The ruble is going to hell (not anymore?) - page 4.

virasog

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on March 14, 2022, 03:47:46 AM

Quote from: DrBeer on March 09, 2022, 11:32:51 AM

Not a ruble is going to hell. The whole country is going to hell, in which, in the near future, a real collapse and division into many independent states, and I hope with the control of the established authorities. After the new sanctions on hydrocarbons adopted yesterday, Russia no longer has a chance. What you are seeing now is agony. You know, like a person in the final stages of cancer - he seems to be alive and breathing, and even speaks and communicates, but - there is no way back, death is ahead, and there is nothing to help. Just waiting for the final...

That proves that HODLing Bitcoin is good as a hedge. HODLing Bitcoin is not only as a "financial hedge", but as a hedge against the people/leaders in your government in case they make a stupid decision. Cool

Bitcoin has never faced a war situation between the two superpowers before. This means that we cant say with conviction that it will act as a hedge in case this situation developed into a world war. Since bitcoin is currency pegged with the stocks, so if the stocks dump in the world war, then bitcoin will dump too. There is no value for fiat currencies, especially for the country in which the sanctions are proposed and applied. People of russia have no choice but to sell ruble and buy something better like bitcoin.

wxa7115

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Quote from: redsun114 on March 14, 2022, 03:31:33 AM

Quote from: darewaller on March 13, 2022, 12:02:00 AM

Venezuela was a place that was seen as run by dictator for a while now. And it hasn't been really changing at all, Maduro is still a dictator that causes his citizens to die of starvation and the world doesn't care, they think he is a dictator so the regular citizens deserve to die with all the sanctions.

It didn't hurt Maduro, he got what he wanted in the end, it required Russia to attack Ukraine to get Maudro what he wanted so it wasn't certain but at the end we are talking about him still in power while all those citizens suffered for nothing at all. I do not see this as a win for USA, it is a win for Maduro and a loss for his citizens.

When you are desperate enough, even a dictator could be the solution to your problems. Maduro is still a fake president that lost the elections and kept the power with the soldiers and he should have been outed years ago.

However, if you look at what is going on with Russia right now, if Biden didn't do this deal, then the population he is responsible for serving could have ended up suffering a lot more. They are not getting it right now and right away, but even the deal itself dropped the prices a bit. This is why I believe that we should not be really doing something that is judgemental to Biden right now, he did something wrong on foreign relations point of view, but did it to help his citizens.

Unfortunately the high prices of oil means that Maduro will remain in power for a longer period of time, after all Venezuela could sustain their system with high prices of oil but when they went down that is when things fell apart relatively quickly.

But now that high prices of oil are back Maduro will have a chance to try to buy the loyalty of the military and some key sectors of the economy, keeping himself in power in the process and delaying or maybe even preventing something that seemed inevitable, which was his eventual fall.

TimeTeller

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Quote from: Pomogator on March 17, 2022, 05:01:46 PM

Of course, the reality is very different from his plans. Even if in the future we manage to stabilize the situation, it will be very different from the previous indicators. Its no longer possible to return to the previous values. If a default happens, the country will go back to the 1990s, and this is a complete failure! I think it will have a big impact on the rest of the world.

We can't be so sure that their future is hopeless. They will recover but it would take years, maybe.
But if you are an investor, who believes that ruble can recover in the future, you can buy now while it is cheap.
But you need to wait and that waiting period is not a guarantee also. It is your choice if you want to take the risk.
The recovery period maybe long, but I think, they can. It is not the end of the world for them.
Remember, there are countries that still want to trade with them, just like China.

Pomogator

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Of course, the reality is very different from his plans. Even if in the future we manage to stabilize the situation, it will be very different from the previous indicators. Its no longer possible to return to the previous values. If a default happens, the country will go back to the 1990s, and this is a complete failure! I think it will have a big impact on the rest of the world.

Argoo

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Quote from: tbterryboy on March 10, 2022, 03:06:08 AM

Quote from: Poker Player on March 09, 2022, 02:09:58 AM

What Biden did is to continue polluting the same but costing Americans more. He stopped producing to buy abroad what is not produced in the USA.

Returning to the central theme of the thread, the ruble continues unstoppably downward. I don't know how this is going to be despite Putin's measures, since the currency is devaluating by leaps and bounds and these things don't usually end well.

We are approaching a global economic crisis where the vast majority of the population will be impoverished.

In the West, our currencies are not doing so well either, although they do not devalue as fast as the ruble. And the dollar, although it sucks, is serving as a safe haven, so it has done well. But rising energy prices and their impact on a lot of products will mean a loss of purchasing power.

Germany decided to go to 100% renewable energy by 2035, which should be self sufficient for the whole nation. I do not know how much that costs, and since Germany is a smaller nation than the USA, maybe it is easier, I have zero clue about the costs and the benefits of it. However, if the topic is to be independent when it comes to energy needs, and also cleaner world? Then what Germany aims to do should be what every nation aims to do right?

I am not well educated on the subject, this is just my "guess" and that’s all, I just assumed, no idea if that’s true. What will Russia do then? Ruble lost 50%+ already and it will continue to lose more, they need to find some trading partners to replace that lost money asap, otherwise they are screwed for sure.

After Europe saw an aggressive Russia, most states will switch to renewable energy sources much faster. They have already decided to get rid of dependence on Russian oil and gas very quickly.
Yes, some states will significantly lose from the imposed sanctions against Russia. However, they will simply have a destructive effect on Russia. There is simply no other way. A dollar there already costs 300 rubles, and it seems that this is not the limit, but only the beginning.
In general, in my opinion, with such an organization as the UN, it is necessary to create rapid reaction forces in order to quickly repel the aggressor in such cases by military means, and not by economic ones. It would be much more efficient.

coinfinger

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on March 14, 2022, 03:47:46 AM

That proves that HODLing Bitcoin is good as a hedge. HODLing Bitcoin is not only as a "financial hedge", but as a hedge against the people/leaders in your government in case they make a stupid decision. Cool

It was always obvious that holding crypto was a better way to hedge yourself against the fiat world. I mean we are in a world where fiat will be devalued for any reason at all and it is a constant thing. How many nations had negative inflation at any given minute, how many in the world have their wealth saved against inflation?

I am not saying that there are none, I am just saying that it is not common and that is why I believe that crypto is a lot better for everyday regular people like us. This means that we just need to keep it in crypto, and pick ones that are not terrible and will go down, and we will be right for the rest of our lives.

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Quote from: DrBeer on March 12, 2022, 04:03:53 AM

Congratulations to all, especially Russia

"Venezuela will sell oil to the United States."
The world is not such an idiot as Russia and the Kremlin underfunded. The world wants to live and develop and not degrade and close.
Caracas intends to increase oil production in 2022 to 2-3 million barrels per day and sell it in the United States.
"Venezuela is open to investment, oil and gas production, oil and gas stability around the world, including the United States. We are ready to sell US oil and gas, we must not politicize economic issues," said Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). President Nicolas Maduro.
Nothing personal, just business

I'd consider buying oil from Venezuela a dumb move since the country is a long-time ally of Russia. Financing Venezuela would be no different than financing Russia itself. The same can be said about doing business with China. As long as Western countries and the EU keep dealing with Russia's allies, their efforts to "punish" Putin will be futile. The Ruble may be going to hell, but that may not last for long as Russia seeks alternative ways to save its economy. With China by its side, anything's possible. These are uncertain times we're living in, so we should be prepared for the worst. Just my thoughts Grin

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: DrBeer on March 09, 2022, 11:32:51 AM

Not a ruble is going to hell. The whole country is going to hell, in which, in the near future, a real collapse and division into many independent states, and I hope with the control of the established authorities. After the new sanctions on hydrocarbons adopted yesterday, Russia no longer has a chance. What you are seeing now is agony. You know, like a person in the final stages of cancer - he seems to be alive and breathing, and even speaks and communicates, but - there is no way back, death is ahead, and there is nothing to help. Just waiting for the final...

That proves that HODLing Bitcoin is good as a hedge. HODLing Bitcoin is not only as a "financial hedge", but as a hedge against the people/leaders in your government in case they make a stupid decision. Cool

redsun114

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Quote from: darewaller on March 13, 2022, 12:02:00 AM

Venezuela was a place that was seen as run by dictator for a while now. And it hasn't been really changing at all, Maduro is still a dictator that causes his citizens to die of starvation and the world doesn't care, they think he is a dictator so the regular citizens deserve to die with all the sanctions.

It didn't hurt Maduro, he got what he wanted in the end, it required Russia to attack Ukraine to get Maudro what he wanted so it wasn't certain but at the end we are talking about him still in power while all those citizens suffered for nothing at all. I do not see this as a win for USA, it is a win for Maduro and a loss for his citizens.

When you are desperate enough, even a dictator could be the solution to your problems. Maduro is still a fake president that lost the elections and kept the power with the soldiers and he should have been outed years ago.

However, if you look at what is going on with Russia right now, if Biden didn't do this deal, then the population he is responsible for serving could have ended up suffering a lot more. They are not getting it right now and right away, but even the deal itself dropped the prices a bit. This is why I believe that we should not be really doing something that is judgemental to Biden right now, he did something wrong on foreign relations point of view, but did it to help his citizens.

TheCoinGrabber

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Looks like the ruble is in, um rubble.... I see nothing but trouble for Russians in the short term.

Unfortunately it's the civilians that will suffer from the devaluing of the ruble. Putin and his cronies well get by just fine and China would probably prop them up if things go from bad to worse, just like Beijing prop the Ils.

Quote from: darewaller on March 13, 2022, 12:02:00 AM

Venezuela was a place that was seen as run by dictator for a while now. And it hasn't been really changing at all, Maduro is still a dictator that causes his citizens to die of starvation and the world doesn't care, they think he is a dictator so the regular citizens deserve to die with all the sanctions.

It didn't hurt Maduro, he got what he wanted in the end, it required Russia to attack Ukraine to get Maudro what he wanted so it wasn't certain but at the end we are talking about him still in power while all those citizens suffered for nothing at all. I do not see this as a win for USA, it is a win for Maduro and a loss for his citizens.

Well even before this Maduro kinda fell away from the public consciousness. Don't Venezuela only sell crude oil? Last I read they're not even capable of refining the oil they pump. And they sell it pretty much mostly to China.

darewaller

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Venezuela was a place that was seen as run by dictator for a while now. And it hasn't been really changing at all, Maduro is still a dictator that causes his citizens to die of starvation and the world doesn't care, they think he is a dictator so the regular citizens deserve to die with all the sanctions.

It didn't hurt Maduro, he got what he wanted in the end, it required Russia to attack Ukraine to get Maudro what he wanted so it wasn't certain but at the end we are talking about him still in power while all those citizens suffered for nothing at all. I do not see this as a win for USA, it is a win for Maduro and a loss for his citizens.

kryptqnick

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Quote from: DrBeer on March 09, 2022, 11:32:51 AM

Not a ruble is going to hell. The whole country is going to hell, in which, in the near future, a real collapse and division into many independent states, and I hope with the control of the established authorities. After the new sanctions on hydrocarbons adopted yesterday, Russia no longer has a chance. What you are seeing now is agony. You know, like a person in the final stages of cancer - he seems to be alive and breathing, and even speaks and communicates, but - there is no way back, death is ahead, and there is nothing to help. Just waiting for the final...

Yes, I hope we'll see it happening soon. Ruble lost half of its value, if not more, and while it's good news, there's much more going on in terms of both sanctions and major businesses leaving Russia. The collapse of the Russian economy is imminent. As for Russia itself, I guess it depends a lot on the political will of people within various regions, as now is a good time to say goodbye to Russia and declare their independence.
And, referring to more recent discussions in the thread, thankfully, Putin is not backed by China. China's not stupid enough to support Russia right now because China's economy is also very dependent on collaboration with Western countries, and China has long been more of a fan of economic interdependencies, not military interventions that destabilize the region and the economy.

DrBeer

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Quote from: wxa7115 on March 12, 2022, 12:20:26 PM

......

Putin won't care because it has China backing him every step of the way. I'm pretty sure China will finance most of Russia's military and economic operations after fierce sanctions imposed by the West. To be able to stop Putin for good, Western countries must completely isolate Russia and its allies from world trade. Not only that, but all countries must unilaterally stop the import of Russian gas and oil. Once that is done, Putin will have no choice but to end the war with Ukraine. But the West's "softness" will only make matters worse, leading to Russia's uprising in the long term.

When Russia becomes self-sustainable, its own currency (the Ruble) will rise back from the ground up. The Ruble may be going to "hell" right now, but the effects might not last for long if Western countries don't tighten their stance against Russia. The ones that will be mostly affected are everyday Russian people as a worthless Ruble will lead many towards extreme poverty. Things are just getting started, so I can't imagine how everything will look for Russia and the whole world by the end of 2022. Just my opinion

But with China backing them it is impossible to completely corner them, after all sanctioning Russia is one thing but the US cannot do the same with China, if they send some sanctions to China to try to weaken Russia the Chinese can respond in kind and really weaken the US.

So even if the Russian economy as a whole is going to hell, and there is a huge boycott against anything Russian in the west, that is not going to stop Putin which seems hell bent on conquering Ukraine at all costs.
[/quote]

And why did you decide that China is a partner of Russia and will take the side of Russia?

Compare the US-West/China trade balance and Russia/China? Nothing worries you? And now look at the subject area of trade of the Russian Federation / China? The Russian Federation is a raw material appendage of China, which, moreover, now owns vast territories that historically belong to China, and in the east of Russia there has already been a long-standing expansion of the Chinese. There are already cities and towns in Russia where Chinese is predominantly spoken. The question is - what is more profitable for China - to stop economic relations with the West or continue to act as the "ruler of Russia" and buy from her for a penny the resources necessary for the economy?

Fortify

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Quote from: Poker Player on February 28, 2022, 11:55:24 AM

It seems that Putin's gamble is not working out as he had hoped. He is moving militarily rather slower than he anticipated and now apart he has taken two economic measures:

"President Vladimir Putin banned all Russian residents from transferring hard currency abroad, including for servicing foreign loan contracts, potentially putting much of the country’s $478 billion in external debt at risk of default."

Source: Putin’s Ban on Foreign Debt Service Raises $478 Billion Question.

To stop the bleeding of the ruble, which is plummeting even in the face of a weak USD due to over-printing, he has also ordered that: "Russian businesses that trade abroad must sell 80% of their foreign currency earnings and convert them to rubles...

A picture is worth a thousand words:

This is starting to cause panic among its population, which has rushed en masse to withdraw cash from ATMs:

Russians rush to withdraw cash at ATMs as rouble plunges; central bank hikes rates to 20%

The most important thing in the conflict is the human drama with dead, wounded and displaced people, but I wanted to open thread to comment in this economy section what could be the medium term future of the Russian currency and economy.

I wonder if some of these measures affect Best_Change, which I understand is a business located in Russia, but I don't know if they will want to comment anything.

While I'm definitely anti-Putin, I think we need to be careful about cheering too much at the downfall of Russia because at present he looks like a complete fool. Now, he is standing in front of the world with what is meant to be one of the scariest and top military might, yet it is getting destroyed all over the place - they haven't even achieved air superiority so far. Couple that with devastating sanctions that we've not even begun to see the effects of so far, and it's getting worse all the time for this man. If he's not already there, it's looking like he has nothing left to lose so might as well get even more destructive in this senseless war. There is no chance he's going to touch other NATO countries, but he can still unleash even more hell in Ukraine so who knows what will happen next.

wxa7115

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Quote from: Abiky on March 11, 2022, 01:16:49 PM

Quote from: Sithara007 on March 07, 2022, 10:01:30 PM

Putin is not going to care as long as oil prices go up. Brent crude touched $139 per barrel yesterday and that will bring around $1 billion per day to the Russian treasury from oil exports alone (anything above $27 per barrel is taxed at close to 100% rate in Russia, and they export around 8 million barrels of crude every day). Natural gas prices are at record highs and that will also add to the revenues. And since Ruble is going down, the government needs to spend less money on salaries and pensions.

Biden made things easy for Putin, by sabotaging the Keystone XL pipeline and banning fracking on federal lands.

Putin won't care because it has China backing him every step of the way. I'm pretty sure China will finance most of Russia's military and economic operations after fierce sanctions imposed by the West. To be able to stop Putin for good, Western countries must completely isolate Russia and its allies from world trade. Not only that, but all countries must unilaterally stop the import of Russian gas and oil. Once that is done, Putin will have no choice but to end the war with Ukraine. But the West's "softness" will only make matters worse, leading to Russia's uprising in the long term.

When Russia becomes self-sustainable, its own currency (the Ruble) will rise back from the ground up. The Ruble may be going to "hell" right now, but the effects might not last for long if Western countries don't tighten their stance against Russia. The ones that will be mostly affected are everyday Russian people as a worthless Ruble will lead many towards extreme poverty. Things are just getting started, so I can't imagine how everything will look for Russia and the whole world by the end of 2022. Just my opinion

But with China backing them it is impossible to completely corner them, after all sanctioning Russia is one thing but the US cannot do the same with China, if they send some sanctions to China to try to weaken Russia the Chinese can respond in kind and really weaken the US.

So even if the Russian economy as a whole is going to hell, and there is a huge boycott against anything Russian in the west, that is not going to stop Putin which seems hell bent on conquering Ukraine at all costs.

Poker Player

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Quote from: DrBeer on March 12, 2022, 04:03:53 AM

Congratulations to all, especially Russia

"Venezuela will sell oil to the United States."
The world is not such an idiot as Russia and the Kremlin underfunded. The world wants to live and develop and not degrade and close.
Caracas intends to increase oil production in 2022 to 2-3 million barrels per day and sell it in the United States.
"Venezuela is open to investment, oil and gas production, oil and gas stability around the world, including the United States. We are ready to sell US oil and gas, we must not politicize economic issues," said Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). President Nicolas Maduro.
Nothing personal, just business

Great move by Biden, what a strategist. Changing the energy he buys from Putin to beg to buy it from Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia, when he could produce it himself. I guess when they burn the gas and oil bought by the US to those countries, the smoke will be ecological smoke, or so he pretends to make us believe.

DrBeer

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Congratulations to all, especially Russia

"Venezuela will sell oil to the United States."
The world is not such an idiot as Russia and the Kremlin underfunded. The world wants to live and develop and not degrade and close.
Caracas intends to increase oil production in 2022 to 2-3 million barrels per day and sell it in the United States.
"Venezuela is open to investment, oil and gas production, oil and gas stability around the world, including the United States. We are ready to sell US oil and gas, we must not politicize economic issues," said Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). President Nicolas Maduro.
Nothing personal, just business

Flexystar

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Oh my God, that’s very bad condition for Russia and can’t believe that leader can actually take such hard steps just to acquire one land. This will cost him more money to rebuild the economy of his country than what he paid for land acquisition in Ukraine. Russia is on its path to destruction inside out. I just can’t imagine the rate of inflation that might be rising in the Russia at this stage. If they continue the war, the situation will even worsen and this will cause retaliation of other countries from Russian land in terms of businesses and employment. Most of them have already banned the services and product so no wonder Russia is on the verge of broken continent.

Abiky

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Quote from: Sithara007 on March 07, 2022, 10:01:30 PM

Putin is not going to care as long as oil prices go up. Brent crude touched $139 per barrel yesterday and that will bring around $1 billion per day to the Russian treasury from oil exports alone (anything above $27 per barrel is taxed at close to 100% rate in Russia, and they export around 8 million barrels of crude every day). Natural gas prices are at record highs and that will also add to the revenues. And since Ruble is going down, the government needs to spend less money on salaries and pensions.

Biden made things easy for Putin, by sabotaging the Keystone XL pipeline and banning fracking on federal lands.

Putin won't care because it has China backing him every step of the way. I'm pretty sure China will finance most of Russia's military and economic operations after fierce sanctions imposed by the West. To be able to stop Putin for good, Western countries must completely isolate Russia and its allies from world trade. Not only that, but all countries must unilaterally stop the import of Russian gas and oil. Once that is done, Putin will have no choice but to end the war with Ukraine. But the West's "softness" will only make matters worse, leading to Russia's uprising in the long term.

When Russia becomes self-sustainable, its own currency (the Ruble) will rise back from the ground up. The Ruble may be going to "hell" right now, but the effects might not last for long if Western countries don't tighten their stance against Russia. The ones that will be mostly affected are everyday Russian people as a worthless Ruble will lead many towards extreme poverty. Things are just getting started, so I can't imagine how everything will look for Russia and the whole world by the end of 2022. Just my opinion

FanEagle

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Quote from: tbterryboy on March 10, 2022, 03:06:08 AM

Germany decided to go to 100% renewable energy by 2035, which should be self sufficient for the whole nation. I do not know how much that costs, and since Germany is a smaller nation than the USA, maybe it is easier, I have zero clue about the costs and the benefits of it. However, if the topic is to be independent when it comes to energy needs, and also cleaner world? Then what Germany aims to do should be what every nation aims to do right?

I am not well educated on the subject, this is just my "guess" and that’s all, I just assumed, no idea if that’s true. What will Russia do then? Ruble lost 50%+ already and it will continue to lose more, they need to find some trading partners to replace that lost money asap, otherwise they are screwed for sure.

Going full on renewable energy is not just feasible for energy independence, or just climate change, but it is also getting economically profitable as well. Most companies who are doing it gets help from the government as well. You can spend a million dollars to get a huge wind turbine, but you will be also getting some help from the government to get it.

I know a guy who works at a company with 26 of them, it is such a huge company and yet all they have is 26 items, that's it, but when that 26 items are 26 huge wind turbines, they became like top 2000 company in our country. He said that even 1 hour shortage on one of them makes such a huge difference to their business, but at the same time they pay 20% less on taxes on average and many other benefits.

Topic: The ruble is going to hell (not anymore?) - page 4. (Read 1066 times)