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Topic: The Halving - Good or Bad for Bitcoin? - page 5. (Read 83110 times)

legendary
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January 02, 2017, 03:43:58 AM
I don't see how this could be a negative thing for Bitcoin. In fact there is a debate about which would be better, an inflationary currency or a deflationary currency. In theory, it may be a bit difficult for some people to analyze, but in practice it is easy to realize that a deflationary currency only brings damage to an economy. On the other hand, Bitcoin is a currency that, in my opinion, has worked much more efficiently over the years.

Pools get less rewards for their work as halvings take place. The negative point lies in the fact that pools will rely on collecting fees to such a dramatic level in the future, that it's basically too expensive to use Bitcoin as a currency for shopping and stuff. If the price keeps going up alongside the constantly increasing difficulty, then it all this won't be so drastic at the beginning. But if the price is not going up nicely, then the fees will need to be upped in order to compensate for the work that pools need to do.

If the price won't rise, it just means that adoption has halted, and raising the fees may in fact be counterproductive and lead to an opposite effect, i.e. collecting even less fees since people may make less transactions with higher volume, or just transact less altogether. On the contrary, lowering the fees may actually increase their total due to larger quantity of microtransactions. Anyway, a radical solution would be to increase the block size significantly, so that one block could accommodate more transactions and thus make the fee total higher per every block found...

But this would evidently work only if adoption increases leading to more transactions processed per unit of time
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
January 01, 2017, 06:46:16 PM
I don't see how this could be a negative thing for Bitcoin. In fact there is a debate about which would be better, an inflationary currency or a deflationary currency. In theory, it may be a bit difficult for some people to analyze, but in practice it is easy to realize that a deflationary currency only brings damage to an economy. On the other hand, Bitcoin is a currency that, in my opinion, has worked much more efficiently over the years.

Pools get less rewards for their work as halvings take place. The negative point lies in the fact that pools will rely on collecting fees to such a dramatic level in the future, that it's basically too expensive to use Bitcoin as a currency for shopping and stuff. If the price keeps going up alongside the constantly increasing difficulty, then it all this won't be so drastic at the beginning. But if the price is not going up nicely, then the fees will need to be upped in order to compensate for the work that pools need to do.
These are interesting points to analyze. But I read somewhere that if large companies, such as amazon, decide to adopt Bitcoin, they would be willing to participate in the mining process, even at the high costs of mining, and even leading to losses in the mining process. The reason is that for such companies, the use of Bitcoin would bring financial benefits that would compensate the expenses with mining. But as you said, it is better that people recognize that the difficulty is increasing, and accept adjustments in the market, that is to say, increase in the price of Bitcoin.
And correcting what I said in my first post, the currency that would bring damage would be the inflationary currency, as is the case of the fiat currency.
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1091
January 01, 2017, 06:16:31 PM
I don't see how this could be a negative thing for Bitcoin. In fact there is a debate about which would be better, an inflationary currency or a deflationary currency. In theory, it may be a bit difficult for some people to analyze, but in practice it is easy to realize that a deflationary currency only brings damage to an economy. On the other hand, Bitcoin is a currency that, in my opinion, has worked much more efficiently over the years.

Pools get less rewards for their work as halvings take place. The negative point lies in the fact that pools will rely on collecting fees to such a dramatic level in the future, that it's basically too expensive to use Bitcoin as a currency for shopping and stuff. If the price keeps going up alongside the constantly increasing difficulty, then it all this won't be so drastic at the beginning. But if the price is not going up nicely, then the fees will need to be upped in order to compensate for the work that pools need to do.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
January 01, 2017, 06:09:25 PM
I don't see how this could be a negative thing for Bitcoin. In fact there is a debate about which would be better, an inflationary currency or a deflationary currency. In theory, it may be a bit difficult for some people to analyze, but in practice it is easy to realize that a inflationary currency only brings damage to an economy. On the other hand, Bitcoin is a currency that, in my opinion, has worked much more efficiently over the years.
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 500
January 01, 2017, 05:55:41 PM
The halving is good for those people which are investing into bitcoin, since they will make profit fast, but as we moove forward it will get harder to achieve 1 bitcoin as it will become more and more expensive. I would like to stand at the 300 dollars range and all coins mined on the next 10 years, but well the thing is the halving is one of the main rules that made bitcoin achieve bigger values, if we remove the halving we will get a coin with demand and supply like the others.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
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January 01, 2017, 01:04:07 PM
Quote
What you do is just extrapolating based on current price and maximum possible supply.

You did that to get your 720$.
I just exactly did that with the price on nov. 2012 to show you that it doesnt work.

In fact, you did a totally different thing

At first, you calculated how much Bitcoin would be worth in November, 2012, if all bitcoins had been mined by that time, using the same approach as I did (that's true), but then you basically started claiming that the price you thus obtained wouldn't change all these years since then till today. In this way, you have discarded all the demand that has accumulated through these years and brought the price to where it is now. As you yourself now confirm, that doesn't and couldn't possibly work. With this point specifically I fully agree

And you didnt disregard it? As far as i know there are still 5 million bitcoins to mine no?
I just did what you did and showed that it is wrong.

Yes, I disregarded future demand (should there be any) for the remaining 5 million bitcoins which are still there to mine because this demand exists in the future. I don't know how much it might be and whether it will be at all, that's why I estimated what the price might have been today against only 16M bitcoins which are already mined (the numerator in the 16/21 ratio). If I knew what the price would be in December, 2017, I would tell you what it would have been if we assumed that all bitcoins had been mined till then. You, on the other hand, just chose to ignore the already known demand for the time span since November, 2012, through December, 2016. And claimed that the price today would be the same as in that November (if all coins had been mined by then)...

Namely, several orders of magnitude lower than the Bitcoin price we actually see nowadays (~6 dollars per coin)

You disregarded future demand which is already shown as wrong because there is demand that is even higher then the supply since you posted your assumption (thus we are now at nearly 1000$ from 940$).

And like i said before i did exactly that to show your fallacy

I don't quite see where you are getting at

My calculated price was correct on the date of the estimate, i.e. when the price was 950 dollars per coin, just like your calculation was correct in November, 2012. But unlike you, I never pretended that it would be valid on any date following that day. Moreover, I specifically pointed it out that I can't include future demand since, obviously, I can't know what will happen in the future (tomorrow or in a year) and what this future demand will amount to. Today, I can give you a new price which already takes into account the change in demand which has happened since the last estimate. You, on the contrary, claimed that today, and every day after November, 2012, the price will remain the same. Are you now walking back on your words?
legendary
Activity: 2464
Merit: 1145
January 01, 2017, 12:55:10 PM
Quote
What you do is just extrapolating based on current price and maximum possible supply.

You did that to get your 720$.
I just exactly did that with the price on nov. 2012 to show you that it doesnt work.

In fact, you did a totally different thing

At first, you calculated how much Bitcoin would be worth in November, 2012, if all bitcoins had been mined by that time, using the same approach as I did (that's true), but then you basically started claiming that the price you thus obtained wouldn't change all these years since then till today. In this way, you have discarded all the demand that has accumulated through these years and brought the price to where it is now. As you yourself now confirm, that doesn't and couldn't possibly work. With this point specifically I fully agree

And you didnt disregard it? As far as i know there are still 5 million bitcoins to mine no?
I just did what you did and showed that it is wrong.

Yes, I disregarded future demand (should there be any) for the remaining 5 million bitcoins which are still there to mine because this demand exists in the future. I don't know how much it might be and whether it will be at all, that's why I estimated what the price might have been today against only 16M bitcoins which are already mined (the numerator in the 16/21 ratio). If I knew what the price would be in December, 2017, I would tell you what it would have been if we assumed that all bitcoins had been mined till then. You, on the other hand, just chose to ignore the already known demand for the time span since November, 2012, through December, 2016. And claimed that the price today would be the same as in that November (if all coins had been mined by then)...

Namely, several orders of magnitude lower than the Bitcoin price we actually see nowadays (~6 dollars per coin)

You disregarded future demand which is already shown as wrong because there is demand that is (much) higher then the supply since you posted your assumption (thus we are now at nearly 1000$ from 940$ or from 350$ at beginning of the year).

And like i said before i did exactly that to show your fallacy.

sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
January 01, 2017, 05:00:45 AM
Halving decreases the supply of bitcoins whereas there is no change in increase of demand for Bitcoins. So, it helps in increase in the price of bitcoins. But, due to decrease in supply, miners would suffer a lot. They will face a decrease in their income got from mining.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
January 01, 2017, 04:52:11 AM
Quote
What you do is just extrapolating based on current price and maximum possible supply.

You did that to get your 720$.
I just exactly did that with the price on nov. 2012 to show you that it doesnt work.

In fact, you did a totally different thing

At first, you calculated how much Bitcoin would be worth in November, 2012, if all bitcoins had been mined by that time, using the same approach as I did (that's true), but then you basically started claiming that the price you thus obtained wouldn't change all these years since then till today. In this way, you have discarded all the demand that has accumulated through these years and brought the price to where it is now. As you yourself now confirm, that doesn't and couldn't possibly work. With this point specifically I fully agree

And you didnt disregard it? As far as i know there are still 5 million bitcoins to mine no?
I just did what you did and showed that it is wrong.

Yes, I disregarded future demand (should there be any) for the remaining 5 million bitcoins which are still there to mine because this demand exists in the future. I don't know how much it might be and whether it will be at all, that's why I estimated what the price might have been today against only 16M bitcoins which are already mined (the numerator in the 16/21 ratio). If I knew what the price would be in December, 2017, I would tell you what it would have been if we assumed that all bitcoins had been mined till then. You, on the other hand, just chose to ignore the already known demand for the time span since November, 2012, through December, 2016. And claimed that the price today would be the same as in that November (if all coins had been mined by then)...

Namely, several orders of magnitude lower than the Bitcoin price we actually see nowadays (~6 dollars per coin)
legendary
Activity: 2464
Merit: 1145
December 31, 2016, 12:32:41 PM
Quote
What you do is just extrapolating based on current price and maximum possible supply.

You did that to get your 720$.
I just exactly did that with the price on nov. 2012 to show you that it doesnt work.

In fact, you did a totally different thing

At first, you calculated how much Bitcoin would be worth in November, 2012, if all bitcoins had been mined by that time, using the same approach as I did (that's true), but then you basically started claiming that the price you thus obtained wouldn't change all these years since then till today. In this way, you have discarded all the demand that has accumulated through these years and brought the price to where it is now. As you yourself now confirm, that doesn't and couldn't possibly work. With this point specifically I fully agree

And you didnt disregard it? As far as i know there are still 5 million bitcoins to mine no?
I just did what you did and showed that it is wrong.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
December 31, 2016, 11:58:59 AM
Quote
What you do is just extrapolating based on current price and maximum possible supply.

You did that to get your 720$.
I just exactly did that with the price on nov. 2012 to show you that it doesnt work.

In fact, you did a totally different thing

At first, you calculated how much Bitcoin would be worth in November, 2012, if all bitcoins had been mined by that time, using the same approach as I did (that's true), but then you basically started claiming that the price you thus obtained wouldn't change all these years since then till today. In this way, you have discarded all the demand that has accumulated through these years and brought the price to where it is now. As you yourself now confirm, that doesn't and couldn't possibly work. With this point specifically I fully agree
newbie
Activity: 13
Merit: 0
December 31, 2016, 11:09:49 AM
The halving is good for bitcoin and bitcoin holder but it's not very good for bitcoin miners.
However, This halving helps miners maintain their money rewards with higher price of bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1115
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December 31, 2016, 11:08:21 AM
Without the halving at bitcoin, and allowing all people to get the same reward of 50 bitcoin block, we would be with all coins mined and the possible value of bitcoin would be around 100-300 dollars, i doubt we would see bitcoin achieving bigger values, soo yes the halving does have a huge influence over bitcoin value.

this doesn't make any sense because it is not just about mining all the coins as fast as possible, it is more about reducing the speed of the inflation and let the miners be able to earn a nice reward as the adoption grows. if we mine it all and then want to rely on fees for mining reward miners will end up with nothing and bitcoin is not yet adopted so price is still low. but with this way (with halving) the process is slowed down and miners are still gaining good reward.

It's weird how excited people get over halvings as though it is an automatic guarantee of it being valuable profit wise.

Yes, people take an overly simplistic economic idea (Bitcoin has far more variables at play than simple supply and demand), and an extremely limited number of available data points that support the assumption, and that equates into indisputable proof that price could never fall after a halving. To be fair, this failure of logic isn't unique to Bitcoin. It permeates every corner of the Internet.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1115
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December 31, 2016, 11:01:50 AM
Eventually Bitcoin will halve to the point where fees will have to increase dramatically to offset the lost income from new coin fees. I can't see that being a good thing for the currency or adoption. A major advantage now is transaction fees relative to alternative methods of value transfer. If the transaction fees become unwieldy, Bitcoin could collapse.

It seems to me that this is a good process. This eliminates Bitcoin from devaluation and inflation. Yes, for the miners is bad. But do not forget that thanks to Bitcoin becomes more expensive

Halving contributed to price increases of coins (in theory), but it also increases the the transaction fee miners demand to offset new coin generation rewards. The increase in transaction cost decreases bitcoins viability as a payment medium, which over the long run will hurt the price.
legendary
Activity: 2464
Merit: 1145
December 31, 2016, 10:58:46 AM
I don't get your point

We have a starting price of 12 dollars in November, 2012, when the mining reward had been halved from 50 to 25 BTC. The price in July, 2016, at the next halving, was, according to you, 675 dollars per coin, with the rise being 675-12=663 dollars. We assume that the halving was cancelled in November, 2012, and the reward had been left intact (i.e. the same 50 BTC). Since we also assume that all things remain the same between these two dates (apart from the reward itself), the supply of coins would have been twice as much. Consequently, that allows us to assume that the price change within this time span would be half as much, i.e. 663/2=331.5 dollars. If we add this change to the starting price, we will get 343.5 dollars per coin in July, 2016

Your initial statement was that if every bitcoin was mined now the price would be three fourths of its current.

Yes, and I even gave you the rough estimate of the price which would have been today if the reward halving didn't happen, and all bitcoins would have been mined by July, 2016. Ironically, it turned out to be pretty close to the exact value of what three fourths of the current price are equal to, namely, 723 versus 712.5 dollars at 950 dollars per coin. Since all bitcoins would have been mined by July, 2016, it was also interesting to estimate the price which might have been by then too. In short, you basically have nothing of substance to challenge my estimates with. Empty verbiage obviously won't count...

Your approach to extrapolation is laughable if not outright ludicrous

Wow so because 16/21 is nearly 3/4 you think you are genius?
Good lord you are delusional the problem is you just dont realize it.

What you do is just extrapolating based on current price and maximum possible supply.
And the results dont mirror reality.

And when you take other price points the results differ even more from reality

Indeed, they can't mirror reality simply because we had two halvings in the past and still have plenty of years ahead till the last bitcoin is mined. And as I specifically emphasized it, there are a lot of ifs that would make the actual price differ from my estimates even if the reward hadn't been halved. But your estimates (6 dollars per coin) are totally off the reel as I already explained it to you. Simple common sense would suffice to understand that if we have already mined over 76% of all bitcoins, and the price is at 950 dollars right now, it can't possibly be in single digits if the remaining 24% had already been mined by now too...

You just can't throw out the window all that demand which has pushed the price so high


Quote
What you do is just extrapolating based on current price and maximum possible supply.

You did that to get your 720$.
I just exactly did that with the price on nov. 2012 to show you that it doesnt work.
full member
Activity: 137
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Free Just Ask
December 30, 2016, 08:05:18 PM
Well here is what I think
For buyers then the halving was bad to start as increased price making it coist more to buy but then when u serserll it it might be better
For sales then is was good ASD it increased price = profit
Miners well for then it is bad as it still cist the same to make but you only get half but if the price growns then if it will be good for them
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
December 30, 2016, 04:55:15 PM
The halving will be good in most predictions but it can also unwraps itself as a real disaster a lot of people will get disappointed if the price will not rise at all.
The possibility is there so it could happen that the price will not rise and it can even collapse because of the bitcoin although I'm thinking its gonna rise of course.
Another thing is that miners will have some hard times for sure because mining is gonna be a lot more difficult.
legendary
Activity: 3514
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December 30, 2016, 12:21:32 PM
I don't get your point

We have a starting price of 12 dollars in November, 2012, when the mining reward had been halved from 50 to 25 BTC. The price in July, 2016, at the next halving, was, according to you, 675 dollars per coin, with the rise being 675-12=663 dollars. We assume that the halving was cancelled in November, 2012, and the reward had been left intact (i.e. the same 50 BTC). Since we also assume that all things remain the same between these two dates (apart from the reward itself), the supply of coins would have been twice as much. Consequently, that allows us to assume that the price change within this time span would be half as much, i.e. 663/2=331.5 dollars. If we add this change to the starting price, we will get 343.5 dollars per coin in July, 2016

Your initial statement was that if every bitcoin was mined now the price would be three fourths of its current.

Yes, and I even gave you the rough estimate of the price which would have been today if the reward halving didn't happen, and all bitcoins would have been mined by July, 2016. Ironically, it turned out to be pretty close to the exact value of what three fourths of the current price are equal to, namely, 723 versus 712.5 dollars at 950 dollars per coin. Since all bitcoins would have been mined by July, 2016, it was also interesting to estimate the price which might have been by then too. In short, you basically have nothing of substance to challenge my estimates with. Empty verbiage obviously won't count...

Your approach to extrapolation is laughable if not outright ludicrous

Wow so because 16/21 is nearly 3/4 you think you are genius?
Good lord you are delusional the problem is you just dont realize it.

What you do is just extrapolating based on current price and maximum possible supply.
And the results dont mirror reality.

And when you take other price points the results differ even more from reality

Indeed, they can't mirror reality simply because we had two halvings in the past and still have plenty of years ahead till the last bitcoin is mined. And as I specifically emphasized it, there are a lot of ifs that would make the actual price differ from my estimates even if the reward hadn't been halved. But your estimates (6 dollars per coin) are totally off the reel as I already explained it to you. Simple common sense would suffice to understand that if we have already mined over 76% of all bitcoins, and the price is at 950 dollars right now, it can't possibly be in single digits if the remaining 24% had already been mined by now too...

You just can't throw out the window all that demand which has pushed the price so high
legendary
Activity: 2464
Merit: 1145
December 30, 2016, 12:08:27 PM
I don't get your point

We have a starting price of 12 dollars in November, 2012, when the mining reward had been halved from 50 to 25 BTC. The price in July, 2016, at the next halving, was, according to you, 675 dollars per coin, with the rise being 675-12=663 dollars. We assume that the halving was cancelled in November, 2012, and the reward had been left intact (i.e. the same 50 BTC). Since we also assume that all things remain the same between these two dates (apart from the reward itself), the supply of coins would have been twice as much. Consequently, that allows us to assume that the price change within this time span would be half as much, i.e. 663/2=331.5 dollars. If we add this change to the starting price, we will get 343.5 dollars per coin in July, 2016

Your initial statement was that if every bitcoin was mined now the price would be three fourths of its current.

Yes, and I even gave you the rough estimate of the price which would have been today if the reward halving didn't happen, and all bitcoins would have been mined by July, 2016. Ironically, it turned out to be pretty close to the exact value of what three fourths of the current price are equal to, namely, 723 versus 712.5 dollars at 950 dollars per coin. Since all bitcoins would have been mined by July, 2016, it was also interesting to estimate the price which might have been by then too. In short, you basically have nothing of substance to challenge my estimates with. Empty verbiage obviously won't count...

Your approach to extrapolation is laughable if not outright ludicrous

Wow so because 16/21 is nearly 3/4 you think you are genius?
Good lord you are delusional the problem is you just dont realize it.

What you do is just extrapolating based on current price and maximum possible supply.
And the results dont mirror reality.

And when you take other price points the results differ even more from reality.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
December 30, 2016, 11:36:34 AM
I don't get your point

We have a starting price of 12 dollars in November, 2012, when the mining reward had been halved from 50 to 25 BTC. The price in July, 2016, at the next halving, was, according to you, 675 dollars per coin, with the rise being 675-12=663 dollars. We assume that the halving was cancelled in November, 2012, and the reward had been left intact (i.e. the same 50 BTC). Since we also assume that all things remain the same between these two dates (apart from the reward itself), the supply of coins would have been twice as much. Consequently, that allows us to assume that the price change within this time span would be half as much, i.e. 663/2=331.5 dollars. If we add this change to the starting price, we will get 343.5 dollars per coin in July, 2016

Your initial statement was that if every bitcoin was mined now the price would be three fourths of its current.

Yes, and I even gave you the rough estimate of the price which would have been today if the reward halving didn't happen and all bitcoins would have been mined by July, 2016. Ironically, it turned out to be pretty close to the exact value of what three fourths of the current price are equal to, namely, 723 versus 712.5 dollars at 950 dollars per coin. Since all bitcoins would have been mined by July, 2016, it was also interesting to estimate the price which might have been by then too. In short, you basically have nothing of substance to challenge my estimates with. Empty verbiage obviously won't count...

Your own approach to extrapolation is laughable if not outright ludicrous
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