Topic: The ruble is going to hell (not anymore?) (Read 1066 times)

I am not entirely sure if Russia is that much "in love" with Europe as you imagine they are. I know plenty of Russian people who worked with me back in the day because of my job, and none of them liked Europe, and I do not mean like love, or enjoy, or anything like that, they literally HATED Europe.

Maybe it is a devise issue, maybe there are some who like Europe and some that dislike Europe and I can understand that, but this is not "general Russian approach", it is "some Russians" at the very best case. I have met with 10+ Russians and not even a single one liked Europe. This is why I have to say probably not even the majority likes Europe enough to be like them and want to be a European nation.

i also admit that, the sense of nationalism of the Russian population is very high and difficult to shake, especially since the majority are pro-Putin.  Russia is currently returning to their former self-reliant economy with China as their aid, this is the reason the sanctions imposed will not have a major impact on Putin's war decisions, plus Putin only accepts rubles and bitcoins as purchases of gas and oil. it will make geopolitics even more complicated.

Do you seriously think that Russia is a Slavic country??? Seriously ?! I will be forced to disappoint you greatly - no, Russia is not a Slavic country at all, although it really wants to be one, and therefore it constantly spreads this fairy tale on the wings of state propaganda!

The second, "eternal theme of propaganda" is "they want to capture us for the sake of our resources"
Tell me - why seize territories for the sake of resources, wage war, then spend energy on managing a herd of not the most educated people. To what? To start building infrastructure, to create normal living conditions for the natives? I will disappoint you - it is much cheaper and easier to print pieces of paper, give them to these Papuans, and she herself will bring you as many resources as you need !!!

Well, give me an example, over the past 50 years, when would the US or the EU take over some country for the sake of resources?

Nationality sentiment in Russians is very strong than other country in EU. They don't care about hunger if their countries national interest is in threat. They also have a strong negative sentiment towards non-Slavic people. And you are talking about peoples happiness then you have to understand happiness comes with a price. If Russia don't have strong military then it could be another Afghanistan or Iraq because of its natural resource.

When there were a lot of oil and gas revenues in Russia, it was necessary at the expense of the state to take every Russian to Europe on an excursion.  

Every Russian should at least once in his life visit the French Louvre, Gaudi Park in Barcelona, ​​Venice with its canals, calm Norway.  

And after the tour, the Russians would say - "Russia is a European country! We can also equip our country, and it will be more comfortable and richer than all these countries that we have seen. We have oil, gas, and we can use these resources for trade with  European Union.We have a huge intellectual potential, and we can create new technologies and new computer programs, create new architectural monuments and works of art.We can develop industry and agriculture.Our future is with Europe!Yes,we are not in the European Union now,but  in a few decades we will be able to create a confederation with him, because the economic and cultural ties between us will be incredibly close. And if we don’t like something in Europe, then we can do better in our own country and become an example for Europeans to follow  ".

I believe it was mainly because economy was not strong enough due to cold war. At least that is what we are thought, if they didn't try to spend all that money to beat USA in world stage and only focused on their people, they would have been a bit better, still not a perfect ruling system but at least they would have been better for sure. Instead they tried to build stuff or spend money on stuff that they could use to showboat to the world and show how "strong" they are.

The happiness of your citizens to live in your nation is the biggest show of force a nation would have. Why do people want to live in Norway, is it because they are good in space programs? Have the best army? Build the biggest building? No, because they have the happiest people. USSR failed to realize that.

In my opinion, the USSR collapsed not because of US sanctions, but because of the fall in oil prices.  

The fall in oil prices was the result of a secret agreement between the United States and the countries of the Arab world.  

The reason was not in Afghanistan.  The USSR was a real competitor to the USA.  The USSR had It was the ideology of building a just social society (communism).  The USSR was a powerful country with great industrial potential.  In addition, there was the Commonwealth for mutual economic assistance.  It included the countries of Eastern Europe and half of modern Germany.  

Thus, it was a real alternative to the Western world.  

Russia is not a competitor to the US.  It is a country without ideology, without economic power and without allies.  

China is not an ally of Russia.  China has its own economic and geopolitical interests.  

I don't know what's next.  Probably no good.  I don't see positive scenarios.

As long as their allies helping them to recover or avoid those sanctions for sure we cannot see them fall down for what they are facing right now. And looks like they are totally in better shape right now since we know that they are also hurting the economy around the world for their own resources which doesn't cross around the world. And besides Russia will not became big for just nothing so we can expect a fast recovery unto them especially that they are now dealing with China which is their tight ally in trades and other more.

I will tell you one instructive story. about the USSR. For understanding, Russia is one of the wreckage of the USSR, which got most of the assets and gold and foreign exchange reserves of the USSR. The USSR collapsed in the early 1990s. So, the problem with the currency has always existed in the USSR - this market was closed and the citizens of the USSR did not have the opportunity to freely buy currency. But this is a completely different story. So about the main thing - in the 1970s, the USSR starts a criminal war in Afghanistan. The victims of this aggression were more than 1 million civilians killed, tortured, tortured by the soldiers of the USSR army. For this crime, sanctions were imposed against the USSR, including those aimed at the hydrocarbon market. The economy began to receive less foreign exchange profits. At the same time, it should be noted that the resource component in the export of the USSR was much less than that of Russia today. Russia receives more than 40% of its real foreign exchange earnings from the export of hydrocarbons. So, even with an economy less dependent on the sale of oil and gas, the economy began to collapse. And then the games with the ruble exchange rate began. Officially, 1 dollar cost ... 0.68 rubles !!! Despite the fact that the real parity was, from 10-11 rubles for 1 dollar, at the beginning, to an almost Venezuelan scenario, before the collapse of the USSR. But the USSR felt the impact of sanctions 12-18 months after their introduction, and Russia - at the end of the first month ... Then think for yourself about the trends

Exactly. Russians are in a very tight financial situation as a result of the sanctions imposed by Western countries and the EU. It's going to take a hell of a lot of time and effort to be able to put the economy back to the way it was. China may help Russia, but that might not be enough to make the Ruble rise from the ground up. Still, it's probable the Russian government will rely on Bitcoin as a reserve currency in order to mitigate the negative effects of economic sanctions. It may not have much success trading Bitcoin for Ruble (and vice versa) through centralized exchanges, but at least there are alternatives which prove to be a short-term solution to the problem (mainly decentralized exchanges, atomic swaps, and in-person trading).

All in all, I think Russia's current situation will mark the end of Putin's regime for good. The longer it takes for the Ruble to recover, the faster people will emigrate from the country. The wealthiest people in Russia have already fled the country, so things will only get worse from now on. Only a change in Putin's mind (to stop the invasion) will help restore diplomatic relations between Russia and other countries worldwide. Who knows what the future holds for the country itself? Just my thoughts

Sanctions will work, but don't expect the destruction of the Russian economy to happen overnight. Remember the history of the USSR? Sanctions were introduced in the 1970s, after the USSR unleashed a war in Afghanistan. By the beginning of the 1990s, the USSR collapsed ... It will also happen with Russia, and most likely much faster - the economy of the USSR, although backward, was more or less self-sufficient, although also dependent on Western technologies. The Russian economy is resource-rich, technologically very backward, heavily dependent on Western technologies, money, and goods. I am sure the first noticeable degradation in large cities will be noticeable by the end of summer (August-September of this year), the next 2-3 years will be years of systemic degradation of the Russian economy, when the remaining working industries will fall apart.

Unfortunately they did. I mean we would love to see what sanctions could have done, I would love it if they could have actually worked and Russians would have stopped Putin and this war would be over. However, Russia seeing how this is going, they will most definitely keep it going because they believe that they have been doing fine.

If the situation got worse and worse than I am sure even Putin would have been scared, but right now not only it gets better, but it is better than they even imagined it would be, basically back to regular life. This is why they do not see a point in stopping, they can attack all the way because there are no consequences.

It actually looks like Ruble has recovered since this happened, but it's an expensive illusion that the Russian government is trying to maintain for as long as possible. However the interest rate on the Ruble at 20% is very expensive for the Russian government, but it effectively means they'll just print money and it'll devalue over time if they keep it up. Energy exports will now account for almost the entire Russia economy as so many large companies have left, they have ruined supply chains in an area the produces a bunch of useful raw resources and the inflation rate for the average Russian is expected to be about 15% this year. If Europe is able to steadily wean itself off Russian oil and gas, which might take a few years, then it will have an even more hollow economy.

Why does the Russian government demand that "unfriendly states" buy gas and oil for rubles?  

Earlier, Russia signed a long-term gas supply contract with European countries at a fixed price ($300).  However, at present, the price of gas on the world market is $1,300 per 1 cubic meter.  That is, the Russian "Gazprom" loses $ 1,000 on the sale of 1 cubic meter of gas.  

Putin called the head of Gazprom Miller and demanded that he raise the price of the gas he sells.  However, Miller told Putin that this was impossible.  Unilateral change of a long-term contract is prohibited and punishable by a huge monetary fine.  Then Putin asked Miller how to terminate the long-term contract?  Miller explained to him that the contract could be terminated in the event of force majeure - for example, publications the issuance of a government decree.  Then Putin said - so everything is fine!  We will issue a government decree obliging Gazprom to sell gas only for rubles.  Then European companies will be forced to terminate long-term contracts, and in return we will conclude new ones on more favorable terms!  

This whole story is absolutely wild.  The Russian government is depriving the people of Russia of hope for the future.

This is without a doubt a problem that Europe is looking for, for its part RUSSIA is demanding that the payment for gas or even oil be in Rubles, that there is no other way to do it, and on the other hand there are countries that will benefit from this problematic, as well as Colombia, perhaps Venezuela, which by pure inspection we all know that the USA appealed to go to Venezuela to ask for a greater flow of negotiation so that they can supply more oil to cover all the demand that consumerism represents in the USA, from that the USA found a way to satisfy that need, the price of crude oil fell, especially when Colombia entered, the price of oil was around 140usd per barrel, when Colombia entered it fell to almost 110usd, so it is still expensive, when all this is normalize I think that oil will drop a lot in price, because I understand that Russia has accumulated large amounts of oil ready to be sold and this will cause a big drop in the oil market.

In March 2022, a huge number of people left Russia.  These are IT specialists, Big Data specialists, businessmen, financiers, engineers, theater directors, designers and many others.  

Some experts talk about 1,000,000 emigrants.  

The richest of them leave Russia via Turkey and Thailand.  The poor leave through Georgia and Kazakhstan.  

The ruble ceased to be a convertible currency.  In Russia, you can sell foreign currency (US dollar, euro, pound sterling, Swiss franc, Japanese yen), but you cannot officially buy foreign currency.  

Therefore, all emigrants sell all their possessions and buy cryptocurrency (mostly bitcoin).  

But many businessmen, in principle, are not able to sell their business, since even now it is estimated at billions of rubles.  Such capital cannot be converted into cryptocurrency and withdrawn from the country.

If we talk about the northern peoples, or even more widely - about the lands beyond the Urals, then these are all enslaved, original peoples, with a fairly long and self-sufficient history. At the same time, there are rich reserves of natural resources on their land. As history shows, such peoples can live for quite a long time and with high quality, within the framework of their traditions and habits, without deep integration into the modern world. And in the presence of minerals or resources, they can develop well by attracting investors. What you call "state support" is a play on words. At first, this support destroyed up to 90% of the local population, then appropriated all the resources, and now the local population lives no better than they lived 100-200 years ago ... And given the degradation controlled by the state, their prospects are not very positive.

In order to understand what the Russian state (or rather, the Kremlin authorities) actually brings, just look at the "European" regions of Russia - degradation, poverty, dullness, lack of prospects, moral decay, alcoholism and drug addiction ... Look at Google reviews of Rostov , Ryazan, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kaluga, Penza or Saratov ... And this is in a country that owns the greatest natural resources on earth! Which positions itself as a "world leader"

Do you know that now the soldiers of the "great Russian army" are stealing in Ukraine and taking them to Russia (yes, they are committing mass looting)? High-quality linen, carpets, televisions, household appliances, tools ... This is all that they do not have, and that is considered inaccessible to them, and the soldiers are residents of just those very European regions of Russia. "Average Russians" ...

San Marino, Liechtenstein.etc have history dating back to hundreds of years as independent kingdoms. You can't use the same logic to compare small Siberian tribes such as the Ewenk and Koryak. And the natives of Andorra, Monaco.etc constitute vast majority of the population in their respective territories. And in case of the Siberian tribes, they don't even constitute a majority of the population anymore in their own native villages (as a result of the collectivization program by the USSR in 1950s). And finally, given their economic and social condition, I don't think that they will be able to survive for too long without the Russian state support.

There are several factors that underlie it but indeed this could be one of those factors because indeed Putin's ban on conversion to other currencies makes most of them almost certainly shift their assets to crypto now.
but on the other hand even though i still don't really like putin's attitude at this time but indeed he is quite persistent and dares to take risks after a few weeks ago he declared that he was ready to take any risks he was still firm about it

It's not my map and you're only focusing on the population amount.
By your logic San Marino, Andora, Luxemburg, and Liechtenstein should not exist, because they are tiny, right?
And what language do Swiss people have, let's cut the country in 3!


Yes, they are.
Besides, why does the percentage of population matter anymore when it comes to dividing Russia? When Russian annexed Konisgberg there was no Russian there, when they annexed Moldova? Kurile was full of Russian, right? When you deal with Russia you must use their own logic.
Besides, you're not asking yourself a more important question, are the Russian citizens happy with them earning 1/2 of what the people in Moscow are making while they have 70% of the resources that make up the Russian budget?


And suddenly, no more rubles for gas, seems that Euros are good enough.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-says-putin-agreed-to-keep-payments-for-gas-in-euros/a-61310461
Another propaganda move, as useless as the others.