Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 40. (Read 13382 times)

In a war, it is always the common people who suffer. Transporting agricultural commodities such as wheat by rail or road doesn't make much sense, given their price per ton. So the only option is to transport them by sea. And in a war, both the sides would try as much as they can to reduce the revenue inflow for the other side. Ukraine, being dependent on exports of wheat and sunflower oil suffered as a result. Maybe once the war is over, the government will be able to build better storage facilities, which can store wheat for the long term.

Greece-Turkey conflict will stay dormant as long as these two countries are part of the NATO. I can see a more widespread conflict between ethnic groups that speak Indo-Iranian languages and those who speak Turkic languages. A few examples are as follows:

Kurds vs Turks
Tajiks vs Kyrgyz
Armenians vs Azeris
Ossets vs Ingush

Full invasion of Armenia may not be needed. All they (Azeris) need is to conquer around 200-300 sq.km of territory between Naxçıvan and Zəngilan. That will allow the gas pipelines from Azerbaijan (and also from trans-Caspian nations) to connect to Turkey.

War has a very big impact to the economy specially to those country who has a trading activity on the two country that involve on the war, my country import a gas on russia the very big effect is that the gas here my place is very expensive its price hike almost 95% of its natural price not only in gas but also in some other product that come from the country that involve on the war really spike the economy is suffering because the gas is really needed to transport a product from one place to another and it makes all basic needs product price rise.

Other benefits are for NATO which are massive:
3. Some say Baku will be added to NATO overnight if they succeed in taking that little corridor.
4. Europe would gain access to the gas-rich Caspian sea and can manage their energy crisis a little better.
5. Gaining access to that sea means NATO military bases right at northern Iran's border and bringing their navy to the Caspian sea threatening the whole region that includes both Iran and Russia.

For now it seems like Baku knows better to get into a full invasion of Armenia so they will most probably have a lot more of these "little adventures" with high casualties that end too fast in a cease fire like the recent one but each time advance a little more into Armenia.

Things could escalate real fast though, if a third party gets involved... I wouldn't rule out possibility of "something" hitting Istanbul out of "nowhere" either... There is already a conflict between Greece and Turkey too...

You, as always, distort the objective reality that is taking place in Russia's war in Ukraine. Putin would have announced a general mobilization in Russia long ago if he did not see the danger to his rule from such actions. To announce official mobilization in the country is actually to admit that the Russian regular army is suffering heavy losses in Ukraine and is not coping with the assigned occupation tasks. And this also means that Putin himself did not fully plan his "special military operation" and made a big mistake, and the people will not forgive him for this. In addition, Putin understands that the general mobilization will cause serious discontent among the people. It's one thing to sit on the couch in front of the TV and agree with television propagandists about the attack on Ukraine, and it's another thing to participate in the war, where they can get killed. In addition, the mobilized need to be clothed, fed, issued with weapons and provided with equipment, and Russia already has problems with all this. Therefore, mobilization in Russia is carried out, however, covertly and partially. But after the military failures in Ukraine, fewer citizens want to be cannon fodder in Ukraine. Therefore, Putin has to recruit mercenaries in Syria, Belarus, the countries of Central Asia and even prisoners in their prisons.

As for the shelling and bombing of the territory of Ukraine by the Russians, this is happening in full. On the territory of Ukraine, Russia has already fired more than 3,800 missiles, and fires at the civilian population every day and with all types of weapons. Where the Russians pass, 80-90 percent of Ukrainian settlements turn into ruins. Therefore, there is no need to tell fairy tales that the Russians are worried about the peaceful citizens of Ukraine.

Russia maybe even more dependent on Turkey, for exports of natural gas and crude oil. But I agree with your observations on Naxçıvan. It is strategically located. If Azerbaijan invades the area between Naxçıvan and Azerbaijan proper, then there are two benefits:

1. There can be a direct natural gas /crude oil pipeline between Azerbaijan and Turkey (the current one goes through Georgia)
2. Any possibility of a natural gas pipeline from Iran to Europe, through Armenia can be sabotaged

And I am 100% sure that the war will not stop unless Turkey and Azerbaijan conquers the southern portion of Armenia, which separates Naxçıvan from rest of Azerbaijan.

The deal is that from what I gather on all these news, Russia gave up because they couldn't get what they wanted. So, "maybe" they are just going back to original two land mass that they wanted to get and create a fake border, it would be Russian land and controlled by Putin but it is not really a Russian land as we all know because it is Ukrainian land.

So if they can't beat Ukraine in everywhere, why not just pull all the troops back to where it was and that way you would be able to just focus on getting back to lands that you wanted to take. I am not saying that is what happened, all I am saying is that it wouldn't be impossible for such an idea to rise and maybe that's a better military tactic?

   Between Russian and Ukraine war more damage's , more people suffering, and it's a big impact of economy. More supply that has been temporarily in scarcity it's sad to hear that more child crying while they on war.

Many people say that the economic recession that is happening today is the effect of the Russian vs Ukraine War, war is indeed a serious problem for the economy, there will be many problems, especially supply from war, Russia has large oil and gas reserves and most consumers are European countries so that when there is a war, Russia has more power.

Nah, Turkey can not afford to be a threat to Russia because they heavily rely on their energy and their economy is already in ruins and any new tensions (like a single loitering munition hitting an infrastructure in Turkey) would have dire economical consequences.

Those micro countries like Azerbaijan are not even considered big enough to be a threat. A handful of missiles are enough to neutralize each of them.
It's just that these countries have stupid politicians who are being abused by bigger powers and they think that they can gain some interest while everyone else is too buys to look at what they are doing. For example Baku is trying to take the area linking it to Nakhchivan but they won't be allowed to finish this ever simply because it is a very strategically important corridor that acts as one of Russia's main lifelines not to mention an important corridor to Iran since it is one of the routes used to link Iran to both Russia and Europe.

The misinformation Baku got was that the UNSC would busy Iran too much to distract it from their adventures. What they didn't count on was our military moving to the borders and the trigger fingers itching to take back Nakhchivan and possibly Azerbaijan (originally Aran) and reattach them to the motherland...

^^^ Russia is in a tricky situation with Turkic nations such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Rather than the threat from NATO, they should take the threat from Turkey more seriously. The focus is entirely on NATO encroachment to the west, while Turkey is silently encroaching into "Russian sphere of influence" in the South and Central former USSR. Russia has been forced to end its involvement in Armenia-Karabakh region. Now they are watching as silent spectators, while Azeri troops backed by Turkey are butchering Armenians in Karabakh. Yesterday alone the Armenians lost tens of sq.km of territory and dozens of soldiers. Kazakhstan has avoided a direct confrontation like Azerbaijan, partly because around 25% of the population is ethnic Russian. But I am expecting them to start provocations very soon.

Yep, Russia isn't just Uranium enrichment processes but also enrichment of used nuclear fuel and nuclear waste disposal. Russia is the key player here where contracts usually allow Russia to reprocess uranium and take care of the nuclear fuel, becoming a place to store nuclear wastes. I can't really think of a vision where nuclear energy become widely available without Russia in its supply chain to keep the cost down. At least for 10-20 years till countries start to ramp up their enrichment plant and nuclear waste disposal capability, slowly less dependent on Russia.

Sound a bit discouraged and some might think we are just trading one overlord for another if switching to nuclear energy. But as you say, it's still much cheaper than fossil fuel and nuclear fuel could be stored ahead. The down payment cost to open up a new nuclear energy plant for electricity and time till it reaches its full capacity might be discouraged but in the long term, totally worth it. Look at France right now, 70% of electricity production comes from nuclear energy, and sells excess electricity to its neighborhoods.

^^^ Kazakhstan maybe the top producer of Uranium, but most of that Uranium is being enriched in facilities inside Russia. So there is a dependency on Russia. And it will be interesting if Kazakhstan decide to stop sending the ore to Russia, in order to convert it to nuclear fuel. Not many countries are having Uranium enrichment capability. In case Kazakhstan opt Japan or United States instead of Russia, then the latter will find itself in trouble. Because Rosatom has long-term contracts for supply of nuclear fuel with a large number of countries around the world.

Agree. Only nuclear energy can help countries independent from the control of oil cartels. Widely available nuclear energy help developing countries move forward to the heavy industry phase. I saw you have the same preaching about nuclear energy as me, maybe we should open a club to shill for nuclear energy in bitcointalk.

Yes, Kazakhstan takes the share of 50% Uranium in the global export right now. If more countries switch to nuclear energy, I say Uranium production will be more attractive and countries will scale up their production too.

Uranium reserves around the world stood at more than 6 million tonnes (2019) while total Uranium production in 2021 is around 48,000 tonnes. There might be more Uranium reserves around cold countries unexplored due to permafrost (specifically: Canada, Greenland, Siberia and Antarctica). There is also Thorium that have the potential to replace Uranium in the future as a nuclear fuel and Thorium is 3 times more abundant compared to Uranium. In case anyone wonders how many Uranium we have left and what if it runs out.

source:
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/mining-of-uranium/world-uranium-mining-production.aspx
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/supply-of-uranium.aspx

I am saying this for quite some time. Nuclear energy is the solution to energy crisis in the world. It is the cleanest, cheapest and safest form of energy available.

Now we need to remember that Kazakhstan produces around 50% of the global output of Uranium. If nuclear energy gains dominance in the future, then Kazakhstan will find itself in a tricky situation and it will attract attention from the global powers. Already there is some sort of proxy war between Russia and Turkey going on in this country. Kazakhstan used to be aligned with Russia, but in recent times they have shifted their loyalties towards Turkey.

Inflation was already high in the world, when the war was added to it, especially food inflation increased. The amount of increase in products such as wheat and sunflower is quite high. Especially most of the wheat came from Ukraine. Moreover, I noticed that in the war environment, bitcoin turned red.

I think it mainly caused crisis in Europe geographically. Türkiye and China who are other gas buyers from Russia are totally unaffected with the war. So its hard to say it caused global crisis. Europe made a mistake building its all industries with considering cheap gas from Russia. Russia as a state was and still is aggressor in every region they involved.
I also think people will realize how important nuclear energy is. If you don't own any natural resources nuclear is #1 energy source still.

Russia wants to make this war a long-term journey. Russia's goal in the war is not to occupy the largest possible area of Ukrainian territory, nor to annex Ukraine to it in the literal sense.
Ukraine is nothing but a battlefield between Russia and the West, and each of them wants to limit the role of the other side and limit its influence.
Russia's hit-and-run policy is not absurd considering what the Russian Defense Ministry announced a few days ago that Russia has used only a small part of its military power.

Oh really?
Surprising to who?
To the guys that were posting things like:


In a few weeks, Putin will walk away with half of Ukraine...lol.
I will not quote your other failed predictions, not the 300 per oil barrel, not the 5000$ per whatever you measure gas future in, not the fact that Europe was supposed to freeze to death, not the fact that Europe has no gas while the deposits keep on filling even without ns2 and ns1 shut down, not the fact that Europe managed to get a 0.8% growth and Russia despite cashing in record money from gas went down by 4%...
Ups, wtf, did I actually mention all of them?

How about you have a full enlightenment moment and you start realizing that the truth is not what Russian and starving Iranian with 7$ a month food tickets propaganda want you to believe? This was the Ukraine army with a bit of help from Nato, no fighter planes, no helis, no MBT, no full range missile and ammunition, just 16 Himars (destroyed 100 times), while the US has ...about thousands of them.

Remember, the USSR went with the same tactic, it disintegrated, the EU was supposed to die twice in 2009 and 2013, but well, it didn't.
Use your head, not stupid shit vomited by people who have never set foot in Europe.


When you leave a full battery of Msta, again a full intact battery, 5 T-72 B3  parked one after the other in intact condition, when your propagandist post hundred of videos of how you're rushing in reinforcements to the front, lol, airlifting, again lol, BTR-D to send the to the front, when on TV your propagandist talked about columns of hundreds of vehicles reinforcing the front to crush the nazis, now...it was a retreat?
Lol!~

This whole operation is taking place under the sign of an acute shortage of personnel on the part of Russia. Putin refused to call for mobilization (and still refuses) and also refused to carry out mass bombing to minimize civilian casualties. Both of these decisions separately are correct, but taken together at the same time, in my opinion, are a mistake. Let's see how events will develop, Russia does not plan to abandon the originally declared goals of the operation.