Topic: The ruble is going to hell (not anymore?) - page 2. (Read 1066 times)

Of course, to those who are surprised that Putin wants to sell gas in rubles, saying that this means breaking the contract, I say: "and to freeze the assets that the Central Bank of Russia has in the Western Central Banks is not breaking the contract?"


Yes, well, the same thing happens in Cuba. One thing is the official exchange rate and the other is that since everyone wants dollars or euros, they give you much more than the official exchange rate in the street for those currencies. So I suppose that the news are perhaps taking for granted the information given by the Central Bank of Russia without contrasting it? That is why I added to the title of the thread "not anymore" but with a question mark, because I wasn't so sure about it.

I appreciate the time and effort spent in creating this map. But it looks laughable. Separate republics for the Siberian tribes such as Nanay, Even, Koryak and Chukchi are not going to work because they have a population of only few thousands (and decreasing with every passing year). They constitute less than 1% of the population in the Krays and Oblasts where they reside. The Yakuts and Buryats are in a slightly better position, but still I don't think that they constitute a majority of the population in their territories. The same goes for the European part. Karelians are less than 10% of the population in Karelia, and Saamis are less than 0.1% of the population in Murmansk. The Komi are around one-fourth of the population in their republic, but you have included the Kray of Perm in your map.

I believe that he didn't "predicted" something to get better, he just knew that he had what the world wanted and that's what he relied on. The whole world knows it, and this is a long term solution. Ruble will recover when the sanctions are off, maybe even be better than what it used to be because it would show the world how powerful and needed they are.

However, it is definitely not a good long term deal. This war showed the world that it would be wiser to find alternatives to Russia's energy production, and every nation is doing their best, it will take years, maybe a decade before anyone can be independent in that sense, but the doom for the long term already started for Russia.

That exchange rate can last 100 years, just as Venezuelahad one official in place for a year after the differences were closer to 100x if people are not allowed to buy foreign currencies nor are businesses and they are on the other hand forced to convert everything back into rubles you can pretty much say this exchange rate is 1:10, not 1:90, the real value is not there.

As for the whole paying in ruble thing, it's just stupid.
Scenario A:
European company pays in Euros, Gazprom exchanges euros for rubles.
Scenario B:
European company buys rubles for euros, Gazprom gets rubles.

Spot the difference as it would be any!



Except:
Power of Siberia 2 is in planning and the plan has just been approved in late 2021, meaning construction will finish somewhere in 2025, there is no oil pipeline that would be able to supply oil to China in those quantities either, Ural oil is trading at a discount of 20$ to Brent, why would that be happening if there are buyers?
If Russia pushes Saudi Arabia out of China where would SA sell oil?

There is dreaming, and there is reality:
China's Sinopec pauses Russia projects, Beijing wary of sanctions -sources


I don't think that razing a country to the ground in a hunt for nazies can be called reasonable.
As for the boomerang effect, I've heard that for 10 years stating in breadlines about the death of capitalism, the damn boomerang never came back, all it did was hack the bear into pieces, seems that what is left of it still tries to blackmail the rest of the world, probably time to call some referendums in Siberia.

This one seems nice, it also respects the language and ethnic composition

As a person who regularly watches the news in Russian, I can say that Russia is serious about selling gas exclusively in rubles. Free or in any other currency of gas Europe can not be seen. There is China, which will gladly accept both oil and gas. But all these events were not specially prepared by Russia, this is just a response to a huge number of sanctions. Those countries that diligently sat and worked out how to take revenge on Russia could be a little wiser, realizing that the boomerang would work against them too.
Politics should always be reasonable, and when it is done with hatred, it always peels off in a negative direction.

Well, it seems that state interventionism has worked for Putin, at least in the short term, and that the ruble is recovering:

"The ruble is rebounding from the precarious losses seen since Russia’s intrusion of Ukraine, signaling that capital controls might be easing strain on the currency as officials try to counter the effect of crippling worldwide sanctions...

The gains have left the ruble just around 10% lower against the greenback than it was before the invasion.

The central bank imposed a series of measures to contain the damage from Russia’s economic isolation, including capital controls to keep cash from leaving the country. Russia has also moved toward requiring that natural-gas sales be conducted in rubles, though the major industrialized countries have rejected the demand.

“Capital controls are designed to keep U.S. dollars in the country and also to restrict rubles from being converted into dollars,” he said. “If the ruble basically can’t be sold, that’s a policy that should support the ruble and be a way to stabilize the currency against intense selling pressure.”"

Source: Ruble recovers to strongest level in a month, cutting huge post-war losses.

It will be interesting to follow this situation, as interventionism usually works in the short term, but not in the long term. Several factors will have to be taken into account: if a peace agreement is finally reached, for example, or if Russia stops supplying gas to European countries because they don't want to pay in rubles.

G7 countries are protesting this decision but Russia still insists that it only accepts payments in rubles. I think the Russians are not only warning but they are responding strongly to Europe with what they do to the Russian economy right now. In this game, I don't think Russia will lose because China is increasingly looking for gas deals with Russia. They are willing to accept Russian oil and gas very willingly.

It might not lead to a collapse but the economic sanctions that's going to be imposed and has been imposed by the west and the other neighboring countries would be the reason for it's collapse, like in World War 1 and 2, the initiators will always pay the highest of price and economic collapse will always happen.

Ruble continues to recover which isn't really surprising since Putin most probably predicted this and planned various measures to counter these issues. This power hungry maniac didn't decide to invade Ukraine on a whim.

He probably planned to execute it once the pandemic effect decreased. Ruble definitely suffered a lot because of his actions, but I don't think it will lead to a Russian economic collapse.

Let's see what happens at the end of the month, Russian President Putin signed a decree allowing the start of payments in rubles on March 31. If they do not accept the ruble, it means that Europeans will have to enter a long winter without gas to keep warm. There is still no effective solution to the gas problem in Europe, everything is just discussing and finding a solution.

Ruble has made a remarkable recovery recently. When the war started, it had plummeted to 1 USD = 140 RUR. The last time I checked, the exchange rate was 1 USD = 95 RUR. It is still down from the levels before the war, but the downslide is not as worse as some of the experts predicted. Also, the Urals crude is still being sold, although at a discount of around $30 per barrel (at an effective rate of approx. $80 per barrel). Russian natural gas is being sold to Europe without any discount and demand is increasing for discounted deliveries to Asia.

Russia is really helped a lot by having oil otherwise I think Russia will find it difficult to face sanctions from Europe and other countries,
if you see Putin with no consideration for his people at all it is like a dictator whose decisions are absolutely absolute and cannot be contested,
we will follow the progress of how far and how long this war will last and hope it will end soon

Putin stands strong without taking into consideration his people. Right now he wants to throw away the Ukrainian government and establish his Moscow regime in Ukraine. After several bilateral talks there is no conclusion on the war due to varied demands. Amidst this Ukraine have applied to join the European Union and how far this gonna happen.

Russia's oil wealth is the one that can help Putin overcome the ruble fall. In the recent announcement of paying ruble for oil and gas made small changes in the ruble. Maybe his plan is to extend the war until his things get settled in his country. Since then we can see different approach from him to overcome sanctions.

For deliveries as per the existing contracts, I don't think that Russia can demand payment in RUR. Maybe for spot deliveries they can demand that. All this rhetoric is just to warn Europeans that if they go too far with the sanctions, then their gas and oil supply will be disrupted. In the end, who is actually suffering? Oil prices are close to historic highs and energy prices in Western Europe has soared to such levels to make lives of ordinary people miserable. And I don't think that Russia is much impacted. The last time I checked, Sokol crude has once again breached the $100 per barrel level.

I do agree that it was a bit about Russia who was the one attacking, but if they attacked like Mongolia or Kazaks, do you really think that world would give the same response as they are right now? I do not think that they would even care about Ukraine as much if they weren't literally next to Poland, Hungary, Romania and so forth. Ukraine is literally the last front between Russia and Europe and if Ukraine is taken by the west and put into NATO and EU, then west would have a buffer zone in shape of Ukraine against Russia.

If Russia wins, then they have a buffer zone in shape of Ukraine against the west. That is the main reason why there was such a big noise about this.

I have read that many companies from Europe are accusing Russia of breach of contract because the ruble is not on the list of currencies in which they pay. But under European pressure many unreasonable sanctions were imposed on Russia, there is nothing wrong with Russia's counterattack. If European companies do not accept payments in rubles, the oil crisis will be even more dire.

It's true that when the people protested and wanted the war to be stopped, the Russian police disbanded it and if I'm not mistaken, several were arrested.
true or not I'm pretty sure it's an order from Putin but what's clear is that it's a pity that the government doesn't listen to its people,
The whole world is also hoping for that and we'll see what happens next

This is what's most troubling about the U.S's dependency on oil. They will gladly look towards Iran or Venezuela for oil instead of increasing their own production. Iran is a terrorist state, and Venezuela is pro-Russia. I suppose they could beg OPEC to increase production, but it doesn't make much sense to ignore the reserves they already have control over. I speculate it's so that the Biden administration does not upset the green sector lobbyists by appearing to be pro-oil. But in a time of crisis, you'd think there'd be an exception.

Not just in the short term, but in the medium term and long term as well. Oil is a non-renewable resource and in a few decades we'll run out of this commodity. Among the oil producing nations, only Saudi Arabia has the capacity to increase oil production significantly (up to 2 million barrels per day). And that volume is not enough to replace the Russian production (11 to 12 million barrels per day). All that said, I don't think that the Europeans would start paying in Rubles. It will be a breach of contract terms from Russia to demand so.

Of course! they discussed, but the problem of finding an alternative to Russian oil remains unresolved and I don't think they can solve it in the short term. Accepting payments in RUB was a surprise counterattack by the Russian side, Europe will have to start hoarding rubles or will trade goods with Russia for rubles. Only then will they be able to buy oil from Russia.