The latest Avalon announcement in China(Translated). Batch #3, price and more. - page 16.

PuertoLibre

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Quote from: Rampion on March 20, 2013, 02:52:25 PM

Quote from: Dalkore on March 20, 2013, 02:42:50 PM

Quote from: BitSyncom on March 20, 2013, 02:36:39 PM

Quote from: repentance on March 20, 2013, 02:06:48 PM

Quote from: shibaji on March 20, 2013, 01:54:49 PM

I really wish the BTC to crash hard just after Avalon starts taking order. We shall see what happens to their BTC 88 - 115 payment plan. Greedy bastards.

How are they any more greedy than miners? Based on this thread, miners themselves have no confidence in BTC and view it only as a means to earn USD.

Bwahahaha, this the exact reason why I don't respect some of my potential customers, I don't even want money from these people. In afterthought, raising the price it must stopped a lot people were purchasing because how brainless the profit was, now there is some math and faith involved.

I assume that was the feeling. Many are finding out what happens when you deal with a principled business person. I was "really?" at first, but then after thinking about it, it didn't seem bad. With a ROI of 6-12 months, you know they will keep the gear on the network for that time, keeps it just the much more secure. Hope people are looking at other motives than just profits.

Come on. They are just pushing their profit to the maximum giving the circumstance that right now they have no competition, that's all. They even acknowledge that now ROI is not guaranteed, you need "math and faith". So the current pricing + the greed taking over will make them sell out the units, making a huge profit, while is quite possible (but not certain) that the batch #3 buyers will not even recoup their costs.

That said, I think they did a great move for themselves: they set the right price for people still buying the whole batch, in perfect correlation with the current exchange rate. If they priced the units let's say a 20% higher, maybe they would have a problem selling all the units.

Let us hope that the greedy, those with fat wallets or tons of BTC will fund their next process node jump.

Godspeed Team Avalon! Grin

gyverlb

hero member

Activity: 896

Merit: 1000

To put things in perspective, ASICminer shares, which are good for 155MH/s each when all of the 62TH/s are online (400000 shares total) are selling at 0.85BTC.

For 88BTC today, ASICminer gives you ~16GH/s.

That said if you really believe difficulty will be 10 000 000 in May/June for batch 3 after at least both ASICMiner 62TH/s and Avalon's first 2 batches (300 + 500) * 70GH/s = 56TH/s are online you will most probably be disappointed.

Even GPUs at current price would be profitable on a 10 000 000 difficulty, this would amount to a total of 150TH/s at a minimum with a difficulty in the 20 000 000 range (where even at the current price GPUs will start to retire).

That's assuming BFL and bitfury don't come up (late and early respectively) with another heap of TH/s or a private entity doesn't start (there were already some very large unidentified hashers on some pools for which at least ASICMiner denied being involved) mining with in-house ASICs.

wknight

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Bitcoin calls me an Orphan

If people do less bitching and more crunching numbers they will see the ROI is still pretty fast.

People are so quick to jump the gun on crying foul.

All investments are risky. Risk only what you can afford. Dont like the price.. dont purchase

I bet they still sell out in a day.

thorvald

sr. member

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Merit: 250

you should all remember the debates about btc conversion and the amount of btc you wanted from tom after the project failed
pay in btc to make btc that if fair

ngzhang

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Merit: 501

We will stand and fight.

we discussed batch3 price for a long time.

personally, i do think this is a reasonable price.

batch#1: 1300USD + your trust, batch#2: 1500USD + your trust, batch#3 = ?

why batch 1 and batch2 customers will enjoy such a low USD price and extremly high profit? because they put their valuable trust on us.

last September, most of you think we have little chance to win, or could be a crappy scam, you don't buy.

this January, considerable people think we take Jeff down or just spent 400K to make a prototype, you don't buy.

now, everything on track, machines delivered to your hands are only a matter of time. you want to buy them at a same price or something like 2000USD.

OK, please tell me, what is the price of people most valuable things "trust" should be? 500USD? no, 5000USD at least.

as a core developer, i look upon all Avalons as my son. i will send them to who believe us, not the faithless or buzzard.

PuertoLibre

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Quote from: m3whiteknight on March 20, 2013, 01:22:29 PM

or you can 4 unit for 240 GH of power for the same price of one avalon

One hopes that Gen 2 is slated for 240Gh/s.

We can dream!

BitSyncom

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Activity: 336

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Avalon ASIC Team

Quote from: Rampion on March 20, 2013, 03:25:22 PM

I will save BTC for your generation #2 first batch from now on Wink

Hopefully by then there will be more competition or the network hashrate is a lot higher so we won't be forced to come up with these ridiculous numbers.

tigerfree

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Quote from: PuertoLibre on March 20, 2013, 02:57:01 PM

Quote from: tigerfree on March 20, 2013, 09:49:56 AM

/damn i though it will be 2000$ or something around it i think i will pass it Cry

.

The funny thing is, alot of people will still buy.

I would not be surprised if a ton of Batch #1 customers start selling theirs. I know I am considering selling mine. One Ebay user is getting his sold for 15k....and he/she still doesn't have it in their hands.

I am going to guess the jump in price is a tremendous investment in the next process node they are aiming for. From the looks of it, they may well skip 90nm. (Pure speculation though)

---------------------

What is more interesting than anything else is what they intend to put out with respect to Gen 2 modules. Perhaps the same configuration but higher density chips I am hoping.

Are they still using the "Greater than 66Gh/s" language on their order page?

if they sold more than 600 unit and for cheap it will be great profit for them and will help other people ,
just hire some worker and your work will done fast and cheap + profit

Rampion

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Quote from: BitSyncom on March 20, 2013, 03:10:33 PM

- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.

Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.

Well, it's nice having you here answering questions. Unfortunately batch #3 is too risky for me, I don't have the bitcoins bought/mined cheap enough. In my opinion +6000usd is plain too risky given the circumstances and difficulty projections. I will save BTC for your generation #2 first batch from now on Wink

shibaji

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Merit: 102

It is hard to go through bitinstant. Limit is 500 USD - now it is less than 10BTC ; coinbase has limit 10BTC and does not work most of the time. Buying from others has high % premium.

But anyway, it was just a request - if not possible, it would be good to know when ordering may begin, and give sufficient time to collect BTC through various means.

Korbman

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Quote from: Dalkore on March 20, 2013, 02:42:50 PM

I assume that was the feeling. Many are finding out what happens when you deal with a principled business person.

Bwahahaha, holy shit that made me laugh. It is immensely apparent that Team Avalon has poor business experience, and for the record I have no problem with that. It's good for a company to stumble as they did, so long as they learn from their mistakes. In the end it makes you stronger. This, however, has yet to happen..hence the humor of you putting them on a pedestal.

Quote from: Dalkore on March 20, 2013, 02:42:50 PM

With a ROI of 6-12 months, you know they will keep the gear on the network for that time, keeps it just the much more secure.

Speaking of security, since when is vastly raising the bar to entry better for the network in the long run? Instead of thousands of people saving their pennies to make a purchase, Avalon is instead tailoring to a hundred customers who have substantial amounts of cash lying around. This sort of circles back to my comment on their "business skills"...

Quote from: Dalkore on March 20, 2013, 02:42:50 PM

Hope people are looking at other motives than just profits.

Dalkore, I trust you've been here long enough to understand that (for the vast majority of people) profit is, in fact, the primary motivator.

BitSyncom

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 251

Avalon ASIC Team

Quote from: shibaji on March 20, 2013, 03:14:13 PM

That's fine - it is a business decision. Please consider attaching a USD price as well, and give an option to pay with USD - that will enable people to buy the unit who do not have enough BTC

Ever heard of http://bitinstant.com?

shibaji

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Activity: 308

Merit: 102

Quote from: BitSyncom on March 20, 2013, 03:10:33 PM

I think once you stop thinking in USD the escape velocity will come. Why should we sell some hardware that will break even in a few days for $1800 while bitcoin continue to raise? Bitcoin mining should not be a small investment, nor it should be a quick way to make money, for network security purposes the ROI for these things should be AT LEAST 1 month based on a diff projection.

All Avalon is doing is giving people a chance to take up this investment based on a projection of 10,000,000 diff in May-June with a 1 month ROI time frame.

That's fine - it is a business decision. Please consider attaching a USD price as well, and give an option to pay with USD - that will enable people to buy the unit who do not have enough BTC

BitSyncom

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 251

Avalon ASIC Team

Quote from: shibaji on March 20, 2013, 02:54:21 PM

Quote from: BitSyncom on March 20, 2013, 02:46:59 PM

Quote from: shibaji on March 20, 2013, 02:44:11 PM

Like I said, I really wish the BTC to crash once you have your ordering started - will see where your lecture goes.

Haha, so much hate, what did you miss out on batch #1 and 2 or something? Willing to make a comment based on the negative outcome of Bitcoin as a whole just to get at me.

I do not hate you. I do not even know you. I am a new comer in BTC market, and certainly was prepping my investment based on previous batch prices, so I expected something in $1800 range. I do not have BTC mined from earlier, so purchasing BTC with usd at 64+ is out of my capacity.

With the strategy change from accepting USD to BTC, potential customers and newcomers like me are screwed, without any hope to get into mining, since other than ASIC every other h/w is outdated.

The strategy of taking BTC is making sure, the people who bought batch 1 or 2 will keep on buying with the produced BTC (or the old time miners), and does not welcome new comers. Are you expanding the market with that ?

To be fair, why don't you give both choice of paying in BTC, or equivalent in USD ? Then there would be a fair chance. It is extremely hard to collect USD and then convert to BTC. Does that make sense ?

What I have been saying is purely my feeling as a new entrant in the market, who feels that he is out of option, just because this pay with BTC thing.

Again, I do not have anything personal with you or anyone at Avalon, so please do not take in that way.

I think once you stop thinking in USD the escape velocity will come. Why should we sell some hardware that will break even in a few days for $1800 while bitcoin continue to raise? Bitcoin mining should not be a small investment, nor it should be a quick way to make money, for network security purposes the ROI for these things should be AT LEAST 1 month based on a diff projection.

All Avalon is doing is giving people a chance to take up this investment based on a projection of 10,000,000 diff in May-June with a 1 month ROI time frame.

Quote

Don't get me wrong, I respect what you did. You are legit, and you did an excellent job. I just don't think that difficulty will be 10,000,000 when the batch #3 units will reach the customers. Two questions:

- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?

- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.

Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.

PuertoLibre

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Activity: 1890

Merit: 1003

Quote from: Minor Miner on March 20, 2013, 10:29:35 AM

Has Avalon sent a really nice fruit basket to Butterfly Labs to thank them for allowing them to be able to extract these rents from the market? Do not get me wrong, I completely agree with what Avalon is doing as it makes perfect sense (and actually may make this a more orderly business as people will have to think for a minute before pulling the trigger).

Buy Bitcoins because they are going nowhere but UP as people will need to buy more than they expected.

I wonder if it is an April Fools joke?

Dalkore

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Mining since 2010 & Hosting since 2012

Quote from: Rampion on March 20, 2013, 02:52:25 PM

Quote from: Dalkore on March 20, 2013, 02:42:50 PM

Quote from: BitSyncom on March 20, 2013, 02:36:39 PM

Quote from: repentance on March 20, 2013, 02:06:48 PM

Quote from: shibaji on March 20, 2013, 01:54:49 PM

I really wish the BTC to crash hard just after Avalon starts taking order. We shall see what happens to their BTC 88 - 115 payment plan. Greedy bastards.

How are they any more greedy than miners? Based on this thread, miners themselves have no confidence in BTC and view it only as a means to earn USD.

Bwahahaha, this the exact reason why I don't respect some of my potential customers, I don't even want money from these people. In afterthought, raising the price it must stopped a lot people were purchasing because how brainless the profit was, now there is some math and faith involved.

I assume that was the feeling. Many are finding out what happens when you deal with a principled business person. I was "really?" at first, but then after thinking about it, it didn't seem bad. With a ROI of 6-12 months, you know they will keep the gear on the network for that time, keeps it just the much more secure. Hope people are looking at other motives than just profits.

Come on. They are just pushing their profit to the maximum giving the circumstance that right now they have no competition, that's all. They even acknowledge that now ROI is not guaranteed, you need "math and faith". So the current pricing + the greed taking over will make them sell out the units, making a huge profit, while is quite possible (but not certain) that the batch #3 buyers will not even recoup their costs.

That said, I think they did a great move for themselves: they set the right price for people still buying the whole batch, in perfect correlation with the current exchange rate. If they priced the units let's say a 20% higher, maybe they would have a problem selling all the units.

I just think your not putting yourself in their shoes. For the timetable they are delivering and BFL not giving guidance, it is correctly priced for the time being. You need to look long term and think about why you are purchasing these units. Am I tantalized about the prospects of getting a great ROI, of course but I am also prepare to run these units over 1-2 years+ if I need too and then upgrade to Gen2+.

I believe Avalon will at at this for a while and I know they have tricks up their sleeves so in the end you need to ask yourself, do you trust BitSyncom/Avalon, their intentions and principles or not? Yes, like any one else, they could choose to totally screw us over but that is the risk you have to bear or not. At the point, it doesn't matter to me, I have made my decision and we will see how my faith placed in their company will pan out. I feel I have made the right choice and continuing to support them will be the right choice for me. If I am wrong, I will be the first to admit it as well and learn.

luffy

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Activity: 607

Merit: 500

15000$ is a one month profit from an Avalon now days (maybe less than a month)
i am sure whoever sell it, will cry later Cheesy

even the batch3 will get ROI during summer time IF BFL doesn't come out until then

Rampion

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Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: BitSyncom on March 20, 2013, 02:56:35 PM

Quote from: Rampion on March 20, 2013, 02:52:25 PM

Quote from: Dalkore on March 20, 2013, 02:42:50 PM

Quote from: BitSyncom on March 20, 2013, 02:36:39 PM

Quote from: repentance on March 20, 2013, 02:06:48 PM

Quote from: shibaji on March 20, 2013, 01:54:49 PM

I really wish the BTC to crash hard just after Avalon starts taking order. We shall see what happens to their BTC 88 - 115 payment plan. Greedy bastards.

How are they any more greedy than miners? Based on this thread, miners themselves have no confidence in BTC and view it only as a means to earn USD.

Bwahahaha, this the exact reason why I don't respect some of my potential customers, I don't even want money from these people. In afterthought, raising the price it must stopped a lot people were purchasing because how brainless the profit was, now there is some math and faith involved.

I assume that was the feeling. Many are finding out what happens when you deal with a principled business person. I was "really?" at first, but then after thinking about it, it didn't seem bad. With a ROI of 6-12 months, you know they will keep the gear on the network for that time, keeps it just the much more secure. Hope people are looking at other motives than just profits.

Come on. They are just pushing their profit to the maximum giving the circumstance that right now they have no competition, that's all. They even acknowledge that now ROI is not guaranteed, you need "math and faith". So the current pricing + the greed taking over will make them sell out the units, making a huge profit, while is quite possible (but not certain) that the batch #3 buyers will not even recoup their costs.

That said, I think they did a great move for themselves: they set the right price for people still buying the whole batch, in perfect correlation with the current exchange rate. If they priced the units let's say a 20% higher, maybe they would have a problem selling all the units.

if we want to min-max, we wouldn't sell in the first place.

the math is made on a one month ROI when diff is 10,000,000. very basic.

Don't get me wrong, I respect what you did. You are legit, and you did an excellent job. I just don't think that difficulty will be 10,000,000 when the batch #3 units will reach the customers. Two questions:

- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?

Clearfly

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Activity: 143

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Batch #2 funds were used to fund the production of Batch #1 products which the say they are now nearing completion.

Batch #3 now 88BTC has taken the price from $1500 to $5280 per unit. Sounds like they are really struggling to fund this project to me.

PuertoLibre

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Activity: 1890

Merit: 1003

Quote from: tigerfree on March 20, 2013, 09:49:56 AM

/damn i though it will be 2000$ or something around it i think i will pass it Cry

.

The funny thing is, alot of people will still buy.

I would not be surprised if a ton of Batch #1 customers start selling theirs. I know I am considering selling mine. One Ebay user is getting his sold for 15k....and he/she still doesn't have it in their hands.

I am going to guess the jump in price is a tremendous investment in the next process node they are aiming for. From the looks of it, they may well skip 90nm. (Pure speculation though)

---------------------

What is more interesting than anything else is what they intend to put out with respect to Gen 2 modules. Perhaps the same configuration but higher density chips I am hoping.

Are they still using the "Greater than 66Gh/s" language on their order page?

Topic: The latest Avalon announcement in China(Translated). Batch #3, price and more. - page 16. (Read 36556 times)