This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well - page 7.

RobertDJ

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Quote from: molecular on November 13, 2014, 01:24:00 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: RobertDJ on November 13, 2014, 12:05:03 AM

Quote from: MOB on November 12, 2014, 11:59:02 PM

Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?

It could very well be a short squeeze as people with short positions have been forced to cover their position. Arbitrage will likely cause the difference in price to decline

I agree, short squeeze related. I think arbitrage will reduce the difference, but Bitfinex has been really leading this really, and I don't see an end in sight because short interest appears to still be the same.

appears to me the rally is china-led.

bitfinex is just able to follow faster due to the USD swap market.

China led? Do you have any evidence to support this?

It appears that bitfinex may actually be leading the rally as it's price is above that of other exchanges

molecular

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: RobertDJ on November 13, 2014, 12:05:03 AM

Quote from: MOB on November 12, 2014, 11:59:02 PM

Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?

It could very well be a short squeeze as people with short positions have been forced to cover their position. Arbitrage will likely cause the difference in price to decline

I agree, short squeeze related. I think arbitrage will reduce the difference, but Bitfinex has been really leading this really, and I don't see an end in sight because short interest appears to still be the same.

appears to me the rally is china-led.

bitfinex is just able to follow faster due to the USD swap market.

fewcoins

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Short interest is the same due to margin calls... The sell off will resume before the weekend, I am opening shorts, all long positions closed.

RobertDJ

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Quote from: MOB on November 12, 2014, 11:59:02 PM

Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?

It could very well be a short squeeze as people with short positions have been forced to cover their position. Arbitrage will likely cause the difference in price to decline

MOB

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Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?

chriswilmer

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Where do we stand now regarding shorts?

FattyMcButterpants

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Quote from: RoadTrain on November 02, 2014, 02:13:06 PM

Quote from: FattyMcButterpants on November 02, 2014, 12:48:16 PM

Quote from: RoadTrain on November 02, 2014, 10:22:03 AM

Quote from: FattyMcButterpants on November 01, 2014, 11:51:47 PM

Quote from: RoadTrain on October 30, 2014, 03:24:50 PM

Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.

This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position

Any squeeze usually happens only after a major move. So, for a short squeeze we must see a significant move up. But what's important is that the larger the amount of shorts, the more dramatic will be the move.

Well, there is another possible, but unlikely way that the shorts could get squeezed: if people who hold long positions (and lend out their bitcoin) were to suddenly stop lending out their bitcoin and withdraw their money to a wallet they control then bitfinex would need to force people who are short bitcoin to cover their short position. This could potentially be caused by a competing exchange (that offers leverage or not) to fail and/or run away with depositor's money.

Yep, that's possible, but it's an event that's very hard to predict.

Another possible situation where you can get squeezed (also unlikely) is a long sideways trading that doesn't result in any significant price movement. As you're paying to maintain your position, you can run out of margin (especially if rates go to far up).

If prices remain sideways for a long time then people will likely naturally close their positions over time (or close only a portion of their position when their margin is too "low").

I would say that it would be likely that one or more of the chinese exchanges will likely implode in the simi-near future as they are likely running some kind of scam (I think they will likely eventually run with customer money). This could potentially cause the kind of short squeeze described above.

I am curious to see any kind of data on the swaps from right after gox imploded

RoadTrain

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Quote from: FattyMcButterpants on November 02, 2014, 12:48:16 PM

Quote from: RoadTrain on November 02, 2014, 10:22:03 AM

Quote from: FattyMcButterpants on November 01, 2014, 11:51:47 PM

Quote from: RoadTrain on October 30, 2014, 03:24:50 PM

Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.

This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position

Any squeeze usually happens only after a major move. So, for a short squeeze we must see a significant move up. But what's important is that the larger the amount of shorts, the more dramatic will be the move.

Well, there is another possible, but unlikely way that the shorts could get squeezed: if people who hold long positions (and lend out their bitcoin) were to suddenly stop lending out their bitcoin and withdraw their money to a wallet they control then bitfinex would need to force people who are short bitcoin to cover their short position. This could potentially be caused by a competing exchange (that offers leverage or not) to fail and/or run away with depositor's money.

Yep, that's possible, but it's an event that's very hard to predict.

Another possible situation where you can get squeezed (also unlikely) is a long sideways trading that doesn't result in any significant price movement. As you're paying to maintain your position, you can run out of margin (especially if rates go to far up).

FattyMcButterpants

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Quote from: RoadTrain on November 02, 2014, 10:22:03 AM

Quote from: FattyMcButterpants on November 01, 2014, 11:51:47 PM

Quote from: RoadTrain on October 30, 2014, 03:24:50 PM

Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.

This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position

Any squeeze usually happens only after a major move. So, for a short squeeze we must see a significant move up. But what's important is that the larger the amount of shorts, the more dramatic will be the move.

Well, there is another possible, but unlikely way that the shorts could get squeezed: if people who hold long positions (and lend out their bitcoin) were to suddenly stop lending out their bitcoin and withdraw their money to a wallet they control then bitfinex would need to force people who are short bitcoin to cover their short position. This could potentially be caused by a competing exchange (that offers leverage or not) to fail and/or run away with depositor's money.

leezay

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SWISSREALCOIN - FIRST REAL ESTATE CRYPTO TOKEN

Quote from: Hunyadi on November 02, 2014, 11:32:23 AM

Quote from: Hunyadi on October 30, 2014, 03:42:21 PM

Quote from: Hunyadi on October 30, 2014, 03:15:29 PM

Total sum of active swaps
BTC 11,784.20 BTC

BTC 12,164.61 BTC Undecided

BTC 13,742.21 BTC

Sound more like someone is trying to manipulate btc swap rate.

Hunyadi

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☑ ♟ ☐ ♚

Quote from: Hunyadi on October 30, 2014, 03:42:21 PM

Quote from: Hunyadi on October 30, 2014, 03:15:29 PM

Total sum of active swaps
BTC 11,784.20 BTC

BTC 12,164.61 BTC Undecided

BTC 13,742.21 BTC

RoadTrain

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Quote from: FattyMcButterpants on November 01, 2014, 11:51:47 PM

Quote from: RoadTrain on October 30, 2014, 03:24:50 PM

Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.

This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position

Any squeeze usually happens only after a major move. So, for a short squeeze we must see a significant move up. But what's important is that the larger the amount of shorts, the more dramatic will be the move.

FattyMcButterpants

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Quote from: RoadTrain on October 30, 2014, 03:24:50 PM

Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.

This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position

Yololintian

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shorts closed, longs opened and.... were almost back to where we started ($335).

Hunyadi

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Quote from: Hunyadi on October 30, 2014, 03:15:29 PM

Total sum of active swaps
BTC 11,784.20 BTC

BTC 12,164.61 BTC Undecided

RoadTrain

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Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.

Hunyadi

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☑ ♟ ☐ ♚

Total sum of active swaps
BTC 11,784.20 BTC

BitBits

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Quote from: N12 on October 26, 2014, 03:23:34 AM

Total sum of active swaps
16,281.89 BTC

Holy shit.

It is right now at 18.5K and it spiked to 20K earlier.

BUT, comparatively speaking this is not that much. It is about 6.5 mln in swaps of shorts vs. currently 22.5 mln in longs. This is far from equal, but things indeed seem to be getting "there" (and healthier).
Moreover, I noticed that when market dictates, shorts are a lot more "flexible" in liquidating their positions than "to da moon people" (as someone else put it). So, in order for short squeeze to happen in the manner and scale the longs were squeezed previously, the borrowed BTC value probably should get to a much, much higher values.

windjc

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Quote from: ask on October 27, 2014, 02:02:22 AM

Quote from: RoadTrain on October 27, 2014, 01:48:50 AM

If I were a shorter I'd be scared as hell right now.

Couldn't it be some kind of manipulation? I mean, funds are borrowed, but not used to short yet.

It could be a manipulation. It takes less risk to borrow and to pay only interests instead to open short position. If borrower had intentions to short, he would already done that. But he is aware of the risk so he tries to make bearish sentiment again to close his existing short position.

Keep telling yourself that.

Heard the same theories when longs were at 200%+ swap.

Anything to avoid obvious truth

CoolStoryBro

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Speaking of manipulation, let's assume that this WhaleMan using these 10k swaps as manipulation tool and not actually used it for dumping,

Then, based on the swap graphs, my wild assumption that his average rate is around 0.11%
then we can see how much it costs for that whale to keep up with his manipulation game:

10 000*0.0011 = 11 BTC / day = around 3,9 kUSD /day

Just saying. It's not that super costly for him, considering he need to keep it only 1-3 days.

Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well - page 7. (Read 62097 times)