Topic: The ruble is going to hell (not anymore?) - page 5. (Read 1066 times)

If we look at official exchange rates the downfall has mostly stopped, mainly because you can't buy dollars and euros anymore.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/03/08/ruble-dollar-exchange-barred/
due to reasons. The same reasons some exchanges claimed to affect them to the point of shutting down and disappearing when the reason was the same as here, they have no USD left so they are forcing poeple to keep their money in rubles.


Oh, the CB of Russia being incompetent again, what a surprise.

And with nobody being able to sell rubles for USD officially then it means the exchange rate can go in only one direction theoretically, but this is when the black market starts forming and soon nobody will give a damn about the official rates.

The reasons for this decision are extremely simple. Russia, out of habit, shot itself in the leg - when this winter, it took up natural energy terrorism. As you remember, after there were delays in the launch of Nord Stream 2, Russia did not come up with anything better than to limit the supply of energy resources to the EU! Throughout the Russian media, to applause and laughter, 24x7 speeches were flowing "well, Europe - will you not fulfill our requirements? WE will freeze you all! Ha-ha-ha! And you will not do anything to us!". And as if Putin's right hand in Germany, Merkel, did not try to play into the hands of Russia, the EU did understand that this is real energy terrorism, in reality they will constantly manipulate and force us, considering themselves "the king of the situation." Therefore, the EU and Germany, including, have made a very difficult decision for themselves - to actually break the connection with Russian energy resources, and become independent from any subsequent Russian terrorist steps.

Germany decided to go to 100% renewable energy by 2035, which should be self sufficient for the whole nation. I do not know how much that costs, and since Germany is a smaller nation than the USA, maybe it is easier, I have zero clue about the costs and the benefits of it. However, if the topic is to be independent when it comes to energy needs, and also cleaner world? Then what Germany aims to do should be what every nation aims to do right?

I am not well educated on the subject, this is just my "guess" and that’s all, I just assumed, no idea if that’s true. What will Russia do then? Ruble lost 50%+ already and it will continue to lose more, they need to find some trading partners to replace that lost money asap, otherwise they are screwed for sure.

Not a ruble is going to hell. The whole country is going to hell, in which, in the near future, a real collapse and division into many independent states, and I hope with the control of the established authorities. After the new sanctions on hydrocarbons adopted yesterday, Russia no longer has a chance. What you are seeing now is agony. You know, like a person in the final stages of cancer - he seems to be alive and breathing, and even speaks and communicates, but - there is no way back, death is ahead, and there is nothing to help. Just waiting for the final...

I don't know where you get that from. What Biden did is to continue polluting the same but costing Americans more. He stopped producing to buy abroad what is not produced in the USA.

Returning to the central theme of the thread, the ruble continues unstoppably downward. I don't know how this is going to be despite Putin's measures, since the currency is devaluating by leaps and bounds and these things don't usually end well.

We are approaching a global economic crisis where the vast majority of the population will be impoverished.

In the West, our currencies are not doing so well either, although they do not devalue as fast as the ruble. And the dollar, although it sucks, is serving as a safe haven, so it has done well. But rising energy prices and their impact on a lot of products will mean a loss of purchasing power.

Russia is a country that is rich in natural resources. Western sanctions will harm the western countries more than Russia, because they need these resources. Already energy bills and gasoline prices in countries such as the United Kingdom have shot up by as much as 200%. And analysts expect the prices to go up even further. Heavy industries are also impacted, due to the rising cost of natural gas. On the other hand, countries such as India and China are going to gain, because they will be able to source these resources at a discount from Russia.

So you are saying that if Biden allowed the world to get worse and allow the climate change to hurt the world faster so that humanity would cease to exist quicker (which it will, just slower thanks to those two things) then Russia would have been in a worse situation? I would prefer to see the world stay alive a bit longer before I allow Russia to win or lose or whatever, wars will impact one generation at most, climate change will impact the whole existence of humans on this planet and that is saying something.

Russia will also have a HUGE hard time the moment Saudis end up dropping the price. Trump ended up making them increase the price and not cut prices lower, Biden could make one phone call right now and make the price go to 50 bucks tomorrow, but I guess oil companies do not prefer that.

After Putin lost 11,000 troops, he needed to stop. The Russian Ruble is now worth nothing and Putin earned one million as a bounty.

This is not funny since now he is loosing and is cornered, he has used so many missiles more than 600 already that his military power is crumbling.

He won't be able to keep this up for long, the only weapon he has left is the Nuclear that is why the world is extra cautious about him.

The guy is going down and wants to take everyone down with him. Russian economy is done for and their gas business is dying, their country is not self sufficient at all and they know this.

Oil price is skyrocketing which I think in that area they will bounce back and Russia knows that already that's why their government is no worried about those temporary sanctions happening to them. But feel pity to those people who go affected especially those other citizens or overseas workers who work on Russia because their income will be totally affected on current economic situation on Russia especially for those people who save Ruble in their bank accounts.

but still the fall of the ruble will have an impact on the Russian economy. maybe they can get by with the oil this time. but for the long term and the many sanctions, will make this big country not good. so the only option was to withdraw their invasion as soon as possible, that way they could avoid worse trouble.

I don’t know what benefit Russia will get from the current military attack on Ukraine, but the international sanctions that have already been introduced and are being prepared will eventually set its economy back many decades. Russia is fast becoming a pariah and will most likely be another North Korea. Just thinking about how Russia will defend itself against sanctions is one thing. But Russian soldiers are now continuing to launch missile and bomb attacks on civilian cities in Ukraine, causing great damage to its economy and killing civilians.
Already now, the International Criminal Court in The Hague has begun to consider the application of Ukraine against Russia on the genocide of the Ukrainian people. The guilt of the Putin regime in this is obvious, and as a result, Ukraine will have to compensate for the damage caused.
Foreign exchange reserves in Russia were about 640 billion dollars and about 70 percent were in the accounts of banks in other states and have already been frozen. In all likelihood, they will go to Ukraine as compensation for damage. Other property belonging to the state of the Russian Federation and its citizens will also be confiscated. Russia will eventually be a secondary and impoverished country. Aggression will have to be paid for, and this is logical and natural.

Putin is not going to care as long as oil prices go up. Brent crude touched $139 per barrel yesterday and that will bring around $1 billion per day to the Russian treasury from oil exports alone (anything above $27 per barrel is taxed at close to 100% rate in Russia, and they export around 8 million barrels of crude every day). Natural gas prices are at record highs and that will also add to the revenues. And since Ruble is going down, the government needs to spend less money on salaries and pensions.

Biden made things easy for Putin, by sabotaging the Keystone XL pipeline and banning fracking on federal lands.

Dead bear bounce!


Yeah, trying to live in a glass bubble, shutting down the stock market, not allowing the population to convert to USD and euro, forcing companies to sell foreign currency to prop it, it the end the free market will always win, there will be a parallel exchange rate and then really it's going to go to hell.
I've told poeple numerous times, that's not how reserves work, that's not how sanctions work,  the 600 billion are nearly useless, it doesn't matter how big the country is, what matters is that it was poor as hell before, and now it will get even poorer.

And what poeple still fail to understand is that it doesn't matter that oil and gas go through the roof, if nobody buys it, Ural mix is trading at 90$, a full 25$ discount compared to Brent because poeple are not buying. And gas prices went up because Russia was not pumping, so how much you make if gas is at 1 trillion per cubic cm but you sell zero? Cause the moment they would sell the price would go down and everything they are pumping now is old contracts at far lower prices.

But now, Russia is stronk, Russia is big, Russia is ...in deep shit! And the only thing they have left and have an oversupply of is their pride, pride which will be their final nail in the coffin since it prevents them from making the decisions they should.


Putin never thought of that.
All Russians and even westerners thought Ukraine will fall in 3 days so basically by the time they would be able to react it would be all over as in Crimea.
If the Russians would have captured Kyiv and put another leader there basically what were we going to do, nothing, accept it and that's it, but people are fighting back and the west knows that Russia will never be able to control it, so sanctions now are hitting hard and the more the conflict goes and civilians are falling victims the deeper the hole Putin is digging himself and the country in.

Guess what, 140 USD per RUB! The weakest ruble ever, and it's going to get worse since Putin wants to cut the Internet. If that happens they'll be like North Korea. I said that in one of my previous posts a couple days ago, Russia is going to become isolated and abandoned and there was time to act and there were options to stop it, but instead of looking for a peaceful resolution Putin demanded that Ukraine simply gives up and stops resisting. I hope he goes to where the ruble is going.

There is a very strong possibility that at some point something like this is going to happen, but at the same time when people are confronted with the choice of obeying a nonsensical law and keep doing what they are doing which brings food to the table they will pick the latter all the time.

So even if weak governments begin to incarcerate cryptocurrency users in the near future that is not going to be enough deterrent against them, and not only that, such a thing will lower even further the popularity of the government creating even more resistance against such laws.

It looks like it has stabilized a little. Currently sitting at 100 per USD for many exchanges. I think the efforts that they took such as making interest 20%, injecting money into the economy and preventing selling of foreign currencies is helping. At least temporarily.

The stock market and everything in the USA seems stable too. The only thing that is ripping higher is the price of crude oil which hit $120 an hour ago or so.

This is pretty bad since we were around $80-90 a few months ago. And with inflation where it is this is going to hurt many people. Especially when it’s Time to buy gas.

It is amazing how hard and how fast the world has come together in condemning this invasion. He was most likely expecting a whimpering response like he saw in the 2014 Crimea annexation but this time is an extremely harsh backlash. There was zero justification for this war and it's finally exposed his incompetence. Unfortunately he is just a little old man now, so many other people dying is of little consequence to his future. Ukrainians and Russians, he's happy for them all to get slaughtered for his pathetic attempt at a legacy, he did nothing else for Russia in the last 20 years. I'm just waiting to see the devastation that will be reaped on the Russian stock market when they reopen after 3 days of forced closure.

Very nice example to prove how fiat's value is derived by nothing but how strong are other fiat's holding it. If all of them have targeted your economy you alone won't be able to handle your fiat and it will burst. Same which is going to happen to Russia if things don't stop soon. There is just one way Russia can handle this war it's using the printing machine but which also they would be able to do only until the economy goes into hyperinflation.

Talking about Best Change, I didn't know it was based out of Russia, but I think it's most of the operations don't involve Ruble, they do crypto to crypto exchanges and in fiat primarily dollar exchanging.

In countries like Russia, Zimbabwe and Venezuela, people may line up to convert their national currency to Bitcoin, and this may weaken the national currency further. And I don't expect the government to stand still and allow this to happen. They will take more and more authoritarian stance against the cryptocurrency users, else the national currencies will get destroyed. So it needs to be seen whether the users in these countries will be able to purchase cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

So far it hasn't even been a week of conflict and things are already so out of control. Inflation is rising while the Ruble is dropping sharply. It is crazy to believe that Putin factored in all these Western sanctions and negative economic effects on the Russian economy when he planned the war with Ukraine.  It is very hard to get any independent news from the frontlines, there are a lot of Ukrainian videos that showing abandoned or destroyed Russian equipment, while the Russian TV shows they take Ukrainian soldiers that are captivity and large columns of tanks and equipment heading for Kiev. The question I ask myself is how long can Ukraine withstand that Russian pressure? Putin must have factor a time period for Russia to withstand that economic cost of war, it might be 4 weeks, or 8 weeks, or even longer. But eventually Russia needs to find a way to reconcile things with the world and try to get access to western markets again. It also remains to be seen how far is China willing to go to support Russia.