Many people are forgetting the fact that COVID is the primary factor for the dwindling global economy while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is the secondary factor. This particular war just made things worse for the entire world basically.
All countries were supposed to unite in order to overcome the consequences of COVID, but that clearly didn't happen thanks to pathetic fools like Putin, Rajapaksa etc.
Am pretty confident that all economies except for the Russian and Ukrainian economics will recover pretty quickly.
Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 38. (Read 11385 times)
The impact of the Russia vs Ukraine war is certainly very felt, now there are many economic crises and recessions that make it more difficult for people, especially many European countries that have a dependence on Russian gas so that it is difficult for European powers to stop Russian aggression.
This is very likely. But I do not think that the United States will allow this before reaching an agreement on the Iranian nuclear file. Tehran still has to make concessions to reach an agreement, and time is not on its side if America continues to delay the procedures. America is not in its interest to break Iran's isolation. Yesterday, the infrastructure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was destroyed in Syria by American planes, and Israel, on the other hand, reiterated its clear refusal to reach an agreement with Iran, as it does not want it to become a nuclear state (this will weaken the balance of power on the ground).
The biggest problem for European countries is not oil in the first place, because they can pressure producers to increase production, including Venezuela. The great crisis in the Russian invasion with the approach of winter. Gas is Russia's trump card in this confrontation.
The biggest problem for European countries is not oil in the first place, because they can pressure producers to increase production, including Venezuela. The great crisis in the Russian invasion with the approach of winter. Gas is Russia's trump card in this confrontation.
Relations between Iran and US are not warming up. Rather they are getting worse by the day. And Iranians are used to sanctions and at this point they know that the Western nations want them to increase the oil and gas production desperately. Since they are under embargoes for such an extended period of time, I really doubt whether Iran will be in a hurry to get rid of them. Especially given the perilous situation many of the Western economies are in. And increasing the oil production will also mean driving down the market price. This may not be acceptable for them.
World economy
I look to it that the war affecting the economy of every country and with research about it , Al-Jazeera gave detail of how some countries is affected and if the war did not stop , more of the country will keep suffering. Russia is part of the biggest supplier in oil and the short suorpply is affecting the world. The war is affecting the europe countries hard because two countries in the war are two big supplies to europe. Russia cut supply of oil to euro and that affecting production, gas use. The Ukraine economy supply large amount of iron, steel, ore,stag and ash to the world and euro now in shortage include animal vegetable fats and oil to euro and the other countries.
This is hard time for economy to survive what is your thinking about the collapsing of world economy with highing inflation.
I look to it that the war affecting the economy of every country and with research about it , Al-Jazeera gave detail of how some countries is affected and if the war did not stop , more of the country will keep suffering. Russia is part of the biggest supplier in oil and the short suorpply is affecting the world. The war is affecting the europe countries hard because two countries in the war are two big supplies to europe. Russia cut supply of oil to euro and that affecting production, gas use. The Ukraine economy supply large amount of iron, steel, ore,stag and ash to the world and euro now in shortage include animal vegetable fats and oil to euro and the other countries.
This is hard time for economy to survive what is your thinking about the collapsing of world economy with highing inflation.
The whole world is suffering because both Russia and Ukraine are global exporters of natural resources and goods. Not only that, but Europe depends heavily on Russia's gas and energy supplies to survive. With sanctions taking place after the war, Russia's decision to limit gas & energy supplies to Europe has greatly affected its economy. I guess sanctions really backfired like Putin once warned. Now it's up to global powers to put an end to the conflict or things will only get worse in the long run.
We were merely living with COVID-19, but now the war has taken away our hopes of seeing the global economy restored back to its former glory. And don't let me get started with the potential war between China and Taiwan. If that blows up, then the world economy will die to a point where there's no room for recovery. These are uncertain times we're living into, so it's better to be prepared before it's too late. Just my thoughts
I sense some changes coming in sanctioned oil (Iran as you mentioned, Venezuela possibly).
Reading the news I sense that too but the evidence suggests otherwise.I can't speak of Venezuela but Iran's sanctions were too long that Iran already found customers to sell oil to (including Europeans!). So in a way there is no need to sell any additional oil to Europe anymore, specially now that Iran is increasing pressure on the West for 43 years of sanctions.
In fact if any sanctions were to be lifted, there is a good chance that mostly Russia oil reaches European markets through Iran.
Hint: A little more than 2 months ago Greece seized an Iranian oil tanker and Iran responded by seizing 2 US oil tankers. The Iranian tanker was actually carrying Russian oil and was heading towards Western Europe.
Already Russians are transporting part of their oil in the stealth mode. Ship-to-ship transfers are taking place and Asian as well as European refineries are being used to produce finished products sourced primarily from the Urals crude. With prices remaining constantly above $100 per barrel, there will be a lot of demand for cheaper crude (not just from the third world nations, but also from the developed ones). Iran is definitely going to be one of the beneficiaries and as mentioned above, I foresee a large part of Russian crude supplies rerouted through Iran in the near future.
The biggest problem for European countries is not oil in the first place, because they can pressure producers to increase production, including Venezuela. The great crisis in the Russian invasion with the approach of winter. Gas is Russia's trump card in this confrontation.
not just from the third world nations, but also from the developed ones
All the third world nations that have oil are either already too insecure due to being a conflict zone like Yemen or are already occupied and US is stealing their oil like Syria. There is no extra capacity left.The developed countries that have oil have already picked a side and aren't changing it that easily.
World economy
This is hard time for economy to survive what is your thinking about the collapsing of world economy with highing inflation.
This is hard time for economy to survive what is your thinking about the collapsing of world economy with highing inflation.
Yes. If you think about it in the long term, you will see that the world economy is collapsing like the oil spill in the Middle East. things could be worse than imagined if the current low oil prices continue or fall even further in the next few months or a year.
The ongoing fighting in eastern Ukraine, together with the diplomatic sanctions that Russia faces from most western countries, could indeed seriously affect economic growth around the world. This however has negative and positive effects also on the economy. But new markets are opening up because other countries are taking over the work of Russia.
I sense some changes coming in sanctioned oil (Iran as you mentioned, Venezuela possibly).
Reading the news I sense that too but the evidence suggests otherwise.I can't speak of Venezuela but Iran's sanctions were too long that Iran already found customers to sell oil to (including Europeans!). So in a way there is no need to sell any additional oil to Europe anymore, specially now that Iran is increasing pressure on the West for 43 years of sanctions.
In fact if any sanctions were to be lifted, there is a good chance that mostly Russia oil reaches European markets through Iran.
Hint: A little more than 2 months ago Greece seized an Iranian oil tanker and Iran responded by seizing 2 US oil tankers. The Iranian tanker was actually carrying Russian oil and was heading towards Western Europe.
Already Russians are transporting part of their oil in the stealth mode. Ship-to-ship transfers are taking place and Asian as well as European refineries are being used to produce finished products sourced primarily from the Urals crude. With prices remaining constantly above $100 per barrel, there will be a lot of demand for cheaper crude (not just from the third world nations, but also from the developed ones). Iran is definitely going to be one of the beneficiaries and as mentioned above, I foresee a large part of Russian crude supplies rerouted through Iran in the near future.
There is definitely a negative impact on economic growth all around the world from the Ukraine Russia war. After Russia and Ukraine itself the next countries that are affected the most seems to be the European Union. The cheap energy from Russia was a big growth factor for the countries. Without it there will likely be recessions now. It's also not really clear how long this war is going to last, this could be going on for years and make everything worth. The biggest problem right now is the rising inflation, which everybody says is the fault of the Russia Ukraine war. To me it seems this is an excuse companies use to increase profits. Prices were already rising last year, but since February this year much father. Governments are trying to support people by lowering VAT or giving energy bonuses, which seem to only land in the pockets of the big energy companies. If all companies keep raising prices it will make inflation much worse.
I sense some changes coming in sanctioned oil (Iran as you mentioned, Venezuela possibly).
Reading the news I sense that too but the evidence suggests otherwise.I can't speak of Venezuela but Iran's sanctions were too long that Iran already found customers to sell oil to (including Europeans!). So in a way there is no need to sell any additional oil to Europe anymore, specially now that Iran is increasing pressure on the West for 43 years of sanctions.
In fact if any sanctions were to be lifted, there is a good chance that mostly Russia oil reaches European markets through Iran.
Hint: A little more than 2 months ago Greece seized an Iranian oil tanker and Iran responded by seizing 2 US oil tankers. The Iranian tanker was actually carrying Russian oil and was heading towards Western Europe.
Many analysts believe that economic recession today occurs because of the influence of the Russian vs Ukraine war, may be true because the war has a strong economic impact, many investors are afraid of putting money on investment, and choosing short -term investments and this is what we fear because the economy will move negative.
Talking about recession, this is what one of the leading German economists have to say:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-recession-increasingly-likely-bundesbank-says-2022-08-22/
Possibly after a bunch of gas hungry industries around Europe shut down and millions lost their jobs, the demand could decrease by 15%. 
LOL.. Europeans deserve whatever coming on their way. For many decades, Russia supplied them with cheap natural gas, which enabled them to become the industrial powerhouse of the globe. And then all of a sudden they got the idea of waging a proxy war with the hand that feeds them. Till now, the EU member states have supplied tens of billions of USD worth of weapons to Ukraine, which is used against the Russian army. And the funny thing is that the Europeans are complaining when the gas supply from Russia is reduced.
Many analysts believe that economic recession today occurs because of the influence of the Russian vs Ukraine war, may be true because the war has a strong economic impact, many investors are afraid of putting money on investment, and choosing short -term investments and this is what we fear because the economy will move negative.
Same with gas. The qualities are not the same. For example from what I gather the US gas is among the lowest quality gases alongside UK gas. So even when they import some LNG from US it still is low quality. Not to mention that US already significantly reduced its LNG export after the fake explosion in their LNG facilities.
Yup, they can always do more to refine or further improve but that's additional cost in the short term (building secondary refineries, e.g.). Though that also does mean it is about affordability in the long term.
I sense some changes coming in sanctioned oil (Iran as you mentioned, Venezuela possibly).
I wonder how the demand for gas will be reduced to this percentage (15 percent is not a small percentage),
Possibly after a bunch of gas hungry industries around Europe shut down and millions lost their jobs, the demand could decrease by 15%. France, Germany or Spain can easily afford alternative source of power but what about less wealthy EU nations. Diversifying their energy source would be difficult because most of them cannot afford it.
It is not always about affordability, it is also about quality and availability.For example the oil refineries that worked with Russia oil can not work with another oil like the one coming from US because they are different (light vs. heavy). So they basically have to rebuild the refinery if they want to change their source.
There are other alternatives that are similar, like Iranian oil that is the same exact thing as Russia oil but they face the challenge of availability since Iran isn't going to sell oil to Europe more than this.
Same with gas. The qualities are not the same. For example from what I gather the US gas is among the lowest quality gases alongside UK gas. So even when they import some LNG from US it still is low quality. Not to mention that US already significantly reduced its LNG export after the fake explosion in their LNG facilities.
Of course the war will definitely have an impact on the world economy. but the impact will be different for each country.
The impact that is felt the most is by the warring country itself. such as Russia and Ukraine. The next impact will also be felt by countries that do have an interest in countries that are at war. like Europe, which is used to receiving imports of natural energy sources from Russia. it is certain that Europe's economy will be in turmoil. we can see from the weakening euro. But for countries as far away as Southeast Asia. then the impact will not be so pronounced. America and Britain will also be affected. as well as other countries.
The impact that is felt the most is by the warring country itself. such as Russia and Ukraine. The next impact will also be felt by countries that do have an interest in countries that are at war. like Europe, which is used to receiving imports of natural energy sources from Russia. it is certain that Europe's economy will be in turmoil. we can see from the weakening euro. But for countries as far away as Southeast Asia. then the impact will not be so pronounced. America and Britain will also be affected. as well as other countries.
Everyone is impacted at this point. European countries are disproportionately impacted, because they are more dependent on fuel imports from Russia. Already there have been several regime changes across the world, which resulted from rising fuel prices. Sri Lanka and Pakistan are just two of the examples. The Americans are keeping fuel prices high, and engaging in geopolitics around the world. They tried to bully India to abandon Russian oil, but the government told them to GTFO. On the other hand, the Americans are earning good profits by exporting oil and gas to Europe.
As I doubt Europe will want to buy Russian oil, which means Europeans will have to face rising energy costs for a long time, and since everything uses energy to be produced then this means that the price of everything goes up as well, meaning that probably the only countries which will make a little profit out of all of this are those like India which can get cheap oil and the US which can sell oil to Europe for a premium.
The war impact is seriously very big, The current inflation is partly due to Russia Ukraine war. Disrupted supply chains, shortage o grains, market disruptions and so forth.. I think it all will run into billions,if proper analysis is done. I feel sad for those who lost lives and homes.. war is ugly. May it end soon.
Of course the war will definitely have an impact on the world economy. but the impact will be different for each country.
The impact that is felt the most is by the warring country itself. such as Russia and Ukraine. The next impact will also be felt by countries that do have an interest in countries that are at war. like Europe, which is used to receiving imports of natural energy sources from Russia. it is certain that Europe's economy will be in turmoil. we can see from the weakening euro. But for countries as far away as Southeast Asia. then the impact will not be so pronounced. America and Britain will also be affected. as well as other countries.
The impact that is felt the most is by the warring country itself. such as Russia and Ukraine. The next impact will also be felt by countries that do have an interest in countries that are at war. like Europe, which is used to receiving imports of natural energy sources from Russia. it is certain that Europe's economy will be in turmoil. we can see from the weakening euro. But for countries as far away as Southeast Asia. then the impact will not be so pronounced. America and Britain will also be affected. as well as other countries.
Everyone is impacted at this point. European countries are disproportionately impacted, because they are more dependent on fuel imports from Russia. Already there have been several regime changes across the world, which resulted from rising fuel prices. Sri Lanka and Pakistan are just two of the examples. The Americans are keeping fuel prices high, and engaging in geopolitics around the world. They tried to bully India to abandon Russian oil, but the government told them to GTFO. On the other hand, the Americans are earning good profits by exporting oil and gas to Europe.
I also don't really like war in any country because the effects of war are very bad and can also make everyone's activities become hampered and also hampered every day. So in general I also don't want a war to happen because that could hamper everything and it could also affect the market for the worse. I also hope the war will end soon and I would be very happy if it happened.
That's an humane thing to consider. I mean I have nothing to do with Ukraine and Russia war because I do not live anywhere in them, plus it did helped my nation get good wheat and oil deals to be fair and we had one of the worst ever inflation in our nations existence for the past 100 years or so, up until this war and we benefited from it and now the prices are a lot more stable and we are financially doing much better, all because we had deals with both nations and did not picked sides so we benefited from both of them.But at the same time, we are definitely doing something sad because it is definitely a sad situation to see people suffer so I rather do worse myself, to see people suffering from war.
So the nation could go whole lot worse, but it benefits me and I get rich and I live a great life while millions suffer, people still vote like that in that case. Hence, Ukraine and Russia benefited some people and they are supportive of the war and even Russia attacking and killing, why? Because they are benefiting from it and that is a very shameful act.
Of course the war will definitely have an impact on the world economy. but the impact will be different for each country.
The impact that is felt the most is by the warring country itself. such as Russia and Ukraine. The next impact will also be felt by countries that do have an interest in countries that are at war. like Europe, which is used to receiving imports of natural energy sources from Russia. it is certain that Europe's economy will be in turmoil. we can see from the weakening euro. But for countries as far away as Southeast Asia. then the impact will not be so pronounced. America and Britain will also be affected. as well as other countries.
The impact that is felt the most is by the warring country itself. such as Russia and Ukraine. The next impact will also be felt by countries that do have an interest in countries that are at war. like Europe, which is used to receiving imports of natural energy sources from Russia. it is certain that Europe's economy will be in turmoil. we can see from the weakening euro. But for countries as far away as Southeast Asia. then the impact will not be so pronounced. America and Britain will also be affected. as well as other countries.
All are not okay when the pandemic started but this war can be prevented or even stopped if they just sit and have a peace talk.
Both Ukraine and Russia already had numerous talks during this war (for example they met in Belarus and Turkey), but it gave no result. As well as they had numerous meetings before this war. Both parties are stubborn, stupid and see only their position.
I am very much interested to find real economic situation in Russia right now. Media cant be trusted, forum is full of trolls and propaganda. So far I looks (based on how media serve us news) Russian economy is doing great, European economy is terrified, world economy - as usually, someone is earning, someone is loosing.
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