Bitcoin Forum>Economy>Economics>Speculation
Pages:
Author

Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well - page 19. (Read 62097 times)

Marbit
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 05, 2014, 05:37:18 PM
#404
Quote from: DannyElfman on August 05, 2014, 05:10:33 PM
I think it is funny that people use highly leveraged positions and let them go near forced liquidation, then due to market movements and illiquidity, get stopped and try to blame all on bitfinex.

Ever wondered why no serious trader using bitfinex ever complained?

Do you really think that? Have a good long read in the service discussion thread. Their market freeze + locking shorts in position during a rally left many traders with a very sour taste in their mouth.
DannyElfman
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 05, 2014, 05:10:33 PM
#403
I think it is funny that people use highly leveraged positions and let them go near forced liquidation, then due to market movements and illiquidity, get stopped and try to blame all on bitfinex.

Ever wondered why no serious trader using bitfinex ever complained?
Mobius
hero member
Activity: 988
Merit: 1000
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 05, 2014, 01:40:18 AM
#402
Quote from: thezerg on August 04, 2014, 02:20:47 PM
Quote from: Habeler876 on August 04, 2014, 12:13:58 PM
Quote from: Walsoraj on August 04, 2014, 11:57:08 AM
Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house. Cheesy

Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell....

Huh? No, Bitfinex is not on either side of the leverage... people offer liquidity, other people take it for leverage, Bitfinex takes some % of the interest.  But Bitfinex is "insuring" the lenders (whatever that means), so only in the case of a flash-crash you might be "playing against the house"
Bitfinex takes a cut of the interest payments and do not lend nor borrow money from/to consumers. I would seriously doubt their ability to pay out all of the money lend to customers via swaps in the event of a large crash when the price does not fully recover in the very near term. If the price were to recover then they could simply cancel all of the trades (unethical IMO) but if price losses are sustained then this would not even be an option. It is important to note however that bitcoin has seen fewer and smaller crashes recently and the crashes/declines that we did see have been relatively orderly.
thezerg
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 07:16:26 PM
#401
Quote from: Yololintian on August 04, 2014, 04:18:45 PM
Quote from: manfred on August 04, 2014, 02:47:23 PM
Quote from: Marbit on August 04, 2014, 02:27:40 PM
Quote from: thezerg on August 04, 2014, 02:20:47 PM
Quote from: Habeler876 on August 04, 2014, 12:13:58 PM
Quote from: Walsoraj on August 04, 2014, 11:57:08 AM
Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house. Cheesy

Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell....

Huh? No, Bitfinex is not on either side of the leverage... people offer liquidity, other people take it for leverage, Bitfinex takes some % of the interest.  But Bitfinex is "insuring" the lenders (whatever that means), so only in the case of a flash-crash you might be "playing against the house"

I think he's saying that Bitfinex are stop hunting and/or front running their own customers. That's my reading of it, anyway.

I wouldn't put it past them, either....
They are known for it https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7444385
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7444557
So someone got stopped out and Bitfinex is somewhat illiquid; Also there are a lot of places people might place obvious stops. This is no evidence against Bitfinex.

LOL at referencing MTC as a reliable source.  On the other hand you are right.  Every exchange has the opportunity to front run trades or harvest over leverage.  Day trading is a dangerous game and most ppl lose.
Yololintian
sr. member
Activity: 293
Merit: 250
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 04:18:45 PM
#400
Quote from: manfred on August 04, 2014, 02:47:23 PM
Quote from: Marbit on August 04, 2014, 02:27:40 PM
Quote from: thezerg on August 04, 2014, 02:20:47 PM
Quote from: Habeler876 on August 04, 2014, 12:13:58 PM
Quote from: Walsoraj on August 04, 2014, 11:57:08 AM
Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house. Cheesy

Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell....

Huh? No, Bitfinex is not on either side of the leverage... people offer liquidity, other people take it for leverage, Bitfinex takes some % of the interest.  But Bitfinex is "insuring" the lenders (whatever that means), so only in the case of a flash-crash you might be "playing against the house"

I think he's saying that Bitfinex are stop hunting and/or front running their own customers. That's my reading of it, anyway.

I wouldn't put it past them, either....
They are known for it https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7444385
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7444557
So someone got stopped out and Bitfinex is somewhat illiquid; Also there are a lot of places people might place obvious stops. This is no evidence against Bitfinex.
manfred
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1001
Energy is Wealth
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 02:47:23 PM
#399
Quote from: Marbit on August 04, 2014, 02:27:40 PM
Quote from: thezerg on August 04, 2014, 02:20:47 PM
Quote from: Habeler876 on August 04, 2014, 12:13:58 PM
Quote from: Walsoraj on August 04, 2014, 11:57:08 AM
Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house. Cheesy

Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell....

Huh? No, Bitfinex is not on either side of the leverage... people offer liquidity, other people take it for leverage, Bitfinex takes some % of the interest.  But Bitfinex is "insuring" the lenders (whatever that means), so only in the case of a flash-crash you might be "playing against the house"

I think he's saying that Bitfinex are stop hunting and/or front running their own customers. That's my reading of it, anyway.

I wouldn't put it past them, either....
They are known for it https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7444385
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7444557
Marbit
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 02:27:40 PM
#398
Quote from: thezerg on August 04, 2014, 02:20:47 PM
Quote from: Habeler876 on August 04, 2014, 12:13:58 PM
Quote from: Walsoraj on August 04, 2014, 11:57:08 AM
Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house. Cheesy

Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell....

Huh? No, Bitfinex is not on either side of the leverage... people offer liquidity, other people take it for leverage, Bitfinex takes some % of the interest.  But Bitfinex is "insuring" the lenders (whatever that means), so only in the case of a flash-crash you might be "playing against the house"

I think he's saying that Bitfinex are stop hunting and/or front running their own customers. That's my reading of it, anyway.

I wouldn't put it past them, either....
thezerg
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 02:20:47 PM
#397
Quote from: Habeler876 on August 04, 2014, 12:13:58 PM
Quote from: Walsoraj on August 04, 2014, 11:57:08 AM
Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house. Cheesy

Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell....

Huh? No, Bitfinex is not on either side of the leverage... people offer liquidity, other people take it for leverage, Bitfinex takes some % of the interest.  But Bitfinex is "insuring" the lenders (whatever that means), so only in the case of a flash-crash you might be "playing against the house"
FUR11
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
FURring bitcoin up since 1762
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 12:50:49 PM
#396
The bubble sure is big! I'm afraid that it is too big for Finex to handle it if it really should pop or cascade through the longs there!!! This seems dangerous. Maybe they won't be able to roll back the trades then anymore!
Habeler876
hero member
Activity: 624
Merit: 500
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 12:13:58 PM
#395
Quote from: Walsoraj on August 04, 2014, 11:57:08 AM
Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house. Cheesy

Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell....
ensurance982
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Trust me!
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 12:12:08 PM
#394
That bubble won't pop anytime soon. We'd need a major crash in order to wipe out those longs. Won't happen, I guess. Unless there are some catastophic news. But I'm really not that convinced that the bubble is harming anyone as of now. Do you?
twiifm
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 12:03:33 PM
#393
Quote from: 21pilot on August 04, 2014, 11:50:59 AM
Quote from: twiifm on August 04, 2014, 10:17:35 AM
Quote from: 21pilot on August 04, 2014, 09:36:15 AM
Quote from: twiifm on August 04, 2014, 08:20:34 AM
Quote from: gizmoh on August 04, 2014, 02:23:43 AM
Quote from: twiifm on August 04, 2014, 12:38:21 AM
Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?

the best indicator for an assessment of the risk is probably the Total sum of active swaps.
You can find this information on:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

(currently ~29.7 million $)


So wait for swap sum to go down and interest go up?  Whats the ideal interest?

the major problem everyone is discussing in this thread is that the swap volume has spiked up to 31 million $ at peak, but BTC
price has stayed in a sideways market. therefore all the long positions probably aren´t profitable and have to be closed at one
point in the future if BTC price doesn´t rise.

this could lead to a flash crash at bitfinex, because the first margin calls could trigger additional margin calls...



I get that.  You are saying if these traders get margin called and the price crashes I might not be able to get my money back.

My question was more direct.  Just at what swap sum is acceptable risk?  And whats a good interest rate?  I know its speculation.  Just curious what the people who have experience with this thinks
Walsoraj
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Ultranode
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 11:57:08 AM
#392
Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?
21pilot
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 11:50:59 AM
#391
Quote from: twiifm on August 04, 2014, 10:17:35 AM
Quote from: 21pilot on August 04, 2014, 09:36:15 AM
Quote from: twiifm on August 04, 2014, 08:20:34 AM
Quote from: gizmoh on August 04, 2014, 02:23:43 AM
Quote from: twiifm on August 04, 2014, 12:38:21 AM
Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?

the best indicator for an assessment of the risk is probably the Total sum of active swaps.
You can find this information on:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

(currently ~29.7 million $)


So wait for swap sum to go down and interest go up?  Whats the ideal interest?

the major problem everyone is discussing in this thread is that the swap volume has spiked up to 31 million $ at peak, but BTC
price has stayed in a sideways market. therefore all the long positions probably aren´t profitable and have to be closed at one
point in the future if BTC price doesn´t rise.

this could lead to a flash crash at bitfinex, because the first margin calls could trigger additional margin calls...

twiifm
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 10:17:35 AM
#390
Quote from: 21pilot on August 04, 2014, 09:36:15 AM
Quote from: twiifm on August 04, 2014, 08:20:34 AM
Quote from: gizmoh on August 04, 2014, 02:23:43 AM
Quote from: twiifm on August 04, 2014, 12:38:21 AM
Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?

the best indicator for an assessment of the risk is probably the Total sum of active swaps.
You can find this information on:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

(currently ~29.7 million $)


So wait for swap sum to go down and interest go up?  Whats the ideal interest?
21pilot
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 09:36:15 AM
#389
Quote from: twiifm on August 04, 2014, 08:20:34 AM
Quote from: gizmoh on August 04, 2014, 02:23:43 AM
Quote from: twiifm on August 04, 2014, 12:38:21 AM
Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?

the best indicator for an assessment of the risk is probably the Total sum of active swaps.
You can find this information on:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

(currently ~29.7 million $)
twiifm
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 08:20:34 AM
#388
Quote from: gizmoh on August 04, 2014, 02:23:43 AM
Quote from: twiifm on August 04, 2014, 12:38:21 AM
Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?
Dalmar
hero member
Activity: 1106
Merit: 500
Life is short, practice empathy in your life
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 05:35:03 AM
#387
Quote from: BitBits on August 04, 2014, 04:25:40 AM
I really think people should stop talking about trades roll back at Bitfinex as a possibility.
It happened once, it was justified and it is just not going to happen again.  For the absolutely extreme situation there will most likely be trading halt, but no roll backs.

It depends where the margin cascade will stop at. If it will go to double or single digits it will impact their future revenues as liquidity providers get scared away. It's in their best interest to calm them, unlike BTC-e where margin liquidity is provided in-house..
Yololintian
sr. member
Activity: 293
Merit: 250
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 04:39:19 AM
#386
Quote from: BitBits on August 04, 2014, 04:25:40 AM
I really think people should stop talking about trades roll back at Bitfinex as a possibility.
It happened once, it was justified and it is just not going to happen again.  For the absolutely extreme situation there will most likely be trading halt, but no roll backs.
I hope so.
BitBits
full member
Activity: 144
Merit: 100
Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
August 04, 2014, 04:25:40 AM
#385
I really think people should stop talking about trades roll back at Bitfinex as a possibility.
It happened once, it was justified and it is just not going to happen again.  For the absolutely extreme situation there will most likely be trading halt, but no roll backs.
Pages:
Bitcoin Forum>Economy>Economics>Speculation
Jump to: