sooo, i was a bit relieved to see USD swaps going down on the fall (sometimes we have seen the opposite), but now i see that bulls are pushing swaps up to $30 million again.... 
29,854,318.41 USD at the moment.
29,854,318.41 USD at the moment.
The small flash drop the other day doesn't seem to have much effect on the swaps, just a small valley. On the other hand, we seem to be going down for 10 days now - which doesn't look like a bubble collapsing, but rather a small and gradual retreat. But I guess it is still too early to tell if this continues.
I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).
So there's some kind of Martingale strategy when it comes to (leveraged) trading? Ha! Awesome... Umm but yeah, they could end up getting burned. But how would this affect us (apart from Finex maybe collapsing and the trades being reversed)?
Assuming most if not all people on here are non-whales, it just means that cheap coins could be coming to town (not 100% prediction, maybe not even 50-50... but good enough odds to have the idea in your back pocket). Even if trades get reversed, a flash crash (or even a slow drain) will depress prices beyond a normal level. Also, other exchanges might not roll back their trades (although they might also not fall as much). So, that's mostly how I am playing my hand... half in bitcoin, half in fiat with the fiat ready to be pushed into bitcoin if the price dips.
Am I just taking trading advice from a Jr. Member called 'Newbie1022'?
But yeah, it's an interesting view. You may be right with that.Meh, I am either right or I am wrong without regard to experience or status. The idea is simply a hedge with some upside. It amounts to a bet on volatility. If the price goes up, I win. If the price goes down substantially, I win. If the price stays flat and goes down slightly then I lose slightly. I'm not really a gambler so I look for situations where the odds are stacked in my favor. The way the order book reads, it seems like traders are treating a major event as a 100 or 1000 to 1 type of event whereas I think it is about a 5 or 10 to 1 event sometime within the next three weeks. I also feel much more comfortable with this play than a traditional short because, frankly, I am a Newbie... I lack the ability to do proper technical analysis to make those bets intelligently and I know it. =D
