Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 36. (Read 13382 times)

Yes, the second wave of mobilization in Russia is likely to start in January 2023 (after the New Year).  From November 1, 2022, the conscription of young people aged 18-27 for military service begins.  Therefore, the mobilization will be temporarily suspended.  

However, from the New Year, mobilization will resume.  None of the Russians wants to fight anymore (everyone who wishes has already gone to the front on the agenda or voluntarily).  

The world economy is in recession.  It has nothing to do with hostilities between Russia and Ukraine.
The paradox is that 2022-2023 could be (in theory) be incredibly successful for Russia due to rising energy and grain prices after the recession of the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic.  Russia could significantly improve its economic situation, raise the standard of living of its citizens, and at the same time contribute to a faster recovery of the world economy from recession.  

Instead, we are witnessing absolute madness and destruction of the future and present.

I never imagined before how easy it is to manipulate the collective unconscious, suppressing people's will to live and stimulating the will to die.  This is scary.

Expect another hit to the economy in around 1 week from now. The midterm elections in the United States will be completed by 8th November 2022. And immediately after that I expect the Americans to start refilling their Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The SPR is at the lowest level since 1984, and at some point the Americans need to refill it. And it is going to be tricky, given the recent production cuts by the OPEC+, and the proposed cap on Russian crude. I expect the Brent crude prices to climb to $120-125 levels by mid-November.

I guess sanctions have really "backfired", just like Putin predicted. Now the world is facing the consequences of punishing one of the world's largest exporters of oil and other necessary commodities. Unless the war comes to an end, the global economy will only get worse. I hope both countries (Ukraine and Russia) come through some sort of peace deal for this nightmare to end once and for all. The world doesn't need another war, as many lives are suffering both in and out of the conflict zone.

Not only Ukrainians and Russians are dying, but people from other countries are now facing starvation due to rising food and energy costs. The poor are now poorer, while the rich, richer. COVID-19 may've affected the economy for a short period of time, but the war/invasion that ruined everything for good. No one knows how long the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will last, so we can only hope for the best. Just my thoughts

The impact on the global economy is significant. For example:
Approximately 100 speed cameras were stolen in Sweden, the kind of cameras that were later found in downed Russian drones!
In Sweden for the last few months, unknown people (come on ) have been stealing speed cameras. Cameras of this particular model are used on unmanned vehicles that the terrorist country uses in the war against Ukraine. The Swedish edition Aftonbladet writes about it.
According to the publication, at least 3 cameras have been stolen on the highway between the cities of Hofors and Falun over the past 24 hours.
Two more were stolen close to Hedemore. The police are investigating the systemic theft of cameras!

There are Canon cameras in metal cabinets along the trails. It is these cameras that are in the Russian "unparalleled" drones "Orlan-10". This is confirmed by the dismantling of many downed drones.


https://www.aftonbladet.se/ledare/a/GMMK76/darfor-behover-putin-svenska-fartkameror

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/VPPe8l/stulna-fartkameror-blir-donare-i-kriget-i-ukraina


Russia has shown its historical habits here too - to steal and then lie :)and then lie

If you look at the absolute cost in USD terms, countries outside the war zone has suffered more economic damage when compared to both Russia and Ukraine. Crude oil prices have remained high, LNG prices are up by 20x, coal prices are up by 2x, Potash fertilizer has gone up by 3x.etc. Prices of wheat, sunflower oil and barley are at historic highs. We now have double digit inflation in most of the countries. And I would say that the impact is felt more in third world nations such as India, since we import most of the oil and gas from outside.

The Russian and Ukraine War is likely to happen for a long time and has been more than 9 months, the damage and chaos of the Ukraine economy makes us sad because the impact of the war is certainly massive on many people, and of course the global economy is affected by the increasing oil price.

1. From the news from the terrorist country, March 2022

"Practically all aviation, air defense and fleet of Ukraine were destroyed" 

https://rg.ru/2022/03/25/genshtab-unichtozheny-prakticheski-vsia-aviaciia-pvo-i-flot-ukrainy.html

2. Bayraktar TB took part in 2 very interesting operations:
- the destruction of a pack of Russian terrorists on Zmeinny Island, where Russia brought a huge number of air defense systems.
- a blow "on the unsinkable aircraft carrier of Russia" - the temporarily occupied Crimea, where almost 50% of all stocks of the terrorist country were located in the air defense and missile defense systems Then military bases, military airfields, fuel storage facilities and weapons burned. Have you decided to forget about it?

Once again - with the direct participation of Bayraktar, the most protected, from the point of view of air defense, airfields and warehouses IN THE DEEP of Crimea were destroyed.
Can you provide links? And about the fact that "Crimea has unparalleled protection, and no one will be able to attack it" - do you also want to listen and read, from Russian propagandists and generals?

It is mostly propaganda. Despite the significant damage to the Ukraine air strength, it was never a "complete" destruction specially when we have evidence such as this one from Chuchuiv air-base where Russian missiles hit everything except their targets!


Just as big a propaganda as saying Bayraktar drones were useful anywhere with any kind of air defense. Or that the majority of them weren't shot down in early days.
It is just as big a propaganda as claiming to shoot down Shahed-136 using any kind of traditional air defense or using their heat signature (something they don't even have).

Regarding lend-lease from Russia, I recently found interesting information:
In September-October, that is, during the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkov, Donetsk and Kherson directions, Russia lost 567 tanks and 890 armored vehicles. At the same time, 197 Russian tanks were captured during the chaotic Russian retreat. In total, after a large-scale invasion, Ukraine captured 482 tanks from Russian troops, mostly of the latest models.

For comparison: France is currently armed with 222 tanks, Great Britain - 225 tanks, Germany - 236 tanks.

According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the total losses of Russia are: 66,280 people (according to the data of the Russian Ministry of Defense, which were provided to Putin on October 14 - more than 91,000 people), 2,554 tanks, 5,235 armored vehicles, 269 aircraft, 242 helicopters, 1,637 artillery systems, 372 RZSO, 189 air defense systems, 3999 vehicles, 1286 UAVs, 16 ships and boats and other equipment.

According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, their total losses are: 2013 weapons, of which 317 tanks, 131 artillery systems, 51 air defense systems, 68 aircraft and helicopters.

Thanks to Lend-Lease from Russia, Ukraine is militarily much stronger than before the full-scale Russian invasion on February 24th.

Well.. I posted about the ones taking advantage of the war sometime back. Turkey tops the list, as they used this opportunity to invade Nagorno Karabakh using their lapdog Azerbaijan. Now they are doing the same provocations in Central Asia as well. And when they used the war for their own political advantage, we can expect them to do the same economically as well. Initially there was a lot of hype in the media regarding the Bayraktar drones. But now hardly anyone talks about them, after the Russian air-defense started shooting them down.

Pashinsky and RussiaToday are, of course, ideal sources of information   For those who live in fakes - that's it

Ok, I laughed heartily, let's get real!
After the start of another terrorist attack by a terrorist country on Ukraine, Ukraine received about fifty Bayraktars TB-2. The exact data is hardly available in open sources, but the approximate order can be found out.

It's silly to say (I'm not the Russian media ) part of the bayraktars were lost during the hostilities. Now these devices are used in the east and south directions. But their active use has now decreased. The reasons ? The Armed Forces of Ukraine have more effective means of destroying terrorists, such as HYMARS, kamikaze drones, high-precision artillery, guided missiles, etc.
The approximate number of operating devices (Bayraktars TB-2) is several dozen.

For educational purposes: In Ukraine, the construction of a plant for the production of Bayraktars TB2 and promising models has begun.
A full-fledged unmanned fighter (I understand for Russians with "analogue-shit" weapons this is not very clear ) developed by a Turkish company, equipped with a Ukrainian engine

PS by the way - I would like to hear your comments on the statements of the Russian media about "the complete destruction of Ukrainian air defense in March 2022"? Today, the air defense perfectly worked out another raid of drones and missiles of the country of an international terrorist! Only in the Kyiv region and Kyiv, 4 cruise missiles and 10 Shahed-136 drones were shot down.

I don’t ask about the rest of the “successes” of the army of marauders and terrorists, so as not to injure the psyche of supporters of the Kremlin ghouls and their fakes

And yet - tell me - where are the ragged mobilized ones driven like cattle for slaughter? In which country is the president-terrorist, losing the war, forcing his citizens to die for the sake of his complexes?

And yet - December-January a surprise awaits you !!! Yes Yes Yes ! Who managed to hide from the first mobilization ... will fall into the second! Which, according to the "president who never lies" is not, will not be, and definitely will not be

https://www.rt.com/russia/564899-ukraine-bayraktar-vovan-lexus/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-0hnhDOtCM
I always knew that Bayraktar drones were terrible but not this much! The chairman of the Committee on National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Serhiy Pashynskyi said they "lost all their Bayraktar drones in first week of the war since they were so useless that they were all shot down by air defenses".

Basically Turkey abused the current situation in Ukraine to globally advertise their useless drone so that they could sell it to idiots elsewhere. That is the same thing US has been doing. One example is their useless Patriot system that used to be sold for $3-6 million per package and now is being sold for up to $12 million.
And some people still have doubts about who is benefiting from this war and who started it

Considering that Putin won't back down, it doesn't seem that the war will come to an end soon. Allied countries will continue to send aid to Ukraine, greatly prolonging the war. To make matters worse, China is on the brink of invading its neighbor Taiwan. If the China-Taiwan war takes effect while Russia still hasn't finished with Ukraine, then the global economy will suffer badly. I just hope things get back to normal so that we can have a better future.

Rising geopolitical tensions, and COVID-19 variants are tearing the world apart. You can never expect inflation to settle this way. The future is widely unpredictable, so we can only hope for the best. Just my opinion

They are not in the same category though, Shahed-136 is categorized as loitering munitions while Mohajer-6 is in the same category as TB2. Although that too is not a good comparison since TB2 is more like a Frankenstein where they import each part and put it together inside Turkey while majority of Iranian drones are 100% domestically produced.

Iranian officials denied having supplied anything to Russia for this war not denying the UAVs or their origin. There really isn't anything to investigate since it is pretty clear. As I said above, these were sold to Russia way before this war began. There are some other military relations between the two nations where Iran receives Su-35 planes from Russia.

Today Russia continues to use UAVs to attack the Ukrainian city of Kyiv, the President of Ukraine accused these UAVs of being Iran, but Iran has denied the above allegation, in addition, I also know that the EU is investigating who is the supplier of UAV to Russia. Do you have any information on this case? It seems that Russia is using UAVs quite effectively in air raids after being repelled on several battlefields.

LOL.. Ukraine buying drones from Iran (although it is a very unrealistic scenario) will infuriate Turkey much more than it would irritate the United States. On the UAV- sector, it is a direct battle between the Bayraktar drones from Turkey and the Shahed drones from Iran. And so far the latter has prevailed over the Turkish counterparts. Given the strained relations between Turkey and Iran, I don't expect Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to sit quietly. He may create some sort of provocation against Iran, especially in Syria. 

It is worth knowing that these drones are already old technology and have been given to all Iranian allies in West Asia and also have been used against US targets in the region over the past decade. They are extremely effective and US has not been able to protect their own bases against them so far!

HIMARS, S300, all kinds of radars and anti air defenses, even MIG-24 are among the things that it has destroyed... Not to mention its regular use in Middle East to hunt Patriot SAM systems.

They can fly as fast as 200 km/h and leave absolutely no "thermal flare" because of their small engine and its type.

You can't shoot down Shahed-136 with small arms due to its small size (about 2 meters), speed and altitude. Not to mention that due to the material used in its body it won't fall even if it is shot with bullets.

There are more than a dozen ways Iranian drones are guided, GPS is at the bottom of the list and that's even if it is on the list.

To be fair Iran has the strongest and most advanced military in the world but the source of that news about BMs is not reliable, same with the one about Shahed-136 drones considering that they were sold to Russia a long time ago (way before the invasion) to be used in the war against terrorism in Syria.

The real question is why isn't Ukraine buying arms from Iran and instead insist of receiving garbage from US? Of course the answer is clear: in the proxy war between US and Russia, US needs to control the arms that Ukraine receives in order to be able to prolong the war. In other words Ukraine is not allowed to purchase anything decent.

I already once suggested that you start writing fairy tales - you have a strong fantasy

The reality is much different, however, as always
- On October 10, over 80 missiles and up to 100 kamikaze drones were fired in Ukraine, by the army of a terrorist country. It is a fact.
- Since Russia is losing the war, as ordinary terrorists, they have no choice but to carry out terrorist attacks against the civilian population. which they did. The goal was - infrastructure elements - thermal power plant, thermal power plant, power grid nodes, hydroelectric facilities. The idea of ​​the terrorists is as primitive as they are - to create the same conditions in Ukraine as the majority of the inhabitants of Russia

What and WHAT has been achieved?
ROCKETS damaged some of the indicated nodes, no one denies this. Moreover, some regions were left without electricity for several days. From my windows, I personally observed the arrival of a rocket at the thermal power plant, which is located on the territory of Kyiv, on the left bank, I even filmed a video.

What was destroyed and disabled by IRANIAN kamikaze drones, which "great Russia" was able to beg from a technologically more developed Iran But it was destroyed ... almost nothing! Know what's the problem? In the Iranian drones themselves:
1. They are very noisy, we have already "christened" them - "Iranian mopeds", because the sound of their flight can be heard almost 20 km away.
 
2. Low speed and high thermal "flare" gives them out well. As a result, up to 85% of these drones are now lost. Shoots down from .. SMALL weapons / machine guns

3. Drones have 2 guidance systems: inertial, low-precision and ... American GPS. And what is very important - the "shaheeds" do not have remote control and monitoring. This is a drone designed for a one-way trip and as simple as possible - an engine, 2 guidance systems, a fuel tank, an explosive supply (20-30 kg). And this means that in the EW or "GPS noise" coverage area, he switches to an inertial system, which simply tells him "we fly straight, in that direction", waiting for the GPS signal to appear. If it does not appear, the drone can simply crash into a tree, a barn, a pole, or even fall, because. the inertial system is primitive and does not take into account the features of the surface.

What is important - the amount of explosives on board the "shahid" - a small part really reached the set targets, but ..20-30 kilograms of explosive is a problem for a residential building, but not critical damage for industrial facilities. Even TEC, where there were 2 or 3 "shahid" hits, restored its work very quickly.

And the missiles, yes - they caused noticeable damage, because. Ukrainian air defense, of course, was not ready for such a massive launch. BUT. Most of the problems have already been fixed! Our partners are already supplying us with air defense and missile defense systems.

So Russian pensioners and others will soon pay out of their own pocket and with their lives for absolutely useless Russian under-rockets

PS Yes, we know that the "second army ... of the fourth world" has already begged for ballistic missiles from Iran. We know. But we are not afraid. We know that they will fly to us, but our goal is the destruction of the regime of world terrorism, and for this we will definitely fight. Until the victorious finale!
The terrorist country with its own hands has left us no other solution to the problem than the complete defeat of the terrorist army of Russia, the country of the international terrorist, now officially!

The plane is a trifle against the background of how the Armed Forces of Ukraine every day send hundreds of representatives of the "second most powerful army in the world" to hell, and destroy hundreds of millions of dollars worth of equipment of the terrorist army
By the way - thanks to Russia for the most powerful Lend Lease! Lend-Lease, which Russia has launched since March 2022, is constantly leaving tens and hundreds of units of military equipment of our army. A very cool fact, easily verifiable - there were fewer tanks and armored personnel carriers in the Armed Forces of Ukraine before the war than in 3 months after the second phase of the terrorist war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine. And this is all due to the abandoned military equipment regularly "regrouped", but in fact cowardly fled, Russian terrorists
And the United States and Britain really train and advise our army, teach modern warfare technologies, provide real high-tech weapons, and not fake trash, which, with the help of Soyuzmultfiln, raises the ego of a grandfather with the sexual characteristics of a grandmother, and of the entire Russian people

Upcoming war will be drone based and human controlled fighter will be decommissioned. Iran already developed a lot in these sectors especially making kamikaze drone which is pretty much accurate in kill and you do not have much to do when you see it. Shooting down this bird size airplane becomes so hard and expensive. Most of the air defense system is also vulnerable to this system.