Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 308. (Read 97194 times)

Maness - Nurmagomedov

Maness - has an odd of @7.20 in case of victory

Nurmagomedov - has an odd of @1.10 in case of victory, honestly this is not an odd to place a bet, it is a very low odd

Moises - Giagos

Moises - has an odd of @1.40 in case of victory, honestly this is not an odd to place a bet, it is a very low odd

Giagos - has an odd of @3.00 in case of victory

I had 3 or 4 fairly sure picks for this weekend but it was not in UFC but in PFL and Bellator MMA, I had 100% success with them this time.
For UFC I don't have any sure predictions, Nurmagomedov and Moisés should win their respective fights, but I wouldn't bet big money on them.
If you are not in a hurry maybe you should wait next weekend for Adesanya, Volkanovski and others from that fight card.
UFC Prelims starting are starting soon so you don't have much time for betting on this fight night.

I am a big fan of Shavkat Rakhmonov as he is moving up the rankings without much hype but he is a killer with the fights i have seen till now and
Neil Magny is a huge test for him. The eventual fight up we might be seeing is Shavkat Rakhmonov and Khamzat Chimaev with their undefeated streak on the line and this is the scenario i am dreaming to see with belt on the line as both are all rounded fighters who refuse to loose .

^  I think that would make a solid parlay.  It's lined at 2.52 right now which I think is just ok if you just want a little action for the event and to keep things interesting.  Moises tho..  He should win but it's hard to trust him after losing really bad to Joel Alvarez.  

Nurmagomedov should win, Rakhmonov should win and Tsarukyan should win but this one could be close.  But will still win imho.

Anyway here are the weigh ins and the fwce offs.  Nobody missed weight.

Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHXqwsGt50A

Face off
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JoxLZmrJOs

Arman Tsarukyan (156) vs Mateusz Gamrot (156)
Neil Magny (171) vs Shavkat Rakhmonov (170.5)
Alan Baudot (253) vs Josh Parisian (265.5)
Christos Giagos (156) vs Thiago Moises (155.5)
Nate Maness (135) vs Umar Nurmagomedov (136)
Chris Curtis (185.5) vs Rodolfo Vieira (185)
Tafon Nchukwi (206) vs Carlos Ulberg (204.5)
TJ Brown (145.5) vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (146)
Sergey Morozov (136) vs Raulian Paiva (136)
JP Buys (126) vs Cody Durden (126)
Mario Bautista (135.5) vs Brian Kelleher (135.5)
Vanessa Demopoulos (115.5) vs Jinh Yu Frey (115.5)

Well, my Analysis is just for others to have a slight outlook or insight on the fighters or just a guide it is your decision on whoever your pick because my prediction is just my opinion only everyone has the free will  to choose, or maybe others have a different insight than might I surely respect that, Gamrot still has a possibility in winning this and yes a ground fight might be effective against Tsarukyan,

Thiago Moises is a well-rounded fighter that is why I am rooting for him than Giagos, and I think both these fighters can be beaten by Arman Tsarukyan, the recent fight of Giagos was against Arman Tsarukyan, and Thiago Moises lost to Joek Alvarez that was defeated by Arman Tsarukyan aswell, and the fight before that, was against Islam Makhachev that we all know the caliber, but in my opinion against Christos Giagos, Thiago Moises is more well rounded,


I don't really think that Maness's ground game is inferior enough to surpass a Nurmagomedov's Dagestan way of wrestling, and I think that Khabib Nurmagomedov is backing his brother on the side so we expect a coaching Khabib on his Brother just like Makhachev,

with the other underdogs, I really don't have any idea and I don't look up their records for now, but I am on standby for potential talent, and well that is a good choice betting on round and method of winning but is not a bad choice actually, that is how good this is, you can bet multiple time on 1 match,



Yup! Rakhmonov is a beast surely Magny has some decent striking and all but I think Shavkat Rakhmonov is a hell of a fighter that pretty much fighting smartly in his last few fights, so the technicality will always maintain to Rakhmonov,

What do we think of Nate Maness' ground game? I'm thinking a decision to Umar could be on the cards, but honestly I thought that with his last fight, and he ended it real quick.

Also, if you could double down on a underdog, who would be your pick?

The reason I ask is; I'm looking to put a higher amount down this weekend, but only include 3-4 fights. I won't be betting just on wins though, thinking of during by round, and method. Unless, its a decision.

I thought that initially; that Neil has good striking, and could potentially do some damage. Then, I reviewed some tape, and he leaves himself horribly open at times. Think he might get slept.

Nice analysis, but I would risking my bet to pick the underdog on this card since I see the possibility we might see an upset. Gamrot is better on the ground rather than Tsarukyan, the reach advantages and power punch by Tsarukyan might KO'ed Gamrot, but if Gamrot force Tsarukyan to fight on the ground, Gamrot can win via submission.

I don't know why Moises listed as a favorite since his last 2 fights were lose, while Giagos only lose one fight even in the whole record he have more losses than Moises. Giagos is more aggressive fighter and if he can force Moises to fight distance, for sure he will win.

My Picks and what I think would happen in some fights on the UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot

Arman Tsarukyan VS Mateusz Gamrot

Stake odds for this fight are 1.36 for Tsarukyan while 3.20 for Gamrot, and For this fight, it can be a very close fight but for me, Arman Tsarukyan is very well-rounded, he can finish on stand-up or on the ground and a notable fight was against Islam Makhachev that it was a great fight to watch Tsarukyan switching stance on Makhachev, on the 1st round both fighters done a mistake but Makhachev really is fast to have seen that, I say Tsarukyan did a great job defending and countering Makhachev but to no extend Islam Makhachev has a better technique, but against Mateusz Gamrot I think Arman Tsurukyan has a better view with wrestling and grappling on the ground, so my pick is definitely Arman Tsarukyan,

Neil Magny VS Shavkat Rakhmonov

Stake odds for this fight are 4.20 for Magny while 1.23 for Rakhmonov, Well, I don't really don't like Neil Magny and I really don't like him either, but surely this man has good striking, ground and pound game, and has good wrestling as well, and I think this is a good chance for Shavkat Rakhmonov to test his endurance and if he can beat Magny, but for me, I think Shavkat Rakhmonov is an exception, and I surely always compares him to Khamzat Chimaev, because of their style, and from that even though Neil Magny has some advantage over the experience, I am pretty confident over Shavkat Rakhmonov, so my pick is Shavkat Rakhmonov,

Thiago Moisés VS Christos Giagos

Stake odds for this fight are 1.39 for Moises, while 3.05 for Giagos, for this fight I say Moises has better striking and can surely have a decent Wrestling as well, while his opponent Giagos may have decent stand-up, but I think Moises, can execute it perfectly if he found the right distance to shot his punches because I think Moises can sure fight smartly with technical striking, so my pick will be Thiago Moises,

Umar Nurmagomedov VS Nate Maness

Stake Odds for this fight are 7.40 for Maness while 1.09 for Nurmagomedov, clearly many see this as a onesided fight base on the odds favorite, but I think this is a good test for Umar Nurmagomedov, Nate Maness has the striking capability and got power in his punches but with Nurmagomedov, the distance will be crucial because Umar is kicking in his offense, he got a blinding speed on his kicks, but when the fight goes to the ground this could be highly advantageous for Umar Nurmagomedov, so my pick will be Umar Nurmagomedov,

Sportsbet is offering lot of options for betting on this fight, Umar win by submission with boosted odds is currently over 2.13, and decision has higher odds around 2.40.
Other good option for betting is that fight will go to distance or not, but this is three round fight so maybe Umar ends it in second round.
He usually finish fights in first or second round if they end early.
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/mma/ufc/ufc-fight-night-tsarukyan-vs-gamrot/maness-nate-vs-nurmagomedov-umar-62acc2a5ef0375be62db2371

Yeah, submission or KO at 1.66 I mean that's still pretty bad odds. My bookie isn't currently offering specifically submission, which I imagine would be around the 1.80-2.00 mark? I don't like going for submission only though, generally most fighters have a decent standard of BJJ. Especially, on the three rounders. Though, it's Umar we're talking about who has a great track record.

That's ultimately the reason I went with some of the underdogs. I do think it's going to be a night of finishes, and good fights though.

What makes me doubt betting on him is that he is coming from two lost fights and both of them with stoppage, KO and rear naked choke.
I didn't watch Christos Giagos fights but he has slight reach advantage and I think he could give hard time to his opponent.

I would not touch those odd on Umar win, but maybe some special bet would pay much better, like win by his special weapon - rear naked choke.
My hope is that Maness would perform at his best and surprise him with his longer arms reach.
Overall this is not easy fight card to predict for me at all.

Umar, and Shavkat Rakhmonov would be my favourites, but the only issue with that is the bookies know it too. The odds aren't worth it. I'd say including Umar on a multi would be a good idea, as in my mind it would be a massive shock if he did end up losing here. Shavkat on the other hand, isn't as certain for me, despite probably taking it pretty easily.

I've been impressed by what I've seen from him in his last couple of fights. Obviously, not counting the one where he got choked out very quickly . Other than that fight, even when he's losing he isn't a long way out from winning. Usually competitive. Plus, Bautista will probably be looking for the knock out, and Kelleher I think will be that tricky self that'll just be able to avoid those bombs that Bautista is known to throw.

Yup..  Moises should be better on the feet and the ground.  It's just remembering him making Joel Alvarez looking like effing  Anderson Silva out there worries me.


I feel like he's going to keep pressuring Bautista, grinding him by cage and spam take downs the whole fight.  Kelleher could get a decent amount of control time and make it really close.  And he has an over hand right that could rock Bautista.

So yeah...  Official weigh ins live.  It started a little over an hour ago.

UFC on ESPN 38:  Tsarukyan vs Gamrot Official Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlgKcPUO2Rk

Actually, I am cool with Thiago Moises, but his opponent really is intimidating, I know intimidation can not hurt anyone but don't let it go into your head, because that intimidation can surely also cause a win, for Christos Giagos but still I am going with Moises here I will put my picks tomorrow pretty much busy lately, but you got yourself a decent lottery picks there so I really wish you good luck to that,


Nice picks aswell, but unlike you, I don't have any idea about the main event I will get my picks and post them here tomorrow, but for now, I think Shavkat Rakhmonov will get this done easily, I think Rakhmonov is underrated for his opponent but not underestimating Neil Magny, but I think Magny doesn't really have what it takes to take on Rakhmonov, he is like Makhachev but a humble one, and I think he is a fighter with the same caliber as that, so many often compare the two, but for that one Rakhmanov has the advantage,

Umar Nurmagomedov will be my pick aswell, I mean even though you think that he is not champion material, this fight will be an easy one for him, and for me Umar has it takes to get even higher he just needs to take the advice of his brother Khabib, and his level of wrestling should not be taken lightly, he sure wrestles with the best so I am sure those kicks can also be deceiving to his opponent if you all know what I am talking about,

Well, I don't think I need the weigh ins for most of my predictions. Feeling confident with the underdogs this week.

Here's the predictions:

Arman Tsarukyan
Gamrot definitely has a chance here, but I think Tsarukyan will get the job done.

Shavkat Rakhmonov
Should be a relatively easy fight, don't think his opponent has what it takes. Would have to be a knock out to lose this I think.

Alan Baudot
Thiago Moisés
Umar Nurmagomedov
Rodolfo Vieira
Carlos Ulberg
TJ Brown
Raulian Paiva
Cody Durden
Brian Kelleher
Jinh Yu Frey

Kelleher fight is going to be absolutely crazy I think. His opponent going into the fight as a favourite, and probably rightfully so. I just think Kelleher can be a tricky fighter at times, and will get it done. That's probably my fight of the night there.

I got Moises at my top ticket too.  But I feel like he'll be the pie shitter of the week.  Another one could be TJ Brown if his cardio doesn't during the third round if it does reach the third.

Anyway here's my lottery ticket for the event.  Wish me luck.  Lol.

Nurmagomedov - Rakhmonov - Moises 1.90
Brown - Tskauryan - Ulberg at 7.68
Paiva - Curtis - Buys at 45
Baudot -  Frey at 195
Kelleher at 265

Took chances on Paiva and Kelleher as underdogs.  Kinda kicking myself for putting Ulberg on top of Curtis.  Dunno..  At the time I was back and forth between him and Vieira.

If I do put a bet on, it'll be a small one with most of the underdogs which have good odds. Apart from the main event, I can see most of the underdogs having a good chance. However, I might just save my money to bet against O'Malley in a couple of weeks.

I'll get my predictions out later once I've seen the weigh ins, and all that good stuff, I won't be putting a ton of research in on this one though, as I'm not overly interested. I'll be watching it, since I do think it's going to be a competitive card. We've been spoiled the last few weeks, with the fast knock outs, but I generally think this card will be more competitive, but as fun.

My early leans haven't changed all that much if at all. If I do go on to bet, I'll probably include the O'Malley fight in the accumulator despite the risk of it being cancelled, just because I honestly believe he's going to lose quite badly in that fight. Plus, good odds to go against him.

I like Moses aswell and pretty much he is the favorite here, but I have seen Martin Day has potential aswell, but not that much, surely I am just really in love with fighters that are good at kicking but I see Thiago Moses as the well-rounded fighter here,

And just like Martin Day, Umar Nurmagomedov is really obsessed with kicks and he is really excellent in doing what he loves to do, but pretty much I think he is well-rounded as well against Nate Maness, he surely can wrestle when the occasion occurs, I really love this card aswell, there are so many good picks that I will post here soon, before the anticipated fight on the UFC 276,


Shavkat Rakhmonov is my favorite fighter here as well, and surely he is one humble dude, but when he is inside the cage he will surely become a beast, but what I really love about Shavkat Rakhmonov is he tends not to rush things, and right now he is still at the ranked 15 of the Welterweight division, he just loves not rushing things, very not similar with Khamzat Chimaev that is on the move and wants to fight now even though he just finished his recent fight a week ago, and yes that will be one hell of a fight to watch Shavkat Rakhmonov VS Khamzat Chimaev, but I really don't rush in seeing that now, I want Chimaev to take the belt 1st before these two fight,

Many fans saw this as well and were also asking why the ref didn't stop the fight. It was later explained that Jiri was actually congratulating and encouraging Glover with those taps. Goddard (ref) even warned him that it's a risky game. The ref saw that he wasn't in a real danger to be submitted.

About his title defense, Jiri already stated his first priority is a Glover rematch and, if he retains the title, he'll go after Jan.

Shavkat Rakhmonov has a really good record till now. I think he will not have any problem getting the win against Neil Magny. And a really good fight for him is going to be Khamzat Chimaev. If we are talking about how he is going to eat his opponent, I think he might go for biting off his opponent's ear like Mike Tyson  


Regards

Duke