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Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well - page 22. (Read 62097 times)

full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Let's take a minute and think of all those longs on leverage that have been wiped out since last week! ;(

Probably none or very close to none on Bitfinex.  The leverage ratio is low. The swaps are declining because 1) the rules changes and made the leverage smaller and 2) BTC price was flat for a very long time and has now started declining.

Which rules have changed? I haven't exactly followed the swaps market there too closely. The credit bubble is still large and going strong!

Leverage ratio reduced. Can't take out as much. However, as of this week, Power500 (BTC-e) was offering 16:1 so lord only knows what the gamblers are doing or how high up to their eyeballs in leverage they really are. That said, I think the main game is Bitfinex and those guys have to be sweating bullets right now.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Let's take a minute and think of all those longs on leverage that have been wiped out since last week! ;(

Probably none or very close to none on Bitfinex.  The leverage ratio is low. The swaps are declining because 1) the rules changes and made the leverage smaller and 2) BTC price was flat for a very long time and has now started declining.

Which rules have changed? I haven't exactly followed the swaps market there too closely. The credit bubble is still large and going strong!
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Let's take a minute and think of all those longs on leverage that have been wiped out since last week! ;(

Probably none or very close to none on Bitfinex.  The leverage ratio is low. The swaps are declining because 1) the rules changes and made the leverage smaller and 2) BTC price was flat for a very long time and has now started declining.

I think there's been some roll overs. Also, the new rules hitting at the same time as a drop just puts more pressure on those who were overleveraged, as a practical matter, in the first place. Does it not?
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
today nevertheless had surprisingly good news for BTC in general:
http://www.coindesk.com/wikipedia-now-accepts-bitcoin-donations/

We need some other major brands to accept BTC and maybe we can
increase the life span of the long positions  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1868
Merit: 1023
Let's take a minute and think of all those longs on leverage that have been wiped out since last week! ;(

Probably none or very close to none on Bitfinex.  The leverage ratio is low. The swaps are declining because 1) the rules changes and made the leverage smaller and 2) BTC price was flat for a very long time and has now started declining.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Let's take a minute and think of all those longs on leverage that have been wiped out since last week! ;(

S--- is sad. People have bills to pay and anybody gambling that hard probably doesn't have a lot of money to begin with (otherwise why the hell are they playing on credit). This is the bad part of markets, generally. Notice how we didn't have this problem a couple weeks ago until Wall Street came in?

Well there's a perfect explanation why those people are taking borrowed money to invest gamble: greed! Even if they had a lot of money, they'd just want more and more!s
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Let's take a minute and think of all those longs on leverage that have been wiped out since last week! ;(

S--- is sad. People have bills to pay and anybody gambling that hard probably doesn't have a lot of money to begin with (otherwise why the hell are they playing on credit). This is the bad part of markets, generally. Notice how we didn't have this problem a couple weeks ago until Wall Street came in?
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
FURring bitcoin up since 1762
Let's take a minute and think of all those longs on leverage that have been wiped out since last week! ;(
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Is this the massacre of the leveraged longs?


Partially. Market manipulation is the impetus and the leveraged longs are getting eaten up in the process. There is still a lot more of Rome left to burn... there is over $29 million in leverage still on the board at Bitfinex. Figuring this number will come down to $15 to $20 million... there is still soo much left to burn (and I suspect the number is still there because a lot of the longs have doubled up unwilling to take their loss).
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
Is this the massacre of the leveraged longs?
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Trust me!
My guess is that by some time in September outstanding swaps will be down from 30 to 15 mil and rates will be below 0.1%. That's the point at which another strong price rise may occur 😊 But until then it will be a slow slide down to ~ USD 500 as the post-May leveraged longs give up.

Any conjecture at which point a cascading long-burn on Finex may occur? I mean we went down quite a bit already but the longs are still holding and the bubble barely deflated.

Needs to go under 500 so it can start to cascade.

You think? Hmmm yeah, could be true. I really don't see us going back to 500 already. Things aren't exactly great, but 500 is still some BTC away!
legendary
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1000
My guess is that by some time in September outstanding swaps will be down from 30 to 15 mil and rates will be below 0.1%. That's the point at which another strong price rise may occur 😊 But until then it will be a slow slide down to ~ USD 500 as the post-May leveraged longs give up.

Any conjecture at which point a cascading long-burn on Finex may occur? I mean we went down quite a bit already but the longs are still holding and the bubble barely deflated.

Needs to go under 500 so it can start to cascade.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Trust me!
My guess is that by some time in September outstanding swaps will be down from 30 to 15 mil and rates will be below 0.1%. That's the point at which another strong price rise may occur 😊 But until then it will be a slow slide down to ~ USD 500 as the post-May leveraged longs give up.

Any conjecture at which point a cascading long-burn on Finex may occur? I mean we went down quite a bit already but the longs are still holding and the bubble barely deflated.
hero member
Activity: 552
Merit: 501
My guess is that by some time in September outstanding swaps will be down from 30 to 15 mil and rates will be below 0.1%. That's the point at which another strong price rise may occur 😊 But until then it will be a slow slide down to ~ USD 500 as the post-May leveraged longs give up.
legendary
Activity: 1511
Merit: 1072
quack
Interest rates are falling rapidly. Down from 0.16% mid month to below 0.13% today.

This is good thing. The usd/btc is dropping because people are quitting their >$620 opened long positions?
hero member
Activity: 552
Merit: 501
Interest rates are falling rapidly. Down from 0.16% mid month to below 0.13% today.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).

i agree that there are a lot of straight up gamblers trading on leverage right now. however, i think many are already fully leveraged -- no more doubling down for them. Tongue

Going on full leverage is russian roulette these days! We could very well see another flash crash or two. I think many of those 'traders' will be wiped out by such an event. Phew... hard to fathom!

There have already been many traders wiped out over the past month or so. Definitely those were margin calls that dropped price $20 to ~ $520 (with zero sells following).

I don't understand why bulls are leveraging long right now. The bubble predictions already failed. Use leverage to buy the bounce on a deep flash crash, or on a very strong breakout.

Leveraging long in a slowly descending sideways market? Bottom fishing like that will get you killed.

This. The thought is... well, I missed the bottom the last time, but it can only fall so much and the price is more appealing at a lower cut so unless it is going to fall forever then we'll make it back. It's the same rationale that would lead my father to double up on bets at the horse track in the hopes of "recouping" his losses. There was a lot of going to sleep on an empty stomach in those days.

Anyhow, they might get saved in the near term if there are enough big players entering for ETFs. At the same time, I highly suspect those ETFs are playing a hand in manipulating the market so that they can get in cheap -- I would be somewhat surprised if they aren't trying to play the role of the house in this market.

Good luck to all. Play your instincts, look towards, the future, hedge and minimize costs, and have fun... I am firmly of the belief that the best way to win is to let the crazies knock themselves off.
hero member
Activity: 624
Merit: 500
I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).

i agree that there are a lot of straight up gamblers trading on leverage right now. however, i think many are already fully leveraged -- no more doubling down for them. Tongue

Going on full leverage is russian roulette these days! We could very well see another flash crash or two. I think many of those 'traders' will be wiped out by such an event. Phew... hard to fathom!

There have already been many traders wiped out over the past month or so. Definitely those were margin calls that dropped price $20 to ~ $520 (with zero sells following).

I don't understand why bulls are leveraging long right now. The bubble predictions already failed. Use leverage to buy the bounce on a deep flash crash, or on a very strong breakout.

Leveraging long in a slowly descending sideways market? Bottom fishing like that will get you killed.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).

i agree that there are a lot of straight up gamblers trading on leverage right now. however, i think many are already fully leveraged -- no more doubling down for them. Tongue

Going on full leverage is russian roulette these days! We could very well see another flash crash or two. I think many of those 'traders' will be wiped out by such an event. Phew... hard to fathom!
sr. member
Activity: 479
Merit: 500
I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).

i agree that there are a lot of straight up gamblers trading on leverage right now. however, i think many are already fully leveraged -- no more doubling down for them. Tongue
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