Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 299. (Read 97223 times)

I like it...

And I'm more confident in picking Ortega to win than most of these other fighters in the event but I'd say don't add him in your parlay anymore with it being already at 12.96.  I feel like Yair Rodriguez could surprise a lot of us who follow these smaller events more closely.

Anyway in case some of you missed it, here's the ceremonial weigh ins to see the fighters one last time before throwing your money. 

UFC Long Island:  Ceremonial Weigh Ins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k29d3TStQhA

Ortega can win if a fight is close, but Rodriguez is sure to avoid that and might be a little bit away to find a good position to land his kick on Ortega's neck, then we will see Ortega KO sooner.

The thing is with Ortega, I find him to be technically brilliant some days, and then other days he just leaves his head on the center line, and almost invites his opponents to give him a good hiding. I do like him though, and while I have nothing against Rodriguez, I would like to see him win. His two losses come from Max Holloway, and Volk which isn't bad at all, considering the two just fought for the tile. Alright, Volk outclassed Max in every way possible, but Max still isn't a slog.

I'll probably put Ortega on my betting slip with the above in mind. The dude has only really lost against top tier opposition, literally the top guys, and while I'm not trying to be disrespectful to Rodriguez, I don't think he is quite on the level of these two.

Here are my picks for the upcoming fight on UFC on ABC 3: Ortega vs. Rodriguez highlighted in green are my picks

Brian Ortega VS Yair Rodriguez

The stake odds for this fight is Ortega with 1.57 while 2.41 for Rodriguez, well I am for Ortega here but I really like Yair Rodriguez's style and the acrobatic kicks were really awesome, for me, this could go the distance or could be a submission wins for Ortega, but Yair could also win this fight and I am always saying here in my previous post, that if this goes the distance Yair could win this with pressuring kicks to Brian Ortega, and get away to crucial takedowns and it could be a boring fight to some but it is a way for him in beating Ortega Izzy style, but if Ortega could pressure him going to the ground then it is over for Yair Rodriguez because Brian Ortega is well-known with his grappling, so for me, I will pick Brian Ortega, but I really want to see some picks here for Yair Rodriguez and what they think will he do to win the fight,

Michelle Waterson VS Amanda Lemos

The Stake odds for this fight are 3.35 for Waterson, while 1.33 for Lemos, for this game Amanda Lemon has the power to win against Waterson, but Waterson is well-rounded and has very decent wrestling, well I never see Waterson could win this actually, and even though I am a Karate Hottie fan and I really love her but I don't think she will perform his Jui-Jitsu on Lemos, mostly she will remain in stand-up and this could simply be brutal to Waterson because Lemos is decent in striking, sad to say but even though I like Michelle Waterson, I can not be blinded on what Lemos can do, so my pick will be Lemos,

Jingliang Li VS Muslim Salikhov

The stake odds for this are 2.30 for Jingliang while 1.62 for Salikhov, for this fight I am seeing Jingliang struggling again, Salikhov only has 2 losses and both losses were a rear-naked choke Submission is Jiliang can get the back of Salikhov which is impossible to do because Salikhov can still finish you as well on the ground, even though he surely loves striking I think his wrestling is for the Last resort situation, for me, I will be going with Muslim Salikhov,

I'll probably get my predictions out tomorrow, but I think the bet I'll be placing will be the following:

- Jack Shore to win by decision
- Miesha Tate by decision
- Waterson vs Lemos to go the distance
- Jessica Penne vs Emily Ducote to go the distance

That four fold accumulator returns 12.96. I'm not sure if putting Ortega on it for a bit more return is worth the risk. I expect a rather close main event. However, I'm feeling quite confident on the above. I might consider going for a Waterson by decision to buff up that return also.

The fight i am most interested about is makhachev vs olivieira its a bit unknown how islam is at the top level if he can withstand oliveira striking and take him to the ground how good will he be and is it enough for him to beat the champ so many question UFC fans want answers to.

I don't think his style has changed all that much, except for being more cautious, which he has a right to be. Holding onto that belt, and getting the win is the only thing that's on his mind, and that's what gets him paid. I have seen speculation that pay per view buys have been going down on Izzy fights, not sure if that's reliable, and also don't know if that's because of his adjustment while being champ.

Although, he's a bit hard to understand, as he moved up a weight, and took the risk of a clean record. So, he isn't overly cautious, just in his style of fighting. Against Romero, and a little earlier in his career he definitely took more risks.

For me Adesanya was a spectacular fight, as many of us think, the winner Adesanya is showing that he has improved a lot in his technique and is showing it in his way of fighting, it is not very common to see fighters like this, despite the Cannonier's entry I must admit, I liked it a lot, I could also see that this time Adesanya used his arms a little more, a style more focused on boxing, it's not bad at all, it is known in advance that boxers have a more particular style and that can be the origin of winning a fight, the good blows and the technique that he used seemed impeccable to me, not perfect but impeccable.

Yeah, I'm thinking this could be a close fight, and Waterson takes it via decision. Now, I'm not going to bet my house on that mind you. However, I'll be placing it in my ticket or I might go the safer route, and just put a bet down to go the distance.

I'm still undecided hence why I haven't posted my predictions or bets yet. Just going to review a few things, but Waterson is my early lean.

Jack Shore also will be on my ticket, not only because of being bias, and a supporter of him, but I genuinely believe he beats Simon, despite his wrestling skills. It'll be a very good grappling match I think.

In the Ferguson-Chandler match, Ferguson was already out of shape and unfit. Chandler had such good timing and was able to get that epic kick in his chin, with his hands down as if Ferguson's cardio wasn't all that good either. In the Fiziev and Chandler match, both sides will respect each other's wrestling and the fight will be standing. Fiziev's hands and technique are better, I agree, but I think Chandler's durability and cardio are better than him.

^  I think vs Fiziev, Chandler would have no choice but to use his wrestling.  And he has a good camp with those guys at Sanford MMA.  Pretty sure they'll come up with a good game plan that should incorporate Chandler's wrestling.

Anyway, it's really nice to see the fighters making weight lately.  Another event with no misses...  Here are the results.

Brian Ortega (146) vs Yair Rodriguez (145.4)
Amanda Lemos (116) vs Michelle Waterson (115)
Li Jingliang (170.6) vs Muslim Salikhov (170.8 )
Su Mudaerji (125.8 ) vs Matt Schnell (126)
Shane Burgos (145.8 ) vs Charles Jourdain (145.6)
Lauren Murphy (125.2) vs Miesha Tate (125.8 )
Dalcha Lungiambula (185.6) vs Puna Soriano (185.6)
Jack Shore (136) vs Ricky Simon (135.6)
Bill Algeo (146) vs Herbert Burns (145.4)
Dustin Jacoby (205) vs Da-un Jung (205.6)
Dwight Grant (184.4) vs Dustin Stoltzfus (185.6)
Emily Ducote (115.6) vs Jessica Penne (115.8 )

There seems to be a mistake with Tapology's page for this event.  Lemos vs Waterson is at straw weight, not at fly weight.  I put Lemos at my top ticket.  Now I'm feeling like it's going to be a close match.  :/

Ferguson really did not expect that front kick, but I think this was due to him being already old for mma, or slow, or less prepared for the fight. Such front kick are very common for Muay Thai, were Fiziev feels like fish in water.

If we use Fiziev and Chandler skills like paper-rock-scissors, then I think Fiziev is better in striking, but Chandler is on a completely different level of wrestling. Imho, in fights, pure wrestler usually beats pure striker (just because it is easier and faster to learn how to punch and kick, then become elite in wrestling). To bad Chandler refuses to use his wrestling in fights. He uses it as a defensive skill only. But since Fiziev wont try to take him to the ground, I expect them to fight in stance only.

In my opinion, the fight on Volkanovski vs Ortega was super legit and Volkanovski is dominating Ortega on the standup even though Brian Ortega caught Alexander Volkanovski on the ground and the fastest Guillotine Ortega has pulled against Volkanovski, and in 26 seconds Alexander Volkanovski still survives from Ortega's Guillotine, but Man Volkanovski if they fight again I will still bet for Volkanovski, he is absolutely one of the great strikers in the UFC, 

And in the Ortega VS Rodriguez fight, I really think that Ortega would have his dominance against Rodriguez, Ortega can capitalize on those leg kicks to secure a submission, and for Yair Rodriguez, he can win here if he can go the distance and keep the pace of his striking,


I think his Wrestling will be in the main game plan and the last result against Fiziev if they fight, I think Michael Chandler will pull another move that he hasn't used inside the Octagon at all like the Front Kick he used against Tony Ferguson, you see Ferguson isn't really aware that a kick on his chin is coming because his guard was all on the side, I really think he can pull something like that and his opponent doesn't have any idea about it to happen,

You're right...  Chandler doesn't really use his wrestling as his primary mode of attack.  But the thing is you know it's there ready to be used.  And if all else fails in the striking, I think any fighter who can't compete in a striking battle vs Fiziev will have to resort to their wrestling skills.  RDA did but he wasn't good enough.  But Chandler?  He's D1 wrestler so I think he could take Fiziev down easier than RDA did.  Dunno, that's how I see it happening in my head.

I totally forgot the fight that champ Volkanovski had fight with Ortega, and that was maybe one of the hardest fights for champion.
Checking UFC stats, and I see Rodriguez has overall slightly better Striking Accuracy, Defense, Takedown Accuracy and Defense, with reach advantage and more strikes landed.
Both fighters had experience with 5 rounds in fight, but Rodrigez had three and he won two in UFC.
This is not easy bet to make, and I expect long bloody war, but I am still on Rodrigez to win by decision, and fight to go to distance gives very nice odds on Sportsbet:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/mma/ufc/ufc-fight-night-ortega-vs-rodriguez/ortega-brian-vs-rodriguez-yair-629be5d8fba435cc007f66d0

Watch short video preview the UFC Long Island main event matchup between Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnadO_RrYrQ

Oh la, la, those fighting Kitties were really to die for, and where did you get those photos, they are really tempting to look at,

Anyway, It is not a slight intention to underestimate Michelle Waterson I really think she is great and I will actually root for her because I really love our fighting kitties, but Amanda Lemos is the real deal and if Waterson wants to win against her she needs to focus more on grappling, there is a soft spot for Lemos there and if Waterson can capitalize on it then she can win,


Well During Chandler's 8 recent fights he often does those takedowns but it will not be going into a follow-up to submission or ground and pound mostly he wants a stand-up fight and a front kick to the face of Tony Ferguson, I think this is a desperation move from Chandler and you didn't see this every day for Chandler to throw that kind of a kick, and not a characteristic of Michael Chandler to throw something like that, and after that win against Ferguson he even said that he will give us an exciting fight, which is I really doubt, and if Fiziev VS Chandler could meet I will put all my eggs on Rafael Fiziev, I think he can pull through and give Chandler a great fight he will not forget, for me the power shots of Fiziev is what will KO Chandler,


Brian Ortega is a well-rounded fighter I think that is why he is the favorite to win on betting, but the Kicking Acrobatic Yair Rodriguez can capitalize on those leg kicks and keep his distance for Ortega's takedown, he might win this, but in a boring fashion and knowing Yair Rodriguez he doesn't like boring fight he will surely bombard Ortega with all that he got, in a more beautiful manner with his kicks,

They both come from a loss but Ortega seem to have a higher goal after this fight, its a big motivation for him to win against Rodriguez.
Ortega almost caught Volkanovski many times during their fight, he definitely have the grappling and striking to finish Volk. Doing the same strategy against Volk may work for Yair too so this could be a wrestling match to end in submission. High chance for Ortega but I wouldn't say he will dominate completely, Yair can also KO him.

Main bout Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez match Brian Ortega for feathweight seems very likely to me to win, he's very much wanting to play a title match with Volkanovski again. What was their encounter last year, we saw a solid fight for twenty-five minutes. I hope we see a fight like this in this match. Yair Rodriguez has a good career, he has fought with important fighters but for me Ortega is more talented.

Just my two cents. When was the last time you saw Chandler was using his wrestling, except trying to stop take downs ? In last 10 years, he has won thanks to elite wrestling 3 times out of 14. Wrestling did not work well in a fight against Oliveira. I think Chandler prefer to fight in stance. And if he fights Fiziev, the chances of winning will be 50/50. I even think that Fiziev has more chances to knockout Chandler, than Chandler to knockout Fiziev. If they fight, Fiziev, as a master of Myai Thai, will try counter every take down attempt with knee, and with his reflexes and speed, this knee will end their fight.

If the fight will continue to be on striking those Acrobatic kicks from Yair Rodriguez are really unpredictable and he is seen sometimes capitalizing with elbows that his opponent may not see, While Brian Ortega can capitalize with those kicks and can Submit Yair Rodriguez, and because Jiu Jitsu is just normal for Brian Ortega I think it is normal for him to get Rodriguez submitted, I actually like the style of Yair Rodriguez if he can be slick and fight smartly with Ortega or if he can copy the style of Israel Adesanya he can win against Ortega, but surely the asset of Adesanya is his height that Yair Rodriguez lack, so this is an advantage for Ortega,


Those cancellations are very frustrating indeed, that is why I didn't post my picks early on and waited until late Saturday, after the fight and so I could also see the near odds before the fight, and to mostly avoid canceled fights aswell,

Brian Ortega is the favorite to win, likely Yair Rodriguez could win this if he can push those kicks for Ortega to be pressured and hang on and wait for Ortega's takedowns, to move away and kick keeping up his score this could be boring for his fans, but I think this will keep Ortega's Grappling out of the way because for this fight Ortega is very well-rounded, he knows the most basic Jui-Jitsu ever known to a fighter, but choosing from both Ortega or Rodriguez to have a huge chance for Volkanovski I'd say Brian Ortega is pretty much close,


Let's say Yair Rodriguez wins via Decision against Ortega, and there is a chance that Rodriguez can surely win if he capitalizes on his advantage, and pressure Ortega by distance away from him, a very boring fight but it could do the job in winning,

Then Enters Alexander Volkanovski, the next Yair will face, I don't see a glimpse of Yair Rodriguez having a chance against Volkanovski, his fight with Max Holloway was a war both fighters did their all, but Max was too accurate and on point, I think Yair facing Volkanovki will be a one-sided one,