Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 36. (Read 11385 times)

Oh really?
Surprising to who?
To the guys that were posting things like:


In a few weeks, Putin will walk away with half of Ukraine...lol.
I will not quote your other failed predictions, not the 300 per oil barrel, not the 5000$ per whatever you measure gas future in, not the fact that Europe was supposed to freeze to death, not the fact that Europe has no gas while the deposits keep on filling even without ns2 and ns1 shut down, not the fact that Europe managed to get a 0.8% growth and Russia despite cashing in record money from gas went down by 4%...
Ups, wtf, did I actually mention all of them?

How about you have a full enlightenment moment and you start realizing that the truth is not what Russian and starving Iranian with 7$ a month food tickets propaganda want you to believe? This was the Ukraine army with a bit of help from Nato, no fighter planes, no helis, no MBT, no full range missile and ammunition, just 16 Himars (destroyed 100 times), while the US has ...about thousands of them.

Remember, the USSR went with the same tactic, it disintegrated, the EU was supposed to die twice in 2009 and 2013, but well, it didn't.
Use your head, not stupid shit vomited by people who have never set foot in Europe.


When you leave a full battery of Msta, again a full intact battery, 5 T-72 B3  parked one after the other in intact condition, when your propagandist post hundred of videos of how you're rushing in reinforcements to the front, lol, airlifting, again lol, BTR-D to send the to the front, when on TV your propagandist talked about columns of hundreds of vehicles reinforcing the front to crush the nazis, now...it was a retreat?
Lol!~

This whole operation is taking place under the sign of an acute shortage of personnel on the part of Russia. Putin refused to call for mobilization (and still refuses) and also refused to carry out mass bombing to minimize civilian casualties. Both of these decisions separately are correct, but taken together at the same time, in my opinion, are a mistake. Let's see how events will develop, Russia does not plan to abandon the originally declared goals of the operation.

I am not so sure about all this. Izyum was a major battlefront many months back and it was captured by the Russians after weeks of bloody fight. Same with Kupiansk as well. And these two towns were strategically located as supply routes. Surrendering them to Ukraine in a matter of days was surprising to say the least. And the Ukrainians are now claiming that they outnumber the Russians by a ratio of 8 to 1 in Kharkov front. Where did all the soldiers vanished? They are not making gains anywhere else. Donbass front has been stagnant for many weeks and in Kherson they are on the backfoot.

Don't be dramatic. According to information from sources close to reliable, about 1,500 soldiers controlled this entire vast territory in the Kharkov region from Russia and the LDNR. Most of which retreated in an organized manner across the Northern Donets River in order to avoid the threat of encirclement.

Think about following. Now Ukraine is fighting with Russia on their their territory. What are their primary goal - to force occupants leave their territory? Or to win in this war? What if Ukraine, with help of other countries, start a counter attack? Such scenario is very likely. If that happens, expect gas and oil prices to skyrocket, and current growth will be nothing. Then world economy will be in danger.

It is surprising how quickly the Russian army formations are disintegrating all over Ukraine. During the last 5-6 days, they have lost close to 9,000 sq.km in Kharkov, 500 sq.km in Kherson and major cities in Donbass such as Sviatohirsk. Lyman is being attacked right now and we may see the Ukrainian flag there within the next few days.


I am expecting that they will withdraw from Kherson and Zaporizhia in the coming days. There is going to be mass migration of ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians towards mainland Russia. Already being reported from ceded portions of the Kharkov Oblast:

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1569000056262430720

This is the biggest military defeat suffered by Russia since the second world war.

In fact, the world has already passed the critical point!
- In the EU, although there are tense expectations of winter, the preparation of stocks is in excellent shape! Already more than 80% of the filling of gas storages, from the last year's volume, and the filling is ahead of schedule, in comparison with the last 5 years. Moreover, the volume does not take into account the 15% reduction in gas consumption in the EU, i.e. taking into account this program - the filling is approaching 100%.
- The price of oil is falling, and will soon pull the price of gas along with it.
- Alternative gas supplies, in 2023-2024 will forever close the European market for the country of the world terrorist
- The food crisis turned out to be not as terrible as Russian propaganda and those who barked at it

The prospects of Russia's military defeat are becoming a reality, which will lead to the destruction of the center of international terrorism, and a long period of calm. For those who doubt the fact that it was the USSR / Russia that was the "head" of international terrorism, just pick up the story, and check 2 facts on the timeline:
- when the ussr/russia starts violating the agreements and starts behaving inappropriately, they begin to beat them on the hands and put them in their place. At this moment, unexpectedly in the countries "interfering" with the USSR / Russia to engage in crimes, terrorist attacks begin.
- when the USSR / Russia finds itself in a very difficult situation (usually financial) - the level of terrorism in the world drops sharply.
Just 2 facts, there is no correlation with other countries!

Afghanistan is a country, which has a lot strategic significance. But at the same time, for foreign powers it is extremely costly to conquer and hold that country, in terms of manpower and finances. This country doesn't have any significant natural resources, so the occupation can't pay on its own. The USSR learnt the lesson in a very hard way and decided to pull out of Afghanistan in 1989 after 10 years of occupation. The Americans did the same in 2021. And this was after spending trillions of USD in tax payer funds.

How Russia is retaliating against other countries, tells us that sanctions are working. The US and EU countries shouldn't let their guard down by tightening sanctions as much as possible (not lift them). With mounting pressure against Russia, it should only be a matter of time before Putin admits defeat and everything goes back to normal in Ukraine and the rest of the world. The longer Ukraine resists Russian forces, the faster Russia's army will fall (due to lack of supplies, soldiers, etc).

I just hope we see the light at the end of the tunnel soon for the good of the global economy. Both crypto and stocks have been severely affected because of the deteriorating global economy. Unless this mess goes away, we can't expect to see prices rise anytime soon. Just my thoughts

No matter how it sounds now, it’s somewhat cynical, but the terrorist war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine, and with elements of a terrorist-economic war against the EU, will give excellent results:
- The world will finally see what a terrible bastard they have created in the form of terrorist Russia. They will feel it "on their own skin", because previously they played either fools or infantiles, hoping that trouble would bypass them.
- The world stops any interaction with a terrorist country, a murderer country, a cowardly liar country.
- The EU economy will never again depend on the resources of a terrorist country
- Sanctions will at least lead to the degradation of the Russian economy to the level of the 19th century, the population degraded Putin himself and very successfully At best, Russia as an integral state will cease to exist and fall apart into many independent, free states.

The importance of Afghanistan can be seen from the fact that USA has not forgotten it. Very recently they did a drone attack killing Ayman al-Zawahiri and the air strike was done using air route that passes via Pakistan. USA has complete control over this region via Pakistan and Afghanistan until Taliban took complete control of Kabul.
The last Prime minister of Pakistan did show eyes to USA and other western countries and was quickly removed from power using Pakistan army. Afghanistan is important as it allow USA to sit on borders of China and keep a close eye on Russia also. 

It's all political nonsense
Basically they are praying every day that Iran accepts JCPOA (ie. the only thing that can prevent Iran from being a threshold country), but in their propaganda machines they pretend to be against it. This gives some dumb politicians in Iran that are supporting JCPOA the opportunity to bash others who aren't as being Zio supporters! At least this is what they did back in 2015 and it worked to some extent. It no longer works though in 2022 though...

Actually both countries have tremendous geopolitical importance that also affects economy even considering energy.

For starters if you look at the world map they are in a very major and important route that passes all through Asia connecting Mediterranean sea (Europe) to all over Asia (including China and Russia) from land. In fact Syria has a couple of very strategically important ports that Iran, China and Russia are using for their trades. As you may know the first step in economic point of view is security of routes.

Additionally when a region is destabilized, all that chaos pours into the whole neighborhood. So for example when Syria is being destabilized and it is US that is doing the destabilization, their forces are going to be hit all around the region which means for example Qatar and Saudi Arabia are hit and that threatens oil and gas supplies.

It's really hard to define how much impact the war is having, after all we were due for a proper recession if we exclude the randomness that was the Covid dip. There has definitely been a strong impact, Europe is a big contributor both to the global economy and a large buyer of things from places like China, so it has huge ripple effects if demand is being suppressed. Oil prices spiking is also a pretty reliable indicator that a recession will be coming soon after. All this has created some pretty wild inflation, it was hard to contain with just the after effects of the global pandemic but this war that Russia is waging on the edge of Europe has thrown all normality out the window. Russia has just cut off gas supplies and finally shown it's true face, that it is a useless trading partner and will have to sell it's primary source of income - natural resources - to other places and get a much lower price in return.

About 70,000 people came out for a three-hour protest against the government in Prague

The organizers criticized high energy prices and the pro-Western course of the current government. They asked their representatives for permission to conclude short-term contracts for the supply of cheap gas and oil.

I will assume that you do not quite understand what the USSR is, and today's Russia. If the USSR was just a bastard anti-human country, then modern Russia is an extremely bastard Nazi terrorist entity. His goal is not to make himself, his country better, but to make everyone around worse! This is such a negative derivative of the USSR. And what we are now seeing in the form of Russia is many orders of magnitude worse than Nazi Germany. Terrorist Nazism and complete anti-humanity, the desire to live in shit themselves and force everyone else - these are the main values ​​​​of modern Russia! Therefore, there is only one way out - to destroy it as Nazi Germany!

Do you really think that the status of a world outcast for many decades, isolation from the world, the status of "moral freaks" is a good position for Russia? Does Ukraine SUFFER from the help of the whole world? Are you seriously ? You probably do not quite understand what will happen in 2023. I highly recommend studying the energy policy of the EU, as well as thinking about why oil is now rapidly falling, and where will Russia go with excess gas if it does not have storage facilities, and the gas pipeline cannot easily switch to gas flow to China, for example!

PS The only thing Ukraine is suffering from now is the terrorist attack on its peaceful cities, the murder of civilians, by the new Nazis - Russians. But this issue is already being resolved, Russia will not spoil the mood of the whole adequate world for a long time

I think that all of these events are linked to each other in one way or another. It cannot be asserted that one region is more important than another, or that an issue around which a conflict revolves somewhere in the world (on an international scale) is more or less important than another issue.
For example, I see that the current Chinese crisis on the island of Taiwan is no less important than the energy crises caused by the Ukrainian conflict.

From a global economic point of view, Syria and Afghanistan are not important. Even in terms of crude oil production, Syria ranks much below other countries in the middle east. Afghanistan is even more irrelevant. On the other hand, Russia (and to some extent Ukraine) are among the most crucial countries in terms of commodities. Russia is the top producer of oil, gas and potash fertilizer. Russia and Ukraine are among the top producers of wheat and sunflower oil. And for Europe, most of the gas pipelines run through Ukraine.

But why do you think they want us to believe that? As far as I know, it is not in Israel's interest to have a nuclear power in the region capable of competing with it militarily. Iran has allies on the borders of Israel (Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and military bases in the form of militias stationed in several areas in Syria adjacent to Israel), and if Iran were able to obtain a nuclear weapon, its global position would become stronger and it would be able to provide support more boldly than it does today.

That's what they want the public to believe, otherwise the Zioterrorists are dreaming of the day that Iran is fooled once again and signs JCPOA. The US spokesmen have already confirmed it many times!

Well that's the Western wars that is always brought to West Asia aka Middle East simply because the colonizers are starving for energy and West Asia is the major source of it. It has nothing to do with "Muslim Countries".
So if some day the region gains stability and strong independent governments take control (like Iran did in 1979), they can start deciding the colonizer's fate. Which is why they destabilize the region to keep their own head above water (we can see what is happening to the West with a tiny bit of increase in energy prices!).