Exactly like i though what you did.
So take nov. 2012 price. Extrapolate to today 12$x10/21 <= 6$
So take nov. 2012 price. Extrapolate to today 12$x10/21 <= 6$
That would be the price in November, 2012 if all coins had been mined by then. But today is December, 2016 (if you have somehow forgotten it). You can't just take and throw away all the demand that has piled up since then, and which we assumed to be the same as it has been through the whole time span of 4 years (and don't forget that the elasticity of price is assumed to be constant too)...
As you can see, your reasoning is not sustainable
Why did you write this then:
Quote
Therefore, it would equal 12+(675-12)/2=~343.5 dollars per coin...
That would have been the price at the moment when the last bitcoin had been mined, namely, in July 2016. I guess I know what you are going to say next, i.e. how the price could have grown from 343.5 dollars to over 700 dollars in just half a year (from July through December 2016). The answer is pretty simple, and in fact I have already answered it in one of my previous posts. The price would have been surging because there would be no more bitcoins mined after July, 2016, just like it would have been lagging behind before that date simply because of the reward being twice as high its real value...
If you don't understand something, maybe, it is better to ask, after all?
Remember the 12$ from nov. 2012 and the 675 $ from july 2016.
Does something ring?
Read your post before that one again
I don't get your point
We have a starting price of 12 dollars in November, 2012, when the mining reward had been halved from 50 to 25 BTC. The price in July, 2016, at the next halving, was, according to you, 675 dollars per coin, with the rise being 675-12=663 dollars. We assume that the halving was cancelled in November, 2012, and the reward had been left intact (i.e. the same 50 BTC). Since we also assume that all things remain the same between these two dates (apart from the reward itself), the supply of coins would have been twice as much. Consequently, that allows us to assume that the price change within this time span would be half as much, i.e. 663/2=331.5 dollars. If we add this change to the starting price, we will get 343.5 dollars per coin in July, 2016
Your initial statement was that if every bitcoin was mined now the price would be three fourths of its current.
This assumption is based on nothing except wishful thinking.
The counter example is easy to understand you just need to take different dates of the bitcoin timeline and extrapolate.
(Indeed you might be less then several orders of magnitude off, but that doesnt really fucking matter)
