think about. 
offff couurse its good. if it is not, bitcoin would be worthless. who will give money for endless source?
Okay I get your point. Halving makes differrence of bitcoin and paper money. Although minner profit is decrease but the reall is the value is increase. So no disadvantage of halving. Looks like the halving is making its impact positive along the new bitcoin value, im very curious which will be the new value of bitcoin at 2020 when the other halving should occur at bitcoin. I do see the halving as something good, since it makes the price to double over time, recently it were every 4 years, soo its a 25% interest being achieved all year, no other investment can bring such potencial income.
Im sure that Bitcoin is have more demand in that year as result it can affect Bitcoin price.Bitcoin price is now booming is the affect of halving or not? Who knows.Maybe halving has something to do with this rapid price increase and I always looking at halving as a very good way of making the price of bitcoin reach higher amount as it is making the supply lesser. But whatever will be the effect of halving, there is just one thing that I will going to say, I will going to keep on using bitcoin.
I don't really think the recent price increase that lead to us finally reaching the $1000 level again has much to do with the halving. It has more to do with increased demand coming from Chinese investors and other wealthy individuals. Bitcoin is gaining popularity as store of wealth tool alongside gold. Bitcoin is much easier and safer to store as well. With Gold you're required to have a save where you store all your physical gold. Some people even store their gold in bank vaults....
That's why I'm also doubtful because of it. But since halving has past already maybe it should really have something to do because if there is none we will stay the floor price of bitcoin before halving happened. It limits the supply so basically when the supply is lesser, the demand is becoming higher and that's the reason of price increase.
Looks like the halving is making its impact positive along the new bitcoin value, im very curious which will be the new value of bitcoin at 2020 when the other halving should occur at bitcoin. I do see the halving as something good, since it makes the price to double over time, recently it were every 4 years, soo its a 25% interest being achieved all year, no other investment can bring such potencial income.
Im sure that Bitcoin is have more demand in that year as result it can affect Bitcoin price.Bitcoin price is now booming is the affect of halving or not? Who knows.Maybe halving has something to do with this rapid price increase and I always looking at halving as a very good way of making the price of bitcoin reach higher amount as it is making the supply lesser. But whatever will be the effect of halving, there is just one thing that I will going to say, I will going to keep on using bitcoin.
I don't really think the recent price increase that lead to us finally reaching the $1000 level again has much to do with the halving. It has more to do with increased demand coming from Chinese investors and other wealthy individuals. Bitcoin is gaining popularity as store of wealth tool alongside gold. Bitcoin is much easier and safer to store as well. With Gold you're required to have a save where you store all your physical gold. Some people even store their gold in bank vaults....
offff couurse its good. if it is not, bitcoin would be worthless. who will give money for endless source?
My calculated price was correct on the date of the estimate, i.e. when the price was 950 dollars per coin, just like your calculation was correct in November, 2012. But unlike you, I never pretended that it would be valid on any date following that day. Moreover, I specifically pointed it out that I can't include future demand since, obviously, I can't know what will happen in the future (tomorrow or in a year) and what this future demand will amount to. Today, I can give you a new price which already takes into account the change in demand which has happened since the last estimate. You, on the contrary, claimed that today, and every day after November, 2012, the price will remain the same. Are you now walking back on your words?
Duh. I never claimed that this is correct because my goal was to show that it is not correct.
And i suceeded with it because i could show that your calculations dont picture reality. It is still wrong (not on several magnitudes - there i agree that i misunderstood you) by a lot
In fact, I don't quite understand what you are arguing against
I think I made it perfectly clear that the estimates of what the Bitcoin price might have been if all bitcoins had been mined by the date to which these estimates referred can't possibly match reality just because not all bitcoins have been mined so far. It was only an assumption, an alternative reality, in a sense, but if you need an explanation for that, you may want to ask someone else. I'm not very interested in explaining to you all these things
in another universe you could have bought 1 million bitcoins for a pizza while unicorns are flying through the sky...
you see that alternate reality?
i'm really asking myself too why we are discussing this LoL
We? No one forced you to join this discussion in the first place
To tell the truth, I knew it beforehand that you would stick like glue to that phrase about alternative reality. I also noted that you can't cope well with the subjunctive mood (used to explore imaginary or hypothetical situations, just in case), which I used quite a lot in this discussion, so it is no surprise that you can't analyze different possibilities and their long-term consequences. That seems to be the reason why you started to claim that the price today would have been the same as in November, 2012, if all bitcoins had been mined back then
What consequences when your speculation has no meaning and is based on unicorns?
You still dont realize if we take your method to extrapolate on the 12. november 2012 we would get a price of 6$ which is the exact same thing you did to get your 720$ which is wrong because we know how the price developed.
And that is exactly what i wanted to show and wrote.
My calculated price was correct on the date of the estimate, i.e. when the price was 950 dollars per coin, just like your calculation was correct in November, 2012. But unlike you, I never pretended that it would be valid on any date following that day. Moreover, I specifically pointed it out that I can't include future demand since, obviously, I can't know what will happen in the future (tomorrow or in a year) and what this future demand will amount to. Today, I can give you a new price which already takes into account the change in demand which has happened since the last estimate. You, on the contrary, claimed that today, and every day after November, 2012, the price will remain the same. Are you now walking back on your words?
Duh. I never claimed that this is correct because my goal was to show that it is not correct.
And i suceeded with it because i could show that your calculations dont picture reality. It is still wrong (not on several magnitudes - there i agree that i misunderstood you) by a lot
In fact, I don't quite understand what you are arguing against
I think I made it perfectly clear that the estimates of what the Bitcoin price might have been if all bitcoins had been mined by the date to which these estimates referred can't possibly match reality just because not all bitcoins have been mined so far. It was only an assumption, an alternative reality, in a sense, but if you need an explanation for that, you may want to ask someone else. I'm not very interested in explaining to you all these things
in another universe you could have bought 1 million bitcoins for a pizza while unicorns are flying through the sky...
you see that alternate reality?
i'm really asking myself too why we are discussing this LoL
We? No one forced you to join this discussion in the first place
To tell the truth, I knew it beforehand that you would stick like glue to that phrase about alternative reality. I also noted that you can't cope well with the subjunctive mood (used to explore imaginary or hypothetical situations, just in case), which I used quite a lot in this discussion, so it is no surprise that you can't analyze different possibilities and their long-term consequences. That seems to be the reason why you started to claim that the price today would have been the same as in November, 2012, if all bitcoins had been mined back then
My calculated price was correct on the date of the estimate, i.e. when the price was 950 dollars per coin, just like your calculation was correct in November, 2012. But unlike you, I never pretended that it would be valid on any date following that day. Moreover, I specifically pointed it out that I can't include future demand since, obviously, I can't know what will happen in the future (tomorrow or in a year) and what this future demand will amount to. Today, I can give you a new price which already takes into account the change in demand which has happened since the last estimate. You, on the contrary, claimed that today, and every day after November, 2012, the price will remain the same. Are you now walking back on your words?
Duh. I never claimed that this is correct because my goal was to show that it is not correct.
And i suceeded with it because i could show that your calculations dont picture reality. It is still wrong (not on several magnitudes - there i agree that i misunderstood you) by a lot
In fact, I don't quite understand what you are arguing against
I think I made it perfectly clear that the estimates of what the Bitcoin price might have been if all bitcoins had been mined by the date to which these estimates referred can't possibly match reality just because not all bitcoins have been mined so far. It was only an assumption, an alternative reality, in a sense, but if you need an explanation for that, you may want to ask someone else. I'm not very interested in explaining to you all these things
in another universe you could have bought 1 million bitcoins for a pizza while unicorns are flying through the sky...
you see that alternate reality?
i'm really asking myself too why we are discussing this LoL
Looks like the halving is making its impact positive along the new bitcoin value, im very curious which will be the new value of bitcoin at 2020 when the other halving should occur at bitcoin. I do see the halving as something good, since it makes the price to double over time, recently it were every 4 years, soo its a 25% interest being achieved all year, no other investment can bring such potencial income.
Im sure that Bitcoin is have more demand in that year as result it can affect Bitcoin price.Bitcoin price is now booming is the affect of halving or not? Who knows. 
The halving will be good in most predictions but it can also unwraps itself as a real disaster a lot of people will get disappointed if the price will not rise at all.
The possibility is there so it could happen that the price will not rise and it can even collapse because of the bitcoin although I'm thinking its gonna rise of course.
Another thing is that miners will have some hard times for sure because mining is gonna be a lot more difficult.
As you said, the halving might be good for some but if the price does not go up it will be a big disappointment, it will make mining more difficult which will take out a lot of mining investments, and that will have a big influence on the price, it will make it go down, but who knows, it is something that could make or break bitcoin. The possibility is there so it could happen that the price will not rise and it can even collapse because of the bitcoin although I'm thinking its gonna rise of course.
Another thing is that miners will have some hard times for sure because mining is gonna be a lot more difficult.
Seeing the current price certainly a good half for bitcoin,did you see prices continue to rise after halving occur perhaps next halving bitcoin price may touch $ 2,000.
Looks like the halving is making its impact positive along the new bitcoin value, im very curious which will be the new value of bitcoin at 2020 when the other halving should occur at bitcoin. I do see the halving as something good, since it makes the price to double over time, recently it were every 4 years, soo its a 25% interest being achieved all year, no other investment can bring such potencial income.
My calculated price was correct on the date of the estimate, i.e. when the price was 950 dollars per coin, just like your calculation was correct in November, 2012. But unlike you, I never pretended that it would be valid on any date following that day. Moreover, I specifically pointed it out that I can't include future demand since, obviously, I can't know what will happen in the future (tomorrow or in a year) and what this future demand will amount to. Today, I can give you a new price which already takes into account the change in demand which has happened since the last estimate. You, on the contrary, claimed that today, and every day after November, 2012, the price will remain the same. Are you now walking back on your words?
Duh. I never claimed that this is correct because my goal was to show that it is not correct.
And i suceeded with it because i could show that your calculations dont picture reality. It is still wrong (not on several magnitudes - there i agree that i misunderstood you) by a lot
In fact, I don't quite understand what you are arguing against
I think I made it perfectly clear that the estimates of what the Bitcoin price might have been if all bitcoins had been mined by the date to which these estimates referred can't possibly match reality just because not all bitcoins have been mined so far. It was only an assumption, an alternative reality, in a sense, but if you need an explanation for that, you may want to ask someone else. I'm not very interested in explaining to you all these things
Quote
What you do is just extrapolating based on current price and maximum possible supply.
You did that to get your 720$.
I just exactly did that with the price on nov. 2012 to show you that it doesnt work.
In fact, you did a totally different thing
At first, you calculated how much Bitcoin would be worth in November, 2012, if all bitcoins had been mined by that time, using the same approach as I did (that's true), but then you basically started claiming that the price you thus obtained wouldn't change all these years since then till today. In this way, you have discarded all the demand that has accumulated through these years and brought the price to where it is now. As you yourself now confirm, that doesn't and couldn't possibly work. With this point specifically I fully agree
And you didnt disregard it? As far as i know there are still 5 million bitcoins to mine no?
I just did what you did and showed that it is wrong.
Yes, I disregarded future demand (should there be any) for the remaining 5 million bitcoins which are still there to mine because this demand exists in the future. I don't know how much it might be and whether it will be at all, that's why I estimated what the price might have been today against only 16M bitcoins which are already mined (the numerator in the 16/21 ratio). If I knew what the price would be in December, 2017, I would tell you what it would have been if we assumed that all bitcoins had been mined till then. You, on the other hand, just chose to ignore the already known demand for the time span since November, 2012, through December, 2016. And claimed that the price today would be the same as in that November (if all coins had been mined by then)...
Namely, several orders of magnitude lower than the Bitcoin price we actually see nowadays (~6 dollars per coin)
You disregarded future demand which is already shown as wrong because there is demand that is even higher then the supply since you posted your assumption (thus we are now at nearly 1000$ from 940$).
And like i said before i did exactly that to show your fallacy
I don't quite see where you are getting at
My calculated price was correct on the date of the estimate, i.e. when the price was 950 dollars per coin, just like your calculation was correct in November, 2012. But unlike you, I never pretended that it would be valid on any date following that day. Moreover, I specifically pointed it out that I can't include future demand since, obviously, I can't know what will happen in the future (tomorrow or in a year) and what this future demand will amount to. Today, I can give you a new price which already takes into account the change in demand which has happened since the last estimate. You, on the contrary, claimed that today, and every day after November, 2012, the price will remain the same. Are you now walking back on your words?
Duh. I never claimed that this is correct because my goal was to show that it is not correct.
And i suceeded with it because i could show that your calculations dont picture reality. It is still wrong (not on several magnitudes - there i agree that i misunderstood you) by a lot.
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